World Cup 2014 Countries: Spotlighting Demographics...countries, rich to poor, young to old, developed to developing in regions from the following: 1. Africa 2. Europe 3. Asia 4. Middle-East

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World Cup 2014 Countries: Spotlighting Demographics Global Demographics & Pensions Research

This chart-book based report highlights the changing

demographics (over 1980-2015) of the 32 countries that have

qualified for the 2014 FIFA Football World Cup to be held over 12

June – 13 July in Brazil. We spotlight their core demographics

variables as well as a few economic variables. This provides

insights into the underlying demographics of the countries and

these in turn affect growth, debt sustainability, asset prices and

pensions as shown in our previous research.

In previous published research we have criticized myopic and misleading

characterizations of demographics as being age-related only. In our view it is

about “people characteristics” and from an economic or market standpoint,

the characteristics that matter are those as consumers (from birth until death)

and workers (over our working life). People and countries are changing

demographically leading to historically unprecedented challenges to policies,

theories and collectively societies.

We present a time-series comparison of how demographic and economic

variables have evolved over the last three and a half decades for each country,

as well as a cross-country comparison based on current values.

The countries that have qualified for the 2014 World Cup Finals: Algeria,

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Brazil, Cameroon, Chile,

Colombia, Costa Rica, Cote D’Ivoire, Croatia, Ecuador, England, France,

Germany, Ghana, Greece. Honduras, Iran, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,

Nigeria, Portugal, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Spain, Switzerland,

Uruguay and the USA.

The demographic data are based on standard UN classifications and data. For

countries that did not exist in 1980 or whose status has changed, we keep

things simple by deferring to the UN/ILO classifications. We present below the

highs and lows of demographic and economic indicators across the countries:

GDP per capita at PPP: USA (53,101 current international dollars), Cote

d’Ivoire (1,818 current international dollars)

Population growth: Nigeria (2.8% p.a.), Croatia (-0.4% p.a.)

Life Expectancy at Birth: Japan (83.5 years), Cote d’Ivoire (50.5 years)

Fertility rates: Nigeria (6 children per woman), Bosnia & Herzegovina,

Portugal, Republic of Korea (1.3 children per woman)

Net migration rates: Switzerland (7.97 per 1000 people), Mexico (-1.98 per

1000 people).

Research Analysts

Amlan Roy

44 20 7888 1501

[email protected]

Sonali Punhani

44 20 7883 4297

[email protected]

Angela Hsieh

44 20 7883 9639

[email protected]

09 June 2014

Global Demographics and Pensions Research

http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics

World Cup 2014

09 June 2014

World Cup 2014 Countries: Spotlighting Demographics 2

Table of Contents

The Changing Demographics of the World Cup 2014 Countries 3

A guide to the five country-specific charts 4

Algeria 7

Argentina 8

Australia 9

Belgium 10

Bosnia & Herzegovina 11

Brazil 12

Cameroon 13

Chile 14

Colombia 15

Costa Rica 16

Cote d’Ivoire 17

Croatia 18

Ecuador 19

France 20

Germany 21

Ghana 22

Greece 23

Honduras 24

Iran 25

Italy 26

Japan 27

Mexico 28

Netherlands 29

Nigeria 30

Portugal 31

Republic of Korea 32

Russia 33

Spain 34

Switzerland 35

United Kingdom (as a proxy for England) 36

Uruguay 37

USA 38

Conclusions 39

Appendix: Countries Globally, Median Age & Average Squad age (2014 World Cup) 40

09 June 2014


The Changing Demographics of the World Cup 2014 Countries

The 2014 Football (read “soccer” if in the US) World Cup to be contested shortly among

32 countries across seven regions is one of the most followed sports events every four

years. The World Cup Finals are now contested among 32 countries instead of the 24

which competed for the honours in 1982. The competitors range from a whole range of

countries, rich to poor, young to old, developed to developing in regions from the following:

1. Africa 2. Europe 3. Asia 4. Middle-East 5. North America, Central America & Caribbean

6. Oceania and 7. South America.

The list of countries in the 2014 World Cup Finals: Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Belgium,

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Brazil, Cameroon, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cote D’Ivoire,

Croatia, Ecuador, England, France, Germany, Ghana, Greece. Honduras, Iran, Italy,

Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Portugal, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation,

Spain, Switzerland, Uruguay and the USA.

