World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Workshop Summary and Recommendations.

20 April 2010 Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy Aspects

Joint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and waterWorking together in weather, climate and water

Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers:

Workshop Summary and Recommendations

Mannava Sivakumar

Jim Salinger

Luiz Claudio Costa

WMO: Climate and Water www.wmo.int

WMO



• Introduction

• Workshop Sessions

• Summary of Workshop Sessions

• Recommendations

Presentation



• To identify and assess the weather and climate risks and uncertainties in different regions of the world which affect the livlihoods of farmers e.g. extreme climatic events (droughts, floods, cyclonic systems, temperature and wind disturbances etc.), climate variability and climate change, lack of timely information on weather and climate risks and uncertainties etc.,

• To review and summarize various weather and climate services for the farming community such as timely weather and climate forecasts to facilitate on-farm operational decisions, agrometeorological monitoring and forecasts for pests and disease control, agrometeorological adaptation strategies to cope with climate change, agroclimatic zoning for crop planning etc.,

•

Specific Objectives of the Workshop



• To evaluate the current means of communication of various weather and climate services to the farming community in different regions of the world and suggest the ways and means to implement new and/or appropriate tools for dissemination of the weather and climate products and services, especially in regions where farmers are most vulnerable to the vagaries of weather and climate extremes

• To review climate change risk management in adapting strategic plans to reduce the potential impacts of climate change for farmers;

• To review, through appropriate case studies, the use of weather risk insurance strategies and schemes to reduce the vulnerability of the farming communities to weather and climate risks;

Specific Objectives of the Workshop (2)



• To obtain feedback from farmers from different regions of the world on the extent to which current weather and climate services assist them in coping with various weather and climate risks and enhance the productivity of crops on their farms; and

• To discuss and recommend suitable policy options to enhance weather and climate services for the farming community in different parts of the world.

Specific Objectives of the Workshop (3)



• Livelihood Crisis of Farmers – Regional Perspectives, with particular reference to weather and climate risks and uncertainties

• Weather and Climate Services for the Farming Community

• Provision of Weather and Climate Services to Farming Community

• Climate Change Adaptation – A Special Symposium

Workshop Sessions



• Risk Management and Weather Risk Insurance Strategies and Schemes

• Farmers Forum on Improving Weather and Climate Services for the Farming Community

• Enhancing Weather and Climate Services for Farmers – Policy Options

Workshop Sessions (2)



Key messages related to risks/uncertainties:• Many factors affect farming, including weather, climate and water

factors

• Regions around the world face many common risks and have similar coping strategies, but differ considerably in the ability to apply technological solutions, in training opportunities, and in levels of systematic support

• Vulnerability and resilience vary widely around the world

• While much is known about hazards, and there is some reasonable skill in prediction at different time scales, insufficient work has been done to connect risks to socio-economic vulnerability and livelihoods of farmers

Livelihood Crisis of Farmers – Regional Perspectives (1)



Factors affecting agricultural vulnerability (1):– Population dynamics;– Social factors (political stability, health status, poverty..);– Economic factors (agricultural markets, trade,

investment policies, access to credit/financing);– Lack of insurance;– Land condition, land ownership, access to water, and

grazing;– Poor infrastructure and transportation; etc.– …..continued….




Factors affecting agriculture vulnerability (2):• Climate is one of the main factors shaping the

livelihood strategies of farmers and contributing, directly and indirectly, to their crisis.

• Climate-related vulnerability is linked to:– Variability and change in weather, climate, water and

environmental conditions, especially hazards/extremes;– Lack of timely, understandable, actionable information

on weather, climate, water and environmental conditions, predictions and projections;

– Inadequate level of awareness of climate-related risks (lack of knowledge);

– Poor communications in rural areas, affecting transmission of information and warnings;




Factors affecting agriculture vulnerability (3):

Climate-related vulnerability is linked to:– Inadequate dialogue between providers and

users of climate-relevant information; – Lack of strong community networks;– Lack of tools with which to facilitate practical

application of risk management concepts;• Early warnings and agrometeorological

services play a key role in reducing disaster risks and improving the living standards.




