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Hi and welcome to Marchs What Really Wins Money. I hope you
enjoyed the Cheltenham Festival and made use of the tips and
strategies from Febru-arys newsletter.On to this month, and I begin
by raiding my DRT vaults for an excellent way of backing a football
team at odds of 25/1 or bigger, and coming out on top! It really is
such an easy strategy to implement.Lucy Collins is coming to the
end of her excellent introduction into the world of betting,
courtesy of her The 7 Pillars of Successful Punting. We are on
Pillar Six this month, which offers an introduction into the world
of sports arbitrage its positives and nega-tives.The Statman has
uncovered an excellent lay system, which takes advantage of the
statistically poor performance of placed horses in handicap races.
This is a strategy I will be following with interest at
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.With the Grand National upon us in
April, I show you the six factors you need to have in mind, in
order to shortlist the horses most likely to run well. The
Patriarch offers his Grand National fancy, as well as an excellent
Flat racing betting strategy with an exciting number of big-priced
winners.
With my Home-Grown systems this month, I take a look at how more
risk can lead to greater reward, with a number of interesting
staking plans from www.stakingmachine.com, which really enhance
profits.
We end with a quick round-up of whats hot and whats not with the
Systems and Tipsters Update. There are more reviews to be found at
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.Now lets raid those DRT vaults for
getting results from those big odds
Football trading
introducing the HSa technique: an Easy to Use low-risk
High-reward Football trading Method
I run a football research and live trading service called
Delay-React-Trade or DRT for short.The purpose of this service is a
simple oneWe look to create great betting and trading
oppor-tunities in in-play football matches at www.betfair.com,
which are characterised as low-risk and high-reward. In essence, we
look to back teams and outcomes at high odds, and we look to lay
teams and outcomes at short odds.Heres an excellent trading
technique which follows this low-risk/high-reward ethos, which you
can put to use immediately (or join DRT www.canonburypub
lishing.com/DRT/recommended and let me do all of the work for
you!).I call it the HSA Trading Technique (Half-time Score Away)The
rules are simple to follow and implement.Step 1 Make sure you are
using football matches
The 7 Pillars of successful PunTing (ParT 6)intelligent Sports
arbitrage ....................................... 4
The sTaTman PresenTsHow to Make great Profits from Placed Horses
in Handicap races
........................................................... 6
The PaTriarch PresenTsFind big Priced Winners during the Flat
Season With this Proven Handicap System
.................................. 10
reviews:Home-grown betting Systems Update ...................
12
reviews:Systems and tipsters Update
................................... 16
INSIDE THIS ISSUE:
What Really Wins Moneyan independent review of Tipsters and
Betting systems
march 2014 volume 10 issue 3
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2whose betting markets go in-play at www.betfair.com. The coupon
will be entitled Football In-Play Coupon:
We need the betting markets to go in-play. Odds change when
events change (goals, red cards, even a lack of goals) as a
football match is being played.Step 2 Wait for the match to go
in-play and look out for the following scorelines: either a 0-2 or
a 0-3 to the away side. We want this scoreline to occur early in
the match, preferably before half-time.A 0-2 or 0-3 scoreline at
half-time, to the away side, provides us with an ideal opportunity
for a low-risk high-reward trade. Why? Home teams have a distinct
advantage. The support is naturally on their side. The referees
tend to be subconsciously biased in favour of the home team, simply
down to the voice of the home crowd. And if the home side was the
original favourite in the match, then so much the better. This
0-2/0-3 score-line is a shock, and an early shock.But the match is
not over!As the scoreline has appeared so early, this provides
ample time for the home team to regain parity. A half-time break
can also bring with it great advan-tages for a comeback a change in
tactics, the old hairdryer treatment from the manager, and a
renewed vigour to fight back for the second half in front of home
supporters.Step 3 Back the home team (losing 0-2 or 0-3) at
enhanced odds. The odds youll be getting for a home team when 0-2
or 0-3 down is far higher than youll have gotten (quite obviously)
pre-match.Heres a very recent example, before I share with you some
other examples in the recent past
This is the Algarve Cup, a womens international football
tournament, and this match is between USA ladies and Denmark
ladies.Background The USA are 1.24 shots to win this match, i.e.
they are extremely short-priced favourites indeed. This would be an
ideal scenario for this foot-ball trading strategy (any odds-on
team pre-match would be ideal). An odds-on team at www.betfair.com
is a team whose odds are 2.00 (decimal odds) or below at
kick-off.The match How did this match progress? Not too good for
the Americans, it would seem. I think they must have picked Barbara
Bush to play as a goal-keeper, as the Denmark ladies lead 0-3 at
half-time:
The scoreline in brackets is the half-time scoreline (0-3 to
Denmark Women). I have blanked out the full-time scoreline.My
interest is piqued at this stage! The USA Women, along with the
German Women, are the international powerhouses of ladies football.
A 0-3 scoreline at half-time affords the USA a half-time team-talk
in order to change tactics, and a further 45 minutes in which to
remedy the situation.The USA Women, 1.24 shots pre-match, are
cur-rently backable at odds of 27 at half-time. I decide to back
the USA Women with 25 and hope they act as a top womens
international side should act!How does the second half progress?
The USA ladies score first in the second half to bring the
scoreline back to 1-3:
USA womens odds were 27 at half-time. In reaction to scoring
first in the second half, their odds reduce and provide me with the
first profitable opportunity
In this article, I have taken screenshots from Fairbot, which is
Betfair Trading Software. This strategy can
It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment
as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives
cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or
judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this
understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018 All subscription correspondence to:
What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 3, Hainault
Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5NF. Tel: 0208 597
0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040. Registered office: Canonbury Publishing
Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ.
Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 Copyright
What Really Wins Money 2014
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also be used at www.betfair.com using their cash out facility.
Fairbots greening up function pro-vides an ideal tool for
illustrating the profit potential after each goal has been scored
in the second half.
Having backed USA Women at odds of 27, their odds reduce in
reaction to the goal. The figure in the green box represents the
profit that can be achieved if I were to trade out of my enhanced
bet now (19.08). I make a decision that there are 38 minutes
remaining in this second half, and USA Women are more than capable
of a fight back.
The Denmark Women do not quite read the script in this match,
and score next, making the scoreline 1-4Lets fast-forward to the
critical scoreline in this second half: the scoreline which will
enable a good trading profit
Its the 68th minute of the game. The USA Women have scored three
goals to the Danish Womens four goals.It is here that my 25
half-time bet can be turned into a decent profit (despite there
being 22 minutes of this match remaining).How much can I make at
this stage of the match? Lets return to the Fairbot greening up
box, which shows any profit/loss at each stage of the match:
With the fight-back almost complete, I can now secure a profit
of 110. The market has reacted to the USA Women closing the gap to
one goal by shorten-ing their half-time odds of 27 all the way down
to 4.8.What was the final score? When you trade in-play it is what
happens during a football match which mat-
ters not necessarily the final score.
