WTO Accession & Russia’s Agri-Food Sector Eu.Serova Analytical Centre AFE International Agricultural Trade and Sustainable Development in.

WTO AccessionWTO Accession & &

Russia’s Agri-Food Russia’s Agri-Food

SectorSector Eu.Serova

Analytical Centre AFE

www.iet.ru/afe

International Agricultural Trade and Sustainable Development

in Southeast Asia October 31, 2005

Narrative story ofNarrative story of Russian AccessionRussian Accession

1990 – USSR GATT observer

mid-1992 – Russian Federation GATT observer

June 1993 - President Yeltsyn’s official statement on

intention to access, Working Group on Russia’s WTO

Accession set up

December 1994 - official application for accession

April 1995 - negotiating process approved by the State

Duma.

1997- start of agricultural negotiations of Accession

CurrentCurrent Russian negotiation positionRussian negotiation position

Base period 1993-1995

AMS – US$9 bln

Bound tariff 19%

Export subsidies

Russian negotiation positionRussian negotiation position

Russia: PSE,%Russia: PSE,%

-110

-60

-10

40

90

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Russian negotiation positionRussian negotiation positionRussia: AMS=US 9 $ blnRussia: AMS=US 9 $ bln

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Au

stra

lia

Ca

na

da

Cze

ch

EU

-15

Hu

ng

ary

Isla

nd

Jap

an

Ko

rea

Me

xico

N.Z

ea

lan

d

No

rwa

y

Po

lan

d

Sw

ize

rla

nd

US

A

Russian negotiation positionRussian negotiation position AMS/haAMS/ha

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Japan

Switzerland

Korea

Israel

EU-15

Poland

Slovak

Czech

Australia

Canada

USA

Russia

Ukraine

N.Zealand

Austria

Russian negotiation positionRussian negotiation position Russia:Russia: import tariffimport tariff

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

poul

try

red

mea

t

red

mea

t

fish

dairy

cear

eals

cere

als

flour

oil s

eeds

caca

o

past

a

vega

tabl

es

beve

arge

s

TRQ: beef and pork

Volume quota: poultry

Variable import duty: sugar

Russian negotiation positionRussian negotiation position import tariffimport tariff structurestructure

  USAUSA EU-15EU-15 JapanJapan BrazilBrazil MexicoMexico KenyaKenya IndiaIndia RussiaRussia

MeanMean 11.9 20.5 80.1 35.6 44.4 100 116 13

MedianMedian 3.8 10.9 12 35 36 100 100 15

MinMin 0 0 0 0 0 100 10 0

MaxMax 378.7 218.5 2553.6 55 450.7 100 300 50

Std. Std. deviationdeviation

33 29.4 203.3 11.2 42.1 0 52.5 9

# of tariff # of tariff lineslines

1769 2200 1806 942 1080 665 690 847

Russian negotiation positionRussian negotiation position Russia:Russia: effect of tiered formulaeffect of tiered formula

  Current tariff

Negotiated initial bound tariff

New Agreement final tariff t1=at0/(a+t0)

      a=5 a=15 a=50

Meat 19.4 67.5 4.7 12.3 28.7

Fish 10 19.5 4 8.5 14

Dairy 15 42.5 4.5 11.1 23

Sugar 29 49.5 4.5 11.5 24.9

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sectorsector

Russia: share of green box measures in total ag. budgetRussia: share of green box measures in total ag. budget

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

%

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sectorsector

Share of green box policies costs in GDP , 1997, %Share of green box policies costs in GDP , 1997, %

0,23

0,23

0,55

1,28

0,21

0,34

2,01

0,83

0,62

0,27

0,25

-0,80 0,20 1,20 2,20

Australia

Czech

Island

Korea

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Switzerland

USA

OECD

Russia

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sectorsector

ag. budget structureag. budget structure

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2001

2002

2003

2004

Federal Regional Local

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sectorsector

export taxesexport taxes

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sectorsector ag.growthag.growth

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sectorsector

food industry growthfood industry growth

-16

-6

4

14

1986

-199

0 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sectorsector

tradetrade

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004US

$ m

io

export import balance