World Bank Documentdocuments.worldbank.org/curated/en/...of-the-World-Bank-Jobs-Po… · World Bank Operational Portfolio The World ank Uganda’s jobs-relevant lending portfolio

JOBS WORKING

PAPERIssue No. 36

Uganda: A Review of the World Bank Jobs Portfolio

Vismay Parikh and Timothy Clay

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This report was prepared by the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Jobs Group. The principal authors are

Vismay Parikh and Timothy Clay. The report was prepared as a background paper for the Uganda Jobs

Strategy for Inclusive Growth led by Dino Merotto (Task Team Leader). The Jobs Conceptual Framework

used for analysis in this report was developed by Siv Tokle. The report was prepared under the general

direction and ongoing support of Ian Walker and Robert Chase. Editing assistance was provided by Aldo

Morri.

Many colleagues in the WBG provided excellent input, comments, and guidance at various stages of the

analysis. The authors are particularly grateful to World Bank Country Managers, Antony Thompson and

Christina Malmberg-Calvo, for ongoing support, and to Holger Kray, Michael Munavu, Martin Onyach

Olaa, Rachel Sebudde, Rich Walker, Michael Wong, Juliet Gombya-Ssembajjwe, Rosemary Birungi

Kyabukooli, and Sheila Kulubya from the Uganda Country Team for advice, insights and logistical

support. The authors acknowledge the rich comments provided by the peer reviewers of this

documents: Jenny Krisch (SIDA), Somik Lal, Suleiman Namara, and Ellen Olafson, and helpful feedback

from officials in Uganda’s Ministries of Finance and Gender, Labour and Social Development.

This report has been made possible through a grant from the World Bank’s Rapid Social Response

Program, which is supported by the Russian Federation, Norway, the United Kingdom’s Department for

International Development and the Governments of Australia and Sweden.

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Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 4

2. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 5

2.1 Country Perspective ...................................................................................................................... 5

2.2 Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 6

2.3 Jobs in Uganda: A Summary of Findings from the Jobs Diagnostic .............................................. 7

2.4 Review of SCD and CPF .................................................................................................................. 8

3. Portfolio Overview ................................................................................................................... 10

3.1 World Bank Lending Operations .................................................................................................. 10

3.2 Analysis of Active Lending Operations ........................................................................................ 12

3.3 Analysis of Pipeline Lending Operations ..................................................................................... 17

4. Gap Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 17

4.1 WBG Operations and Accordance to the CPF .............................................................................. 17

4.2 Gaps in World Bank Portfolio ....................................................................................................... 18

5. Review of Project Ratings ......................................................................................................... 19

6. Review of Quality of Jobs Indicators Used by Projects ................................................................ 20

7. Recommendations .................................................................................................................... 20

8. Annexes ................................................................................................................................... 22

Annex A – Jobs Conceptual Framework .................................................................................................. 22

Annex B – Definitions Used in The Jobs Conceptual Framework ........................................................... 23

Annex C – Project Information/ Content in Relation to Jobs .................................................................. 28

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1. Executive Summary

The objective of this report is to improve coordination and delivery of Bank activities in Uganda,

maximizing the impact on the creation, quality, and inclusiveness of jobs. An important component of this

report is the mapping of the World Bank’s (WB) portfolio against a framework for monitoring jobs impacts

developed by the Jobs Group, the Jobs Conceptual Framework (JCF).

The JCF links macro-, meso-, and micro-level jobs interventions with their potential to affect jobs-related

outcomes. These jobs outcomes focus on three dimensions: creating job opportunities in the formal sector

(More Jobs), enhancing quality and productivity in the informal sector (Better Jobs), and promoting access

to jobs for vulnerable populations (Inclusive Jobs), including women, youth, the bottom 40 percent, and

lagging regions. In addition, intermediate outcomes are considered from a jobs viewpoint, as these are

often pre-conditions for achieving higher level results related to more, better, and inclusive jobs.

Intermediate outcomes also tend to be the most often cited by project teams as achievable and realistic

within the timeline of a WB lending operation.

The report presents an analysis of the jobs portfolio for Uganda covering WB operations with the objective

being to understand the approach towards jobs-specific targets and identify gaps to influence future

investments. This portfolio review looks at individual project interventions and the balance of the

portfolio, to see how they align with national priorities and incorporate jobs-relevant outcomes. The

analysis looks at the type of interventions (macro and regulatory, sectoral and labor policies) and their

specific jobs outcomes including creation, quality and inclusion.

Priority sectors and interventions are identified through the review of Systematic Country Diagnostics

(SCD) and Country Partnership Framework (CPF), which act as baseline and comparators against which

project interventions are evaluated.

World Bank Operational Portfolio

The World Bank Uganda’s jobs-relevant lending portfolio covers 26 active and pipeline operations with a

total commitment of USD 3.10 billion.

Most projects (70%) focus on sectoral and regional interventions. The interventions areas are dominated

by ICT, transport/ logistics, and spatial development. This is in line with the priority sectors identified in

the SCD and CPF, as well as the Government of Uganda’s Development Plan. Labor-related interventions

represent 25 percent of the portfolio through skills and training, livelihood/ CDD, and public employment

services. Gaps are visible with respect to macro and regulatory policies which only represents 5 percent

of the portfolio.

- In terms of interventions, WB lending portfolio is dominated by sectoral and regional investments

which largely constitutes of infrastructure interventions ICT, transport/ logistics, and spatial

development. Interventions addressing labor policies are absorbed by livelihoods projects. There

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are major gaps in jobs-focused macro and regulatory interventions and those influencing labor

regulations.

- In terms of outcomes, there is even distribution across intermediate outcomes, jobs creation,

quality and inclusion. However, there are gaps within each type of outcome – interventions lack

significant efforts to expand domestic private sector job creation through support for new

enterprise formation; jobs quality outcomes are focused on productivity and earnings and less so

on working conditions and benefits; jobs access is limited to inclusion of vulnerable communities

with inadequate efforts to influence labor force participation and workings of the labor market.

- The review presents a significant gap, specifically in sectoral investments in infrastructure and

agriculture, to include direct, indirect and induced jobs impacts.

Recommendations

Uganda’s lending portfolio needs to focus on;

1. youth employment interventions;

2. value chain development to support jobs;

3. stimulating private sector growth through regulatory policies that provide better access to finance

and business development; and

4. systematizing the metrics in jobs-relevant operations, including direct, indirect and induced jobs.

2. Introduction

2.1 Country Perspective

In the past decade, Uganda has made significant progress in reducing poverty and sustaining high

economic growth. Between 1993 and 2013, Uganda’s poverty headcount was reduced by 50 percent. In

addition, economic gains were shared with the bottom 40 percent whose consumption grew three

percent annually during the period. However, Uganda still faces considerable challenges that include poor

infrastructure, weak public service delivery, low levels of human capital, and underdeveloped

institutions1. According to the World Bank’s (WB) Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD), two key factors

have contributed to Uganda’s growth in the last decade: (i) increased agriculture incomes and (ii) growth

in non-farm self-employment. To sustain this economic growth, Uganda needs to transform the

agriculture sector to move up the value chain and increase its transition to non-farm wage employment.

This note analyzes jobs-related projects in Uganda to identify focus areas and gaps in the portfolio in

relation to country priorities mentioned in the WB’s Country Policy Framework (CPF). The objective of this

1 Boosting Inclusive Growth and Accelerating Poverty Reduction, Uganda Systematic Country Diagnostic, World Bank, 2015

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exercise is to understand how well the jobs agenda is being implemented through lending operations and

the types of targeted jobs outcomes. This note seeks to influence future investments and analytical work

in the country and provide a baseline for further analysis on jobs in the World Bank and other donors’

portfolios.