If you look below, youll see how the match pro-gressed from
beginning to end:
In hindsight, it was fortunate that I profited when the
scoreline was 3-4, instead of holding out for a potential bigger
profit it had potential but was a profit not yet realised. This is
an important lesson if you consider trading. Other examples This is
not an isolated incident. There have been two other matches
recently which followed this template to the letter, only on this
occa-sion the teams were 0-2 down early on in the match and were
leading during the match, or actually won!Look at the match below,
featuring Hibernian FC and Motherwell. It meets all of the criteria
I look for, for this niche trading strategy:
Hibernian are playing at home. The away side Motherwell take an
early 0-2 lead.
Hibernian score the next goal and two more in the second
half.
Note in this example that we do not necessarily wait until
half-time before backing the home team at enhanced odds. The key
here is that the home side are 0-2 or 0-3 down early in the
match.
Remember that I said it is what happens as a match is in-play
that is important to us, and not necessarily the final score. In
this example, Hibernian actually led the match 3-2. It was at this
stage that the maximum profit could have been extracted from this
trade, as Hibernians odds would have reduced dramatically from
their position earlier in the match when they were losing 0-2.
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4And on the same day...We travel to the French Ligue 1 for this
particular example of the strategy in action, and in this case, a
team we could have backed at odds of 25, who go on to win the
match. Tell me: how often do you get the chance to back a team at
odds of 25 (24/1) and be in with an excellent chance of profiting
fully?
This match follows the criteria perfectly: Toulouse are the home
team, and they go 0-2 down to away team Stade Reims at
half-time.
Back Toulouse at half-time at odds of 25. Look at the goal
progression below. I personally traded out when the scoreline
reached 2-2 and Tou-louses odds reduced to 4.4 from a high of 25.
Why didnt I wait to see if they could win? Quite simply, I cannot
predict the future. Why didnt I wait to see if the USA Women would
win, when they were 3-4 up? In that match they actually went on to
lose the match. This could quite easily be the scenario with
Toulouse.
Here is the scoreline for this match:
Bottom line This is an excellent niche. The most famous example
I suppose is that Liverpool Champi-ons League Final when they were
trailing 0-3 to AC Milan.Use the following checklist to find
yourself teams at odds of as high as 25/1 who have an excellent
chance of profiting for you:
Make sure any match you monitor is on the Bet-fair In-play
football coupon.
The home team should not be an obvious out-sider (ideally
odds-on as the USA Women and Toulouse were).
The away team should take an early 0-2 or 0-3 lead. By early, I
generally mean before half-time or at half-time.
Back the home team at enhanced odds. Trade out for a profit if
the home team equalise or there is a significant enough shift in
the odds to allow a profit.
If you want to see this trading strategy and a number of other
profitable trading strategies making money, in realtime, please
take a trial with my Delay-
React-Trade (DRT) football trading service at:
www.canonburypublishing.com/DRT/recommended.The key to my trading
success is to look for low-risk-high-reward trades such as the HSA
trading strategy showcased here.
tHE 7 PillarS oF SUccESSFUl PUnting (Part 6)
intelligent Sports arbitrageWhat is sports arbitrage?Sports
arbitrage (or arbing) is the practice of plac-ing simultaneous bets
on all possible outcomes in an event at odds which guarantee a
profit.
The key determinant for arbing success is to find, say, a
two-team/player event, where the odds for one player and the odds
for the other player, when trans-lated into a percentage, are less
than 100%.Heres a simple exampleWe find a tennis match, where
Player A is priced at odds of evens with Bookmaker X.At Bookmaker
Y, Player B is priced at odds of 11/10.Is there an arbing
opportunity here? You bet there is. Follow these simple stepsStep 1
Translate the odds into percentages. The Internet has charts such
as this one found at
www.horseracing-and-bettingsystems.com/betting-odds-percentage-table.html,
which will do this for you.Alternately, follow this simple
equation. Lets look at Player A, who has been priced at evens.
Evens is also 1/1 in fractional terms. We divide the top number in
the fraction by the bottom number. In the case of an evens bet
which is 1/1, we divide 1 by 1 and we get 1.Now add 1 and this
becomes 2. We now divide 100 by 2 to get the percentage. Evens,
therefore, become 50%.Lets do this with Player B: 11 divided by 10
is 1.1. Add 1 = 2.1. Now divide 100 by 2.1.We get 47.62%.Step 2 Add
up the percentages of the two players. If that percentage is under
100% you can actually create a guaranteed profit. In this example,
Player As odds as a percentage is 50%.Player Bs odds as a
percentage is 47.62%. Total percentage is 97.62%.
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Step 3 Profit from the arb by backing each player with that
percentage of your betting back. Using 100 as an example, we could
back Player A for 50 at evens, and Player B for 47.62 at
11/10.Regardless of which player wins, we will win 100-97.62 or
2.38. This is a simplistic look at basic arbing in a
two-team/player event. There are obvious objections to sports
arbing. Lets take a look at them1. It can involve a lot of effort
for very modest
returns. Firstly, you have to put a price on your time... A 3%
return on a 100 arb buys you 3. Youll need a lot of those to pay
the rent, and probably dont want to spend half an hour finding
them. So automa-tion rapidly becomes a necessity.You also need to
bet with decent chunks of cash if youre going to make any real
money at this. Double your stakes and you double your income, all
in the same amount of time. So unless youre prepared to work with a
substantial bankroll, you may find your progress is limited (though
equally, there is no need to panic unduly about this one, as
usually very little, if any, of your bankroll will actually be at
risk. In effect, what we are talking about is the need to set aside
working capital).Secondly, you have to turn over your money
quickly. So setting up arbs several weeks in advance makes no
sense. You need events that are going to take place sometime soon,
preferably today, and ideally within the next half hour! Which
brings me back to automation (about which theres more below), and
to the need for timely information.2. The bookies will shut you
down.Well, yes possibly, but all successful punters struggle with
this one, not just arbers. And there is a lot you can do to manage
your bookie relationships.Ive had a lot to say on this subject in
the past, so shall just add/repeat the following here:
Remember to smooth your bets (i.e. never use stakes with precise
amounts of pence), and try to focus on (reasonably) mainstream
sports events. There is no more sure-fire way of getting your
account closed than betting 47.23 on Madagas-can U-17 ladies
darts.
