WS2_Housing_TransitionTowns_Jackson

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Transition Town Farnham:“From oil dependency to local resilience”

Wuppertal

16 March 2009

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“Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time.

We are the ones we've been waiting for.

We are the change that we seek.”

Barack Obama

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Transition Town Farnham:“From oil dependency to local resilience”

• What is Transition

• Why Transition

• What we have done in “Housing” –successes & problems

• Lessons learned

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What is Transition

Berlin, Friedrichshain Kreuzberg, GermanyBoulder, CO

Santa Cruz, CA, USA

Katoomba,Newcastle,

Sydney, NSW

Peterborough, ON, Canada

El Manzano, Chile

Fujino, Japan

Whanganui,Orewa,Nelson,New Zealand

More than 130 ‘Official’More than 800 ‘Thinking about it’

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• Half-way between London and Winchester

• Population 38,000• Saxon village and

then wool town• Hops & beer• Built roof of the

Houses of Parliament• Now commuter town

Transition Farnham

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Why Transition?

1. Climate change

2. Peak oil

3. Positive Visions! Re-build community!

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Climate change…• 1°C increase

Ice-free sea absorbs more heat and accelerates global warming; fresh water lost from a third of the world's surface; low-lying coastlines flooded

• 2°C increaseEuropeans dying of heatstroke; forests ravaged by fire; stressed plants begin to emit carbon rather than absorbing it; a third of all species face extinction

• 3°C increaseCarbon release from vegetation and soils speeds global warming; death of the Amazon rainforest; super-hurricanes hit coastal cities; starvation in Africa

• 4°C increaseRunaway thaw of permafrost makes global warming unstoppable; much of Britain made uninhabitable by severe flooding; Mediterranean region abandoned

• 5°C increaseMethane from ocean floor accelerates global warming; ice gone from both poles; humans migrate in search of food and try vainly to live like animals off the land

If the rise passes five degrees, all feedbacks run out of control

• 6°C increaseLife on Earth ends with apocalyptic storms, flash floods, hydrogen sulphide gas and methane fireballs racing across the globe with the power of atomic bombs; only fungi survive

Source: Mark Lynas , ‘Six Degrees’

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Climate Change

Source: Professor Kevin AndersonDirector of the Tyndall’s Centre’s Energy Programme

‘Safe’ Limit: 2°C30% chance of staying below 2°C

96m tonnes/year x 50 years = Total 4.8bn tonnes

UK Only

Actual:

Six years = 1.2bn tonnes25% , one quarter, of 50 year limit.

Emission reduction of 9% p.a from 2015 for 2 decades gives70% chance of exceeding 2C50% chance of exceeding 3C

Only 30% chance of avoiding “dangerous climate change”

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Climate change…• 1°C increase

Ice-free sea absorbs more heat and accelerates global warming; fresh water lost from a third of the world's surface; low-lying coastlines flooded

• 2°C increaseEuropeans dying of heatstroke; forests ravaged by fire; stressed plants begin to emit carbon rather than absorbing it; a third of all species face extinction

• 3°C increaseCarbon release from vegetation and soils speeds global warming; death of the Amazon rainforest; super-hurricanes hit coastal cities; starvation in Africa

• 4°C increaseRunaway thaw of permafrost makes global warming unstoppable; much of Britain made uninhabitable by severe flooding; Mediterranean region abandoned

• 5°C increaseMethane from ocean floor accelerates global warming; ice gone from both poles; humans migrate in search of food and try vainly to live like animals off the land

If the rise passes five degrees, all feedbacks run out of control

• 6°C increaseLife on Earth ends with apocalyptic storms, flash floods, hydrogen sulphide gas and methane fireballs racing across the globe with the power of atomic bombs; only fungi survive

Source: Mark Lynas , ‘Six Degrees’

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And Peak Oil…November 2008, “Industry Task Force on Peak Oil & Energy Security”:Arup, FirstGroup, Foster + Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solarcentury, Stagecoach Group, Virgin Group, Yahoo

Gap

RapidFall

Source: Peak Oil Consulting

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

/Day

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Climate Change




UK Only

Actual:

Six years = 1.2bn tonnes25% , one quarter, of 50 year limit.

Emission reduction of 9% p.afrom 2015 for 2 decades gives70% chance of exceeding 2C50% chance of exceeding 3C


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And Peak Oil…November 2008, “Industry Task Force on Peak Oil & Energy Security”:Arup, FirstGroup, Foster + Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solarcentury, Stagecoach Group, Virgin Group, Yahoo

Gap

RapidFall

Source: Peak Oil Consulting

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

/Da

y

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• Climate change and peak oil are real and imminent

• They are too big for any individual to deal with, too practical for government

• We need to come together as towns and communities…

• And seize this historic opportunity to rebuild every aspect of our lives

Positive visions!

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Rebuilding Community Resilience:What Transition Towns Do

• Food

• Energy

• Transport

• Housing

Positive visions, positive responses,An opportunity to remake everything

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Rebuilding Community Resilience:What Transition Towns Do

• Food

• Energy

• Transport

• Housing

• Re-skilling

• Heart & soul, emotion

• Local economy, currency, businesses

• Transition Training & Consulting for business


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Housing

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Housing

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Housing• ‘Coin St Community

Builders’, 1970s• 13 acres derelict• Mixed use development

of housing, workspace, open spaces and community facilities

• Set up four social housing co-operatives

• Planning new community centre

• Employ 60 people

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Energy• Buy solar panels

together• Set up energy

companies (Wind, Micro-hydro)

• ‘The most wooded county in England’

• “Loftbusters”

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“Transition Together” Programme

• First pilot underway, Totnes, Devon

• 12 people, 7 households

• Meet for two hours every two weeks, for 14 weeks

Facilitated discussion:1. Introduction and

personal aims

2. Energy

3. Water

4. Food

5. Waste

6. Transport

7. Close

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Local economy, currency, businesses

• Print local currencies

• Build new local businesses

• Support the transformation of existing businesses

• Economic sustainability!