To keep things simple we present a snapshot of each country’s demographic profile

focusing on the evolution of the core demographic and economic variables over 1980-

2015. The representation by regions has created a greater parity of representation across

regions. In 1982, Europe accounted for 12 of 24 countries represented in the World Cup

competition whereas the 11 countries of 32 represented in this year’s World Cup is a

smaller share.

Of the countries listed above we wish to note that Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia,

Germany and the Russian Federation are different in their political/geographical form and

their name than they were in the 1980s. Also, as we rely on the UN for the core data,

instead of the data for England, we use the overall aggregate for UK. We appreciate that

this may be less than ideal but it facilitates better cross-country comparisons.

The core demographic variables that we choose to present on a country-specific basis are:

Population (000s of numbers)

Population growth per annum

Fertility rate (children per woman of child-bearing age)

Life Expectancy at Birth

Old-Age dependency ratio (no. of old people aged 65+ years for 100 people of child-

bearing age)

Age distribution of the population represented by population pyramids: 1980 & 2015

GDP and GDP per capita (real USD and at PPP)

We also present comparisons of current levels of net migration rates across the countries.

The increasingly globalized world and movement of people across boundaries has led to a

changed mix of players representing countries in sports over the last few decades. The

ethnic mix and the natives vs. immigrants that comprise national teams, not just in football

but in all sports has changed. Talented sports persons have become more global in terms

of both their profile and their market values.

In this report, we present the core demographic and economic indicators in terms of 5

charts for each country on a page with a cross-country comparison of some key variables

before the country-specific charts for the 32 countries preceding it. We present below a

short description of how to read and interpret the charts for each country.

09 June 2014


A guide to the five country-specific charts

Apart from the flag on the right, we present the number of World Cup appearances along

with the latest FIFA ranking. In addition we show how many members of the current squad

play in foreign football leagues—a measure of commercialization of the game as well as

globalization. The first chart on Core Demographic Variables: In keeping with the spirit of

our report, this chart shows the changing demographics of a country for six indicators over

1980-2015.

a. Population (in millions) how that has changed. In the case of Algeria (first country in

alphabetical order), the population has increased from 19.6 m people to 40.6 m

people over 1980 to 2015.

b. Population growth: The population growth rate of Algeria has slowed from 3.2% p.a.

in 1980-85 to 1.8% p.a. in 2010-2015.

c. Total Fertility rate (children per woman of child-bearing age): the fertility rate has

decreased from 6.5 children per woman (1980-85) to 2.8 children per woman (2010-

2015) in Algeria

d. Old-age dependency ratio: reflects the number of 65+ people per 100 working age

population. The old-age dependency ratio has increased slightly from 6.7 old people per

100 people of working age (1980) to 7 old people per 100 of working age (2015) in Algeria.

e. Life expectancy in years: This indicator reflects the increased longevity of the average

person in Algeria, from 61.6 years in 1980-85 to 70.9 years in 2010-15.

f. Median age (years): This has increased from 16.7 years in 1980 to 27.5 years in

Algeria in 2015.

The second and third chart represents the age distribution of the population with both the

male and female age distribution depicted in the charts. For Algeria, the increased life

expectancy is also reflected in the changing shape of the population pyramids which indicates

how many males and females belong to each 5-year aged group of the age distribution.

The fourth chart presents the core economic variables at an aggregate basis (GDP), an

average basis (GDP per capita), GDP adjusted for price differences across countries

(GDP per capita on PPP basis). Also shown in the chart are the growth rates of real GDP

and Real GDP per capita. In addition, as demographics pertains to the work characteristic

of individuals, we include the labour force growth rate too. In the case of Algeria, we note

that both GDP and GDP per capita have grown and so has GDP per capita at PPP.

However, the labour force growth rate has slowed down.

The fifth chart, shows the labour force participation rates across both men and women.

We emphasize the labour force participation rate gaps (males less females) as an

indicator of gender disparity in the work place. In Algeria, the gap is lower than in 1980,

but still quite high and correlates with its fertility rate being nearly 3 children per woman.