Ideally, ensure your stakes end in a 0 or a 5. If you must bet
62 to make the sums work, place an initial bet of 2, then follow up
with a second
one of 60, to encourage your friendly bookie to regard the first
punt as a keying error.
Dont panic if you have an account closed. There are a lot of
bookmakers on the Internet: probably far more than any of us
realise, so it doesnt matter that much if you have a few accounts
closed along the way. Plus there are new ones opening all the time
(Winner.com; Betfairs sportsbook; Vernons sportsbook; Betbright,
etc).
Remember to check that any obscure book-ies you use are safe. I
always do a quick check on the Bookmakers Review Red List
(www.bookmakersreview.com/red-list).
Consider using Skrill (www.skrill.com), instead of bankcards.
This is actually good for both you and your bookie, as he should
incur lower banking charges, and you will turn over your funds far
more quickly which is, as we have seen, essential to making
arbitrage pay.
Consider cross-market arbs. They are much harder for bookies to
spot, and therefore less likely to attract account limiting action
(e.g. bet on the 0-0 outcome in the Correct Score market, and on
the Over 0.5 Goals option in the Goals market). 3. You will
eventually fall foul of palpable error
clauses.Palpable error clauses can be exasperating. If you dont
know, these are your bookmakers get-out-of-jail cards, for when
they have made a tran-scription error or similar, and are on the
hook for a bigger payout than they feel is fair. They can even
revoke a bet after the sports event in question has finished, if
they deem that the price they gave was palpably wrong!This may
sound a bit scary, but the bottom line is that palpable errors need
not be a problem if you use your common sense. Basically, if a
particular price looks too good to be true (i.e. massively out of
line from what other bookies are offering on the same event), its
OK: take the bet provided you then contact your bookie for
confirmation in writing before laying it off. If it is a palp, hell
tell you at this point, and youll get money back, without any
downside.For a full discussion of palpable errors, read my case
study on the subject at
www.laybackandgetrich.com/sports-arbitrage-and-the-risk-of-palpable-error-clauses.automation
which products to useMy recipe for sports arbitrage success
contains four ingredients:
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6 Automation Timeliness Working capital A wide range of
bookies
Only the third one (money!) is entirely dependent on you! The
other three can all be comfortably supplied by a number of online
providers in what has rapidly become a pretty mature market.My
favourite general arbitrage service, by some dis-tance, is Mathbet
(www.mathbet.com). Its not cheap, but is very good value, and
covers a wide range of bookies and markets. It produces lots of
arbs that are (usually) still there by the time you click through
to the bookies site, and performed well in trials on my site (with
around 80% of arbs still being available on the bookmakers websites
by the time we arrived see
www.laybacka-ndgetrich.com/mathbet-trial-conclusion).Mathbet also
supplies a lot of cross-market arbs, which are particularly
bookie-friendly, as we have seen. It is also generally easy to
understand and use, and will even automatically log you into most
(but not all) bookie sites, so helping speed things up.Another
appealing option and quite astonishing value is new entrant,
Spymare (www.spymare.com). Spymare concentrates on back-and-lay
arbi-trage on horse racing only, but finds some incred-ible value
arbs. Again, it has performed very well in live trials on my site,
even convincing my triallist to abandon his previous cynicism about
arbitrage! (See
www.laybackandgetrich.com/spymare-review-trial-conclusion).Unlike
many such products, Spymare accesses bookie sites directly, rather
than simply scraping all its data from odds comparison sites. This
makes its arbs much more up to date and valuable.A further
advantage with Spymare and indeed with any horse-racing arbitrage
solution is that it pretty much stops you worrying about palpable
errors. They are extremely rare on horse-racing markets, as the
latter are so efficient and move so fast.
Spymare even comes with a three days free option to allow you
time to make enough money to buy the product!A third option thats
also good value is to try Mike Cruickshanks Arb Alarm service yes,
he of Bonus Bagging fame. Like Spymare, Mike focuses on
back-and-lay arbs meaning one half of your arb will almost
certainly be placed at Betfair but he does
cover more sports than just horse racing. I had a look at Mikes
service, and came away with mixed feelings; but also found plenty
of my readers keen to jump to his defence. Without a doubt, its
extremely good value when compared to premium products like
Mathbet, but then so it should be, as it is quite a bit less
ambitious. It is backed up by tremendous customer service, as well
as the usual ClickBank warranty, so you cannot lose by giving it a
spin. But its probably best regarded as a helpful (and cheap!)
introduction, rather than the very last word on the
subject.SummaryIt does require quite a patient, organised soul to
work through a list of arbs, then go and place all the required
bets on a swathe of bookmaker websites that all look and work
differently. Whether the pay-off of risk-free, tax-free income is
enough to justify the hassle is a personal decision, but a trial
period will undoubtedly help you make up your mind.Sports arbitrage
is undoubtedly one of the easiest ways of making tax-free cash open
to anyone with a computer, and remarkably, the products you need
are only a click away. I strongly recommend you con-sider it,
either as an income streamin its own right, or which I prefer as a
way of building or repairing my betting bank. And that about wraps
up Pillar Six! I will be back next time with my seventh and final
pillar, mysteri-ously entitled DashBoard Betting!Lucy
Collinswww.laybackandgetrich.com
tHE StatMan PrESEntS
How to Make great Profits from Placed Horses in Handicap
races
Thanks to a What Really Wins Money reader who contacted me
recently and asked me to look into a particular statistical angle.
There are at least two stats geeks out there, Im glad to see!The
idea is that we are looking for poorly-handi-capped horses we can
lay: where the official handi-capper, who allocates ratings that in
turn are made in to racing weights per race, has the horses firmly
in his or her grip.
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We would have liked to have looked at the last three runs for
each horse, but sadly my software wont give me that information, so
I have amended the concept as below.laying the foundationsAs with
all Statman articles, I will be basing my conclusions upon the last
10 years of statistical data, or more precisely from 1 January 2003
to date.Any Betfair Starting Price profit (BSP) assumes Bet-fairs
5% commission. Any profits and losses quoted are to a nominal 1
stake.the stats that sparked my interest!With prompting from What
Really Wins Money reader Tony, I decided to look at the
performances of horses that had come first, second or third in
their last handicap race, and were contesting a handicap again in
their next race. This is the kind of race we will be focusing on in
this article:
This is a typical race card at www.racingpost.com and is free to
access. I have arrowed the two key areas. The first thing we must
do is ensure the race is a handicap. Quite simply, the race will
have the word handicap in the title.The second arrow on the left is
the form column, which details the form for each horse.Truckers
Darling would be of interest here. Why? Lets look at the form in
greater detail:Truckers Darlings form reads 209113, which is read
from left to right (latest on the right). In Trucker Darlings last
race, he finished third.