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Transition Training & Consulting

Surviving Transition

2 hour interactive engagement session

Energy Resilience Assessment

3-5 day diagnostic

Building Resilience1-2 day assessment &

planning workshop

‘StrategicMentoring’

Partnership*Explore opportunities

OrganisationalResurgence*

Unleashing your employees’ creativity

Skilling up For Powerdown*Re-skilling your

workforce

Plus ad hoc consulting & implementation expertise

Survive: • Energy• Suppliers• Customers• Staff• Materials• …

Adapt: • Innovate new products & services that help others solve their problems

Thrive: • New low-carbon, high energy business models• Employee enthusiasm

Understand: • Build awareness• Strengthen team commitment

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Challenges:

• Lack of money

• Lack of awareness

• Lack of people

• Lack of time

Opportunities:

“Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time.

We are the ones we've been waiting for.

We are the change that we seek.”

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Lessons Learned

• Everything is connected: food, energy, transport, housing, emotion, skills, business, economy…

• Focus on projects

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Lessons Learned

• Everything is connected: food, energy, transport, housing, emotion, skills, business, economy…

• Focus on projects• Don’t protest: Build sandcastles• Whoever turns up are the right people

• Be the change you want to see in the world• Be the positive change you want to see in the

world• Be the positive change you want to see in the

world, now!

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References

Transition Towns:http://transitionculture.org/ http://www.transitiontowns.org/

Climate Change:Tyndall Centre: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch/ (For a clear introduction, click “The physical science basis” and then “Frequently asked questions”)

Industry Task Force on Peak Oil & Energy Security:http://peakoiltaskforce.net/

Transition Town Farnham:http://transitionfarnham.wordpress.com/

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BACKUPS

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34“From oil dependency to local resilience”

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Some Transition Towns in the UK

Forest of Dean

Liverpool South

Coventry

Lewes

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How can we reduce the use of oil and gas?

• What’s made from oil,or using oil:√ Plastics√ Food (tractors, fertilisers,

pesticides, refrigeration, calories)

√ Heat & light√ Transport (logistics,

holidays, commuting)√ Building

(concrete & steel)√ Factories√ The Internet…

• What in this room isn’t:– …?

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0

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1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Gb

0

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50

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Past

Future

Production

Peak Oil

Currently burning five barrels of oil for every one new barrel discovered

‘Peak Oil’

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“Resilient”

“Able to recoil or spring back to shape after bending”

“Able to withstand or recover quickly from difficult conditions”

Concise Oxford English Dictionary

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What Transition Towns Do

• Food

• Energy

• Transport

• Housing

• Re-skilling



• Transition Training & Consulting


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Food

• Local food directories• Share gardens (x2)• Plant nut trees• Teach permaculture

and agro-forestry• Local food distribution• Apple juicing• How to grow veg• CSAs…

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Transport

• Better public transport• Totnes Rickshaw• Cycle paths• Footpath mapping• Scholar’s Greenway

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Skilling-up for power-down

• Sewing, knitting• Beekeeping• Traditional building

techniques (cob)• Psychology of change• Food growing• Energy descent

planning• …

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Heart & Soul, Emotion

• Children• Comedy• Soil & Soul• Walks• Local history

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What Transition Towns Do

• Food

• Energy

• Transport

• Housing

• Re-skilling



• Transition Training & Consulting


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How Climate Change Could Create and Destroy Company Value

Source: Carbon Trust and McKinsey & Co. analysis, 2008

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Political: Economic/Environmental:

Social: Technological:

General Trends, Drivers,Impacts on Business

Competition:Suppliers: Customers:

Substitutes:

New Entrants:

Competition:• Intensifies under

dual/triple-shock

Suppliers: Customers:

Substitutes:

New Entrants:Political: Economic/Environmental:


Competition:

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Political: Economic/Environmental:


General Trends, Drivers,Impacts on Business

Competition:Suppliers: Customers:

Substitutes:

New Entrants:


dual/triple-shock

Suppliers:• At risk of

collapse• Long supply

chains?

Customers:• Cash poor• Worried• Careful

Substitutes:• Is your service

really necessary?

New Entrants:• Based on new

technologies• Leaner footprint

business models

Political:• Leadership?• Carbon trading

legislation• Other new legislation?

Economic/Environmental:

• Credit crunch, recession/depression

• Rising price of energy

Social:• Emotional turmoil• Social unrest?

Technological:• New technologies

• Choice!• Risk!


dual/triple-shock• Business models

under pressure

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“Some time in the next 5-10 years the British economy will go through the same change as between September 1939 and December 1940:

standards of living will fall by half.” Lord David Puttnam, April 2008

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Climate ChangeEmission reduction of 9% p.a from 2015 for 2 decades gives70% chance of exceeding 2C50% chance of exceeding 3C



Actual:

Six years: 1.2bn tonnes25%, one quarter, of 50 year limit.



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Obama quotes

• http://www.notable-quotes.com/o/obama_barack.html

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WS2_Housing_TransitionTowns_Jackson

Technology

c increase methane

c increase life

c increase europeans

c increase carbon release

c only30

c increase icefree sea

transition towns

climate change source