The next part of the report below presents selected variables on a cross-country comparison

basis. Exhibit 1 presents the differences across the countries in terms of GDP per capita

adjusted on a PPP basis. Note the contrast between Cote d’Ivoire and the USA or

Cameroon and Switzerland. Exhibit 2 presents population growth rates and noteworthy is the

fact that Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Germany, Japan and Russia have negative

population growth rates, i.e., decreasing populations in contrast with the high population

growth countries namely Nigeria, Cameroon and Cote d’Ivoire. Exhibit 3 presents net

migration rate differences across the 32 countries. Net migration is defined as number of

immigrants less the number of emigrants per 1000 native residents. By way of contrast note

Honduras, Mexico and Uruguay with negative net migration rates in contrast with Australia,

Switzerland and the US which have high positive net migration rates.

09 June 2014


Exhibit 1: GDP Per capita at PPP: 2013

Current international dollar

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Source: UN, Credit Suisse

Exhibit 2: Population growth rates: 2010- 2015

% p.a.

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%


09 June 2014


Exhibit 3: Net Migration Rates, 2010-2015

number of net migrants per 1000 residents

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


Exhibit 4: Life Expectancy at Birth, 2010-2015

Years

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90


Exhibit 4 presents the divergences in life expectancies across countries with Italy, Japan

and Switzerland displaying highest longevity in contrast with Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria with

much lower life expectancies at birth.

09 June 2014


Algeria

No of WC appearances/ FIFA Ranking:: 3 / 22

No of squad players in foreign leagues: 21:

Source: Wikimedia Commons, www.fifa.com

Exhibit 5: Core demographic variables, 1980 & 2015

Population Population growth* Total fertility rate* Old-age dependency ratio Life expectancy* Median age

Millions Rate per annum (%) Children per woman Ratio of population aged 65+

per 100 population 15-64 Years Years

1980 19.5 3.2% 6.5 6.7 61.6 16.7

2015 40.6 1.8% 2.8 7.0 70.9 27.5

Source: UN, Credit Suisse (* Measured over 1980- 1985 and 2010- 2015)

Exhibit 6: Population Pyramid (Age Structure) 1980 Exhibit 7: Population Pyramid (Age Structure) 2015

In thousands In thousands

2,500 1,500 500 500 1,500 2,500

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Algeria: 1980

Male Female

2,500 1,500 500 500 1,500 2,500

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Algeria: 2015

Male Female

Source: UN, Credit Suisse Source: UN, Credit Suisse

Exhibit 8: Core economic variables, 1980 & 2015 Exhibit 9 Labour force participation rates

Males vs. Females, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015

GDP Current USD in billions 42.3 227.6

Real GDP per capita Current USD 2268.6 5766.6

GDP based on PPP per capita

GDP Current international dollar 2482.5 8121.5

Real GDP growth rate Rate per annum (%) -5.4 4.1

Real GDP per capita growth Rate per annum (%) -0.1* 2.0

Labour force growth rate** Rate per annum (%) 4.6 2.1

74.2 72.6

9.9

16.1

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

1990 2015

Male Female

64.3% 56.5%

Source: IMF, ILO, Credit Suisse (* Data is for 1981; **Over 1990-1995 and 2010- 2015) Source: ILO, Credit Suisse

http://www.fifa.com/

09 June 2014


Argentina

No of appearances / FIFA Ranking : 15/ 5

No of Squad players in foreign league: 21






1980 28.1 1.5% 3.2 13.4 70.2 27.2

2015 42.2 0.9% 2.2 17.3 76.2 31.6

Source: UN, Credit Suisse , (* Measured over 1980- 1985 and 2010- 2015)



2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Argentina: 1980

Male Female

2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Argentina: 2015

Male Female


Exhibit 13: Core economic variables, 1980 & 2015 Exhibit 14: Labour force participation rates

Males vs. Females, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015


Real GDP per capita Current USD 7,538 8,926

GDP based on PPP per

capita GDP Current international dollar 4,936.03 19,227.83

Real GDP growth rate Rate per annum (%) 0.7 1.0

Real GDP per capita growth Rate per annum (%) -7.7* -0.1


77.775.2

41.1

48.5

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

1990 2015

Male Female

36.7%26.7%



09 June 2014


Australia

No of WC appearances/ FIFA Ranking: 3 / 62

No of Squad players in foreign league:18






1980 14.7 1.4% 1.9 14.8 75.2 29.4

2015 23.9 1.3% 1.9 22.7 82.4 37.4

Source: Credit Suisse, UN. * Measured over 1980- 1985 and 2010- 2015


in Thousands in Thousands

1,000 500 0 500 1,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Australia: 1980

Male Female

1,000 500 0 500 1,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Australia: 2015

