Www.anima.coop FDI trends in the South Mediterranean countries Euromed Invest Academy Emmanuel Noutary, General Delegate ANIMA Investment Network Belgrade,

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FDI trends in the South Mediterranean countriesEuromed Invest Academy

Emmanuel Noutary, General DelegateANIMA Investment NetworkBelgrade, 24 March 2015

March 2015 © ANIMA 2015 2

Real time information www.anima.coop/mipo (database)

6.500+ FDI recorded 2.000+ Business partnerships

11 countries monitored

4 quarterly trend releases

Used for country benchmarking, economic monitoring,business prospecting, media analysis and research papers

Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia, TurkeyProjects announced since 2003…

25 qualification criteria: sector, type of company, target and origin country, amounts involved, jobs created, etc.

1 annual report

Mediterranean Investment and Partnership Observatory (ANIMA – MIPO)

The FDI recoveryis still awaited

FDI announced in the MED region 2003-2013

March 2015 © ANIMA 2015 4

The region still suffers from the crisis second round effectsA certain resilience in 2011 and 2012 but a drop in number of projects (-30%)A switch of FDI project type in 2013 (larger) to be monitored

Oiuiouoiuoiuouo Iouiooiuoiuouoiu

iuiouoiuoiuoiuoiuouo

9 90011 660

35 490

64 461

52 259

37 795

26 41334 781

27 506

37 41129 730

249306

626

763786 799

566

840

671 646

454

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Nom

bre

de p

roje

ts

Flux

d'ID

E

Flux d'IDE brut ANIMA (M€) Flux d'IDE net ANIMA (M€) Nombre de projets

FDI announced by country 2003-2012

March 2015 © ANIMA 2015 5

1 519

4 840

7 094

121751

1 300

7 577

34637

5 857

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Algérie Egypte Israël Jordanie Liban Libye Maroc Palestine Syrie Tunisie Turquie

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

in M€ source ANIMA-MIPO

FDI dominated by 5 sectors

March 2015 © ANIMA 2015 6

Investors favoured rent than industry projects

145

769

1 076

848

233

1 385

1 611

2 667

2 879

3 586

5 190

3 834

7 081

5 905

8 989

8 003

2 960

8 687

14 612

5 448

3 268

9 881

13 137

34 871

19 778

24

60

23

582

938

275

493

846

872

47

767

215

627

23

2 235

4 994

1 914

164

6 811

13 075

17 624

17 791

14 457

30 156

13

71

696

979

10

1 792

1 275

845

702

371

1 389

507

1 523

471

390

2 679

2 555

33

9 050

5 691

6 848

17 211

5 492

24 961

Ameublement, maison

Ingénierie, conseil

Biotechnologies

Aéronautique, rail, marine

Textile, luxe

Electronique grand public

Eau, environnement et …

Métallurgie

Transport, logistique

Médicaments

Machines, mécanique

Autre ou non spécifié

Equipements technologiques

Automobile

Composants électroniques

Distribution, commerce

Chimie, plasturgie, engrais

Agro-alimentaire

Logiciels, informatique

Tourisme, restauration

Ciment, verre, matériaux

BTP, immobilier

Télécommunications, internet

Banque, assurance

Energie

Maghreb Machreck Autres MED

A more cautious approach

A switch of behavious favoured by the crisis

March 2015 © ANIMA 2015 8

Partnerships and JV leave more room for value captation by MED countries

249 306626 763 786 799

566840

671 646454

37 90

108127 153 206

295

519

383 519

294

0

500

1 000

1 500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Partnership

FDI

76% 65%46% 56% 53% 53% 54% 53% 51% 48% 46%

24% 35%54% 44% 47% 47% 46% 47% 49% 52% 54%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Partial investment (brownfield, JV, partial acquisition, concession)

Global investment (greenfield, subsidiary, full acquisition)

A problem of spilloversand inclusiveness

The unbalanced territorial development of FDI

March 2015 © ANIMA 2015 11

A low job efficiency of the sectors providing FDI

March 2015 © ANIMA 2015 12

Top 5 FDI sectors (50% of FDI 2003-2012): Energy, Public Works, Cement, Bank, Tourism

Sources: ANIMA MIPO

Job efficiency ratio by FDI sector in the MED-11 countries

EU investment isfar below its potential

Europe n°2 for the second consecutive year

March 2015 © ANIMA 2015 14

Europe = 29% of FDI amounts in 2013 compared to 45% until 2011: lowest year of the last decadeGulf countries take the lead (37% of invested amounts)

North America stable = 20%

BRICs are volatile = 12,5% in 2013 Intra-MED FDI hardly exist

4 590 7 127

16 296 16 625

24 94018 700

13 94417 113

12 771 10 078 8 7051 843

2 009

6 749

19 316

14 928

8 589

6 2623 835

2 497 8 777 11 125

3 071

3 215

193

1 073

3 940

5 7393 595

5 656

2014

8 523

5 826

10 9453 718

1 654

7 099

20 157

5 897

4 769

4 040

4 992

5 896

7 151

5 989

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

USA-Canada

Autres pays

MED-11

Golfe

Europe

EU investors: still numerous but small projects

March 2015 © ANIMA 2015 15

Europe = still 40% of announced FDI in 2012 in number of projects, but the European leadership is falteringGulf projects are €182m in average (compared to €65m for all project in average, and EU and US projects are €46-48m in average)

151173

319339

378 377

305

391

311294

186

81

158 151

74

103

6176

63

3647

124

138

136

13698

203 201

150

123

63

7681

83 8772

91

61

14 1839

52 54 5231

56

26 35210

100

200

300

400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Europe

Golfe

USA-Canada

Autres pays

MED-11

… but EU FDI projects have more spillovers (1)

March 2015 © ANIMA 2015 16

European FDI projects create more jobs by €million invested

Number of jobs created by million Euros invested, by region of origin and by type of company (Source: ANIMA-MIPO 2003-2013)

SME Major Co.Transnational

Co. Fund Average

Europe 3.5 6.3 1.8 0.4 2.7

MED-11 7.3 2.6 1.7 1.6 2.5

Gulf 0.5 2.4 2.4 0.4 2.1Other countries 2.6 2.8 1.8 2.2 2.0

USA-Canada 0.8 0.3 1.6 0.3 1.1

Average 2.4 3.1 1.9 0.5 2.2

EU FDI projects have more spillovers (2)

March 2015 © ANIMA 2015 17

... and they have a greater contribution to economic diversification: European companies are the top investors in most of the strategic sectors for the MED countries

79%

57% 59%65%

33%

57%

43%

58% 58%

13%

15% 9%

19%

56% 10%

28%

22%

8%

5%

7%

26%

5%

7%

3%

13%

12%

9%

3%

15%

1% 9%2%

20%

5%

5%

21%

0%7% 5% 3% 2%

9% 10%3% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Aeronautics Agribusiness Automotives Consulting Software Distribution Drugs Mechanics Transport & logistics

MED-11

Gulf

Other countries

USA-Canada

Europe

March 2015 18

EU present the larger potential for partnership

© ANIMA 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

Enseignes, magasins, franchise

Accord de développement

Partenariat technologique

Partenariat commercial

Contrat de gestion

Bureau de représentation

Thank you for your attention

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Emmanuel [email protected]