© OECD/IEA 2013 World Energy Outlook 2013 Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet
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© OECD/IEA 2013
World Energy Outlook 2013
Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet
© OECD/IEA 2013
Energy demand & GDP
Despite the partial decoupling of energy demand & economic growth, which has been particularly evident in the OECD, the two still remain closely tied
10
20
30
40
50
1971 1980 1990 2000 2012
Trillion dollars (2012)
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000 Mtoe
OECD
Non-OECD
GDP:
OECD
Non-OECD
TPED (right axis):
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World energy demand & related CO2 emissions by scenario
In the New Policies Scenario, global primary energy demand between 2011 & 2035 increases by one-third & CO2 emissions by one-fifth
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Mtoe
20
40
60
80 Gt
CO2 emissions (right axis):
Primary energy demand:
New Policies Scenario
Current Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
New Policies Scenario Current Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
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The engine of energy demand growth moves to South Asia
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
4%
65%
10%
8%
8% 5%
OECD
Non-OECD Asia
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
Eurasia
Share of global growth 2012-2035
480
Brazil 1 540
India
1 000 Southeast
Asia
4 060
China
1 030
Africa
2 240 United States 440
Japan
1 710
Europe 1 370
Eurasia
1 050 Middle East
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Non-OECD
OECD
Emissions off track in the run-up to the 2015 climate summit in France
Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions
Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions, although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD
200
400
600
800 Gt
1900 -1929
1930 -1959
1960 -1989
1990 -2012
2013 -2035
OECD
Non-OECD
Total emissions 1900-2035
51%
49%
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Fossil energy resources by type
The world's remaining energy resources will not constrain the projected energy demand growth to 2035 & beyond, but large-scale of investment is required
Total remaining recoverable resources
Proven reserves
Cumulative production to date
Coal Natural gas Oil
3 050 years
233 years 178 years
142 years
61 years 54 years
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A mix that is slow to change
Growth in total primary energy demand
Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000
Nuclear
Oil
Renewables
Coal
Gas
Mtoe
1987-2011
2011-2035
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China becomes the largest consumer of oil by 2030, as OECD oil use drops; demand is concentrated in transport, where diesel use surges by 5.5 mb/d, & petrochemicals
China becomes the largest consumer of oil by 2030, as OECD oil use drops;
Oil demand by region sector
Oil use grows, but in a narrowing set of markets
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2012 2035
mb/d
China
India
Middle East
Other
Transport Petrochemicals Other sectors
OECD
Diesel
Gasoline
Other
80
85
90
95
100
105
2012 2035
mb/d
Transport Petrochemicals Other sectors
Diesel
Gasoline
Other
, & petrochemicals
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-2 0 2 4 6 8
Rest of the world
United States
Brazil
Middle East
mb/d
Two chapters to the oil production story
Contributions to global oil production growth
The United States (light tight oil) & Brazil (deepwater) step up until the mid-2020s,
2013-2025
2025-2035
but the Middle East is critical to the longer-term oil outlook
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Coal use grows further albeit at a slower pace than in the past
Incremental world coal demand, historical & by scenario
Differing stringency of climate action shapes the outlook for coal demand in the three scenarios
-2 000 -1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000
450 Scenario
Current Policies Scenario
New Policies Scenario
1987-2011
Mtce
2011-2020
2020-2035
2001-2011
1987-2001
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© OECD/IEA 2013
Unconventionals account for half of gas output growth
Growth in unconventional gas production by type
Unconventional gas development spreads well beyond North America, notably after 2020, with China & Australia major contributors to production growth
2011-2020
2020-2035
Shale gas
Coalbed methane
United States
Canada India
China
Australia
Indonesia Mexico
Algeria European Union
India Argentina
Canada China
United States
0 bcm
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
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Natural gas: towards a globalised market
Major global gas trade flows, 2010
Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows, putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms
Major global gas trade flows, 2035
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LNG from the United States can shake up gas markets
Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast (at current prices)
New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
Average import price
Liquefaction, shipping & regasification
United States price 3
6
9
12
15
18
To Asia
$/MBtu
3
6
9
12
To Europe
$/MBtu
but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
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Renewables continue to gain share
Renewables grow strongly in all sectors and regions, with the strongest growth coming from the power sector
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
World US EU China
Additional market share in 2035
2011
Electricity generation Heat production Road transport World US EU China World US EU China
Renewable energy share in total primary energy demand by category & region
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GW
Capacity to change?
Power generation capacity additions and retirements, 2013-2035
China & India together build almost 40% of the world’s new capacity; 60% of capacity additions in the OECD replace retired plants
400 600 800 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 000 200
United States
European Union
Japan
China
India
Middle East
Retirements
Additions Net additions
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A new era in power capacity
Installed capacity by source
Despite additions of coal- & gas-fired power plants, more than half of new capacity is renewables-based, reaching 40% of global installed capacity in 2035
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Projections Historical Other renewables
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear Oil
Gas
Coal
GW
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300
600
900
1 200
1 500
1 800
2 100 TWh
India
Latin America
Africa
ASEAN
Hydro
Other renewables
Wind
Solar PV
China
Hydro
Other renewables
Wind
Solar PV
Renewables power up around the world
Growth in electricity generation from renewable sources, 2011-2035
European Union
United States
Japan
Europe, Japan & United States
China India, Latin America, ASEAN & Africa
Hydro
Other renewables
Wind
Solar PV
The expansion of non-hydro renewables depends on subsidies that more than double to 2035; additions of wind & solar have implications for power market design & costs additions of wind & solar have implications for power market design & costs
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Energy efficiency involves all sectors of the economy
Primary energy savings from energy efficiency by fuel & sector in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario in 2035
Energy savings are dominated by efficient motors in industry, efficient appliances & lighting in buildings & fuel-efficient road vehicles in transport
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Power
Industry
Buildings
Transport
Electricity & heat
Gas
Coal
Oil
Bioenergy
Other renewables
Mtoe
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Energy-intensive industries need to count their costs
Share of energy in total production costs for selected industries
Energy-intensive sectors worldwide account for around one-fifth of industrial value added, one-quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use.
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Glass
Pulp & paper
Iron & steel
Cement
Aluminium
Fertilisers
Petrochemicals
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3×
4×
5×
2003
Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today’s very high levels but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist electricity price differentials also persist
2013 2035
Reduction from 2013
Who has the energy to compete?
Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States
United States
2×
Japan European Union
China
Electricity Natural gas
2003
Japan European Union
China
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An energy boost to the economy?
Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods
The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share for energy-intensive goods, while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline
Today 36% 10% 7% 7% 3% 2%
European Union
United States China India Middle East
Japan
-3%
-10%
+3%
+2% +2% +1%
while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline
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The world energy scene today
Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten
Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters…
… and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand
New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources
But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce
Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO2 emissions continue to rise
Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012
1.3 billion people lack electricity, 2.6 billion lack clean cooking facilities
Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers
Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history
Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity
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