2.2 Methodology

This portfolio review draws on a tool developed by the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Jobs Group: The Jobs

Conceptual Framework (JCF). The JCF is an analytical tool that links macro, meso, and micro-level jobs

interventions with their potential to affect jobs-related outcomes. These jobs outcomes focus on three

dimensions: creating job opportunities in the formal sector (more wage jobs), enhancing quality and

productivity in the informal sector (better informal wage and higher productivity self-employed jobs), and

promoting access to jobs for vulnerable populations (inclusive jobs), including women, youth, the bottom

40 percent, and lagging regions. In addition, intermediate outcomes are considered from a jobs viewpoint,

as these are often pre-conditions for achieving higher-level results related to more, better, and inclusive

jobs. Intermediate outcomes also tend to be the most often cited by WB project teams as achievable and

realistic within the timeline of a WB lending operation.

This analysis covers an assessment of jobs-relevant activities in the following:

▪ WB active operations: Lending projects ongoing as of November, 2018.

▪ WB pipeline operations: A forward looking analysis of planned operations and how they

address the jobs agenda for the remaining CPF period.

▪ WB regional operations: An analysis of the ongoing regional projects and the benefits accrued

to Uganda through synergies in the region.

The analysis comes at a pivotal time as the country team is preparing for the Performance and Learning

Review (PLR), a mid-term review of CPF priorities to assess its relevance for the current CPF period (FY 16-

21). To this extent, the team worked with counterparts in the country office who provided valuable

insights and analysis.

For WB investment operations, “jobs-relevant” projects include projects assessed as having an explicit

and substantive link to the promotion of job creation, job quality, and job access for women, youth, and

the bottom 40 percent. Activities in the portfolio are identified as jobs-relevant based on the design,

description, and results frameworks articulated by WBG teams in project documents. For development

partners, the analysis covers interventions for which project information was publicly available, and

additional information provided on request. Finally, in the case of WB Advisory Services and Analytics

(ASA), the team reviewed the full portfolio and made its own assessment of “jobs-relevance” following

the same guidelines applied to investment projects.

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2.3 Jobs in Uganda: A Summary of Findings from the Jobs Diagnostic

The Uganda Jobs Diagnostic analysis was carried out by the Jobs Group in 2017/18. The objective of the

Jobs Diagnostic (JD) is to identify the main challenges to job creation and to improve the quality and

inclusiveness of employment. The JD is a data-driven exercise that looks at macroeconomic and

demographic factors, as well as labor supply and demand, to pinpoint main constraints for a jobs-rich

growth path. The fact that JDs are data-driven allows for international comparisons based on standardized

datasets. The JD covers three main areas: macro and demographic trends, labor supply, and labor

demand.

Macro Summary

As economic growth slows, Uganda’s labor force is growing faster than ever. Given the flow of new

entrants into the workforce, recent growth is not fast enough for Uganda to create more and better jobs

for workers in the economy. Productivity growth has been particularly slow in the agricultural sector and

has limited the movement of labor out of agriculture and into off-farm work in cities and towns. Exports

and aid-inflows, drivers of growth until the mid-2000s, are no longer satisfactory. With the decline in aid,

public sector consumption has tightened as a share of GDP. In addition, growth in the services and

industrial sectors has recently fallen back to Sub-Saharan African averages. Consequently, the demand

for labor is growing more slowly, as reflected in declining median real earnings for workers despite longer

mean hours worked (UNHS data), and declining average remuneration per employee (UBI 2001 and 2010).

Labor Supply

Uganda has the world’s fastest growing labor force which is projected to double by 2030. Labor force

participation, however, is decreasing, and unpaid family work is becoming more prominent. Youth

generally join the workforce on their parents’ farms. Although wage work has been rising over time, it is

mostly informal. Furthermore, earnings are falling and so are returns to education. Earnings are falling

fastest in services, where hours worked are rising. This suggests that the recent move out of agriculture

(2012-2016) was not driven by higher productivity; indeed, macro analysis of value added and

employment suggest the average productivity of work in services is declining.

Labor Demand in Firms

Uganda’s private firms are unusually small by global comparison, and are increasingly getting smaller, with

a larger share of an increased number of workers in a larger number of micro and small firms (2000-10).

The entry of new micro firms was dramatic between 2000-2010, creating a lot of waged jobs. Firm

efficiency is improving, with value added per worker rising. Most gains, however, accrue to capital since

average real wages continue to fall (with exception of the traded goods sectors). Most firms are in

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commerce, hotel and restaurant industries, where average labor productivity is also falling. Labor

productivity increases amongst firms can be attributed to the manufacturing, construction, and social

services sectors. Furthermore, while large firms seem to struggle to raise average productivity, barriers to

firm entry seem relatively low, as evidenced by the increase in the number of new firms.

Job Diagnostic Recommendations

To reduce poverty and accelerate inclusive growth, Uganda needs a jobs strategy that:

1. Raises productivity of small holder farmers.

2. Creates backward linkages between agri-business and smallholders (out-grower schemes, and

others).

3. Develops exports of these products.

4. Expands off-farm waged employment in rural areas and secondary towns.

5. Raises the productivity of micro firms.

6. Hastens urbanization to secondary towns (demand and service centers).

7. Targets youth employment.

8. Facilitates mobility of labor (preparing youth for jobs).

2.4 Review of SCD and CPF

Both the SCD and CPF highlight access to, and availability of employment opportunities as a focus area for

Uganda’s growth. The SCD identifies eight priority areas2 for Uganda to generate higher growth. While all

eight areas are interrelated and will have direct or indirect impacts on jobs, Priority Area 2: Agricultural

Productivity and Commercialization” and “Priority Area 7: Private Sector Competitiveness and

Diversification” link directly to labor and jobs outcomes. Priority Area 2 aims to stimulate growth and

productivity within the agricultural sector, the sector with the largest employment. It aims to do this

through improving agricultural storage facilities, ago-processing, access to finance, transport, market

access, and resource management. Agriculture will continue to remain an important sector in the future

as it employs about 70 percent of Ugandans. While recent transition to non-farm enterprises have

contributed to economic growth, these jobs continue to remain in the informal sector with low

productivity. Commercialization and crop market diversification hold the key to improving farmer

earnings through transitioning from subsistence farming by improving productivity. This involves use of

modern farm equipment, improved quality inputs, sustainable land and water management, improved

skills, shifting to high-value fruits and vegetables, and improving access to finance. Progress on farms

2 SCD priority areas include: 1. Macro-fiscal stability, 2. Agricultural productivity and commercialization, 3. Consumption smoothing, 4. Public service delivery, 5. Urbanization, 6. Fertility reduction, 7. Private sector competitiveness and diversification, and 8. Public sector effectiveness.

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needs to be linked to markets through value chain development, better transport and storage, and

consistent government policies.

Priority Area 7 aims to drive private sector competitiveness and diversification by improving access to

finance for firms, improving business regulations and land markets, investment in road infrastructure,

expanding electricity and ICT access, promoting technical and vocational training for youth and women,

increasing women’s labor market participation, and enhancing skills for productive sectors.

Several factors constrain growth in Uganda. Studies show that inadequate infrastructure facilities—

electricity, roads and water supply—undermine the private sector. The electricity supply has improved

after Bujagali hydropower plant was established, but inflated electricity costs during peak hours remain a

burden for the firms. Poor transit and transport infrastructure has raised the cost of doing business in

Uganda. The most common mode of transportation in Uganda, the national road network, is fast

deteriorating due to overloading and inadequate road maintenance. The cost of finance is high, and few

firms have bank loans or lines of credit due to high cost and huge collateral requirements. Shortage of

specific skills among graduates, especially in high-tech services such as finance, telecommunication, and

engineering has led to mismatch in the demand for jobs and quality of supply. Several business regulations

pertaining to taxes, land, building, construction permits, and border crossings also constrain firms.

