WP3 WP6 Use case Data Model fusion using phenological data to inform productivity model

WP3 WP6 USE CASEDATA MODEL FUSIONUSING PHENOLOGICAL DATA TO INFORM PRODUCTIVITY MODEL

Andy Fox, David Moore, Jesus Marco de Lucas, Jeff Taylor, and many others.

Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON)

Director Strategic Projects | CEO Office

Earth System Models

2

• Uncertainty in carbon cycle feedbacks stems from structural, parameter, initial conditions and boundary conditions uncertainties

• Data provide both detailed site-based process information and spatial measures of pattern and process that can be integrated into an earth system model

• What would be the essential components of such a system?

– Datasets for evaluation – common measurements, post-processed and saved in common formats served from a CI optimized for interaction with ESMs

– Data products commensurate with model grid cell scales (i.e. FLUXNET GPP product)

– Long-term and accurate to observe trends beyond inter-annual variation

– A interoperable (and common?) model capable of simulating coupled land, ocean, river and atmospheric processes

– A data assimilation system capable of ingesting observations (in real time) to improve model performance

Poor Performance related to Spring and Autumn

3

Approximately 25 different land surface / ecosystem models

Spring

Autumn

Bias in Gross PrimaryProductivity gC m-2 yr-1

Richardson et al 2012 Global Change Biology

Standardized protocols … limited by the availability of data in appropriate formats

Daily timeseries for measures of crop productivity

4

remote sensing can be used to detect “green up

5

6

Workflow and approach

7

Planned Activities

8

Formal Partnership with National Phenological NetworkLifewatch Visiting Scientist(s) – NPN HQ (U Arizona)

– NEON HQ

Planned DeliverablesSurvey and integrate – Observations (notebooks), Spatially explicit

– Hemispherical Photographs, Spatially explicit– Phenological Camera, Temporally explicit

Data fusion (assimilation) – Community Land Model

Proof of concept – Sites with contrasting phenology– Daily estimates– Annual Time series (?)– Validation activities (?)

The National Ecological Observatory Network is a project sponsored by the National Science Foundation and managed under cooperative agreement by NEON Inc.