Male Female

Source: Credit Suisse Source: Credit Suisse

Exhibit 18: Core Economic Variables Exhibit 19: Labour Force Participation Rates

1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female gap, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015



GDP based on PPP per capita GDP Current international dollar 9,957.6 45,801.9


Real GDP per capita growth Rate per annum (%) 2.5* 1.5


75.771.5

52.259.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 2015Male Female

23.5% 12.5%



09 June 2014


Belgium

No of appearances/ FIFA Ranking : 11 / 11







1980 9.9 0.1% 1.6 22.1 73.8 34.2

2015 11.2 0.4% 1.8 29.0 80.4 41.9

Source: UN, Credit Suisse, * Measured over 1980- 1985 and 2010- 2015



600 400 200 0 200 400 600

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Belgium: 1980

Male Female

600 400 200 0 200 400 600

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Belgium: 2015

Male Female

Source: Credit Suisse, UN Source: Credit Suisse, UN

Exhibit 23: Belgium: Core Economic Variables Exhibit 24: Labour force participation rates

1980 & 2015 Males vs. Females, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP Current international dollar 10,083.5 39,822.8




60.8 59.9

36.3

47.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


24.5%12.0%



09 June 2014


Bosnia & Herzegovina

No of WC appearances/ FIFA Ranking:: 0 / 27







1980 4.1 1.1% 2.0 9.0 70.7 25.8

2015 3.8 -0.1% 1.3 22.9 76.3 40.1



in thousands in thousands

300 200 100 0 100 200 300

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Bosnia & Herzegovina: 1980

Male Female

200 100 0 100 200

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Bosnia & Herzegovina: 2015

Male Female

Source: UN, Credit Suisse Source: Credit Suisse

Exhibit 28: Core Economic Variables Exhibit 29: Labour Force Participation Rates

1980 & 2015 Males vs. Females, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015

GDP Current USD in billions -- 20.6

Real GDP per capita Current USD -- 5,320

GDP based on PPP per capita GDP Current international dollar -- 9,039.9

Real GDP growth rate Rate per annum (%) -- 3.2

Real GDP per capita growth Rate per annum (%) -- 3.4

Labour force growth rate** Rate per annum (%) -4.9 0.1

56.9 58.7

35.4 34.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


21.5%23.8%

Source: IMF, ILO, Credit Suisse (**Over 1990-1995 and 2010- 2015) Source: ILO, Credit Suisse


09 June 2014


Brazil No of WC appearances / FIFA Ranking: 15 / 3







1980 121.7 2.2% 3.8 7.3 63.5 20.3

2015 203.7 0.8% 1.8 11.6 73.8 31.2


Exhibit 31: Population Pyramid (Age structure) 1980 Exhibit 32: Population Pyramid (Age structure) 2015

in thousands In thousands

10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Brazil: 1980

Male Female

10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Brazil: 2015

Male Female


Exhibit 33: Brazil - Core economic variables Exhibit 34: Labour force participation rates

1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015







85.379.9

44.5

60.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


40.8%19.9%



09 June 2014


Cameroon

No of WC appearances / FIFA Ranking: 6 / 56







1980 8.9 3.0% 6.7 7.1 52.2 17.7

2015 23.4 2.5% 4.8 5.9 54.9 18.5

Source: UN, Credit Suisse, * Measured over 1980- 1985 and 2 010- 2015



1,000 500 0 500 1,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Cameroon: 1980

Male Female

2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Cameroon: 2015

Male Female


Exhibit 38: Cameroon-Core Economic Variables Exhibit 39: Labour Force Participation Rates

1980 & 2015 Male vs. Females, %.

1980 2015


Real GDP per capita Current USD 867 1,458





79.7 78.0

55.3

65.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


24.4% 12.6%

Source: UN, Credit Suisse (* Data is for 1981; **Over 1990-1995 and 2010- 2015) Source: ILO, Credit Suisse


09 June 2014


Chile No of WC appearances / FIFA Ranking: 8 / 14







1980 11.2 1.6% 2.7 9.1 70.8 22.6

2015 17.9 0.9% 1.8 15.3 79.8 33.7




1,000 500 0 500 1,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Chile: 1980

Male Female

1,000 500 0 500 1,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Chile: 2015

Male Female


Exhibit 43: Chile--Core Economic Indicators Exhibit 44: Labour Force Participation Rates