Here is the statistical data for the last 10 years for handicap
horses who finished first, second or third in their last handicap
race and are contesting another handicap race today.I have looked
at the stats for handicaps and nurser-ies (a nursery is a
two-year-old handicap), at all race courses, over all goings, and
distances, and race
codes (Flat and Jumps).Qualifiers Winners Losers Strike Rate
Profit/Loss
SPProfit/Loss Betfair SP
197,838 27,777 17,0061 14.04% -34,360.71 -7,383.53
This is very definitely not a backing system, I think youll
agree. A 14.04% strike rate over 10 years is highly consistent
(consistently bad!) and leads me to conclude that we should be
looking at laying these horses on betting exchanges such as
www.betfair.com, rather than backing them.The one negative with
this highly promising laying idea is the large number of qualifying
bets. Perhaps a betting bot could be employed? It would certainly
be a busy bot.With this large number of qualifiers, I looked at
employing some filters in order to refine my search and reduce
qualifiers to a more manageable number.
In this second phase of my statistical search, I looked this
time at horses that had finished second and third last time out (I
take out the winners on this occa-sion). Here are the 10-year
stats:Qualifiers Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss
SPProfit/Loss Betfair SP
126,719 16,292 110,427 12.86% -23,382.32 -6,402.09
The number of qualifiers has been reduced I suppose, from
197,000 to 126,000; an improvement of sorts.In order to reduce the
number of qualifying horses further, I decided to look at the
individual stats for horses that finished first last time out, then
look at the individual stats for horses who finished second last
time out, and finally third last time out.
First place only last time out:Quali-fiers
Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP
Profit/Loss Betfair SP
71,118 11,485 59,683 16.15% -10,977.38 -2,550.42
Second place only last time out:Quali-fiers
Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP
Profit/Loss Betfair SP
62,967 8,784 54,183 13.95% -12,169.36 -4,863.04
Third place only last time out:Quali-fiers
Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP
Profit/Loss Betfair SP
63,752 7,508 56,244 11.78% -11,212.97 -2,258.36
Quite clearly, the number of qualifying bets is reduced and the
strike rate for third-placed horses is very poor for backers (but
is music to the ears of layers!). These horses should not be backed
should they?! That is becoming clearer and clearer!
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8digging a little deeper
We now have the stats for horses that finished first, second or
third in their last race. I next decided to look at qualifying
horses in handicaps on the All-Weather (easily identifiable by the
AW after a courses name at www.racingpost.com) and compare that
with performance on the turf... All-weather only:Quali-fiers
Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP
Profit/Loss Betfair SP
44,699 6,891 37,808 15.42% -7,131.65 -1,430.07
Turf only:Quali-fiers
Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP
Profit/Loss Betfair SP
84,863 11,467 73,396 13.51% -14,768.02 -2,970.22
The poor performance figures (for backers) contin-ues.Having
looked at the performance on the Flat, lets look at how these
first, second and third last time out fared over Hurdles and Chase
fences.Hurdles only: (the word Hurdle will appear some-where in the
race title).Quali-fiers
Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP
Profit/Loss Betfair SP
35,585 4,557 31,028 12.81% -7,597.02 -2,342.78
Chases (the word Chase or Steeplechase will appear somewhere in
the race title):Quali-fiers
Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP
Profit/Loss Betfair SP
32,691 4,862 27,829 14.87% -4,864.02 -630.06
The Betfair SP Profit/Loss figure is greatly reduced for
qualifiers in chase races. As this is turning into a laying system,
perhaps we can leave chase races alone in order to eke out the
maximum profit pos-sible.We are yet to look at the performance of
qualify-ing horses in terms of their position in the betting
marketFavourites only all handicaps:Quali-fiers
Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP
Profit/Loss Betfair SP
44,538 11,955 32,583 26.84% -3,879.37 -1,496.67
First or second favourites all handicapsQuali-fiers
Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP
Profit/Loss Betfair SP
77,848 17,802 60,046 22.87% -8,212.05 -3,029.78
First, second or third favourites all handicapsQuali-fiers
Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP
Profit/Loss Betfair SP
105,473 21,427 84,046 20.32% -12,335.71 -4,052.21
Lastly, a quick look by age gave the following stats: Age
Quali-
fiersWinners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss
SPProfit/Loss Betfair SP
2 8,464 1,175 7,289 13.88% -1,627.05 -519.833 43,407 6,815
36,592 15.7% -6,110.77 -425.544 32,838 4,757 28,081 14.49%
-5,268.00 -1,200.225 27,953 3,916 24,037 14.01% -4,869.42
-1,527.296 25,595 3,576 22,019 13.97% -4,320.20 -1,086.937 21,981
2,980 19,001 13.56% -4,015.18 -1,373.758 16,245 2,143 14,102 13.19%
-3,017.25 -1,010.309 10,656 1,273 9,383 11.95% -2,475.98
-1,186.7610 5,960 659 5,301 11.06% -1,449.78 -622.9811 2,903 311
2,592 10.71% -649.84 -296.5112 1,209 115 1,094 9.51% -371.45
-208.7713 485 48 437 9.9% -110.05 -35.8914 117 8 109 6.84% -56.25
-46.7415 23 1 22 4.35% -17.50 -17.5416 2 0 2 0.00% -2.00 -2.00
It seems that the older the horse, the poorer the strike rate
for backers.conclusions:
The sheer numbers of qualifying horses is a slight concern, but
this looks to be a simple system for layers to profit from long
term. We have gone through a number of different statistical angles
and none really stands out.I suppose we can ignore chase races in
this instance, and if you really wanted to limit the number of
bets, then a focus on three-year-old horses who qualify would be
the option it may not be as profitable, but with the lowest return
on investment they hit the best profit-per-pound risked as a lay in
my book, and could be an optional alternative with an average of 12
bets a day!Use this stat analysis as follows:
i. Log on to www.racingpost.com or look at the hard copy or your
favourite newspaper (ones with good racing coverage).
ii. Look for races with the word handicap or nursery
(two-year-old handicaps) in the title.
iii. Ignore races with the words chase or steeple-chase in the
title.
iv. Make a note of any and all horses who have the numbers 1, 2
or 3 nearest to their name in the form column (i.e. their most
recent run).