Based on the SCD, the CPF identifies three strategic focus areas:

1. Strengthening governance, accountability, and service delivery.

2. Raising incomes in rural areas.

3. Boosting inclusive growth in urban areas.

Consistent with the SCD, the CPF recognizes the dynamic between rural and urban development. In the

short run, most of the focus is on the agriculture sector where most of the poor and vulnerable work. In

the medium to longer term, the focus will shift towards urbanization and creation of jobs for the rapidly

growing labor force. Under Focus Area 2, the CPF aims to generate growth and reduce poverty and

vulnerability by unleashing Uganda’s agricultural potential through productivity enhancement and

commercialization. Concerted effort is needed to catalyze investments in agriculture, move up the value

chain to agro-processing, and boost agricultural exports. Specific interventions include improving access

and security of land, improving delivery of extension services, and providing competitive financial

products. Under Focus Area 3, the World Bank and IFC will support the Government of Uganda (GoU) to

improve the business environment and provide essential services in urban areas. This will involve

encouraging private investment for more and better jobs, labor market readiness. and access to finance

for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Uganda has one of the world’s youngest populations with almost half of its people under the age of 15.

The CPF mentions the need to equip Uganda’s young and fast-growing population with the required skills

to make a better living in the rural sector or enter the job market in urban areas. The CPF, however, does

not directly address youth employment within its strategic focus areas. With 700,000 new labor market

entrants every year, and an annual labor force growth of 4.8 percent per year, this area requires greater

attention in the CPF.

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The SCD and the CPF are in accordance with Uganda’s second National Development Plan (NDPII). NDPII

plans to create roughly 640,000 new jobs annually through investments and improved productivity in the

agricultural, industrial, and services sectors. While employment in the oil sector is not expected during

the CPF period, many employment opportunities will potentially be generated in this area.

The CPF proposes a range of indicators to track progress and achieve the objective of promoting economic

growth. The extent to which these indictors capture jobs outcomes vary. Focus Area 2 (Raising Incomes

in Rural Areas) uses key indicators that measures both yields and marketed volumes of selected crops. It

fails, however, to measure the number of beneficiaries and their income levels. Focus Area 3 (Boost

Growth in Urban Areas) proposes indicators that track improved business regulations and access to

finance. Like Focus Area 2, it fails to include indicators capturing impact on jobs (number of direct/indirect

jobs) or beneficiaries reached through jobs-relevant interventions (such as for youth or women). This

focus area also seeks to enhance labor market skills and includes an indicator that tracks employers

participating in skills training programs. However, indicators focusing on supply side interventions—such

as quality of training, number of beneficiaries trained and matched with a job—are missing.

3. Portfolio Overview

This section presents the findings from the portfolio analysis. It includes mapping of WBG jobs-relevant

project interventions and the outcomes they target, as articulated in the project documents. The Jobs

Conceptual Framework (JCF) is referred to as a “portfolio map.” Section 3.1 focuses on WB operations.

The analysis presents outputs from the portfolio mapping exercise based on (i) Count (number of projects,

and (ii) Value (level of investments based on Total Commitment Amount) associated with specific jobs-

related intervention types (macro and regulatory, sectoral and regional, and labor policies), and intended

outcomes (job creation, quality, access).

3.1 World Bank Lending Operations

The current WB Uganda lending portfolio with jobs relevance includes 26 projects (20 active and six

pipeline projects). These projects account for 60 percent of the entire portfolio with total commitment

amount of USD 3.10 billion (75 percent of the total value of the WB’s lending portfolio). Projects are

spread across 10 GPs: Agriculture (8 percent), Energy and Extractives (15 percent), Transport and Digital

Development (8 percent), Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience (23 percent), Water (12 percent), Education

(8 percent), Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation (12 percent), Social Protection and Labor (8

percent), Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment (4 percent), and Health, Nutrition & Population (4

percent). This distribution is in accordance with the key sectors prioritized in GoU’s Development Plan,

and the SCD, and the CPF: agriculture, infrastructure (transport and energy), urban development, labor

market readiness, and access to finance for MSMEs.

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Figure 3.1. Uganda World Bank Lending Operations (as of December 2018)

Figure 3.2. Active Portfolio Figure 3.3. Pipeline Portfolio

26($3.1 bn)

17($1.0 bn)

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11 ($0.5 bn)

Jobs Related Other

6($1.0 bn)

6($0.5 bn)

Jobs Related Other

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3.2 Analysis of Active Lending Operations

Figures 3.4 displays the percent of jobs projects as well as project value that address the defined jobs

outcome areas (intermediate, more jobs, better jobs, and more inclusive jobs). Figure 3.5 looks at all jobs

related intervention areas while Figure 3.6 disaggregates the interventions types into macro and

regulatory, sectoral and regional, and labor policies.

Figure 3.4. Percent of Projects and Project Value that Address Different Jobs Outcomes

As displayed in Figure 3.4, the number of projects and the value of portfolio investments are closely

aligned. A large portion of the portfolio focuses on firm performance and investment (65% of projects),

job creation by employers (79%), worker productivity and earnings (65%), livelihood outcomes (66%) and

access and opportunity for jobs (47%). Few projects however promote job creation through new

enterprises and the development of better working conditions and benefits.

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Figure 3.5. Project Intervention Types

Figure 3.5 displays the types of jobs project interventions found in the portfolio. The vast majority of

projects (70 percent) focus on sectoral and regional interventions. The interventions areas are dominated

by ICT, transport/ logistics, and spatial development. This is in line with the priority sectors identified in

the SCD and CPF, as well as the GoU’s Development Plan. Labor-related interventions represent 25

percent of the portfolio through skills and training, livelihood and community-driven development (CDD),

and public employment services. Gaps are visible with respect to macro and regulatory policies,

representing only five percent of the portfolio.

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Figure 3.6. Percent of Projects that Address Different Jobs Outcomes by Intervention Type

Figure 3.6 displays the percent of projects associated with intended outcomes (more jobs, better jobs,

inclusive Jobs) by project intervention type (macro and regulatory, sectoral and regional, labor policy).

Following is a brief discussion of the portfolio mapped for each intended outcome area:

Intermediate:

Much of the jobs-related portfolio targets intermediate outcomes. Most significantly, this includes

interventions that raise investment and improve the performance of firms. Interventions responsible for

this are primarily sectoral and include transport, energy, ICT and MSME projects. This includes, for

example, projects like the Competitiveness and Enterprise Development Project (P130471) and the

Albertine Region Sustainable Development Project (P145101).

The second most commonly targeted intermediate outcome relates to improving access to markets,

primarily through infrastructure, spatial development, and trade policy. A good example is the North-

Eastern Road-Corridor Asset Management Project (P125590), as well as other agriculture and rural

development projects that invest in secondary roads and other infrastructure to improve access to

markets. Another example is the Regional Great Lakes Trade Facilitation Project (P149970), which aims to

facilitate cross-border trade by increasing the capacity for commerce and reducing the costs faced by

traders, especially small-scale and women traders.

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15

Finally, human capital development for improved employment and earnings is targeted primarily through

skills training and a few ICT and agricultural projects. An example of a relevant skills training project is the

Uganda Skills Development Project (P145309), which aims to enhance the capacity of institutions to

deliver high quality, demand-driven training programs in target sectors. In contrast, an example of an ICT

project that focuses on human capital is the Uganda Grid Expansion and Reinforcement Project (GERP)

(P133305). While this project largely focuses on building ICT infrastructure, subcomponent C-2 and C-3

develop curriculum to enhance the ICT skills of current and new staff.

