World Trade Center, NYC. Pentagon Osama bin-Laden Bin-Laden videos 1996 fatwa 1998 fatwa Al-Qaeda Training Manual (from Dept. of Justice)Al-Qaeda Training.

World Trade Center, NYC

Pentagon

Osama bin-Laden

• Bin-Laden videos• 1996 fatwa• 1998 fatwa• Al-Qaeda Training

Manual (from Dept. of Justice)

Ayman al-Zawahiri• Knights Under the Prophet’s Banner

Khalid Sheikh Mohamed

Origins of Recent Terrorism

• Iranian Revolution• (1978-1979)• provides inspiration foreign fighters• formation go home,• of Afghan mujahadin form new groups• or join existing

groups, create a • global terror• Ideological legacy USSR invades US, China, Pakistan Soviets network• of radical Islamic Afghanistan Egypt, Saudi Arabia, withdraw • thought 1979 and others funding, 1989• provides ideology supplying, and training• and inspiration mujahadin and jihadis

• OBL and others recruit• Saudi funded religious schools volunteers al-Qaeda (global)• (madrassas) in Middle East from madrassas Abu Sayyaf (Phil.)• and Asia (1970s-1980s) in M. E. and Asia AQ in N. Africa (Alg)• provides recruits with ideology (foreign fighters HAMAS

or jihadis) Islamic Jihad IMU

• Jemaah Islamiah PIJ Bosnia, Chechnya, Kashmir…

Time

Roots of Radical Sunni IdeologyAnti-colonial nationalismIsrael-Palestine issue

Ahmad ibn Taymiyyah (Damascas) 1263-1328 Deobandi Islamreturning to original 1867 British-held Indiasources of Islam anti-colonial Islam Abu al-Ala Maududi Abdullah Azzam

1903-1979 Palestinian 1941-1989Pakistan Intellectual mentor of OBLPurification of Islam is a keyto independence from British

• Salafism• Late 1800s Rashid Rida, Egypt Muslim Brotherhood Sayyid Qutb• return to 1866-1935 Egypt 1928 1906-1966• original sources only Salafi beliefs Hassan al-Banna Egypt Al-Qaeda• can free Muslims rejects British colonialism member of MB Osama bin-

Laden from colonialism rejects “westernization” of Islam purify Islam Ayman al-Zawahri

• rejects church/state separation violence if necessary• anti-Israel

Muhammad ibn Abd al Wahhab anti-US(Arabian Peninsula) “founder” of “Sunni 1703-1792 radicalism” return to original sources Milestonesrejects Islamic pluralismcondoned violence against apostates Abd-Al-Salam Al-Farajanti-Ottoman, seen as foreign occupiers, apostates 1932 Saudi Arabia becomes independent Egypt, 1952-1982

• unifies Arabian regions and families disciple of Qutbunder the al-Saud family

The Neglected Duty• Wahhabi Islam becomes the official creed• Late 1700s• Al-Saud family alliance with Wahhabi movement•

Saudi-sponsored madrassasglobally, by late 20th century-

Explaining the Growth of Extremist IdeasPolitical Factors *Technological factorsAuthoritarian government advances in communicationCorrupt government computers for info storageLack of civil rights; no democracy internet and e-mailLack of human rights; no individual freedoms ease of travelLiberal and moderate ideas crushed ease of global financial transactionsRadical ideas crushed (Egypt) advantages of networksRadical ideas encouraged (Saudi Arabia) globalizationPrison torture SOPControlled press spreads ruling ideologyAnti-West and anti-US Social FactorsColonialism in past *Rapid economic changeIsraeli-Palestinian conflict *Population growthPan-Islamic ideas Lack of social and economic mobilityPan-Arab ideas *More university education; lack of jobs*Failures of secular nationalism (Syria, Iraq) *Generation with a lack of identityNo outlet for moderate dissent or debate *Expectations of success; lack of successStrong religious traditions (exploited by radicals) *Expectations of change; lack of

change

Economic FactorsPovertySmall wealthy elite *Geopolitical Factors*Expectations of wealth through oil Rapid wealth creation in Middle East *Rising population Iranian revolution*Massive underemployment GlobalizationSocialist economies Soviet Invasion of AfghanistanClosed economies Collapse of Cold War*Knowledge of wealth in other societies Instability of shift to post-cold war world

*Temporal Factors: These variables explain why events happened when they did. Many people ask why radical Islam developed, but we need to ask why it developed and why it developed when it developed.

