Impact of Transportation Impact of Transportation Demand Management Policies Demand Management Policies on Green House Gas on Green House Gas Emissions: Emissions: A Modeling Approach A Modeling Approach Wu Sun Wu Sun Joaquin Ortega Joaquin Ortega Rick Curry Rick Curry San Diego Association of Governments San Diego Association of Governments May 18 May 18 th th , 2009 , 2009 12 12 th th TRB Transportation Planning Application TRB Transportation Planning Application Conference Conference
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Wu Sun Joaquin Ortega Rick Curry San Diego Association of Governments May 18 th , 2009
Impact of Transportation Demand Management Policies on Green House Gas Emissions: A Modeling Approach. Wu Sun Joaquin Ortega Rick Curry San Diego Association of Governments May 18 th , 2009 12 th TRB Transportation Planning Application Conference. Introduction. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Impact of Transportation Demand Impact of Transportation Demand Management Policies on Green Management Policies on Green
House Gas Emissions: House Gas Emissions: A Modeling ApproachA Modeling Approach
Wu SunWu SunJoaquin OrtegaJoaquin Ortega
Rick CurryRick CurrySan Diego Association of GovernmentsSan Diego Association of Governments
IntroductionIntroductionEnergy and climate change are on top of federal, state and local Energy and climate change are on top of federal, state and local government’s political and economic agendagovernment’s political and economic agenda
California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32): reduce California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32): reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.
California Senate Bill 375: Air Resources Board (ARB) will establish California Senate Bill 375: Air Resources Board (ARB) will establish mandatory reduction targets for GHG emissions from passenger cars and mandatory reduction targets for GHG emissions from passenger cars and light-trucks for years 2020 and 2035.light-trucks for years 2020 and 2035.
California Assembly Bill 1493: enforced California vehicle emission California Assembly Bill 1493: enforced California vehicle emission standards, allows California to enact and enforce emission standards to standards, allows California to enact and enforce emission standards to reduce GHG emissions.reduce GHG emissions.
Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS): requires fuel providers to reduce the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS): requires fuel providers to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels sold in the state by 10% by 2020 carbon intensity of transportation fuels sold in the state by 10% by 2020
Introduction (Continued)Introduction (Continued)
Introduction (Continued)Introduction (Continued)
San Diego County emitted 34 MMT of CO2 in San Diego County emitted 34 MMT of CO2 in 2006, compared with 29 MMT in 1990, an 18% 2006, compared with 29 MMT in 1990, an 18% increase over 1990 levelsincrease over 1990 levels
By 2020, under a business-as-usual scenario, By 2020, under a business-as-usual scenario, regional GHG emissions are expected to be 43 regional GHG emissions are expected to be 43 MMT CO2.MMT CO2.
In 2006, emissions from transportation sector In 2006, emissions from transportation sector represented 46% of total GHG emissions in San represented 46% of total GHG emissions in San Diego County.Diego County.
Introduction (Continued)Introduction (Continued)
.Rail, 1%
Waste, 2%
Off-Road Equipment and Vehicels, 4%
Other Fuels/Other, 4%
Industrial Processes and Products, 5%
Civil Aviation, 5%
Natural Gas End Uses, 9%
Electricity, 25%
On-Road Transportation, 46%
Agriculture/Forestry/Land Use, 2%
Water-Borne Navigation, 0.40%
.
SANDAG Travel Forecasting ModelSANDAG Travel Forecasting Model
4-step model4-step model 4605 zones4605 zones 3 time of day periods3 time of day periods 10 trip purposes10 trip purposes nested mode choice structurenested mode choice structure trip generation depends on land use inputs trip generation depends on land use inputs TransCAD platformTransCAD platform
Activity-based model (ABM)Activity-based model (ABM) DisaggregateDisaggregate Behaviorally realisticBehaviorally realistic Household socio-demographic attributesHousehold socio-demographic attributes
Emission Inventories Calculation Emission Inventories Calculation for Vehiclesfor Vehicles
Emfac2007: the latest emission inventory model Emfac2007: the latest emission inventory model developed by the California Air Resources Board developed by the California Air Resources Board (CARB)(CARB)
SANDAG 4-step model produce an input file to SANDAG 4-step model produce an input file to Emfac2007Emfac2007
Low Carbon Land Use with Enhanced TransitLow Carbon Land Use with Enhanced Transit
Individually test the 4 separate TDM Individually test the 4 separate TDM componentscomponents
Low Carbon Land Use, Enhanced Transit, and Low Carbon Land Use, Enhanced Transit, and all TDM components combined.all TDM components combined.