Job Creation:

Portfolio projects targeting job creation are focused primarily on expanding employment within existing

firms and promoting self-employment. These include sectoral interventions such as transport, agriculture

and ICT-related projects as well as labor interventions focused on skills and training. The Agriculture

Cluster Development Project (P145037) focuses both on expanding employment within existing firms, as

well as promoting self-employment. The project aims to raise on-farm productivity, production, and

marketable volumes of selected agricultural commodities for farmers, especially smallholders, and other

value chain actors at the local, district, and national level. In contrast, relatively few projects focus on

promoting job creation through new firm investment. Exceptions to this are the MSME business

development projects, such as the Competitiveness and Enterprise Development Project (P130471) and

the Northern Uganda Business Support Program (P147258).

Job Quality:

Job quality is measured through three different types of intended outcomes:

• improved productivity (which should lead to higher wages).

• improved working conditions and benefits (for example, health and safety, and pensions).

• improved earnings (for self-employment and livelihoods-oriented activities).

The World Bank Uganda portfolio has interventions that address worker productivity and earnings and

livelihoods. Worker productivity outcomes are primarily addressed through infrastructure (ICT, spatial

development, transport), skills and training, and MSME business development interventions. Earning and

livelihood outcomes are addressed through similar interventions including infrastructure (water, spatial

development, transport) and skills and training.

The portfolio has limited emphasis on working conditions and benefits. Projects that do are either trade

and or spatial development interventions. The Regional Great Lakes Trade Facilitation Project (P149970)

provides a good example: one component of this project is to foster the security of small-scale traders

through improving border infrastructure by creating demarcated lanes for safe passage of pedestrian

traffic, lighting and cameras, and providing warehousing so traders can safely store their goods and

minimize losses in their supply chains.

16

Job Access:

Many projects can make a case for supporting increased labor force participation. For instance, all water,

ICT, electricity, and spatial development projects may increase employment opportunities in rural areas).

Most projects that do address this directly are either business development or labor interventions (public

works and skills and training).

Improving access to jobs for vulnerable populations is supported through a variety of interventions:

infrastructure (water, spatial development), public employment services, livelihood, and skills and

development. A good example is the Regional Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project

in the Horn of Africa (P152822), which provides vulnerable individuals and groups with needed technical,

business, market, and financial advisory services. Virtually all projects that target inclusive access to jobs

focus on women. Few projects, however, target youth. Those that do are primarily skills training

interventions such as the Skills Development Project (P145309) and the Regional African Centers of

Excellence (P149971).

Skills Development Project (P145309)

A good example of a well-designed jobs intervention in Uganda, the Skills Development Project

aims to enhance the capacity of institutions to deliver high quality, demand-driven training

programs in target sectors. The beneficiaries are people who work, or who will work, in the target

sectors: construction, manufacturing, and agriculture. Individual beneficiaries across the targeted

institutions include about 45,000 individual trainees and approximately 20,000 students at

Centers of Excellence’s (CoEs) and vocational institutions and 25,000 within enterprises.

The rates of return analysis show that acquiring Technical and Vocational Educational Training

(TVET) qualification improves future streams of income in Uganda. The analysis estimates that

returns for TVET are high, with the rate of return for a TVET qualification being 20.3 percent

higher than for upper secondary, 32.8 percent higher than lower secondary, and 69.6 percent

higher than primary in 2010.

17

3.3 Analysis of Pipeline Lending Operations

Figure 3.7. Percent of Projects and Project Value that Address Different Jobs Outcomes

The pipeline lending portfolio is small, containing only 4 projects. As displayed in Figure 3.7, the number

of projects and the value of portfolio investments are closely aligned. A large portion of the portfolio

focuses on firm performance and investment (81% of projects), worker productivity and earnings (100%),

livelihood outcomes (81%), labor force participation (81%), and access and opportunity for jobs (81%).

Few projects however promote job creation through new enterprises, the development of better working

conditions and benefits and the working of the labor market.

4. Gap Analysis

4.1 WBG Operations and Accordance to the CPF

As seen from the analysis above, most WBG projects are focused on identified key sectors for economic

growth for Uganda and the jobs agenda. Sectoral investments are highly concentrated in agriculture

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%A

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/Wo

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Intermediate More Jobs Better Jobs Inclusive Jobs

(%)

of

Tota

l Jo

bs

Po

rtfo

lio

All Interventions (Projects)

All Interventions (Value)

18

(included as spatial interventions) and infrastructure (transport, ICT, water), both by number and by value.

Furthermore, there is focus on business development and skills training, an important focus area

articulated in the CPF.

4.2 Gaps in World Bank Portfolio

In this section, we compare how the emphasis of the operational portfolio matches the assessment of

main jobs challenges facing Uganda.

The analysis in this paper up to now reveals clear gaps with respect to interventions and intended

outcomes, as seen in Figures 3.4, 3.5, and 3.6. None of the job interventions (Figure 3.5) focus on public

administration and governance, taxation and fiscal policy, business regulations, access to finance, energy/

mining, labor market regulation, wage subsidies or public works.

Furthermore, while the CPF and SCD mention the importance of developing a strong private sector, the

portfolio lacks support for new enterprise formation for job creation. The private sector in Uganda is

dominated by micro and small firms that benefit immensely from government support. The Job Diagnostic

found that workers are increasingly transitioning to smaller firms. As such portfolio interventions should

targeting young micro enterprises to help them grow and create jobs. In addition, while intermediate

outcomes are broadly well covered, additional support for human capital formation may be needed.

Jobs quality interventions in the portfolio (Figures 3.4 and 3.6) focus on productivity and earnings while

working conditions and benefits are insufficiently addressed. The second most evident gap regards

inclusion; while many of the interventions stress provisions for equal access of project benefits to women,

fostering inclusive labor force participation and labor market functioning are largely ignored in the

portfolio.

In terms of interventions to improve jobs access for specific targeted groups, women are most targeted

in the existing portfolio. By contrast, migrants (internal and, especially, international) lack targeted

support in the portfolio. While the CPF and SCD suggest that youth face some of the largest jobs

challenges, coverage of youth in the operational portfolio remains limited. According to the Job

Diagnostic, Uganda has the world’s fastest growing labor force, expected to double by 2030. In contrast

the demand for labor is falling, and unpaid family work in agriculture is increasing. Thus, efforts to support

youth labor market entrants through supply-side interventions (skills, ALMP, TVET, among them) need to

be enhanced in the portfolio.

19

Figure 3.8. Percent of Project that Target Specific Groups

5. Review of Project Ratings

The Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISR) progress ratings of the WB lending portfolio reveal

that 15 out of the 20 projects are rated either “Satisfactory” (6) or “Moderately Satisfactory” (9). These

include infrastructure projects on transportation, water, and energy, such as the North Eastern Road-

corridor Asset Management Project (NERAMP) and the Water Management and Development Project,

spatial development projects like the Albertine Region Sustainable Development Project (ARSDP) and

business development projects like the Competitiveness and Enterprise Development Project (CEDP).

Five projects are rated as “Moderately Unsatisfactory.” Three of these projects are energy infrastructure

projects: the Electricity Sector Development Project, the Uganda Grid Expansion and Reinforcement

Project (GERP), and the Uganda Energy for Rural Transformation III (ERT III) Project. The other two are

regional projects: the Regional Pastoral Livelihoods Resilience Project (RPLRP) and the Great Lakes Region

Trade Facilitation Project (GLTFP).

Project risk ratings for the assessed jobs-relevancy of active operations does not give an optimistic picture.