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v. Lay all of those horses on Betfair.vi. I suggest starting
with smallest stakes to begin
with, as there are a lot of selections per day to cope with and
there will be losing days as well as (more) winning ones.
vii. If you are looking for an easier-to-use version with less
bets, then all the age ranges above show a profit of some kind you
could limit your bets accordingly by picking your own age range
and/or race type (I dont advise chases as they look the least
profitable) the choice is yours.
Thanks to the Statman for that. Now a look ahead to the Grand
National
Six Factors for grand national Profits
5 April 2014 will see the race which stops a nation. Heres a
quick guide to the six factors you should be looking out for, in
order to narrow down the mas-sive 40-runner field into horses most
likely, based on winning profiles from past races.
The six factors are age, weight, experience, trainers tricks,
stamina, and handicap rating.I have listed below the key stats and
trends you need in each category. Nearer to race time, make sure
you check out www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk and my Twitter
@whatreallywins where Ill be going through the finalised field and
picking the horses that best fit the best profile.
agE The ideal horse should be aged between 8 and 12 years.
Thirteen of the last 19 winners were aged 9 or 10 years.
Nine-year-olds have the best record since 1970 with 13
winners.
Ten-year-olds have won 10 Grand Nationals since 1970. They have
won four of the last six nationals.
Eleven-year-olds have won nine Grand Nation-als in the last 33
years, but HAVE won the last two Grand Nationals (Neptune Collonges
and Auroras Encore).
WEigHt 11 stone 6 lbs or under is the ideal weight. Imagine
having to carry a huge weight a huge distance over those huge
obstacles!
Since the war, only six Grand Nationals were won by horses
carrying more than 11 stone 5 lbs, and Red Rum won twice.
Eighteen of the last 20 winners carried 11 stone 3 lbs or
less.
Only seven horses have carried more than 11 stone to victory
since 1970: Red Rum (twice 1974, 1977), LEscargot (1975), Grittar
(1982), Corbiere (1983), Hedgehunter (2005), Dont Push It (2010)
and Neptune Collonges (2012).
EXPEriEncEThe ideal horse will have:
Won a chase over at least 3 miles in his career; Placed over 3
miles 2 furlongs or further; Ran in at least eight chases in his
career; Had at least three preparation (prep) runs; Had a run
within 53 days of running in the National;
Won a chase worth at least 28K.Furthermore:
Each of the last 10 Grand National winners have run at least 10
times over fences.
Every winner in the last 10 years has won a chase worth at least
17,000.
Look for previous course runners who may not necessarily have
won or placed, but have competed and completed over Grand National
fences.
trainErS tricKS Seven of the last 10 winners ran over hurdles in
the season they won the Grand National are they running over
hurdles to protect their chase mark?
Only two winners have been trained in France.StaMina
Look for horses with proven stamina (see Expe-rience above).
Horses should ideally have won a chase over at least 3 miles, or at
least been placed over 3 miles 2 furlongs.
Look for horses who have completed the course without
winning.
HandicaP ratingConcentrate on horses rated between 136 and 157
on the day of the race.bottom line:Ill be showing you how to check
out each of these
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stats using the Racing Post at www.whatreallywin smoney.co.uk as
soon as the field is finalised a bit nearer the race time. Ill take
you on a video tour of the Racing Post web-site and show you how
you can quickly shortlist the horses most likely to perform well
based on past stats and sequences.
tHE PatriarcH PrESEntS
Find big Priced Winners during the Flat Season With this Proven
Handicap System
So, thats Cheltenham gone for another year, leav-ing behind a
bundle of memories, pleasant or painful, depending on how youve
done... Now its time for the start of the Flat Season and the Grand
National. Im going to give a tip for the National and then an old
plan for the Flat. Many punters regard the National as something of
a lottery (its perhaps ironic that the first winner of the race in
1839 was named Lottery!), but that great gambler of yesteryear,
Alex Bird, didnt seem to think so; he had some of his biggest bets,
and wins, in the race. Last year I backed Teaforthree and actually
thought I might have got the winner, but no, it was run out of it
and ended up third. Still, the each-way bet was a con-solation. Ive
backed it again this year and hope for an improvement of two
places. This is not altogether impossible. It seems to be in good
fettle and, with 10 stone 12lbs on its back, is carrying 5lbs less
than last year. I got on at 22-1, but its less now. Anyway, thats
my tip for whatever its worth.Since I wrote the above, Ive learned
that Teaforthree is going to be the mount of A.P. McCoy, so I might
increase my stake, although the 22-1 has gone.Whenever you think of
the Grand National, its impossible not to think of Bechers Brook
that famous fence, not so fearsome now as it once was but still a
formidable jump. But who or what was Becher in the first place? So,
lay aside your study of the form of the races 40 runners for a
moment and Ill tell you. Its a good story and I hope youll enjoy
it.It was named after a Captain Martin Becher who rode in that
first Grand National of 1839. He had served with the Duke of
Wellington in the Napole-
onic Wars but on his return from them, he resumed his passion
for cross-country chasing, where he was a prolific winner. But he
had other abilities that I find amazing: apparently he could run
round a room, up the walls, something like a wall-of-death trick
motor-cyclist, even giving the ceiling a kick. Furthermore, from a
standing position he could jump up onto a rooms mantelpiece. But
its what happened in that 1839 Grand National that I find most
endearing. By now, aged 40, he was aboard a horse called Conrad
that set off in front, and when he came to the first main obstacle,
a brook, Conrad suddenly stopped, sending Captain Becher over the
fence and into the water. There he lay in the water until the whole
field had passed and then emerged sodden and complaining bitterly
(and this is where I raise a glass to the cap-tain) that he had
never realised how vile water tasted without the benefit of whisky!
He re-mounted, but fell at the second brook, whereupon he gave up
on the Grand National for good. But it never forgot him, preserving
his name at the brook to this day.big-priced winners this Flat
seasonFor the start of the new Flat season I have an old system
from around 25 years ago that seems almost too good to be true,
with winners at 20-1, 14-1 (twice), 12-1, 10-1, etc. I have all
these results but the only trouble is that it seems to give very
few selections. However, I have a suggestion that will increase the
number of our selections but whether it will harm our success rate
is another matter. The figures I have are for 43 bets and 15
winners, which is very impres-sive at the big prices of the
winners. Ill describe the thinking behind the system first and then
suggest the best way to find any possible bets.
We are looking purely at handicaps and the winners of these
turning out again within 14 days. The race following their win must
be a rise in class, and this is where the system differs from most
others which look for a drop in class or similar class. With the
rise in class, the winner will have less weight to carry than in
its winning race, and it is this difference in weight which is
central to the system. This weight difference must be 14lbs or
more. So, if in the race it won it carried 9st 2lbs, then in the
raised class race it must not carry more than 8st 2lbs. One other
thing the race it won must have had at least 16 runners.My
suggestions, and they are no more than that, to
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increase the number of possible selections would be to decrease
the number of runners in the qualifying race from 16 to perhaps 14.