1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015







77.174.1

32.2

48.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


44.9%25.8%



09 June 2014


Colombia








1980 26.9 2.2% 3.7 6.9 66.9 18.8

2015 49.5 1.3% 2.3 10.0 73.9 28.3



in thousands

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Colombia: 1980

Male Female

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Colombia: 2015

Male Female


Exhibit 48: Core Economic Indicators Exhibit 49: Labour Force Participation rates

1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female, %,

1980 2015




GDP

Current international dollar 2,463.6 12,325.9




77.3 79.5

31.6

57.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


45.7%

21.7%



09 June 2014


Costa Rica








1980 2.3 2.8% 3.5 8.3 73.7 20.0

2015 5.0 1.4% 1.8 10.8 79.8 30.6




200 100 0 100 200

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Costa Rica: 1980

Male Female

300 200 100 0 100 200 300

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Costa Rica: 2015

Male Female


Exhibit 53: Core Economic Indicators Exhibit 54: Labour Force Participation

1980 & 2015 Male-Female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015







84.078.9

32.9

47.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


51.1%31.1%

Source: UN, Credit Suisse (**Over 1990-1995 and 2010- 2015) Source: ILO, Credit Suisse


09 June 2014


Cote d’Ivoire





1980 & 2015




1980 8.3 4.1% 7.3 4.9 51.6 17.5

2015 21.3 2.3% 4.9 5.7 50.5 19.1




1,000 500 0 500 1,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Côte d'Ivoire: 1980

Male Female

2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Côte d'Ivoire: 2015

Male Female


Exhibit 58: Core Economic Indicators Exhibit 59: Labour Force Participation Rates

1980 & 2015 1990 & 2015

1980 2015







87.7

81.1

43.4

53.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


44.3%28.0%



09 June 2014


Croatia








1980 4.4 0.8% 2.0 15.6 70.7 32.8

2015 4.3 -0.4% 1.5 28.6 77.0 43.1



in thousands

200 100 0 100 200 300

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Croatia: 1980

Male Female

200 100 0 100 200

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Croatia: 2015

Male Female


Exhibit 63: Core Economic Indicators Exhibit 64: Labour Force Participation

1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015

GDP Current USD in billions 61.7



GDP

Current international dollar -- 18,754.6



Labour force growth rate** Rate per annum (%) 0.5 -0.1

68.7

59.9

46.5 45.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


22.1% 14.0%

Source: UN, Credit Suisse(**Over 1990-1995 and 2010- 2015) Source: ILO, Credit Suisse


09 June 2014


Ecuador








1980 7.9 2.5% 4.4 7.6 64.5 18.8

2015 16.2 1.6% 2.6 10.7 76.4 26.7

Source: Credit Suisse, UN, * Measured over 1980- 1985 and 2010- 2015



900 600 300 0 300 600 900

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Ecuador: 1980

Male Female

900 600 300 0 300 600 900

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Ecuador: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female,%, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





83.9 82.8

39.2

56.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


44.6%26.1%



09 June 2014


France








1980 53.9 0.5% 1.9 22.0 74.7 32.5

2015 65.0 0.5% 2.0 29.6 81.7 41.0

Source: Credit Suisse, UN, * Measured over 1980- 1985 and 2010- 2015



3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

France: 1980

Male Female

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

France: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





65.461.1

46.150.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


19.3%10.4%



09 June 2014


Germany








1980 79.2 -0.1% 1.5 23.7 73.7 36.7

2015 82.6 -0.1% 1.4 32.7 80.7 46.3




4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Germany: 1980

Male Female

4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Germany: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Male vs. Females, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





69.7

65.6

43.4

52.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


26.3% 12.9%



09 June 2014


Ghana


No of Squad players in foreign league:22






1980 10.8 3.3% 6.3 5.0 53.0 17.0

2015 27.0 2.1% 3.9 5.9 61.0 20.9




1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Ghana: 1980

Male Female

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Ghana: 2015

Male Female


Exhibit 83: Core Economic Indicators Exhibit 84: Labour Force Participation Rates 1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015



GDP based on PPP per capita GDP Current international dollar 642.8 3,754.2




72.7 72.8

69.6

67.2

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74


3.1% 5.6%



09 June 2014


Greece








1980 9.6 0.6% 2.0 20.5 74.5 34.2

2015 11.1 0.0% 1.5 31.1 80.7 43.5




600 400 200 0 200 400 600

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Greece: 1980

Male Female

600 400 200 0 200 400 600

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Greece: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