Low Carbon Land Use GrowthLow Carbon Land Use Growth
San Diego Region Transportation San Diego Region Transportation Emission TargetsEmission Targets
Through the SB 375 process, ARB will establish Through the SB 375 process, ARB will establish mandatory reduction targets for GHG emissions mandatory reduction targets for GHG emissions from passenger cars and light-trucks for years from passenger cars and light-trucks for years 2020 and 2035.2020 and 2035.
Estimated targets for modeling purposes:Estimated targets for modeling purposes: 1990: 12.5 MMT CO21990: 12.5 MMT CO2 2020 Target: 12.5 MMT CO22020 Target: 12.5 MMT CO2 2050 Target: 2.5 MMT CO22050 Target: 2.5 MMT CO2 Interpolated 2030 Target: 9.13 MMT CO2Interpolated 2030 Target: 9.13 MMT CO2 2030 Business-as Usual: 19.9 MMT CO22030 Business-as Usual: 19.9 MMT CO2
Increase In Parking CostsIncrease In Parking Costs
Modeling ApproachModeling Approach
Objective: modify 4-step model to evaluate impact of Objective: modify 4-step model to evaluate impact of land use, network, and TDM policies. land use, network, and TDM policies. Trip generationTrip generation
Low carbon land use growthLow carbon land use growth TelecommutingTelecommuting
Trip distributionTrip distribution Parking pricing: destination zone parking rateParking pricing: destination zone parking rate Reduced speed limitReduced speed limit
Mode choiceMode choice Goal: shift trips from auto modes to transit modesGoal: shift trips from auto modes to transit modes Mode choice structureMode choice structure Auto mode utility function Auto mode utility function
Auto Mode Utility FunctionAuto Mode Utility Function
where:where: m=modem=mode p=trip purposep=trip purpose i=income groupi=income group t=time periodt=time period auu = auto utility by mode, prupose, and income groupauu = auto utility by mode, prupose, and income group auivt = auto in-vehicle travel time between zones by mode and time periodauivt = auto in-vehicle travel time between zones by mode and time period tcoef = time coefficient by type, purpose and income grouptcoef = time coefficient by type, purpose and income group termp = terminal time at production endtermp = terminal time at production end terma = terminal time at attraction endterma = terminal time at attraction end pcost = parking cost at attraction end by purposepcost = parking cost at attraction end by purpose toll = toll facility cost by mode and time periodtoll = toll facility cost by mode and time period audist = auto distance between zones by mode and time periodaudist = auto distance between zones by mode and time period ccoef= cost coefficient by purpose and income groupccoef= cost coefficient by purpose and income group cpm = cost per mile to operate an automobilecpm = cost per mile to operate an automobile nclow = nesting coefficient at lowest level of nest (0.55)nclow = nesting coefficient at lowest level of nest (0.55) ncmid = nesting coefficient at middle level of nest (0.65)ncmid = nesting coefficient at middle level of nest (0.65) nctop = nesting coefficient at top level of nest (0.85)nctop = nesting coefficient at top level of nest (0.85)
In vehicle time Terminal timeCost termParking cost Auto operating cost
Adjustment to Auto Utility FunctionsAdjustment to Auto Utility Functions
Adjust auto operating costs via VMT fee.Adjust auto operating costs via VMT fee.
Adjust parking costs at attraction endsAdjust parking costs at attraction ends
Rates were increased in CBD, Urban Rates were increased in CBD, Urban Centers, Town Centers, and Community Centers, Town Centers, and Community Centers. Rural and suburban rates were Centers. Rural and suburban rates were unchanged.unchanged.
Low Carbon Land Use withLow Carbon Land Use withEnhanced Transit NetworkEnhanced Transit Network 19.2719.27
Low Carbon Land Use withLow Carbon Land Use withEnhanced Transit Network andEnhanced Transit Network andAll TDM measuresAll TDM measures
18.4818.48
Low Carbon LU, Enhanced Transit, All Low Carbon LU, Enhanced Transit, All TDM measures, with AB1493 and TDM measures, with AB1493 and LCFS 20% post processingLCFS 20% post processing
12.2212.22
Summary Summary
Energy and climate change are on top of Energy and climate change are on top of federal, state and local government’s political federal, state and local government’s political and economic agendaand economic agendaTransportation sector is the largest source of Transportation sector is the largest source of GHG emissions.GHG emissions.Travel forecasting models play important roles in Travel forecasting models play important roles in forecasting GHG emissions.forecasting GHG emissions.TDMs, smart growth land use, and enhanced TDMs, smart growth land use, and enhanced transit network works together to reduce GHG transit network works together to reduce GHG emissions emissions Use disaggregate models, such as ABMs, for Use disaggregate models, such as ABMs, for similar analysissimilar analysis