WP 9 Ecosystem modelling and data assimilation

WP 9 Ecosystem modelling and data WP 9 Ecosystem modelling and data

assimilationassimilation The overall objective is to The overall objective is to improve improve forecasts of the pre-operational forecasts of the pre-operational systems with quantitative evaluation systems with quantitative evaluation of the model performances and to of the model performances and to ensure that products meet the user ensure that products meet the user requirements. requirements.

To contribute the comparability and To contribute the comparability and interoperability of the forecasting interoperability of the forecasting modelsmodels

ApproachApproach

setup a pan European system based on existing setup a pan European system based on existing models.models.

Evaluate model performance in hindcast mode Evaluate model performance in hindcast mode and demonstrate quantitativeand demonstrate quantitativeaaly accurate ly accurate forecast. forecast.

Advance the state of the art in formal data Advance the state of the art in formal data assimilation methods for coastal seas. assimilation methods for coastal seas.

Implement and evaluate data assimilations Implement and evaluate data assimilations systems for combinations of both physical (SST, systems for combinations of both physical (SST, SSH) and biological (Chl, non biotic adsorption).SSH) and biological (Chl, non biotic adsorption).

Demonstrate a forecast capability. Demonstrate a forecast capability.

www.ncof.gov.uk

POLCOMS-ERSEM MRCSCan simulate the seasonal cycle of the shelf seas ecosystem

Now running as a NRT 7 day hindcast at the MetOffice

www.ncof.gov.uk

9.1 Evaluation and refinement of existing 9.1 Evaluation and refinement of existing models with a focus on validation and policy models with a focus on validation and policy

relevant products.relevant products.

The establishment of a community approach The establishment of a community approach between existing pre-operational regional between existing pre-operational regional ecosystem modelling efforts (e.g. Norwegian ecosystem modelling efforts (e.g. Norwegian Sea (NORWECOMS), NW Shelf/Atlantic Sea (NORWECOMS), NW Shelf/Atlantic margin (POLCOMS-ERSEM), Eastern margin (POLCOMS-ERSEM), Eastern Mediterranean (ALERMO), Adriatic, Baltic, Mediterranean (ALERMO), Adriatic, Baltic, Black Sea. Black Sea.

Create platform for exchange best practices Create platform for exchange best practices and tech. transferand tech. transfer

Improve region specific productsImprove region specific products Respond to the user needsRespond to the user needs Development of skill metrics to evaluate Development of skill metrics to evaluate

model performance quantitatively. model performance quantitatively.

9.2 Coastal ecosystem model 9.2 Coastal ecosystem model developmentdevelopment

advance the state of the art in modelling advance the state of the art in modelling for coastal seas. key research areas. for coastal seas. key research areas.

better simulatbetter simulation ofion of primary production primary production and phytoplankton succession. and phytoplankton succession.

better optical models (e.g. spectral light)better optical models (e.g. spectral light) modelling of benthic pelagic coupling modelling of benthic pelagic coupling

including nutrient recycling and including nutrient recycling and resuspension. resuspension.

WP9.1 & WP9.2WP9.1 & WP9.2

Stage 1. evaluation of current Stage 1. evaluation of current systems and design of metricssystems and design of metrics

Stage 2 new Stage 2 new developments developments Stage 3 re evaluation of the Stage 3 re evaluation of the

improved model systemsimproved model systems

9.3 Implementation and evaluation 9.3 Implementation and evaluation of data assimilation systemsof data assimilation systems

This task will build on existing activities in MFSTEP, This task will build on existing activities in MFSTEP, and MERSEA, SEIK in the Eastern Mediterranean, and MERSEA, SEIK in the Eastern Mediterranean, EnKF/SEIK in the NW shelf, OI in the Black Sea. EnKF/SEIK in the NW shelf, OI in the Black Sea.

The focus will be on establishing the best combination The focus will be on establishing the best combination of available NRT data (physical and biological, of available NRT data (physical and biological, remote remote sensingsensing and in situ) for constraining model error and in situ) for constraining model error propagation in each region.propagation in each region.

Impacts of the in-situ and remotely sensed ocean Impacts of the in-situ and remotely sensed ocean

color data will be color data will be investigatedinvestigated

9.4 Development of a pre-operational 9.4 Development of a pre-operational Lower Trophic StateLower Trophic State warning system warning system

for European Seasfor European Seas AimAim develop a pre-operational develop a pre-operational Lower Lower

Trophic State warning system Trophic State warning system in in European seas with a demonstration European seas with a demonstration of a predictive capability of the of a predictive capability of the occurrence of HABoccurrence of HAB, eutrophication, , eutrophication, oxygen depletionoxygen depletion events in European events in European coastal waters. coastal waters.