World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released July 10, 2020, unless otherwise indicated. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
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World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation
Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released July 10, 2020, unless otherwise
indicated. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
Major Exporters01Import Demand02U.S. Situation by Class03Outlook04
Highlights of USDA’s 2020/21 Supply and Demand Estimates
2020/21 global wheat production to jump to record 769 MMT• Wheat production in the European Union (EU) to fall 10% on the year on persistent spring and
summer dryness• Russian wheat production to increase 4% from last year to 76.5 MMT • U.S. wheat production to decrease 5% from last year to 49.6 MMT on lower yields and
decreased planted area
Global consumption forecast at 752 MMT, the highest on record• Indonesian domestic consumption to reach 10.4 MMT, 2% more than the 5-year average • Domestic consumption in Brazil to reach 12.1 MMT, up 2% from the 5-year average • U.S. domestic consumption to decrease to 30.3 MMT, up 2% from last year
World wheat trade to match last year’s record of 188 MMT• Exports from Russia to rebound 4% from last year to 36.0 MMT • Ukrainian wheat exports to fall 15% on the year to 17.5 MMT on persistent dryness during the
growing season• U.S. 2020/21 exports to fall to 25.9 MMT, 2% below the 2019/20 estimate of 26.3 MMT
3
Highlights of USDA’s 2020/21 Supply and Demand Estimates
World beginning stocks jumped 6% from 2019/20 to 297 MMT, 14% greater than the 5-year average
• Indian beginning stocks reached 24.0 MMT, the highest since the 2013/14 record• Australian beginning stocks dropped to 3.54 MMT, the lowest in more than 10 years• U.S. 2020/21 beginning stocks dropped 3% year-over-year to 28.4 MMT
Global ending stocks projected at record 315 MMT, 7% higher than last year and 16% greater than the 5-year average
• Expected Chinese ending stocks to reach a record 162 MMT, 7% greater than last year and 28% more than the 5-year average
• U.S. ending stocks are expected to decrease 6% from last year to 25.2 MMT, the lowest in 6 years
U.S. wheat farm gate price to remain stable year-over- year*• The average farm gate price of wheat in 2020/21 is forecast to hold steady at $4.60/bu
($169/MT)
4
5
731765 769
735748 752
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
MM
T
Production Use
6
*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
72 66 61
368 389 387
440454 447
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
MM
T
Beginning Stocks Production
7
18/19 19/20 20/21SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 284 280 296
Production 731 765 773Supply Total 1015 1045 1069Ending Stocks 280 297 316
TRADE: Exports/Imports 174 188 188
DEMAND: Food & Seed 596 607 617Feed & Residual 140 140 136Use Total 735 748 753
8
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
57 55 51
16 11 10
81 74 85
131 140151
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MM
T
Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China
9
*Ending stocks
3840
42
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Perc
ent
10
*Ending stocks
23
24
25
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Perc
ent
11
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
55 51 50
11 10 11
74 85 92
140151
162
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MM
T
5 Major Exporters Black Sea Other China
12
Exporters, 60.7
Importers, 92.0China, 162
13
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, July 2, 2020
55 51 50
11 10 11
214236
254
$231
$216 $212
$125
$175
$225
$275
$325
$375
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
USD/
MT
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW Price*
Major Exporters
01
15
*Exportable Supplies = (Beginning Stocks + Production) – Domestic Consumption
51 52 48
17 22 19
43 41 43
10 7 8
3045
33
3028
30
1412
2214
15 16
0
50
100
150
200
250
MM
T
Argentina
Australia
Canada
EU
Kazakhstan
Russia
Ukraine
U.S.