Only five of the 20 active jobs-relevant projects are rated “Moderate” (4) or “Low” (1). These projects are

either MSME business development, public employment services, or infrastructure (water, spatial

development) projects. Of the remaining portfolio, two projects are rated as “High” risk; the Agriculture

Cluster Development Project and the GLTFP. The remaining 13 (68 percent of the active jobs-relevant

portfolio) are rated with substantial risk, which include infrastructure projects (energy, water, road and

spatial development, agriculture), MSME business development projects, and skills training projects.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Youth Gender Bottom 40/ Poor Fragile

% o

f P

roje

cts

20

6. Review of Quality of Jobs Indicators Used by Projects

Most jobs indicators are well-articulated in project documents. Intermediate outcomes such as access to

markets and firm performance are recognized through indicators such as increased connectivity,

improved infrastructure facilities, and reduced transport costs and time (for example, the North Eastern

Road-corridor Asset Management Project (P125590)). Outcomes relating to human capital, productivity,

and access to jobs use indicators such as percent of training graduates and percent of female intakes in

targeted training programs. Most agriculture projects, including irrigation and water interventions, such

as the Agriculture Cluster Development Project (P145037) measure jobs quality outcomes in terms of

productivity and income gains.

Roughly half of active jobs portfolio projects contain jobs indicators in project documents. Regional

projects represent a significant amount of these as almost all feature robust jobs indicators. For example,

the Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project in the Horn of Africa (DRDIP HOA) (P152822)

quantifies the number of beneficiaries of economic development activities that report an increase in

income (disaggregated by type of service, gender, and target group). Another example includes the Great

Lakes Trade Facilitation Project (P151083), which looks at incidence of harassment among small-scale

traders including female traders.

Interventions that do not quantify potential jobs impacts are predominately infrastructure projects

(water, electricity, and roads). Many of these projects tend to track intermediate indicators such as

kilometers of road built, transmission lines constructed, and number of irrigation channels created.

Assessments of additional economic opportunities, employment, and income gains, however, are largely

ignored. For instance, while projects like the Integrated Water Management and Development Project

(P163782), and the Second Kampala Institutional and Infrastructure Development Project (KIIDP-2)

(P133590), acknowledge creation of additional economic activities and employment opportunities in

project documents, they fail to include relevant indicators to measure this impact.

7. Recommendations

Based on the analysis presented above, four important recommendations emerge for strengthening the

jobs impact of the Bank’s program in Uganda, as follows:

Focus more on youth employment interventions. Only a small portion of the jobs portfolio in Uganda

focuses on youth employment led interventions. Uganda has one of the world’s youngest populations

with almost half of its people under the age of 15. There is a shortage of specific skills among the

graduates, especially in the hi-tech services such as finance, telecommunication and engineering and has

led to mismatch in the demand for jobs and quality of supply. The CPF mentions the need to equip

Uganda’s young and fast-growing population with the required skills to make a better living in the rural

sector or enter the job market in urban areas. Thus, efforts to support youth labor market entrants

21

through supply side interventions (skills, ALMP, TVET etc.) needs to be enhanced in the portfolio. The

African Centers of Excellence project provides a strong example of an integrated youth project that forms

partnerships and collaborations with training institutions and the private sector.

Focus more on value chain development to support jobs. The CPF highlights the need to link farms to

markets through value chain development. There needs to be more of a concerted effort to catalyze

investments in agriculture, move up the value chain to agro-processing, and boost agricultural exports.

Value-chain / productive alliance interventions designed to improve the quality of jobs in informal sector

agriculture by linking them to larger productive and market systems (including downstream processing

and packaging) should be a high priority.

Focus more on stimulating private sector growth through regulatory policies that provide better access

to finance and business development. Relatively few interventions address this area. The CPF highlights

the need to encourage private investments for more and better jobs, labor market readiness and access

to finance for MSMEs. The cost of finance is high, and few firms have bank loan/line of credit due to high

cost and huge collateral requirements.

Systematize the metrics in jobs-relevant operations, including direct, indirect and induced jobs. The

recently finalized Jobs M&E Toolkit and note on the Economic Analysis of Jobs Investment Projects will

serve as useful points of departure for this process. At present, many jobs-relevant projects in the Uganda

portfolio have weak metrics on jobs impacts, often not going beyond vague indications of the number of

beneficiaries. Task teams working on the preparation of jobs-relevant projects should be encouraged to

make a more careful estimation of the likely jobs impacts, based on the number of jobs and the estimated

income growth that they create (“jobs-linked externalities”). This will allow the CMU to make well-

grounded judgements about the relative merits of different jobs-relevant interventions when deciding

how to prioritize the lending portfolio. Many of the jobs-relevant projects supported by the Bank will have

their main impact through the indirect jobs they create (e.g. upstream jobs for primary producers in

agricultural in value chains); or through the induced jobs that are made possible by infrastructure projects.

Since infrastructure projects are such a large part of the portfolio, systematic analysis of the likely induced

jobs effects (those caused through the economic activities made possible due to improved roads and

power and water systems). Incorporating estimations of those effects – and the corresponding rates of

return, given the level of the proposed investment - is crucial to consistency in project selection choices

in the portfolio planning process.

8. Annexes

Annex A – Jobs Conceptual Framework

Outcomes→

Interventions ↓

Access to /

working of

product markets

Firm

performance/

investment

Human

Capital

Job creation

(by

employers)

Job creation

(by new

enterprises)

Job creation

(by

entrepreneurs

/ self-

employed)

Worker

productivity

Working

conditions

and benefits

Earnings/

livelihoods

Labor force

participation

Working of

labor market

Access and

Opportunity

for Jobs

Public administration

and governance

Taxation / Fiscal Policy

Trade & Investment

Policy

Business regulations

Access to Finance

MSME/ Entrepreneurship

Transport/ Logistics

ICT

Energy/ Mining

Irrigation/water

Spatial development

Labor Regulations

Public employment

services

Wage subsidies

Public works

Livelihoods /CDD

Skills and training

Ma

cro

an

d r

egu

lato

ry

po

licie

s

Sect

ora

l an

d R

egi

on

al

po

licie

sLa

bo

r p

olic

ies

Re

spo

nse

to

co

un

try

job

s ch

alle

nge

s

Intermediate Outcomes Job Creation Job Quality Job Access

The framework allows for project components to be classified into relevant interventions (vertical axis) and outcomes (horizontal axis). Values are aggregated across outcomes to draw conclusions. Project components can be classified into multiple interventions and outcomes to accurately capture its impact.

Annex B – Definitions Used in The Jobs Conceptual Framework

Table B.1 Definitions of Job Interventions in the JCF

Jobs Intervention Definition

Macro and regulatory policies

Public

Administration and

Governance

Interventions that aim to improve public sector management with a jobs lens (i.e. taking

into account the development payoffs from jobs), including public administration reform

and civil service reform (payment and terms and conditions); inclusive growth projects

that support critical reforms; institutional reform (federal level); privatization of state-

owned enterprises; statistical strengthening; public procurement reform; public sector

transparency, etc. Government support addressing (a) provision of public goods; (b)

transactional services (with private sector / citizens); (c) regulation of the private sector

and the government itself.

Keywords: Informal Economy; Long-Term Unemployment; Partial Unemployment; Under

Employment; Full Employment

Taxation/ Fiscal

Policy

Taxation (of property, trade, investment, income), investment subsidies, payroll taxes, as

well as taxation in the form of tariffs (customs/trade). Interventions include general

governance reforms such as fiscal deficit reduction, public financial management, overall

tax reforms, disinvestment etc. and tax wedges (ratio between the amount of taxes paid

by an average single worker and the corresponding total labor cost for the employer) and

incentives for employment.

(Note: While monetary policy and rate of exchange/ interest are important for private

sector growth, they are normally not addressed through WBG jobs interventions and

therefore are not included.)

Trade/ Investment

Policy

Trade interventions include macroeconomic reforms in support of private sector

development such as removing overall regulatory barriers, improving competition

policies, trade liberalization, trade integration, improving trade competitiveness,

developing, and strengthening financial markets etc.

Keywords: Industrial Policies; Industrial Relations; Trade and Employment

(Note: See “Business regulations” below for specific policies related to investment

climate for firms)

Business

Regulations

Part of the regulatory environment, interventions aimed at supporting and simplifying

transactional services between government and private sector; business regulation for

private sector; addressing competitiveness constraints (that are horizontal in nature,

including regulations and barriers to trade, investment, innovation, technology, and

entrepreneurship policies), certification and standards systems.

