World Population Problems Nature of the World Population Problem Nature of the World Population Problem –Stable population for 8,000 years –Survival precarious.

World Population ProblemsWorld Population Problems

• Nature of the World Population Nature of the World Population ProblemProblem

– Stable population for 8,000 yearsStable population for 8,000 years

– Survival precarious for most peopleSurvival precarious for most people

– Since 1650 there has been rapid Since 1650 there has been rapid population growthpopulation growth

World Population Growth

Population variablesPopulation variables

• Population increases are a function of Population increases are a function of three variables, i.e. fertility, mortality three variables, i.e. fertility, mortality and migrationand migration

• Population formula:Population formula:– Population (now) = Population (then) Population (now) = Population (then)

+ (births-deaths) +/- Migration+ (births-deaths) +/- Migration

• World Population GrowthWorld Population Growth

– 8,000 BC to 1650 AD = 500 million8,000 BC to 1650 AD = 500 million– 1650 AD to 2000 AD = 5.6 billion1650 AD to 2000 AD = 5.6 billion– 50,000 new mouths to feed every 50,000 new mouths to feed every

year in first periodyear in first period– 50,000 new mouths to feed every 6 50,000 new mouths to feed every 6

minutes today.minutes today.– 90 million people added every year 90 million people added every year

todaytoday

• Malthus’ Explanation of Population Malthus’ Explanation of Population GrowthGrowth

– Thomas Malthus Thomas Malthus Essay on PopulationEssay on Population– Population grows as exponential rate Population grows as exponential rate

(2,4,8,16,32,64)(2,4,8,16,32,64)– Food production grows at arithmetical Food production grows at arithmetical

rate (1,2,3,4,5)rate (1,2,3,4,5)– Population increases faster that food Population increases faster that food

productionproduction

• Validity of Malthus’ PredictionsValidity of Malthus’ Predictions

– Malthus proved to be poor prophet in Malthus proved to be poor prophet in 1818thth and 19 and 19thth C C

– Famine, disease, war did not result in Famine, disease, war did not result in decreased world populationdecreased world population

– Was Malthus premature?Was Malthus premature?– Paul Erlich’s Paul Erlich’s Population Bomb Population Bomb

(neo-Malthusian position) vs.(neo-Malthusian position) vs.Julian Simon’s Julian Simon’s Population as the Population as the Ultimate ResourceUltimate Resource. (cornucopian . (cornucopian position)position)

Neo-Malthusian positionNeo-Malthusian position

• Population growth straining the world’s resourcesPopulation growth straining the world’s resources• Destruction of forests for development and/or Destruction of forests for development and/or

food productionfood production• Energy and mineral consumption taxes resourcesEnergy and mineral consumption taxes resources• Over-fishingOver-fishing• Widening gap between rich and poorWidening gap between rich and poor• Inadequate development, refugee problems, Inadequate development, refugee problems,

donor fatiguedonor fatigue• Belief in environmental responsibility leading to Belief in environmental responsibility leading to

sustainable growthsustainable growth

Cornucopian positionCornucopian position

• Life expectancy doubled in 20Life expectancy doubled in 20thth C (30yrs to 60 yrs) C (30yrs to 60 yrs)

• Global health and productivity expandingGlobal health and productivity expanding

• Overpopulation is scare talk of environmentalistsOverpopulation is scare talk of environmentalists

• The real issue of poverty not breedingThe real issue of poverty not breeding

• Technology will solve all human problemsTechnology will solve all human problems

• Population growth creates jobs, opens markets, Population growth creates jobs, opens markets, expands opportunitiesexpands opportunities

• Ecologists want sustainability; cornucopian Ecologists want sustainability; cornucopian economists want economic growth, exploitation of economists want economic growth, exploitation of markets and resourcesmarkets and resources

• Reasons for Rapid Population GrowthReasons for Rapid Population Growth

– The Demographic transition (from high The Demographic transition (from high birth rate and high death rate to low birth rate and high death rate to low birth rate and low death rate)birth rate and low death rate)

– Population growth is a function of three Population growth is a function of three variables: fertility, mortality and variables: fertility, mortality and migrationmigration

– Formula: Population now = Population Formula: Population now = Population (then) +/- (births-deaths) +/- migration(then) +/- (births-deaths) +/- migration

• Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition– Stage IStage I

•Preindustrial economyPreindustrial economy

•High birth rates and high death ratesHigh birth rates and high death rates

•Stable population that grows slowlyStable population that grows slowly

•Large number of children who perform Large number of children who perform useful work in fieldsuseful work in fields

•Children provide social security system in Children provide social security system in old ageold age

•Life expectancy low; security dependent Life expectancy low; security dependent on your familyon your family

– Stage IIStage II•High birth rates with falling death ratesHigh birth rates with falling death rates

• Improvements in public health, Improvements in public health, sanitation, medicine that prolongs lifesanitation, medicine that prolongs life

•Productivity of agriculture improvesProductivity of agriculture improves

•Opportunity for alternative employment Opportunity for alternative employment due to industrial developmentdue to industrial development

• Industrialization stimulates urbanization Industrialization stimulates urbanization and specialization of laborand specialization of labor

– Stage IIIStage III•Birth rate declines rapidlyBirth rate declines rapidly

•Smaller families due to urbanization and Smaller families due to urbanization and demands for educationdemands for education

•Children are more of a liability financially Children are more of a liability financially and economicallyand economically

•Population growth declines dramaticallyPopulation growth declines dramatically

– Stage IVStage IV•Birth rates and death rates fallBirth rates and death rates fall

•Population stabilizes at lower levelPopulation stabilizes at lower level

•Demand for education highDemand for education high

•Modern economy and urban environment Modern economy and urban environment make large families less necessarymake large families less necessary

•Governments adopt social security Governments adopt social security programsprograms