Growth of extremist ideas

Khobar Towers, 1996

Nairobi, August 7, 1998

USS Cole October 2000

Bali Bombing October 2002

Marriott Hotel, Jakarta, IndonesiaAugust 2003

Madrid Bombing, March 11, 2004

Australian Embassy Jakarta Sept. 2004

London, July 2005

London and Glascow Attacks, June 2007

Algerian Coast Guard BarracksSeptember 2007

Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007(Washington Post)

Politics, not Religion

• Important:• This does not represent the average

Muslim• Timothy McVeigh was not the average

Christian• AQ is a far greater threat to Muslims than

to Americans• This is a political movement that uses a

twisted version of Islam

The Purpose of Terrorism

1. Political Agenda

2. Cause pain and fear: violence to further political agenda

3. Targeting civilians

4. Publicity

The Terrorist “Logic”

Terrorist Violence

Causes pain and fear

in targeted audience

Publicizes a political

agenda

Public demands change in gov’t policy

Coercion of gov’t;

pressure to change policy

Change in

gov’t policy

The “Logic” at Work: Spain 2004• Spain supports US in Iraq

• People’s Party in favor of Spanish intervention

• Socialist Worker’s Party wants to withdraw;

• AQ warns Spain to leave or face reprisal;

• Parliamentary elections on 3/14;

• PP favored

The “Logic” at Work: Spain 2004

March 11 attack on

train station;200 killed;

1400 wounded

Voters fear more

reprisals

Debate on Spanish

Iraq policy takes

center stage

Electoral Surprise;PP loses; Worker’s Party wins

PP blames ETA; fears linkage of

bombs to Iraq policy

New gov’tled by

Worker’s Party

Changes policy

Terrorism is Not New• First Modern Wave: political assassinations• Alexander II Pres. Garfield Pres. McKinley

1881 1881 1901

Terrorism is not Foreign

King David Hotel 1946

Munich 1972

Oklahoma City, April 1995

Types of Networks

chain star or hub

all-channel hybrid

Cell OperationsFinance, Operations, Training, Logistics,

Planning

FF

T T

P

P

T

F

P

LL

L

O

O

O

Religion

• McVeigh Asahara Kahane

Ideas and Politics

• A spectrum for political Islam

Liberal Orthodox

IndonesiaMalaysiaTurkey

TalibanIran ClergySudan gov’t

AQIranian peoplePakistan gov’t

Saudi gov’t

IslamistsFundamentalists

EgyptianGov’t Egyptian

people

Geography of Islam

• Non-Middle eastern states

• Indonesia 215 m• Pakistan 160 m• India 134 m• Bangladesh 123 m• Turkey 70 m• Nigeria 65 m• Sudan 41 m• Afghanistan 31 m

• Middle Eastern states• Egypt 70 m• Iran 61 m• Algeria 32 m• Morocco 32 m• Iraq 25 m• Saudi Arabia 22 m• Syria 16.2 m• Jordan 4.6

Iraq: Overview

• The Bush 43 WMD argument

• Planting the seed of democracy

• Unfinished business

• Iraq and the war on terrorism

• Operational Questions

After the Invasion:Reassessing the US Argument

• The Bush 43 WMD argument– But No WMD were found– Captured Iraqi documents reveal the Iraqi WMD

programs were aimed at defending against Iran, not for use against the US

• Planting the seed of democracy– But civil war and near complete collapse of the state

follow• Iraq and the war on terrorism

– US intelligence reveals that Iraq had minimal ties to Palestinian terrorism and no operational ties to al-Qaeda

Invasion Results

• May 1, 2003– “Mission Accomplished”

• Insurgency begins• Shi’a vs. Sunni vs. Kurd• Shi’a extremists• Sunni extremists• Foreign Fighters

– Al-Qaeda in Iraq – Abu Musab al-Zarqawi

• Civil War?

Questions

• How could the US have been so wrong about Iraq WMD?

• How could the US have been so wrong about aftermath?

• We’re there: what do we do?