Interventions to stimulate investment, firm entry, and firm growth, such as business

registration/E-services; export development; taxation sector reforms; customs; safety

regulations; anti-trust laws; contract law etc., Laws on Access to Property/property

rights, patent, business dispute regulations and litigation, etc.

Sectoral and regional policies

Access to Finance Interventions aimed at increasing access to finance and related support for firms,

individuals, communities, or financial institutions such as micro-credit programs

/microfinance, institutional finance, infrastructure finance, secured transactions,

24

financial training, warehouse financing etc. May also include Financial services (Credit

and leasing, Savings Insurance) or reform of the financial sector/ banking reforms.

Often targeted to micro-enterprises, SMEs, entrepreneurs, and/or financial inclusion

projects targeting vulnerable groups (e.g. women, youth, and bottom 40% of

population).

MSME/

Entrepreneurship

Interventions aimed at fostering firm level entrepreneurship; self-employment and small-

scale entrepreneurship; business incubation services; SME upgrading; promoting

competitiveness through capacity building and business training; business-development

services; promotion of private sector development. May include support for innovation,

R&D etc.; microenterprise support including financial literacy and training; networking;

enterprise development; support to household enterprises; support for improved

linkages to markets, entry into farming or exit into the broader rural economy; small

scale industrial solutions such as processing and storage infrastructure.

Transport/ Logistics Operations targeting access to transportation services, including urban transport &

mobility; rural roads and feeder roads; developing corridors; rail and freight; establishing

ports and airports; community projects for infrastructure maintenance; village

infrastructure to provide greater access to markets and increase mobility, local, national,

or regional connectivity.

ICT Operations targeting investments in Information and communication technology (ICT),

such as broadband access, backbone development and internet services; mobile

technology or services; increase in density of mobile network penetration. (Note: Not

addressing effects on ICT and computerization on jobs.)

Energy/ Mining Operations aimed at improving energy access or mining (Electric power generation and

distribution, integrated utilities; clear energy; oil, gas, and mining, including operations

that aim at creating a number of jobs directly in the power/mining sector; provide an

infrastructure for growth of other sectors (such as agriculture, manufacturing and retail

downstream); and/or operations that aim to enhance productivity in various service

sectors such as health, education and ICT (information and communication technology),

to support firm growth and productivity.

Irrigation/ Water Operations providing increased access to irrigation systems aimed at improved

agricultural production and farm income, rural investment, and water services; as well as

water supply for manufacturing and industry.

Spatial

Development

Interventions with specific aim to strengthen spatial connectivity and agglomeration

effects for productivity and growth, as well as the creation, improvement, and

inclusiveness of jobs. Includes operations for: (i) urban development, (ii) special

economic zones (SEZs; i.e. demarcated geographic areas within a country’s boundaries

where the rules of business are different from those that prevail in the national

territory), (iii) programs targeting the bottom 40% of the population and slum dwellers in

megacities; (iv) Growth Poles and corridors; (v) secondary cities (urban jurisdictions

performing vital governance, logistical and production functions at a sub-national level

within a system of cities in a country); and (vi) Value Chains. May also include tourism

development; regional integration; competitive cities projects and/or urban upgrade

projects; agricultural development and agro-industry.

Keywords: Urban Job Creation; Urbanization

25

(Note: Will often also relate to other types of interventions, such as infrastructure,

business regulations, entrepreneurship

Labor Policies

Labor Regulations Part of the regulatory environment, interventions aimed at improving the functioning of

Labor Markets and/or labor institutions; from an employer and employee perspective,

including effectiveness of the labor policy and reform and/or labor regulations; activation

policies; building statistical capacity (related to labor statistics) or labor market

information systems; labor market assessments. Includes employment protection

legislation (EPL) dealing with hiring or termination, including unemployment benefits and

severance pay and related procedures, strengthening work place standards, worker

protection and rights, and unionization. Dissemination of workplace standards and

strengthening labor inspection.

Public Employment

Services

Interventions providing employment assistance or supporting or establishing entities

providing services to match job seekers with job opportunities or to plan and execute

labor market policies, including providing information about the labor market; assisting

with job search and providing placement services or counseling; administering

unemployment insurance benefits; administering a variety of labor programs.

Keywords: Employment Agencies; National Employment Service, Public Employment

Services; Private Employment Agencies market programs. Services can be provided by

government and/or by private employment agencies

Wage Subsidies Interventions supporting or providing direct transfers to employers or reductions in their

taxes or social contributions to encourage them to hire new workers or to keep

employees who might otherwise be laid off. Often targeted to particular groups, such as

youth. Includes cash transfers; jobs, cash-for-work, cash, and in-kind transfers;

conditional or unconditional cash transfers; in-kind social transfer, enhancing matching in

the labor market; matching grants; and voucher programs. (WDR 2013)

Keywords: Cash Transfer; Income Support; Income Transfers

Public Works Interventions that support employment programs (short-term) or offer short-term

employment for wages or food. Includes projects which create/support a large number

of jobs or are labor intensive. Often linked to infrastructure or community development;

and targeted to vulnerable groups, e.g. youth, informal sector, reintegration.

Livelihoods/ CDD Interventions promoting sustainable livelihoods, rural livelihoods, viable alternative

livelihoods; economic diversification; developing livelihood incentives (may be related to

natural resources); linking enterprises and livelihoods alternatives. Includes operations

for community employment (urban, rural); community-driven development (CDD); rural

livelihoods; fisheries and watershed management; or build linkages to agricultural supply

chains. Includes activities of producer organizations such as pricing policy, improvement

of agricultural production practices, and local processing and marketing of produce;

and/or promoting cooperatives to better link to buyers, access and share market

knowledge, and strengthen producers’ bargaining.

Skills and Training Interventions aimed at enhancing capabilities of target beneficiaries to increase

employability and employment opportunities, such as vocational training, on the job

training and support for the school to work transition. Includes skills development or

upgrading for youth, workforce enhancement, subject specific training (e.g. machine

operation, financial literacy, accounting) etc. Skills development may be sector-specific

26

(to train, hire and retain health care workers; training farmers to improve farm

productivity, etc.); and include better access to and use of specific knowledge /

technologies.

Keywords: Employability; Job Skills/ Job Training; Low-Skilled; Quality Training;

Skills Development/ Skills Upgrading; Vocational Skill/ Vocational Training

Table B.2. Definitions of Jobs Outcomes in the JCF

Jobs Outcome Definition

Intermediate Outcomes

Access to /

Working of

product market

Outcomes measuring the creation or improvement in access to markets for goods and

services (local, domestic, international) by firms, small producers, MSMEs and self-

employed. Access can be physical (transportation or logistics for access to markets etc.);

virtual (ICT services connecting to markets); or related to trade openness and legal

framework (reflecting government's economic policies regarding import substitution and

free competition; conditions; tariff and non-tariff measures). Does not refer to land

market or labor market. Generally, relates to potentially increasing labor demand.

Firm

performance/

Investment

Outcomes measuring firm performance (e.g. sales, profits); productivity (i.e. the amount

of output generated with a given amount of inputs); and competitiveness, from macro

and micro economic interventions (from business environment to access to productive

services and infrastructure assets.). Also covers increased investment by companies.

Generally, relates to potentially increasing labor demand, and higher productivity of jobs.

Human Capital Outcomes measuring the results of capacity building, skills development and training to

increase employability. May include cognitive skills, social skills and technical skills.

Generally, relates to potentially enhancing labor supply.

Job Creation

Job creation by

employers

Outcomes relating to creation of more direct, indirect, and/or inclusive jobs* for project

target beneficiaries, whether short or long term.