And again, to reduce the weight drop from 14 lbs to 12, or even 10.
I just wonder how that would doI am well aware of the work involved
with the pos-sibility of finding no selections, so patience is of
the essence. Anyway, heres how I would set about iti. Look in all
handicap races on the Flat for win-
ners last time out, running again within 14 days.How do we
identify a handicap race? Much like the Statmans article, we will
shortlist any race on the Flat only which has the word handicap in
its title. As I write, we are in the midst of the Jumps season, so
please forgive me, as my example is from the Jumps arena, but will
serve to illustrate what you should be looking for.Go to
www.racingpost.com, Cards, and Todays Cards.Here is a good example
of what to look for (remem-ber this is taken from the Jumps and is
for illustrative purposes only this system is for the Flat
Season)
Look for the word handicap in the title at any Flat race
meeting. Note down also the class of race. Here the horse is
running in a Class 5 race.Focusing on According To Them, I will
show this horses information in detail below:
The arrow pointing to the 1 shows us that Accord-ing To Them won
his last race. The arrow pointing to the 14 shows us that According
To Them last raced 14 days ago. The horse therefore qualifies so
far (remembering you will be focusing solely on the Flat race
meetings those not over hurdles and fences).Check these for the
following in their previous race: that it was a handicap race with
16 or more runners.How do we do this?At www.racingpost.com, simply
click on the horses name, and this will gain you access to his past
form..
Our focus in this case turns to the horses last race (24
February). That race should have been a handi-cap (notice the
letters Hc under Race Conditions? This tells us it was a handicap),
and the horse should have ran in a 16-runner race (look at race
outcome and you will see that According To Them finished first of
four runners (1/4) so does not qualify. If this was a 16-runner
race, the 4 would have been replaced with a 16).The horse must also
have won in a lower class of race than it is running in today.
Under Race Condi-tions you will see C4: this signifies a Class 4
race
.
Todays race is a Class 5. For this horse to qualify as a bet, it
would need to be Class 3 (a class higher than the Class 4 race he
won last time out).ii. That it carried 14lbs or more than it is set
to
carry in its present race (there are 14lbs in a stone).
For this part of the system, we need to compare the horses
weight when it won (in our example, that race on 24 February), to
the horses weight in this next race (the Anise Catering Handicap
Hurdle in the first screenshot).
Look at the Race Outcome again, and youll see in brackets (14L
Present To You 11-9). This translates as the horse winning by 14
lengths with Present To You in second, and for our purposes here,
According To Them carried 11 stone 9 lbs.Returning to todays
race:
I have arrowed the horses weight today, which is 11 stone 9 lbs.
There is no difference in weights. In order for the horse to
qualify as a bet, it would have carried 11 stone 9 lbs in its first
race, and is set to carry 14lbs less (14lbs is 1 stone), or in this
case, 10 stone 9lbs or less, in its next race.I hope you can follow
the methodology. The Flat season is yet to get going, so finding an
actual example is difficult. Clive will be posting selections when
they appear at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. This is a system with
very stringent rules so there will be long periods without
selections. Thanks to the Patriarch for that. Lets see how my
Home-Grown systems are faring up
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rEviEWS:
Home-grown betting Systems Update
This month, I want to take a look at how riskier staking plans
can really enhance profits, par-ticularly when laying. Ill be
introducing you to new Home-Grown betting systems at www.whatreally
winsmoney.co.uk over the coming month.Do note that all selections
for all Home-Grown sys-tems mentioned in this article are available
daily, and for free, at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk for all What
Really Wins Money subscribers.This month I want to look at
alternative staking plans, the kinds of staking plans which may
engen-der an increase in risk, but with said increase in risk,
these staking plans can increase profits considerably and
outperform basic level stakes.laying the favourite in irish
bumpersThis strategy is simplicity itself. Look for the words INH
Flat Race in the race title at the Race Cards in Irish Jumps
venues, and lay the favourite.We have now had 49 selections since
November 2012, with a 66% strike rate.A 100 starting betting bank,
laying favourites in these INH Flat races (also known as Bumpers),
to level stakes (10 for illustration) has turned into 306.The
profit graph shows a slight dip as the winters Jumps season winds
down:
This is the simplest staking plan. If you want to take more
risk, and with more risk more reward, here are a couple of staking
plans which might interest youthe basic lay ladderA lay ladder is a
loss-recovery staking plan, so is higher risk than level stakes,
but profits can be doubled, or trebled if the staking plan is used
with
the right selections at the right price (and with favourites, we
are of course always laying the lowest priced horse in the
race).This lay ladder lasts for three lays. We look to win a
certain predetermined amount (in my case 5) when each horse loses.
If the horse wins its race, the lay ladder will seek to win our
target profit, as well as the losses from the last lay. As the lay
ladder runs for a sequence of only three bets, risk should be kept
to a minimum.Heres an example:
The odds are in the second column: 1 stands for win, and 2
stands for loss. When laying, we want a horse to lose, so are
looking for a 2.Lets look at the lay ladder here, and this is a
worst-case scenario because all three horses won their races. In
the first race, we lay a horse at odds of 1.39, in order to win 5.
The horse wins its race. We lose a liability of 1.95.In bet two, we
lay a horse at odds of 2.94. In this instance we want to win our 5
target, as well as the loss of 1.95.This horse wins its race and we
lose a total of 13.48.In bet three, we lay a horse at odds of 2.64.
In this instance we want to win our 5 target, as well as the lost
1.95 and lost 14.48, totalling 20.43.The horse wins its race and we
lose a total of 33.51.This is the worst-case scenario and you must
be will-ing to accept these losses before you embark on this kind
of lay ladder. Heres why I think this kind of lay ladder might work
when laying favourites... Look at the profit graph:
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Since November 2012, the longest losing sequence has been three
bets, which fits in perfectly with this kind of lay ladder. the lay
1-4 staking plan
The second staking plan, which increases profits for laying
favourites in Bumpers in Ireland, is called Lay 1-4. (All of these
staking plans can be found at www.stakingmachine.com.)What attracts
me to this staking plan is that I know the maximum risk. The
largest single stake will always be 40.What is Lay 1-4?This is a
gentler loss-recovery staking plan. The idea here is to increase
your stakes by 1 point after a winner (a losing lay), to a maximum
of 4 points until the losses are recovered.Here is a sequence of
bets that takes you from 1-4 stakes:
We are looking at 6 November. We lay a horse at odds of 2.7 to
win 10. The horse wins its race, so we lose our liability of 17.The
Series column keeps track of the accumulated losses. So, for 6
November a figure of -17 appears in this column.In the second bet
(7 November), we lay a horse at odds of 3.7 and increase our stake
to 20. The horse wins its race (we lose) and we lose a liability of
54. The accumulated losses in the Series column now increases to
-71.In bet three on 7 November, we lay a horse at odds of 3.35 and
increase our stake to 30. The horse loses its race (we win) and we
win 28.50. The current accumulated loss therefore reduces by 28.50
to 42.50.In bet four on 8 November, we lay a horse at odds of 2.98
and our stake remains at 30 (remember our stake will remain the
same until the loss is recov-ered). The horse loses its race so we
win another 28.50. The accumulated losses reduce further to -14
thanks to these two consecutive successful lays.