16
6.7 6.0 5.5
32.2 32.3 34.0
0.5 0.7 0.5
9.010.4 9.8
24.4 23.224.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
17
6.05.5 5.6
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
MM
T
18
5.5 5.4 3.5
17.615.2
26.00.5
0.5
0.2
9.2 8.4 7.1
9.0 9.2
17.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
19
5.4
3.5
5.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
MM
T
20
0.5 1.7 1.7
19.519.7
21.0
6.1 6.3 6.2
12.213.5
14.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
21
1.7 1.72.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
MM
T
22
13.9 12.0 11.8
137
155
140
5.8
4.9
5.5
121 122 118
23.3
38.027.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
23
12.0 11.8 11.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
MM
T
24
12.0 7.8 7.3
71.7 73.6 76.5
0.4 0.4 0.5
40.5 40.0 40.5
35.8 34.5 36.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
25
7.87.3
7.8
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
MM
T
26
1.2 1.6 1.2
25.1
29.2
26.5
8.8 9.1 8.8
16.0
20.5
17.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Domestic use Exports
27
1.61.2
1.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
MM
T
28
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
21.2 14.8 14.0
124 130 131
7.8 7.9 7.9
77.2 77.2 77.4
61.0 61.9 61.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
29
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
35.8 34.5 36.0
16.0 20.5 17.5
8.3 6.0 7.1
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
MM
T
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
30
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
14.814.0 14.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
MM
T
31
29.9 29.4 28.4
51.3 52.349.6
3.7 2.9 3.8
30.0 29.8 30.3
25.5 26.3 25.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic Use Exports
32
29.428.4
25.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
MM
T
Import Demand
02
34
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.011.012.013.0
MM
T
2019/20 2020/21
35
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of May 31, 2020
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MM
T
36
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of July 2, 2020
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.3
MM
T
2019/20 2020/21
37
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
MM
T
"Other" China FSU EU
U.S. Situation by Class
03
39
*Source: June 2020 USDA Acreage Report
23.8 23.2 22.5 21.5
10.3 12.7 12.0 11.5
5.615.89 5.22 5.63
4.024.12
4.12 4.12
2.312.06
1.34 1.50
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Mill
ion
Acre
s
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
40
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of July 2, 2020
2.70
1.85
1.32
0.83
0.16
2.65
2.02
1.43
0.62
0.23
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
HRW HRS White SRW Durum
MM
T
2019/20 2020/21
41
14.0 14.2
22.7 19.3
10.2 10.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
42
7.2 7.6
14.2 13.7
1.4 1.9
7.3 7.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
43
4.3 2.9
6.5
7.6
0.1 0.3
2.5
2.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
44
2.4 2.6
7.47.5
0.2 0.1
5.1 4.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
45
1.5 1.2
1.5
1.5
1.11.3
1.1
0.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
46
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
MM
T
15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21
47
HRW HRS SRW19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21
Beginning Stocks 14.0 14.2 7.16 7.62 4.30 2.86Production 22.7 19.3 14.2 13.7 6.50 7.62Supply Total 36.8 33.6 22.8 23.2 10.91 10.8
Domestic Use 12.4 11.6 7.87 8.49 5.55 5.50Exports 10.2 10.5 7.29 7.35 2.50 2.45Use Total 22.6 22.1 15.2 15.8 8.06 7.95
Ending Stocks 14.2 11.5 7.62 7.35 2.86 2.80
Stocks- to-Use 63% 52% 50% 46% 35% 35%
48
White Durum Total 19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21
Beginning Stocks 2.40 2.59 1.50 1.17 29.4 28.4Production 7.40 7.48 1.47 1.52 52.3 49.6Supply Total 10.0 10.21 4.08 4.03 84.5 81.8
Domestic Use 2.29 2.45 1.77 2.26 29.8 30.3Exports 5.09 4.90 1.14 0.68 26.3 25.9Use Total 7.38 7.35 2.91 2.94 56.1 56.2
Ending Stocks 2.59 2.86 1.17 1.09 28.4 25.6
Stocks- to-Use 35% 39% 40% 37% 51% 46%
49
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, July 2, 2020
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
$/M
etric
Ton
HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
50
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, July 2, 2020
200
225
250
275
300
$/M
etric
Ton
HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW 10.5% Max
51
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, July 2, 2020
175
200
225
250
275
$/M
etric
Ton
SW 10.5% Max SRW
52
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, July 2, 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
$/M
etric
Ton
HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
53
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, July 2, 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
$/M
etric
Ton
HRS 14 HRW 12
Outlook
04
55
16.0 15.0 14.8
51.3 52.349.6
3.2
3.5
3.3
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
MT/
hect
are
Prod
uctio
n (M
MT)
and
Har
vest
ed A
rea
(mh)
Harvested Area Production Yield
56
47.845.2 44.3
88.9
89.7 92.089.2
76.1
83.8
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mill
ion
Acre
s
Wheat All Corn for Grain Soybeans
5773
1 765
769
735 74
8
752
174
188 188
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d Us
e (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
5811
23
1114 11
63
1126
1120 11
55
181171
182
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d Us
e (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
5936
1
337 36
3
343 34
8 364
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d Us
e (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
60
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, July 2, 2020
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
$/M
etric
ton
PNW to Japan Gulf to Egypt Gulf to Nigeria
Highlights of USDA’s 2020/21 Supply and Demand Estimates
2020/21 global wheat production to jump to record 769 MMT• Wheat production in the EU to fall 10% on the year on persistent spring and summer dryness• Russian wheat production to increase 4% from last year to 76.5 MMT • U.S. wheat production to decrease 5% from last year to 49.6 MMT on lower yields and
decreased planted area
Global ending stocks projected at record 315 MMT, 7% higher than last year and 16% greater than the 5-year average
• Expected Chinese ending stocks to reach a record 162 MMT, 7% greater than last year and 28% more than the 5-year average
• U.S. ending stocks are expected to decrease 6% from last year to 25.2 MMT, the lowest in 6 years
World consumption and trade both forecast to reach record levels• Total global wheat consumption to reach an all-time high of 752 MMT• Total global trade to reach a record 188 MMT, in line with last year’s record• U.S. 2020/21 domestic consumption to increase 2% from last year to 30.3 MMT
61
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