World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released May 12, 2021, unless otherwise indicated. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
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World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation
Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released May 12, 2021, unless otherwise indicated.
Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
Major Exporters01Import Demand02U.S. Situation by Class03Outlook04
Highlights of USDA’s 2021/22 Wheat S&D Estimates
2021/22 global wheat production is forecast to reach a record 789 MMT
• Production in Canada is forecast at 32.0 MMT, down 3% from 2020/21
• Production in Russia is forecast at 85.0 MMT, in line with 2020/21 production
• U.S. production is expected to increase to 51.0 MMT, up 3% compared to 2020/21
Global consumption forecast at 789 MMT, up 2% from
2020/21• Chinese domestic consumption forecast down 1% to 2020/21
• Domestic consumption in Mexico is forecast to rise to 7.4 MMT, up 3% from 2020/21
• U.S. domestic consumption forecast to increase to 32.5 MMT, in line with the 5-year
average
World wheat trade to reach a record 202 MMT, up 2% from
2020/21, if realized• Russian exports are projected at 40.0 MMT, equal to 2020/21
• Exports from the EU forecast at 33.0 MMT in 2020/21, up 3.0 MMT from 2020/21
• U.S. 2021/22 exports expected to reach 24.5 MMT, down 6% from last year, if realized
3
Highlights of USDA’s 2021/22 Wheat S&D Estimates
World beginning stocks estimated down 2% from 2020/21 to 295 MMT
• Chinese beginning stocks estimated at 145.0 MMT, down 5% from last year
• Indian beginning stocks estimated at 27.2 MMT, 10% higher than 2020/21
• U.S. 2021/22 beginning stocks expected to drop 15% compared to 2020/21 to 23.7 MMT
Global ending stocks projected at 295 MMT, barely changed
from 2020/21 • Expected Chinese ending stocks forecast to fall to 142.0 MMT
• U.S. ending stocks are expected to drop to 21.0 MMT, down 11% from 2020/21
U.S. wheat farm gate price to increase from last year• The average farm gate price of U.S. wheat in 2021/22 is forecast to increase to $6.50/bu
($239/MT), up 30% from last year’s $5.00/bu ($184/MT)
4
5
764 776 789
749
781789
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
MM
T
Production Use
6
*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
68 59 60
373 386 392
442446 452
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
MM
T
Beginning Stocks Production
7
19/20 20/21 21/22
SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 284 299 295
Production 764 776 789
Supply Total 1048 1076 1084
Ending Stocks 299 295 295
TRADE: Exports/Imports 195 200 202
DEMAND: Food & Seed 609 624 630
Feed & Residual 140 157 159
Use Total 749 781 789
8
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
57 50 45
119 15
76 88 89
140152 145
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MM
T
Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China
9
*Ending stocks
4038 37
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Perc
en
t
10
*Ending stocks
24.0 23.9 23.9
21
22
23
24
25
26
Perc
en
t
11
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
50 45 42
9 15 18
88 89 92
152 145 142
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MM
T
5 Major Exporters Black Sea Other China
12
Exporters, 59.9
Importers, 94.3
China, 159
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5
China, 164
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5
China, 164
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5
China, 164
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5
China, 164
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5
China, 164
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5
China, 164
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5
China, 164
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5
China, 164
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5
China, 164
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5
China, 164
Exporters, 59.8
Importers, 89.5
China, 155
Exporters, 59.8
Importers, 89.5
China, 155
Exporters, 60.1
Importers, 90.7
China, 150
Exporters, 60.3
Importers, 89.8
China, 145
Exporters, 60.7
Importers, 91.8
China, 142
13
*Annual average, source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report
50 45 42
9 15 18
240 235 234
$231 $216
$262
$125
$175
$225
$275
$325
$375
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
US
D/M
T
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW Price*
Major Exporters
01
15
*Exportable Supplies = (Beginning Stocks + Production) – Domestic Consumption
51 47 42
2218 21
41 51 55
7 9 9
46 34 37
2931 27
11 27 25
1513 17
0
50
100
150
200
250
MM
T
Argentina
Australia
Canada
EU
Kazakhstan
Russia
Ukraine
U.S.
