World Cotton Market In the Next Season Önümüzdeki Sezonda Dünya Pamuk Pazarı Cotton Council International and Cotton Incorporated
Jan 24, 2016
World Cotton Market In the Next Season
Önümüzdeki SezondaDünya Pamuk Pazarı
Cotton Council International and Cotton Incorporated
World Cotton PricesDünya Pamuk Fiyatları
cents/lb
Sources: Cotlook, Reuters
cents/lb
Sources: Cotlook, Reuters
World Cotton PricesDünya Pamuk Fiyatları
• Lower Acreage
Sources: NCC Planting Intentions, USDA March Prospective Plantings, USDA NASS
million acres
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
• Lower Acreagemillion acres
Cotton/Corn
new crop futures: cotton/corn ratio
Sources: NCC Planting Intentions, USDA March Prospective Plantings, USDA NASS, Reuters (crop price ratios are Jan-Apr averages of new crop futures (Dec 2013 for cotton & corn, Nov 2013 for soybeans)
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports
thousand tons of U.S. cotton shipped, rolling 4-week average
Source: USDA
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports
Source: USDA
USDA export forecasts in million tons
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports , lower stocks for exporters
Source: USDA
USDA ending stocks forecasts in million tons
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports, more stocks in China
Source: USDA
USDA ending stocks forecasts in million tons
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports• Chinese policy
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
Price OutlookFiyatlara Bakış
Record stocks, but stocks withheld from market
- Demand-related questions
- 2013/14 acreage & Production- Chinese cotton policy
Source: USDA
Production Surplus Expected in 2013/142013/14’te Üretim Fazlalığı Bekleniyor
Early USDA estimates
Source: USDA
million tons
Source: USDA
million tons
Stocks Forecast to Reach another RecordStokların Yeni bir Rekor Kırması Bekleniyor
15.3
19.319.0
Source: USDA
Stocks Forecast to Further Concentrate in ChinaStokların Çin’de Daha da Yoğunlaşması Bekleniyor
Source: USDASource: USDA
15.3
19.319.0
million tons
Buy and withhold from the market
How to supply mills?Releases from reserves?
Imports?
million tons
6.5
Chinese ReservesÇin Rezervleri
Chinese Reserves
Chinese GrowersÇinli Yetiştiriciler
13%VAT
20,400 RMB/ton150 cents/lb
17,750 RMB/ton128 cents/lb
Chinese Spinning Mills
19,000 RMB/ton (137 cents/lb)
−Slow delivery
−Lower grades offered when higher grades wanted
−Higher volumes and higher grades promised for release
Chinese ReservesÇin Rezervleri
Chinese Mill-UseÇin İşletme Kullanımı
Source: USDA
million tons
Chinese Yarn ImportsÇin İplik İthalatları
thousand tonsRecord volumes
in recent months
40% from Pakistan
20% from India
Source: Cotlook
Chinese Spinning Mills19,000 RMB/ton
(137 cents/lb)
Tariff-Rate Quota (TRQ) allowed as part of WTO agreement894,000 tons (4.1 million bales) with 1% duty
Sliding-Scale Quota, duty varies with price (5-40%)Discretionary volume, 3:1 ratio
Outside of quota, 40% dutyUntried until this year
13%VAT
Imports
Chinese ReservesÇin Rezervleri
cents/lb
Source: Cotlook
Outside quota option becomes viable around 85 cents/lb
Higher prices could be expected to trigger releases
Chinese & World Cotton PricesÇin vey Dünya Pamuk Fiyatları
World Consumption less ChinaÇin Hariç Dünya Tüketimi
Source: USDA
million tons
70.772.5
www.cottonusa.orgwww.cottoninc.com
www.cottonusaturkey.comwww.cottonuniversity.org
Cotton Council International and Cotton Incorporated