Farming communities around the world protect livelihoods through a variety of risk management strategies:

– Alternative cropping; crop diversification; varying planting dates;

– Farming in multiple locations; – Off-farm alternative income generation; maintaining an

‘emergency’ fund;– Soil and water conservation; – Self-help systems e.g. agricultural cooperatives;– Increasing self-sufficiency, resilience and viable locally-

driven options;– Financial risk transfer techniques (Crop yield/production

insurance);




The Agricultural Meteorology community helps farmers through:

– Advice/guidance through agrometeorological extension services;

– Development and delivery of pertinent weather, climate and water information; early warnings and forecasts;

– Applied research on the links between weather, climate, and agriculture;

– Public awareness campaigns and training;– Development and application of decision-support

systems etc.,




Weather predictions are essential for operational decision making by farmers: – short range forecasts (2-3 days), can be relied on for warnings

against disaster occurrences including hailstorms, squalls, flooding, etc.

– medium range forecasts (7-10 days), are typically used to schedule irrigations, apply fertilizers and pesticides, and determine dates of harvest and storage.

– extended range forecasts (10-30 days) generally allow sufficient lead time for determination of sowing dates and for initiating water conservation.

• Users need to understand the weather prediction products, and also any inherent scientific limitations.

Weather and Climate Services for the Farming Community (1)



• Seasonal forecasts should enable management of risk, allowing the farmers: – to adopt improved technologies, intensify production, and

ensure replenishment of soil nutrients;

– to take advantage of favourable conditions; and

– to more effectively protect families and farms against the long-term consequences of extreme events.

• In order to maximize the potential value of seasonal forecasts, it is important to ensure that seasonal forecasts are understood and are useable by farmers.




• To meet farmer requirements, seasonal forecasts:

– should be downscaleable to available stations or projected onto high-resolution, gridded, merged satellite-station data;

– should include relevant and predictable information about “weather-within-climate” such as the number of rain days;

– should express uncertainty in transparent probabilistic terms, including the full forecast and climatological distributions; and

– can/will be packaged with historic observations and hindcasts of the forecast variables.

• Farmers would like early prediction of onset and cessation of rainfall, early information on duration of dry or wet spells, and growing season length.




• Agrometeorological models, based on meteorological variables including weather and climate forecast information, have proven to be useful to farmers for management of crop protection against pests and disease.

• Agricultural zoning (AZ) or agroclimatic suitability, is used to determine whether a certain region is adequate, restricted or inadequate for plant/crop growth. AZ includes evaluation of climatic risks associated with frosts, water deficits, droughts or high temperatures and thus is useful for crop planning.




• The farming sector is a critical component of many developing economies.

• There is increasing competition for land and water resources and climate change will intensify the struggle for natural resources.

• Agricultural practitioners benefit considerably from knowledge of climate, of risks and opportunities related to climate, and from access to information tailored to their needs.




• Climate services for the farming sector must include:– acquisition and wider dissemination of data and products;

– assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks;

– advancing knowledge base for adaptation;

– assisting in the intensification of food production systems;

– enabling institutions and policy support; and

– partnerships and capacity enhancement.

• Improved climate services for farming communities need to be part of the national agricultural policies.




• Agrometeorological services for response farming includes information for irrigation scheduling, early warnings, microclimate manipulation, and application of weather and climate forecasts in a changing and increasingly variable climate.

• Agrometeorological services include all agrometeorological & agroclimatological knowledge and information that can be directly applied to improve and/or protect the livelihood of farmers, for protection and/or improvement of yield quantity & quality and income, while safeguarding the agricultural resource base from degradation.

• The livelihood strategies of poor people, including resource-poor farmers, are often complex and diverse. Different types of farmer treat technological and related information differently, and may receive their information through different channnels.

• Development of useful operational agromet/clim services requires broad collaboration/partnerships, with extension workers, anthropologists, agricultural and social scientists as well as development economists.

Provision of Weather and Climate Services to the Farming Community (1)



Key messages related to building adaptive capacity of small farmers to climate variability and change:

• Specialized information delivery systems are required to reach rural farmers, and should include: – modern technical weather and climate information; – advice on their effects on agricultural systems; – advice on appropriate actions (e.g. for application of fertilizer,

planting,);• The information should be made available in local

languages, and allow for intetgration of indigenous knowledge (local coping strategies).