66.8 65.1

36.0

45.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


30.8%19.3%



09 June 2014


Honduras








1980 3.6 3.1% 6.0 6.5 61.6 16.4

2015 8.4 2.0% 3.0 7.5 73.7 22.5




400 200 0 200 400

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Honduras: 1980

Male Female

600 400 200 0 200 400 600

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Honduras: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





86.282.7

33.2

44.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


53%38.8%



09 June 2014


Iran

No of WC appearances / FIFA Ranking : 3 / 43







1980 38.9 4.0% 6.5 5.5 52.1 18.0

2015 79.5 1.3% 1.9 7.8 73.9 29.5




4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Iran: 1980

Male Female

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Iran: 2015

Male Female


Exhibit 98: Core Economic Indicators Exhibit 99: Labour Force participation Rates

1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





80.1

74.6

9.7

17.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


70.4%57.0%



09 June 2014


Italy








1980 56.2 0.2% 1.5 20.7 74.8 34.2

2015 61.1 0.2% 1.5 33.8 82.3 45.0


Exhibit 101: Population Pyramid (Age Structure) 1980



3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Italy: 1980

Male Female

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Italy: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





66.6

59.6

35.138.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


31.4%21.3%



09 June 2014


Japan








1980 115.9 0.7% 1.8 13.4 76.9 32.6

2015 126.8 -0.1% 1.4 43.6 83.5 46.5


Exhibit 106: Population Pyramid(Age Structure) 1980

Exhibit 107: Population Pyramid(Age Structure) 2015


7,500 5,000 2,500 0 2,500 5,000 7,500

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Japan: 1980

Male Female

7,500 5,000 2,500 0 2,500 5,000 7,500

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Japan: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





77.4

70.2

50.1 48.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


27.3% 21.5%



09 June 2014


Mexico


No of Squad players in foreign league : 8






1980 70.4 2.0% 4.3 7.4 67.7 17.4

2015 125.2 1.2% 2.2 10.3 77.4 27.7





7,500 5,000 2,500 0 2,500 5,000 7,500

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Mexico: 1980

Male Female

7,500 5,000 2,500 0 2,500 5,000 7,500

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Mexico: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Male vs. Female, %, 1990 & 2015

Mexico

1980 2015




GDP





83.980.5

34.3

45.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


49.6%34.8%



09 June 2014


Netherlands








1980 14.1 0.5% 1.5 17.4 76.1 31.2

2015 16.8 0.3% 1.8 27.8 80.9 42.4





1,000 500 0 500 1,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Netherlands: 1980

Male Female

1,000 500 0 500 1,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Netherlands: 2015

Male Female


Exhibit 118: Core Economic Indicators Exhibit 119: Labour force participation rates

1980 & 2015 Male vs. female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP


Real GDP growth rate Rate per annum (%) -0.5* 1.6



70.3 70.4

43.0

58.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


27.3%

12.4%



09 June 2014


Nigeria

No of WC appearances/ FIFA Ranking : 4 / 44







1980 73.7 2.6% 6.8 5.2 46.2 18.0

2015 183.5 2.8% 6.0 5.1 52.3 17.7





10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Nigeria: 1980

Male Female

20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Nigeria: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Male vs. female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP

Current international dollar 700.2 3,177.3




74.7

64.1

39.0

48.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


35.7% 16.0%



09 June 2014


Portugal








1980 9.8 0.4% 2.0 18.3 72.3 30.7

2015 10.6 0.0% 1.3 29.3 79.8 43.0


Exhibit 126: Population Pyramid (Age Distribution) 1980

Exhibit 127: Population Pyramid (Age Distribution) 2015


600 400 200 0 200 400 600

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Portugal: 1980

Male Female

600 400 200 0 200 400 600

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Portugal: 2015

Male Female


Exhibit 128: Core Economic Indicators Exhibit 129: Labour Force participation rates

1980 & 2015 Male vs. female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





73.3

68.0

49.356.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


23.9% 11.6%



09 June 2014


Republic of Korea








1980 37.5 1.6% 2.2 6.2 67.4 22.2

2015 49.8 0.5% 1.3 17.9 81.4 40.5





3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Republic of Korea: 1980

Male Female

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Republic of Korea: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Males vs. females, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