In bet five, we lay a horse at odds of 1.52 and our stake
remains at 30. This horse wins its race (we lose) and we lose
15.60. The series column shows us that the accumulated losses
increase to 29.60.Bet six is the final bet of this sequence. We lay
a horse at odds of 2.43 and increase our stakes to 40. This horse
loses and we win 38. The previous losses have now been recovered
and we return to a 10 stake for the next race.Laying favourites in
Irish Bumpers using Lay 1-4 has turned a 100 betting bank into 902.
As I said earlier, the highest stake is 40 and the liability will
remain low as we are always dealing with favourites.Do check out
www.thestakingmachine.com/lay14.php for a closer look at this
staking plan. There are those who want to stick with level stakes
laying, and good luck to them. There are, though, a number of
different strategies which will benefit from a more adventurous
staking plan approach. The two I have showcased here increase
profits markedly while not creating undue risk. Lay 1-4
particularly appeals, as we are dealing with laying favourites so
odds will not be unduly worrying.novice Hurdle third-favourite
laying
This is another lay system which is simplicity itself. We look
to lay the third-favourite in Novice Hurdle races in the UK and
Ireland.It is a volatile system if we include all selections.
However, if laying third-favourites in Novice Hurdles at odds of 6
or lower, the system is a lot smoother. A 47-point profit is
excellent for such a simplistic idea.As with the Irish Bumper
favourites, those willing to take a little more risk will be
rewarded with a little more profit.
If laying third-favourites in Novice Hurdles, at odds of 6 or
lower, a 57-point profit has accrued since 2012.The
higher-risk/higher-reward staking plan Id like to look at this
month is called Lay % Recovery. Please take a look at
www.thestakingmachine.com/lay_percentage_recovery.php for a fuller
explanation of this type of staking plan. Loss-recovery staking
plans always carry greater risk, particularly when laying. This
risk, though, seems to have translated in greater profits.
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14
An 83% strike rate, as well as the longest losing run over 2
years being only three bets, allows this staking plan to
flourish.
Starting with a nominal 1,000, we look to lay 2% stakes. The
betting bank has increased to 2,048.laying vulnerable favouritesIn
Augusts What Really Wins Money, I introduced you to two Overwhelm
betting systems.One of these Overwhelm betting systems was called
the Vulnerable Favourites Lay Strategy. Quite simply, we look for a
Racing Post betting forecast where the first four horses in the
betting are tightly matched.Here is a quick example:355 Musselburgh
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 El Namoose, 4/1 Warriors Tale, 9/2 Racing
Europe, 5/1 Gurkha Brave.In this race, the second horse is only 0.5
point bigger than the favourite. The third horse is only 0.5 point
bigger in odds than the second-favourite; and the fourth-favourite
is only 0.5 point bigger than the third-favourite.The inference
here is that, with such a tight head of the betting market, surely
the Betting Forecast favou-rite is there under sufferance, rather
than being an outstanding candidate for favouritism.A 26-point
profit since January 2014 laying horses priced between 4 and 14 has
absorbed a recent poor run, just as I write. This remains a laying
system I like, for its simplicity and long-term potential.A
112-point profit since January 2013 to level stakes is not to be
sniffed at. In this month, where we are opting for
high-risk/high-reward alternatives, there are a number of staking
plans which sky-rocket this profit level. But remembering that we
are laying horses priced at between odds of 4 and 14, any
loss-retrieval staking plan, for this strategy, could result in
huge losses.I will stick with level stakes, which have served me so
well from January 2013 to date.two-horse race placersThis
Home-Grown strategy was the eye-catcher for 2013, and before I
explain how to make selections, heres a look at the profit graph
for 2013... (We place back any selections priced between odds of
1.1 and 1.5 in the place only market.)
Now you can see what this place-only strategy appealed to me
enough to warrant continuation into 2014.There was a slight lull,
but profits rose soon after, to finish the year with a 47-point
gain. Whilst on the subject of high-risk/high-reward staking plans,
a plan called the Pro Plan, from www.stakingmachine.com and which I
shared with you in 2013, turned 100, yes a measly 100, into nearly
4,900!The Pro Plan looks to win a target profit per race and is
best explained here at www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php. As the
strike rate was so high, I looked to win 10% of the betting bank
per race.What of 2014?If you look at the 2013 graph above, youll
see a period of loss at the beginning of that year. Well, this is
exactly what we are experiencing at present. A 100 betting bank
stands at 84 currently, backing all selections at odds of between
1.1 and 1.5 to place.The Pro Plan which featured so prominently in
2013, has turned the 100 betting bank into 193, so may be worth
persevering with in 2014?As to the strategy, well, we look for
two-horse races in the Betting Forecast in the Racing Post, and
back the Live Market favourite to place only.Here is an example of
the type of race we look for530 Wolves BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Wild
Desert, 2/1 Scribe, 9/2 Bute Hall.Can you see that this is
apparently a two-horse race with a noticeable gap to the third
horse Bute Hall?This is definitely a strategy to recommend for
2014. The price graph can be made less volatile by only backing
qualifying selections between the odds of 1.1 and 1.5.bottom
linePlease follow these strategies and their selections at
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. I will be adding more ideas, as long
as they are showing a current
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profit, in the coming month at the website. And dont forget
EVA!EVA is my Each-way Value Alternative daily tips post at
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, which has been picking winners as
high as 28 and placed horses at odds as high as 45. Selections are
free to What Really Wins Money sub-scribers and are really doing
the business in 2014. With that said, lets now turn to other
tipsters and systems that weve been testing and see how theyre
doing
rEviEWS:
Systems and tipsters Update
Welcome to the monthly round-up of whats hot and whats not in
the world of sports tipsters. This is a snapshot of the systems and
tipsters we are trialling. For a full round-up, please visit
www.wha-treallywinsmoney.co.uk.Whats hot?Alex Rey Sports This is a
tipster from www.tip-sterwarehouse.co.uk. Alex Reys focus is mostly
on football, tennis, snooker and golf. A 50-point betting bank is
required.From 1 January 2014 to date, bets so far have been odds
on, with the occasion each-way bet on the golf. 14.22-points profit
for January 2014 and 6.07-points profit for February 2014 follows
from a poor end to 2013 with a 7-point loss in the last three
months.Only two defeats in January saw an excellent month. Three of
five losing bets in February were higher-risk each-way bets and a
treble. So perhaps Alex Rey should continue to focus on the odds on
bets? An interesting, albeit unexciting, service which does require
a high strike rate given the short odds.Andy Bell Racing This is a
service from www.betfan.com which we began proofing in September.