• Existing operational systems have proven value through:– Increased environmental protection– Reduction of use of pesticides and insecticides– Reduced conflict in households and villages




Key messages (continued):• More effective approaches to delivery of climate

and weather information to farmer may need the incorporation of more participatory and cross disciplinary approaches;

• Roving seminars have proven benefits to farmers and for improvement of products and services, and communications. Farmers:– learn from each other through the networks developed;– become more resilient, self-reliant, with respect to

climate variability and change; – take ownership of collecting observations; and – contribute to development of guides, training sessions.




Key messages (continued):• Feedback from roving seminars and farmers is crucial for

NMHSs in providing better services to agricultural community;

• The seminars optimally benefit from full co-operation between NMHSs, and local agricultural extension services with the active involvement of the agricultural research personnel from research stations or agricultural universities in a region;

• The seminars promote interactive discussions, in local languages;

• WMO and partners are expanding the capability for holding roving seminars through design and implementation of events to ‘train the trainers’.




Key messages related to implementation and use of modern technologies for dissemination of products and services to Agriculture communities:

• Farmers require accurate, understandable and easy to access site-specific information, delivered in a systematic and timely manner.

• Dissemination tools include: AWSs; Internet/Web; TCP/IP; WiFi/WiMax; Mobile/Smart phone; DBMS; NWPs; AgModels; GIS/RS; Media - Radio, TV; Bulletins.

• Information management framework requires monitoring, transmission, database management, processing, archiving, dissemination to and feedback from users, and could include data, forecasts, advice/guidance, bulletins, advisories, maps, etc..




Key messages (contd):• Information related to hazards must be quickly and reliably

provided.• Information from multiple sources (e.g. WMO, NMHSs,

partnering organizations, universities, etc.) must be accommodated and coordinated.

• Information management processes should be developed to be part of WMO WIS.

• The ideal system would consist of: servers for simulation models, databases, and system analysis; a high-speed network frame; web service interfaces for simulation models with near-real-time DB access; multi-tiered interface architecture in a distributed computing environment; wireless communications including mobile phones and the media.




Key issues raised:

• Climate change is to some extent inevitable, and will pose impacts on the livelihoods of farmers. Adaptation will be required, to help the agriculture sector manage change.

• Strategies will include changes in crops and cultivars, varying use of pesticides and fertilizers, changing planting dates, breeding livestock for greater environmental tolerance, improving pasture and grazing management, developing insurance schemes, and raising awareness/educating society and sectors on coping strategies.

• To cope with expected drier conditions in many regions, irrigation and improved soil and water management techniques will be needed. Water management must take into account the individual basins and their diversity.

Climate Change Adaptation: A special symposium (1)



Key issues raised:

• Climate change is a vulnerability and risk multiplier for people who suffer from lack of food currently and in future. Projected increased in extreme climate events will exacerbate resource scarcity, increasing suffering, conflicts and human displacements.

• The World Food Programme works to enhance food availability while increasing resilience to hazards and developing adaptation strategies.

• Social protection is critical to ensuring sustainable livelihoods. Social protection schemes rely on reliable, accurate, focused weather and climate information, linked to vulnerability information, early warning systems, and planning/prevention practices. The Global Framework for Climate Services will pave the way for stepping up these capacities.

Climate Change Adaptation: A special symposium (2)



Key issues:

• Weather risk insurance is a financial protection that compensates farmers against unfavourable weather that impacts yields, leading to loss of household income and food insecurity.

• Availability of high quality meteorological data is critical to getting insurance.

• Benefits of agricultural insurance are many:

– At household level, availability of insurance allows a better standard of living, access to loans to purchase better seed and fertilizers. It stabilizes income and protects livelihoods. Farmers feel it is also an investment in their farms.

– For the government, the program provides government contingent financing; allows the cost of drought risk to be smoothed over time; provides some predictability to drought financing and buys time for other emergency responses to take affect; helps get the needed resources into the hands of the government and beneficiaries sooner; provides government a level of autonomy.

Risk Management and Weather Risk Insurance Strategies (1):



Key issues (contd.):• Farmers are sophisticated risk managers, but tend

to be very conservative, and therefore experience sub-optimal farm production and income.