Keywords: Employment Opportunities; Job Creation; More Jobs; Unemployment; Job Loss

*Note: Jobs = “activities that generate income, monetary or in kind, without violating

human rights” (WDR 2013)

Job Creation by

New Enterprises

Outcomes measuring the creation of new firms, resulting in jobs, often from interventions

making it easier for business to register or access finance such as decrease in time taken

to register a business, simpler tax regulations, automating business processes etc.

Job Creation by

Entrepreneurs/

Self-employed

Outcomes related to increases in entrepreneurs* and self-employed and their businesses,

some of which may also recruit workers.

Keywords: Non-Farm Enterprises; Non-Labor Income; Self Employed/ Employment

*Note: Entrepreneurship: It is the combination of innovative capacity to put new ideas

into effect with managerial capacity to increase a firm’s efficiency within the limits of

known technology. (WDR 2013)

Job Quality

Worker

Productivity

Outcomes related to labor productivity by improving the ability of beneficiaries to

perform better in labor market and improving their productivity levels, often through

capacity building.

27

Keywords: Better Jobs; Improve Employability; Improved Labor Outcome; Informal(ity);

Productivity/ Labor Productivity; Non-Regular Workers

Working

conditions and

benefits

Outcomes addressing work place concerns of two dimensions: physical working

conditions (health and safety at work, basic / core labor standards), and social insurance/

protection (e.g. better workplace laws, wages, social pension, better working hours

unemployment insurance, collective bargaining, etc.)

Keywords: Hiring and Firing; Improving Working Conditions; Low-Wage; Minimum Wage;

Negotiated Wage Rates; Labor Benefits; Overtime Pay; Pension Systems; Protect Workers;

Rights At Work; Social Protection/ Social Security; Safety Nets; Collective Bargaining

Earnings/

livelihoods

Outcomes related to improved earnings, income or savings, often through support to self-

employment; income support opportunities and income diversification, community driven

development (CDD) projects, temporary jobs, etc. Also related to results of ALMPs.

Keywords: Good Jobs; Growing Employment; Labor Income; Wage; Real Wages; Fixed-

Term Contracts

Job Access

Labor Force

Participation

Outcomes measuring the extent to which the population is economically active, either

employed or are actively looking for work. Generally, relates to potentially enhancing

labor supply.

Keywords: Labor Demand; Labor Supply

Working of Labor

Market

Outcomes measuring the functioning of the labor market in balancing suppliers of labor

services (workers), the demands of labor services (employers), taking account of wages,

employment, and income, often through labor market policies to address market

distortions. Also linked to worker mobility, facilitating reallocation of labor to efficient

uses, within countries and across borders, for example by reduced transportation costs.

Generally, relates to potentially better matching of labor supply and demand.

Access to and

Opportunity for

Jobs

Outcomes measuring access to employment opportunity, for those lacking opportunity

such as people working fewer than 20 hours a week, the unemployed, and those who

want to work, and traditionally disadvantaged groups in the labor market (women, youth,

bottom 40 percent, people with disabilities, ethnicity, elderly, etc.) and regionally

disadvantaged groups (people in fragile and conflicted situations and in lagging regions).

28

Annex C – Project Information/ Content in Relation to Jobs

Table C1 Active Lending Operations

Project ID Project Name Project Value Jobs Information/ Content

P117876 Uganda Support to Municipal Infrastructure Development Program

150,000,000 No Jobs Content

P119737 Electricity Sector Development Project

120,000,000

“The primary benefits that were monetized include reductions in unmet demand on the part of existing customers in the Masaka service area, increased capacity to meet existing and future demand in the region, incremental sales to export markets in Rwanda and Tanzania, reductions in system transmission losses, and savings in repair and maintenance costs of the Kawanda-Masaka transmission link…. Apart from the monetized benefits, the Project will also contribute to improvements in the socio-economic and environmental well-being of the region. Access to electricity can benefit local populations through improved health care, education, and personal security, as well as employment and other income earning opportunities.” (PAD)

P123204 Water Management and Development Project

135,000,000 No Jobs Content

P125590 North Eastern Road-corridor Asset Management Project

243,800,000

“The project will also have impact on poverty reduction and improving the livelihood of the poor along the project area, as it will help increase productivity and farm gate prices for agricultural products.” (PAD) “…the project will provide income generating employment opportunities during the construction and maintenance period.” (PAD)

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P130471 Competitiveness and Enterprise Development Project

100,000,000

“The project will specifically provide support for labor force development in tourism. This will open opportunities for tourism workers to engage in the many entrepreneurial activities the industry has to offer. Nearly 600,000 landowning households especially in rural areas will benefit from the registration of 900,000 plots of their land, with associated reduction in land disputes that are estimated to reduce agricultural productivity by about 10 percent.” (PAD) “The Project includes investments to increase tourism awareness and capacity, improve business environment and land administration, and provide business development services to support competitiveness, economic diversification, and job creation.” (PAD) “An economic analysis based on eliminating productivity losses of 10 percent by reducing land disputes and increasing land tenure security through registration of communal and individually owned lands in rural areas yields an economic rate of return (ERR) of 22 percent.” (PAD) “The total cost incurred by businesses in complying with licensing requirements was estimated at approximately US$290 million, representing 3.49 percent of GDP, and the overall impact of licensing alone is anticipated to generate private sector cost savings of up to 25 percent.” (PAD)

P133305 Uganda Grid Expansion and Reinforcement Project (GERP)

100,000,000

“Improved electricity availability may also spur development of productive uses of electricity to generate income and jobs. The number of beneficiaries is conservatively quantified as the populations of Gulu, Nebbi and Arua districts – approximately 1.6 million people.” (PAD) “Subcomponent C-2: Sector Skill Assessment. This subcomponent will assess the current situation and gaps of government power sector agencies with regard to the adequate technical skills to support operational and financial sustainability of the sector. The assessment will also propose recommendations to enhance the skills of current and new staff with the support of state-of-art tools.” (PAD) “Subcomponent C-3: Sector Skill Strengthening Program. This subcomponent will finance the recommendations of the sector skills assessment under Subcomponent C-2. This will include the curriculum development/revision, in-house training, tools and equipment, and so on.” (PAD)

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P133312 Uganda Energy for Rural Transformation III

135,000,000 No Jobs Content

P133590

Second Kampala Institutional and Infrastructure Development Project

175,000,000

Very little Jobs Content “A better urban transport system is essential to reduce congestion and improve connectivity, facilitate the movement of people, move products to markets, and stimulate job creation.” (PAD)

P145037 Agriculture Cluster Development Project

150,000,000

“Successful implementation of the project will raise farm and agribusiness incomes.” (PAD) “Participating farm households will benefit from greater efficiency, larger volumes of on-farm production, and more favorable prices for inputs as well as for marketed production.” (PAD) “In terms of the likely direct impact of ACDP, conservative estimates suggest that by reaching 450,000 farm households (approximately 25% of all farm households in the targeted districts) with such support, sales of inputs will experience an incremental increase of over US$12 million in each cluster over the six years of ACDP.” (PAD) “It is further estimated that the increase in production spurred by the use of subsidized inputs (i.e., e-Vouchers) under the program will stimulate an incremental rise in farm output in project areas valued at US$300 million over the life of the project. This will have a significant effect on farm incomes – an increase of over US$650 per participating farm household over the period of its participation in the project. This is enough to raise household income by 20 percent on average over that period.” (PAD) “Private agribusiness firms will benefit through greater volume and lower transaction costs.” (PAD)

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P145101 Albertine Region Sustainable Development Project