16
6.0 5.5 3.8
32.735.2
32.0
0.70.6
0.7
9.3 9.9 9.2
24.6
27.5
23.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
17
5.5
3.8 3.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
MM
T
18
4.4 2.9 5.6
15.2
33.0
27.0
0.9
0.2
0.2
8.5 8.5 8.0
9.1
22.020.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
19
2.9
5.6
4.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
MM
T
20
1.7 1.7 2.5
19.8
17.6
20.5
6.3 6.4 6.5
13.5
10.5
13.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
21
1.7
2.5
3.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
MM
T
22
15.8 12.0 9.2
138.7
125.9134.0
5.6
5.66.0
108.4 104.4 106.5
39.830.0 33.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
23
12.0
9.29.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
MM
T
24
7.8 7.212.1
73.6
85.485.0
0.3
0.50.5
40.0 41.5 42.5
34.539.5 40.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
25
7.2
12.1
15.1
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
MM
T
26
1.6 1.5 1.5
29.2
25.4
29.0
8.3 8.6 9.0
21.0
17.0
20.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Domestic use Exports
27
1.51.5
1.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
MM
T
28
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
14.7 13.4 19.1
129.9139.4
141.98.18.6
9.0
76.0 78.0 79.4
63.3 64.468.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
29
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
34.539.5 40.0
21.017.0
20.0
7.0 7.58.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
MM
T
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
30
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
13.4
19.1
21.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
MM
T
31
29.4 28.0 23.7
52.649.7
50.9
2.92.9
3.4
30.6 30.6 32.5
26.3 26.3 24.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic Use Exports
32
28.0
23.7
21.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
MM
T
Import Demand
02
34
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
MM
T
2020/21 2021/22
35
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of May 31, 2020
3.16
2.85 2.78
1.51 1.45
1.19 1.13
0.79 0.79 0.72
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MM
T
36
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of May 6, 2021
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
MM
T
2019/20 2020/21
37
0
50
100
150
200
250
MM
T
"Other" China FSU EU
U.S. Situation by Class
03
39
*Source: June 2020 USDA Acreage Report
23.8 23.2 22.5 21.5
10.3 12.7 12.011.5
5.615.89
5.22 5.63
4.024.12
4.12 4.12
2.312.06
1.34 1.68
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Milli
on
Ac
res
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
40
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of May 6, 2021
9.87
7.74
5.22
2.40
0.94
8.70
7.66
6.64
1.84
0.66
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
HRW HRS White SRW Durum
MM
T
2019/20 2020/21
41
14.0 13.8
23.0 17.9
10.29.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
Class information for 2021/22 is not yet published
42
7.2 7.6
14.214.4
1.4 1.4
7.3 7.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
Class information for 2021/22 is not yet published
43
4.3 2.9
6.5
7.2
0.10.2
2.5
1.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
Class information for 2021/22 is not yet published
44
2.4 2.6
7.4
8.2
0.2
0.2
5.1
7.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
Class information for 2021/22 is not yet published
45
1.5 1.1
1.51.9
1.1 1.1
1.1
0.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
Class information for 2021/22 is not yet published
46
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
MM
T
15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21
Class information for 2021/22 is not yet published
47
HRW HRS SRW
19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21
Beginning Stocks 14.0 13.8 7.16 7.62 4.30 2.86
Production 23.0 17.9 14.2 14.4 6.53 7.24Supply Total
37.1 31.8 22.8 23.4 10.94 10.3
Domestic Use 13.1 11.2 7.84 8.68 5.55 5.74
Exports 10.2 9.1 7.29 7.48 2.50 1.77
Use Total 23.3 20.3 15.1 16.2 8.08 7.51
Ending Stocks 13.8 11.5 7.62 7.27 2.86 2.78
Stocks-to-Use 59% 57% 50% 45% 35% 37%
Class information for 2021/22 is not yet published
48
White Durum Total
19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21
Beginning Stocks 2.40 2.59 1.50 1.14 29.4 28.0
Production 7.43 8.22 1.47 1.88 52.6 49.7Supply Total
10.0 11.00 4.08 4.08 84.8 80.5
Domestic Use 2.31 2.48 1.80 2.56 30.6 30.6
Exports 5.09 7.08 1.14 0.82 26.3 26.3
Use Total 7.40 9.55 2.94 3.37 56.9 56.8
Ending Stocks 2.59 1.44 1.14 0.71 28.0 23.7
Stocks-to-Use 35% 15% 39% 21% 49% 42%
Class information for 2021/22 is not yet published
49
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 7, 2021
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
$/M
etr
ic T
on
HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
50
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 7, 2021
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
$/M
etr
ic T
on
HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW 10.5% Max
51
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 7, 2021
200
225
250
275
300
325
$/M
etr
ic T
on
SW 10.5% Max SRW
52
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 7, 2021
20
40
60
80
100
$/M
etr
ic T
on
HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
53
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 7, 2021
50
60
70
80
90
100
$/M
etr
ic T
on
HRS 14 HRW 12
Outlook
04
55
15.1 14.9 15.1
52.649.7 50.9
3.5
3.3 3.4
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
MT
/hec
tare
Pro
du
cti
on
(M
MT
) an
d H
arv
este
d A
rea
(mh
)
Harvested Area Production Yield
56
47.845.2 44.3
88.9
89.792.0
89.2
76.1
83.8
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Milli
on
Ac
res
Wheat All Corn for Grain Soybeans
577
64
77
6
78
9
74
9 78
1
78
9
195200
202
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
Tra
de (
MM
T)
Pro
du
cti
on
an
d U
se (
MM
T)
Production Use Trade
581
11
7
11
28 11
90
11
30
11
46
11
73
172187
197
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Tra
de (
MM
T)
Pro
du
cti
on
an
d U
se (
MM
T)
Production Use Trade
593
39
36
3 38
6
35
7 36
9 38
1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Tra
de (
MM
T)
Pro
du
cti
on
an
d U
se (
MM
T)
Production Use Trade
60
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, May 7, 2021
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
$/M
etr
ic t
on
PNW to Japan Panamax Gulf to Egypt Panamax
Highlights of USDA’s 2021/22 Wheat S&D Estimates
World beginning stocks estimated down 2% from
2020/21 to 295 MMT• Chinese beginning stocks estimated at 145.0 MMT, down 5% from last year
• Indian beginning stocks estimated at 27.2 MMT, 10% higher than 2020/21
• U.S. 2021/22 beginning stocks expected to drop 15% compared to 2020/21 to 23.7
MMT
Global ending stocks projected at 295 MMT, barely
changed from 2020/21 • Expected Chinese ending stocks forecast to fall to 142.0 MMT
• U.S. ending stocks are expected to drop to 21.0 MMT, down 11% from 2020/21
U.S wheat farm gate price to increase from last year• The average farm gate price of U.S. wheat in 2021/22 is forecast to increase to $6.50/bu
($239/MT), up 30% from last year’s $5.00/bu ($184/MT)
61
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