• Farmers are vulnerable to severe events (droughts, floods). In crises, community coping mechanisms break down, creating increase in hardship and poverty.

• Insurance, in the approach of the WFP, is used for both disaster relief, and for development.




Key issues (contd.):• Challenges to implementation of insurance schemes

include: – Demand: Need viable and sustainable demand in the community;– Cost: not only of the contract, but also the cost of implementation

of the required observing networks. Need 3-5 years of persistent accompaniment, to get this off the ground and this is costly;

– Contract design: what variables, from what sources?– Basis risk: In a typical insurance scheme, there is an agreed

framework for calculating your individual loss. But using an Index….the location of the weather station is critical…if there is a disagreement between the observation and what happens on your farm, you may lose faith in the scheme;

– Reinsurance: to offset having lots of payouts at once.




Key issues:• Farmers from around the world have different levels of awareness of

climate benefits and risks, and different capacities to effectively apply meteorological information in managing their risks. Farmers are in many cases, very fragile – vulnerable to climate variability and change, and to socio-economic changes.

• Farmers have a role as guardians of the land and environment – they need appropriate tools, governance, services and information to do this, and to make a decent living.

• Requirements of farmers for information include:– A reliable weather forecast for each of the next 7 days.– A reliable weather forecast for the following week.– A good and improving forecast for the next 3 months. – A12-month forecast. Probabilities are OK.– Simple and versatile decision support software.– Knowledge of what is going to happen, where and when world wide, and

down to farm scale, in a timely manner.

Farmers Forum (1)



Key issues:Concerns, from a farmer’s perspective:

– Increasing Climate Volatility; More Droughts.– Declining Terms of Trade; Land Values; Scarce Capital; Increasing Debt.– Misinformation about climate change.– Concept of feeding 9 billion people by 2050 – you can’t push a farm too

far! The resource could collapse.– Current technology (e.g. chemicals, GM e.g.) have both benefits and

risks.

• There is recognition that making assessment of risk based on past behaviour and climate statistics, is affected by climate change – the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future.

Farmers Forum (2)



User liaison/training/communications:

– Develop or enhance two-way dialogue between providers of products and services and the farmers to ensure that user requirements are understood and met (e.g. via RCOFs); face-to-face interaction is critical;

– Improve information delivery systems, especially for remote areas, through traditional systems (e.g. drums) as well as use of modern tools (eg., SMS, Internet, e-boards);

– Further develop World Agrometeorological Information Service (WAMIS);

– Improve capacity building, knowledge and awareness amongst agricultural communities;

Recommendations (1)



User liaison/training/communications:– Enhance outreach;

– Promote networking between farmers and relevant user sectors (eg., water resources);

– Develop targeted capacity building initiatives as an essential component of the communication process;

– Extend to other countries the success of Mali in increasing the budget and recognition for the NMHSs through improved relationship with and services to the agricultural communities.

– Build strong relationships between service providers and researchers, so the achievements of research can be quickly be applied, to benefit farmers and food production. (already have one like this)

Recommendations (2)



NMHSs, extension services and partners:– Increase synoptic and agrometeorological station

density, especially in developing countries;– Collect/provide data from all relevant sources: e.g.

meteorological, agrometeorological, soils, phenology, crop conditions, remote sensing, and agricultural statistics;

– Develop localized climate services, products, forecasts and assessments with high spatial and temporal resolution (e.g. historical risk/hazard patterns; analysis of meteorological, climatic and crop data; assessments of the temporal and spatial dimensions of climate impacts; crop yield forecasts; crop growing period forecasts; forecasts of plant diseases and insect/pests)

Recommendations (3)



NMHSs, extension services and partners:– Improve products (e.g. user-friendly formats,

explanations of probabilistic outputs, more skilful and timely predictions);

– Promote the use of weather index insurance;– Promote best practices in the use of climate information

in agricultural decisions– Strengthen agrometeorological extension services for

increased interpretation of weather and climate information for agricultural users, adapted to local conditions and tailored to farmers’ needs

Recommendations (4)



NMHSs, extension services and partners:– Explore the use of Agroclimatic Zoning for use in crop

insurance systems and in setting crop security policies.– Collect and disseminate examples of best practices in

Agromet/agroclim services, to promote their implementation broadly, where applicable.