73.4 71.0

47.1 49.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


26.3% 21.9%



09 June 2014


Russia








1980 138.5 0.7% 2.0 15.0 67.5 31.3

2015 142.1 -0.2% 1.5 18.8 67.9 38.5





7,500 5,000 2,500 0 2,500 5,000 7,500

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Russia: 1980

Male Female

7,500 5,000 2,500 0 2,500 5,000 7,500

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Russia: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Males vs. females, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015

GDP Current USD in billions -- 2108.8





Labour force growth rate** Rate per annum (%) -1.7 -0.2

76.871.4

60.156.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


16.7% 14.7%

Source: IMF, ILO, Credit Suisse (**Over 1990-1995 and 2010- 2015) Source: ILO, Credit Suisse


09 June 2014


Spain

No of WC appearances / FIFA Ranking :13 / 1







1980 37.5 0.5% 1.9 17.8 75.9 30.7

2015 47.2 0.4% 1.5 27.6 82.0 42.2


Exhibit 141: Population Pyramid ( Age Structure) 1980

Exhibit 142: Population Pyramid ( Age Structure) 2015


2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Spain: 1980

Male Female

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Spain: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Male vs. females, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





68.9 67.0

33.8

51.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


35.1% 15.5%



09 June 2014


Switzerland








1980 6.3 0.5% 1.5 20.9 76.1 34.6

2015 8.2 1.0% 1.5 27.1 82.5 42.3


Exhibit 146: Population Pyramids (Age Distribution) 1980

Exhibit 147: Population Pyramids (Age Distribution) 2015


300 200 100 0 100 200 300

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Switzerland: 1980

Male Female

400 200 0 200 400

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Switzerland: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Males vs. females, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





80.3

73.5

56.2 60.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


24.1% 13.3%



09 June 2014


United Kingdom (as a proxy for England)








1980 56.3 0.1% 1.8 23.3 74.1 34.4

2015 63.8 0.6% 1.9 28.1 80.4 40.5





3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

In Thousands

UK: 1980

Male Female

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

UK: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Male vs. female,%, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





74.7

68.2

52.6 55.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


22.1% 12.3%



09 June 2014


Uruguay








1980 2.9 0.6% 2.6 16.8 71.0 30.1

2015 3.4 0.3% 2.1 22.3 77.1 34.8





200 100 0 100 200

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Uruguay: 1980

Male Female

150 100 50 0 50 100 150

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Uruguay: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Male vs. female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





80.3

73.5

56.2 60.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


32.5% 19.7%



09 June 2014


USA








1980 230.2 1.0% 1.8 17.1 74.3 30.1

2015 325.1 0.8% 2.0 22.2 78.9 37.7





15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

USA: 1980

Male Female

15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

USA: 2015

Male Female



1980 & 2015 Male vs. female, %, 1990 & 2015

1980 2015




GDP





75.469.8

56.4 57.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


19.0%12.5%

Source: IMF, ILO, Credit Suisse (* Data is for 1981; **Over 1990-1995 and 2010- 2015) Source: Ilo, Credit Suisse


09 June 2014


Conclusions

This report highlights the heterogeneous demographics and economics of the countries

competing in the World Cup 2014 in Brazil. As we have been arguing that demographics

has far-reaching and multi-faceted implications for growth, fiscal sustainability, asset

prices, pensions, urbanization, inequality and youth unemployment. Our research reports

emphasize and use the fact that demographics is about “consumers and workers”, who

are core to the economic, financial and market development of countries. A listing of

recent research is at the end of this report.

This report is about the changing demographics of the 32 countries that are competing

and are represented by a squad of 23 players and a coach in Brazil. We illustrate the

changes over time across these countries and present a comparative picture based

on the latest numbers too. The Football World Cup exemplifies the fact that the “Beautiful

Game” allows for participation from a very wide range of countries that are very dissimilar.

For the 32 countries in our sample, variations are quite stark: on GDP per capita at PPP

where the differences are of magnitude of 30 times, to population growth differential of 3.2%

p.a. to life expectancy differences of 31.8 years, fertility rate differences of 4.7 children per

woman and migration rate differences of nearly 10 per 1000 people—the heterogeneity is

wide and huge. On the football field it may be 11 players representing their country but the

countries they represent are very different on many core characteristics.

We present for each country a statistic on the number of players in the World Cup squads

that play in foreign leagues, a testimony to the globalization of the world as well as the

commercialization of football. The Appendix presents the global spread of countries that

competed at different stages of the competition, the median age of the country and the

average age of the 23-member squad age.

