World Energy Outlook and the Prospects for Sustainable Sources International Symposium on Solar Energy from Space September 8-10, 2009 Ontario Science.

World Energy Outlook and theProspects for Sustainable Sources

International Symposium on Solar Energy from Space

September 8-10, 2009 Ontario Science Centre, Toronto, Canada

Dr. R. Bryan Erb

Messages

Energy demand will continue to grow stronglyAlternatives to “Business as Usual” (BAU) can

limit emissions to acceptable levelsRenewable sources will dominate Investments need to be largeStrong environmental policies will be requiredSpace Solar Power will be competitive

2R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009

OutlineConcernsDrivers for energy needsCurrent world energy situationEnergy trendsApproaches to stabilizing GHG emissions

Decarbonizing fossil fuels Expanding the use of renewables

Renewables that will be significant InvestmentsSpace Solar Power will be competitive


ConcernsThe World Energy Outlook – Troubling! Why?

Continuing BAU will aggravate climate impacts Alternatives to present sources will be challenging

to implement at the needed scale Consumption will grow as population increases

and must grow to help those in energy poverty Food and fiber production must be increased

without damaging lands and biota Global energy infrastructure is so vast and

complex that change can come only slowly


Drivers For Energy NeedsPopulation

Currently 6.5 Billion Expect 10 B by 2050 and 11.6 B by 2100

Economic activity Gross world product currently $38 Trillion Expect $75 B by 2050 and $200+ B by 2100

Efficiency of energy utilizationDesire to reduce inequities in global energy

availability


The Current World Energy Situation

Will be described by: Total quantity of energy produced and its

distribution among major economic regions Level of economic activity supported by this

quantity of energy Sources of energy Resource availability Environmental implications


Quantity of Energy and Economic Activity

World Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) in 2006: 15,600 GWth

Gross World Product: $38 Trillion USPopulation: 6.5 BillionTPES per person: 2.4 KWth

Carbon emissions: 7,600 MtC


TPES per Person by Region

KWth


Primary Energy Sources - 2004


Distribution of the 0.5% of “Others”


Resource Availability & Environmental Implications

Near Term Resources:“There are sufficient reserves of most types of energy resources to last at least several decades at current rates of use” … IPCC

Environment: A major and growing issue


Energy TrendsProjections are based on the scenarios of the

World Energy Council/IIASA and extend to 2100Drivers are:

Population – 10.06 Billion in 2050, 11.65 by 2100 Economic Activity - $75 to 100 B depending on

scenario Technology choices - especially acceptability of coal

and nuclearThree broad scenarios – A, high growth; B,

“business as usual”; C, ecologically driven12R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009

Energy History and Projections

GWth


Representative Scenarios

Three of the WEC/IIASA scenarios chosen to illustrate a range of possible energy futures:

B - BAUA2 - highest emissions scenarioC1 - least use of nuclear


Environmental OutlookOnly the “Ecologically-Driven” scenarios

reduce emissions significantlyNet emissions of energy-related Carbon are

reduced to tolerable levels by 2100Atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2100

stabilizes in the range of 450 to 550 ppmThis concentration should limit warming to

two to three degrees C Each of these has its own particular makeup

of energy sources15R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009

Energy Share by Source - B


Energy Share by Source - A2

Year17R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009

Energy Share by Source – C1


Outlook for

Resource

Availability

WEC projects adequate resource availability over the next 100 years, but foresees that a shift in sources will be driven by: Environmental impacts Economic recoverability of the resources


Net Carbon Emissions from Energy


Approaches To StabilizingGHG Emissions

There are two fundamental approaches on the energy front: Reducing the impact of fossil fuels, i.e.,

“Decarbonizing” them Expanding the use of renewables or nuclear

Note: there are other ways of influencing climate, including various forms of

Geo/Climate engineering


Decarbonizing Fossil FuelsApproaches include:

Shifting to lower carbon fuels, e.g., gas vs. coal Improving the efficiency of use of such fuels Capturing and sequestering the carbon (CCS):

“upstream” in the supply process, or “downstream” in the utilization process

These measures are necessary but not sufficient – major expansion in the supply from renewable sources is vital


RenewablesRenewable sources include: hydro,

biomass, solar, wind, geothermal and various forms of ocean/tidal/wave energy

Each has its own peculiar advantages and drawbacks

Only some can be exploited at a scale and in a time frame that will make a significant contribution


Sources Viewed as LimitedHydro – only modest scope for expansionBiomass – important for fuels, but limited by

competition for landGeothermal - locally important, but not a

large-scale source unless the “Engineered Geothermal Systems” approach can be developed successfully

Ocean/tidal/wave - resources are immense yet diffuse and expensive to exploit


Nuclear OutlookNuclear suffers from concerns over public

acceptance, final waste management and proliferation risk

Little capacity is being added in the OECD countries and some is being removed

However, China, Russia and India have ambitious programs

More widespread use may be needed to meet emissions targets


Significant Renewables: Solar and Wind

Total energy available from these sources is immense, but the energy density is low

Product is largely electricity, the most useful form of energy

The C1 scenario projects that these sources, along with biomass for fuels, will be the dominant sources of the future


Electricity from Solar and Wind

Year

TWhr


The Matter of Intermittency

It is critical to recognize that solar and wind are intermittent sources and can be used immediately by the power grid only to the extent of 20 - 25% of production

Solar and wind can be more fully exploited to meet base load needs if storage can be provided or if the electricity is used to generate hydrogen


Electricity from Solar and Wind:Extent of Immediate Use

TotalElectricity

Electricity from Solar + Wind


Cost Impact of IntermittencySolar and wind installations with storage (to serve

base load needs) will be more expensive than those providing peak power

Capital costs, by mid-century, of such plants is estimated at ≈ $7000 per KWe

Incremental investment to accommodate this intermittency is estimated at ≈ $1T per year beginning around 2040 (just over 1% of GWP)


Energy Investments

Recent capital expenditures ≈ 1% of GWP

Implementing energy scenarios that reduce emissions significantly will be more costly

Stern Report documents cost estimates at 1% of GWP by 2050 to stabilize atmospheric concentration of CO2 at 500-550ppm

WEC notes costs unlikely to exceed 2% of GWP


Outlook for Space Solar Power

Capital costs for Space Solar Power installations are estimated to be on the order of $4000 per KWe

If terrestrial installations for solar and wind providing base load power run $7,000 per KWe and a Trillion dollars a year is needed to build the needed capacity, then Space Solar Power should be very competitive


An Assessment Implementing an energy future such as C1 will

be extremely challenging, requiring: Enormous investments Strong environmental policies Continuing international cooperation for decades

Consequences of failing to follow such a path: Serious climate impacts or Expansion of nuclear supply and/or Resort to more use of fossil fuels


What Could Change This Picture?

Cheaper ways to store electricityPower grids of international scaleEconomic means of exploiting geothermal or

ocean energySuccess in exploiting nuclear fusion


Recommendations

Promote a better general understanding of the world energy situation

Support all plausible sources of sustainable and clean energy, especially Space Solar Power

Support policy actions that reduce emissions, importantly, putting a price on carbon

Support policy actions that improve efficiencyStart now


Take Away

Energy demand will continue to grow stronglyAlternatives to “Business as Usual” can limit

emissions to acceptable levelsRenewable sources will dominate Investments need to be largeStrong environmental policies will be requiredSpace Solar Power will be competitive


World Energy Outlook and the Prospects for Sustainable Sources International Symposium on Solar Energy from Space September 8-10, 2009 Ontario Science.

Documents

solar energy

bryan erbspace canada

world energy counciliiasa

primary energy sources

energy needs population

global energy availability

total quantity of energy

energy trends projections