– In addition to provision of rain gauges to farmers, also provide thermometers for monitoring both rain and temperature, in support of better agricultural modeling and zoning exercises;

– Explore the concept of National Climate Services, including all relevant partners, with a coordinated approach to user communities, and the policy changes that will foster this integrated approach.

Recommendations (5)



NMHSs, extension services and partners:– NMHSs need to mine their long-term records

for creation of historical trends and assessments of hazards as a basis for getting insurance coverage;

– Capacity building activities should focus on integrating data from Automatic Weather Stations into Geographical Information Systems;

– NMHSs should monitor and evaluate insurance products, and to continually improve these, to increasingly address the needs of the farmers.

Recommendations (6)



NMHSs, extension services and partners: Improve forecasts, improve GCMs. Develop a range of climate information and

products and delivery mechanisms to suit the capacities of the broad range of farmers – many do not have Internet, some are illiterate, e.g. – ensure the information is user-friendly. (already have one like this)

Recommendations (6)



Applied research:• Develop livelihood zone maps with a livelihood baseline and

information on vulnerability to weather and climate phenomena;

• Study the sensitivity of farm incomes to climate variability and change and the accumulated effects on livelihoods of repeated climate-related impacts over time;

• Enhance agroclimatic characterization using GIS;• Transfer scientific advances into operational, practical

applications;• Develop and apply improved tools for practical applications

of risk management strategies including disaster risk reduction and preparedness.

Recommendations (7)



To enhance the benefits of seasonal forecasts for farming community :

• Mainstream climate information, including seasonal forecasting, into agricultural research and development strategy.

• Develop the capacity to use and effectively demand climate information.

• Ensure that farmers and the agricultural sector have ownership and an effective voice in development of climate information products and services.

• Climate services should target and foster coordination among an expanded set of applications of seasonal forecast information, (e.g. coordinating input and credit supply, food crisis management, trade, and agricultural insurance).

Recommendations (8)



To enhance the benefits of seasonal forecasts for farming community (contd.) :

• National meteorological services, in many cases, need to be realigned, resourced and trained as providers of services for development and as participants in the development process.

• Meteorological data should be treated by national policy as a free public good and a resource for sustainable development across sectors.

• Ensure Regional Climate Outlook Foras (RCOFs) are more relevant to agricultural users by having users assist in the design of COF process, COF timing and products.

Recommendations (9)



To improve Roving Seminars:• Systematize the dialogue between the technical services

and the rural community on weather, climate and their impacts on the rural activities;

• Set up a more adapted methodology for the realization of these seminars;

• Ensure the involvement of media/coommunications experts;

• Expand the program (beyond the roving seminars) to include a systematic weather, climate and crop monitoring component in the vulnerable region;

• Carry out surveys on local traditional knowledge and how it can complement the information system.

Recommendations (10)



Policy:• The concept of weather and climate services should be

developed as a public good, with adequate funding and mandates to NMHSs to carry this out.

• Meteorological data should be treated by national policy makers as a free public good and a resource for sustainable development across sectors.

• Foster a philosophy of protection of the environment, land and water; reduced consumption of energy and natural resources; and development of resilience, for sustainable development.




Policy: Governments to appropriately invest in establishment and

maintenance of high quality and high density meteorological stations to underpin the pursuit of agricultural and crop insurance;

Develop the resolve, urgency and leadership, to handle the world’s increasing requirement for food, in a changing world.

• Agrometeorological products and services need to developed, improved, or modified in order to follow the paradigm shift in agriculture from productivity to sustainability.

• There needs to be improved climate risk evaluation and climate information delivery to the agricultural sector.




Policy:• New and innovative models of cooperation and

partnerships are needed to be developed among UN agencies, international, regional, and national institutions.

• Capacity building is essential to the development of climate services.

• Improved adaptation strategies are needed to be developed in a timely manner to ensure resilient agricultural systems.

• Strategies for climate change mitigation for agricultural systems must be developed.

• Priority should be placed on mechanisms of compensation to farmers that are impacted by climate change.




Thank you very much for your attention

World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Workshop Summary and Recommendations.

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