09 June 2014


Credit Suisse’s recent Global Demographics and Pensions Research

Demographically Emerging Markets are still "Important & Relevant" (23 May 2014)

Link: Demographically Emerging Markets are still "Important & Relevant"

Exploring how demographics affects sovereign spreads (19 March 2014)

Link: Exploring how demographics affects sovereign spreads

Americas’ Demographics & their effects (24 Jan 2014)

Link: Americas’ Demographics & their effects

A comparative demographic analysis of EU28 (17 Dec 2013)

Link: A comparative demographic analysis of EU28

China: Abolishing the one child policy (6 Dec 2013)

Link: China: Abolishing the one child policy

Can the “Asian Tigers” roar back? Demographic insights (8 Nov 2013)

Link: Can the “Asian Tigers” roar back? Demographic insights

Demographics, Debt & Sovereign Ratings (1 November 2013)

Link: Demographics, Debt & Sovereign Ratings

Demographic insights into policy: Asia’s Big 3 (China, India & Japan) (30 August 2013)

Link: Demographic insights into policy: Asia’s Big 3 (China, India & Japan)

Chinese Demographics – Labour mobility, migration, urbanization and reforms (31 July 2013)

Link: Chinese Demographics – Labour mobility, migration, urbanization and reforms

Global Demographics: Spotlight on UN revisions, Conditional longevity and Economic growth (3 July 2013)

Link: Global Demographics: Spotlight on UN revisions, Conditional longevity and Economic growth

Rising youth unemployment: A threat to growth and stability (25 March 2013)

Link: Rising youth unemployment: A threat to growth and stability

ASEAN’s positive demographics underpins stable growth (31 October 2012)

Link: ASEAN’s positive demographics underpins stable growth

Africa’s Demographic Promise: Opportunities & Challenges (14 August 2012)

Link: Africa's Demographic Promise: Opportunities & Challenges

Assessing Asia’s Demographic Promise (16 May 2012)

Link: Assessing Asia’s Demographic Promise

Assessing Latin America’s Demographic Prospects (September 2011)

Link: Assessing Latin America’s Demographic Prospects

Middle East and North Africa: Demographic Highlights (Feb 2011)

Link: Middle East and North Africa: Demographic Highlights

https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/doc?sourceid=em&document_id=x570461

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/E4OTUF

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/mxCGdB

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/waZumT

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/teCkCt

https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source_id=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1025105701&serialid=ZPKRVcIZ0Q3VYKz%2fiZ0oRKfLOUoYCviEg0HADiil57A%3d

https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source_id=csplusresearchcp&document_id=805737470&serialid=pwXUb2Js1uPYhg2oQnarcpRaxce4AH7fmTMLq3nIOzw%3d

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/mIYpxH

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/qircfU

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/kDscIK

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/kDscIK

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/kYwV2F

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/IBgD9p

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/IBgD9p

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/FYd0d0

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/FyUE81

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/w50xX8

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/w53cSh

09 June 2014


Appendix: Countries Globally, Median Age & Average Squad age (2014 World Cup)

Exhibit 165: Countries Geographically in World Cup 2014

Status of countries with respect to 2014 FIFA World Cup:

Team qualified Team eliminated Team did not enter World Cup Country was not a FIFA member at the start of qualification

Source: Wikimedia Commons

Exhibit 166: Median Age and Average Age of the 23-member Squad

Years, the dots on the bars indicate the average squad age

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Median age of country Average age of the squad player


GLOBAL FIXED INCOME AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH

Ric Deverell

Global Head of Fixed Income and Economics Research

+1 212 538 8964

[email protected]

GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS & PENSIONS RESEARCH

Amlan Roy Global Head of Demographics

+44 20 7888 1501

[email protected]

Sonali Punhani

+44 20 7883 4297

[email protected]

Angela Hsieh

+44 20 7883 9639 [email protected]

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Investment principal on bonds can be eroded depending on sale price or market price. In addition, there are bonds on which investment principal can be eroded due to changes in redemption amounts. Care is required when investing in such instruments. When you purchase non-listed Japanese fixed income securities (Japanese government bonds, Japanese municipal bonds, Japanese government guaranteed bonds, Japanese corporate bonds) from CS as a seller, you will be requested to pay the purchase price only.

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