WP5.5: the JRC contribution

WP5.5: the JRC contribution

SCOPEUse the JRC impact model (namely, crop yield forecasting model) by running firstly with appropriately downscaled ERA-40 data (by WP3.1,WP5.1) and secondly with fully downscaled and bias corrected probabilistic ensemble hindcasts at of seasonal-to-decadal scales.

JRC contribution:• Run (with both downscaled data set) the crop yield model on the two main European crops: Wheat , Maize and on EU-25 Countries (according to the data availability)

• Analyze and verify the driven by downscaled ERA-40 results with the existing gridded station data set (by JRC)

• Comparison of the results driven by downscaled and bias corrected probabilistic ensemble hindcasts with the two previous

EC - JRCCROP YIELD

FORECASTINGSYSTEM

DBDBMETEOMETEO

DBDBGRIDGRID

DBDBECMWFECMWFAnalysisAnalysis

DBDBECMWFECMWFForecastForecast

Data quality checkprocedure

I nterpolationProcedure(50*50 km)

Down-scalingProcedure

(0.5°)

ExternalUsers

ExternalUsers

Mappingprocedure

Dailydelivery

I nternalUsers

I nternalUsers

Dailydelivery

International Meteo-stations

Network

International Meteo-stations

Network

other MCYFSprocedures

other MCYFSprocedures

WEB

Legend:Legend:Current fluxCurrent fluxFuture fluxFuture flux

Legend:Legend:Current fluxCurrent fluxFuture fluxFuture flux

Meteorological infrastructure

R2=0.69 - RMSE=3309 kg/HaR2=0.58 - RMSE=3484 kg/Ha

Downscaling improves simulated crop parameters skill

DEMETER experience

DEMETER experience

Probability Density Function (PDF)

Beginning of loweringaverages for grid cells w ith comple te records (28 years )

y = -0.0565x + 127.21R2 = 0.4236

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Years

Beg

inni

ng o

f low

erin

g (d

ecad

e)

BEGINNING OF FLOWERINGBeginning of loweringaverages for grid cells w ith comple te records (28 years )

y = -0.0565x + 127.21R2 = 0.4236

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Years

Beg

inni

ng o

f low

erin

g (d

ecad

e)

BEGINNING OF FLOWERING

Changes of the occurrence of beginning of flowering (decade) per year

Preliminary results on existing data set

- Winter wheat -