This horse-racing tipster uses win singles and each-way bets. From
our proofing period, bets of maxi-mum confidence use 10 points, so
an each-way bet risking 10 points will be 5 points each way.Since
testing began:
September: 36-point profit October: 51-point loss November:
86-point profit
December: 100.72-point profitMoving into 2014, January saw a
decent return of 100.7 points, thanks to two each-way winners and
an each-way Trixie really boosting the bank on 28 Janu-ary 2014.
February has been the poorest month for a while with only a 9-point
profit.
The tipping of Jezki and Tour de Champs on the first day of
Cheltenham has produced a profit for March.
This looks to be a service worth following. At 58 per month its
a little pricey and you must factor in the points staking which is
so prevalent of Betfan.com products (it has a nifty way of
inflating the returns if you work up to 10-point stakes).Ante-Post
King From www.tipsterwarehouse.co.uk and costing 19.95 per month
and 39.95 per quarter. A 100-point betting bank is required. A very
interesting service for those who like to bet at some-time-decent
odds.Sports covered so far (testing has begun in January 2014) are
golf, darts, tennis, rugby union, the Winter Olympics and rugby
league. Highlights include Li Na winning the Aussie Open at 14/1,
and Cabrera-Bello 40/1 each-way place (9-point profit).
February has seen a fair share of big wins, the high-lights
being Coetzee in the Joburg Open (golf) and Jason Day in the
Accenture Play on 19 February at 20/1; 42 points profit for
February is superb thanks to the two big wins. This service is in
sharp contrast to the odds-on services offered by Alex Rey and
Goals Galore. With big odds comes the attached long losing runs,
but if the tipster can perform as the Ante-Post King currently is
doing, then you would be a please customer so far in 2014. There
are a few open bets for March which are yet to settle as I write.
The Gambling Don This is another horse racing tipster from
www.betfan.com. Stakes are typically 4 or 5 points to win and 3
points each way, although the Gambling Don increases and decreases
stakes as per his greater confidence in some selections.
As well as traditional bets, the Gambling Don also offers the
odd column tip, such as the one he gave out on 5 January which won
at 5/1. These are not recorded in the official results though, so
bear that in mind.A lack of consistency profit-wise marks out the
Gambling Don: a 24.35-points loss in October was followed by
75.89-points profit in November, then a 36.85-points loss in
December, and January 2014
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16
saw 79.84 points profit (salvaged by three wins in the last
three January bets). February was terrible with a 44.47-point
loss.Please put these points profit figures in the context of the
points staked (as mentioned at the beginning).I am not sure as a
punter I would like such a lurch from profit to loss to profit to
loss on such a con-sistent basis. It is not psychologically
reassuring. A 50-point profit though, since the trial has started,
sug-gests that the long-term focus should be considered.Whats
cold?Favourite Lays www.favouritelays.com This is another service
offered by www.betsfortoday.com and follows their general criteria
for their lay sys-tems, i.e. they do not lay over 3.99 /4 decimal
odds.My trial began on 1 October 2013, and that month produced a
loss of 1.78 points. November improved markedly with a profit of
5.42 points. December ended with a marginal gain of 1.68 points.
January 2014 saw a loss of 7.88 points compounded by a terrible run
of four losing lays in the last two days of the month. This
contrasts with February 2014, where the end of the month saw a run
of four winning lays, which brought a marginal 2.75-point
profit.
That word marginal keeps cropping up. January was a poor start
and the winning months either side have not been earth-shattering.
At 27 per month, you would be in profit since Octo-ber, but only
just, because of the poor January 2014. A lot more required. First
Place Winners www.firstplacewinners.co.uk First Place Winners is a
horse-racing tipster whose selections are backed in the following
manner:
Place 20% of your stake on the horse to win. Place 80% of your
stake on the horse to place.
What is place-only betting?I refer you to the each-way
probability article in this months newsletter. When we bet on a
horse to place, we are betting that the horse will finish
First or second in a 7-runner race. First, second or third in an
8-runner+ race. First, second, third or fourth in a 16+ runner
handicap race.
There seems to be trouble with the website at present as regards
layout. I am not sure whether it is under-going any changes.Testing
began on 1 October 2013, and performance
has been poor to date: a loss of 16 points. This is a service
which has a number of false dawns. The end of February saw an
excellent run, which was ended by a run of nine horses not placing.
8 March saw a winner at 14.4 followed by a winner on 9 March, which
has cut into losses considerably.These false dawns must be
frustrating for subscrib-ers. There is not a high enough strike
rate of horses placing, when not winning. And theres an awful long
way to go to get back the current losses. Goals Galore Goals Galore
is a football tipping service from www.tipsterwarehouse.co.uk. It
is a straightforward backing service, focusing on odds on
selections. The betting bank advised is 50 points, meaning a 10
stake will require a 500 betting bank.Occasionally there are
doubles and trebles, which will increase the potential return to
evens and above. The highest odds selection on record is 3.68
decimal odds for an Over 2.5 Goals treble.Given the title Goals
Galore, the focus is specifi-cally on Over/Under 1.5 Goals and
Over/Under 2.5 Goals bets.This is a service with a high strike rate
(as is expected when you are tipping almost exclusively odds-on
shots). It is ideal, therefore, for those who want some emotional
stability in their betting (remember Lucy Collins article on
emotion?).A 1.76-point loss since the start of the year is not
ideal for a service with that high strike rate. Recent losses have
been accumulated in the Holland second division; in fact nine of
the most recent losers have come from Dutch football. This is a big
haul, given the odds-on status of the goals bets, and improve-ment
is required with, perhaps, a venture into more consistent leagues?
Disappointing so far for a service which should profit
consistently, given the bets are odds on.Thats all from this months
newsletter. So, until next month, have a fun and profitable
time.