145,000,000

“Upgrading the Kyenjojo-Kigumba road will improve access to markets, a reduction in public transport costs and time savings, road safety, access to social services and the potential for induced development that will boost local economies.” (PAD) “It is expected that during construction, local people will benefit from employment opportunities working on the road sites or various economic activities such as support services. Benefits will accrue to improved international connections to the north and south.” (PAD) “Benefits from this component are expected to provide better access to local and regional markets, particularly for farmers and fisherman which are the main livelihoods in the region. The construction and maintenance work will also provide income generating jobs to the local people. The upgrading of economic infrastructure and district roads could play a catalytic role in improving livelihoods and reducing poverty of the local people, especially when linked to improved regional access (Component 1).” (PAD)

P145309 Skills Development Project

100,000,000

“Individual beneficiaries will equal approximately 45,000 trainees across the targeted institutions during the life of the project who will gain from a more market relevant menu of programs. This includes approximately 20,000 students at the CoEs and vocational institutions and 25,000 within enterprises.” (PAD) “Investment in technical and vocational skills at the post-secondary level clearly pays off in terms of future income streams in Uganda. The rates of return analysis also support the fact that acquiring TVET qualifications leads to improved future streams of income. Using a Mincerian regression based on the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) for 2005 and 2010 for year and level of schooling, it is estimated that each additional year of schooling results in a return of 12.2 percent in 2010 compared to 11.2 percent in 2005. In terms of levels of education, returns for TVET are high with the rate of return for a TVET qualification being 20.3 percent higher than for upper secondary, 32.8 percent higher than lower secondary and 69.6 percent higher than primary in 2010.” (PAD)

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P147258 Northern Uganda Business Support Program

2,860,000

“The project development objective is expected to be achieved by providing business training, small grants, and follow-up business advisory services to existing and new CIGs.” (PAD) “The grant was designed to benefit 120 existing and 240 new CIGs. The members of these CIGs complete training in management and technical skills development and produce business plans. The existing CIGs to benefit from this pilot initiative are being selected from those supported by the NUSAF 2 Project, while the new CIGs are being formed through a participatory process that was previously used by NUSAF 2 in the formation of the existing CIGs. The project is envisaged to have 4,680 direct beneficiaries within the 360 CIGs and ensuring that at least 50 percent of members of the new CIGs are women (the existing CIGs consist of more than 50 percent women).” (PAD)

P149965 Third Northern Uganda Social Action Fund (NUSAF 3)

130,000,000

“The LIPW subcomponent will provide beneficiaries from poor and vulnerable households with a seasonal transfer in return for their participation in LIPW that will enable them to sustain and increase their assets and smooth their consumption during lean seasons. This sub-component will also result in the creation of physical assets of value to the local communities. This component will finance: (i) the wages/transfers for the beneficiaries participating in the public works activities; (ii) the equipment, materials, and semi-skilled labor and other inputs necessary to implement the selected LIPW up to the required quality; and (iii) capacity building costs such as the hiring of community facilitators, training and planning workshops.” (PAD) “Consequently, 499,000 households (2,495,000 people) will directly benefit from the LIPW component.” (PAD) “The LIPW component takes into account the special needs of women and requires that at least 40 percent of LIPW participants are women.” (PAD)

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P149966 Integrated Water Management and Development Project

280,000,000

“Local communities will also benefit from catchment management activities focused on building capacity for modern land use management and improved agroforestry farming practices.” (PAD) “Labor influx. The proposed project will apply upmost due diligence in the management and monitoring of labor influx to minimize any potential GBV in Project areas. The amount of labor influx will vary by Project components as in some areas labor influx will be minimal given that the type of work and technology could be supplied by local workforce, while in other areas works might involve labor from outside of project areas. The ESMF includes procedures, institutional responsibilities, and mitigation measures for screening, assessing, and managing issues related to labor influx that will be applied to all site-specific ESIAs. Potential preventive measures include (a) sourcing local workforce as much as possible, provided skill sets are met; (b) actively engaging the communities, especially vulnerable groups on the potential arrival of external workers, social conducts and behaviors, and grievance redress mechanisms; (c) including particular conditions in works contract, such as a code of conduct outlining contractor’s responsibilities on workplace culture, labor influx management plan, and worker’s camp management plan; (d) conducting mandatory training for all employees on legal conduct in local communities and legal consequences for non-compliance and on ethical behavior (for example, not to engage in relationships with underage girls and married women) as well as on issues relating to sexual exploitation and abuse, HIV/AIDS, and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs); (e) maximizing the distance of the camp sites from the communities and providing services and entertainments within the camps; (f) providing opportunities for workers to regularly return to their families; (g) strengthening IAs’ capacity on labor influx management; and (h) liaising with Ministry of Gender on community sensitization initiatives and trainings.” (PAD)

P149967 R. East Africa Public Health Laboratory Networking Project

10,100,000

“Component #2-Joint Training and Capacity Building aims to support training and capacity building for laboratory personnel, in order to increase the pool of experts in the sub-region and to improve the effectiveness of public health laboratories.” (PAD) “The project will support fellowships in field epidemiology through the flagship Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program (FELTP). By project completion over 2000 laboratory specialists will have received training and a professional cadre of laboratory managers will be established in the sub region.” (PAD)

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P149968 R. Regional Pastoral Livelihoods Resilience Project

40,000,000

“Component 2: Market Access and Trade (US$26.9 million). This component aims at improving the market access of the agro-pastoralists and pastoralists to the intra-regional and international markets of livestock and livestock products.” (PAD) “Sub-component 2.1 - Market Support Infrastructure and Information System. The component will integrate the national livestock marketing information systems (LMIS) with the regional-level system, provide appropriate equipment (hard- and software), and train stakeholders on interpreting and using information from the system.” (PAD) “Sub-component 2.2 - Livestock Value-Chain Support and Improving Livestock Mobility and Trade. RPLRP will support research on and develop selected livestock-related cross border value chains, specifically in arid and semi-arid areas. On capacity building, pastoralists and other actors (exporters, abattoirs) will be trained on cooperative management models, and marketing.” (PAD) Lots more (check component section of PAD)

P149969

R. Regional Communications Infrastructure Program Phase 5 - Uganda Project

75,000,000

“ICT sector firms will benefit from an improved legal and regulatory environment and open access to NBI. Within the Government, nearly all ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) will benefit from improved quality and lower cost of connectivity, improved efficiency of day-to-day operations through use of electronic platforms and communications, cost savings by leveraging shared infrastructure for data storage and service delivery, and enhanced ICT skills through training programs.” (PAD) “Component 1: Conducive enabling environment would translate into increased sector investment and competitiveness and improved access to and quality of ICT services for citizens, businesses and government. This in turn would enable job creation and improved productivity and service delivery across all sectors, both public and private.” (PAD) “The component will also support carrying out a program of activities designed to build the capacity of MICT and NITA-U including activities such as: (i) conducting an ICT skills gap assessment for Government and development of a program to address deficiencies; (ii) supporting the execution of the ICT skills development program including training and certification for officials in NITAU, MICT, and PPDA.” (PAD) “Economic analysis: Productivity income increase through the use of mobile phones in the agriculture sector alone is expected to reach 0.09 percent of GDP over ten years.” (PAD)

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P149970 R. Great Lakes Trade Facilitation Project

10,100,000

“Subcomponent 1.1 Border Infrastructure. The designs will seek to improve security of small scale traders, particularly through separate or demarcated lanes for safe passage of pedestrian traffic, lighting and cameras, and providing warehousing so traders can safely store their goods and minimize losses in their supply chains…” (PAD) “The developmental impacts of trade are high in poor borderland areas. The specific characteristics of borders in the Great Lakes, with large numbers of small-scale traders providing crucial income for vulnerable households, will further magnify the economic benefits from facilitating trade. A simple economic analysis using available data on prices suggests that the economic benefits of this project to poor households could be substantial.” (PAD) “Further, increased flows of trade across borders as a result of lower prices and increased demand would likely raise returns to traders and ultimately producers of tradable goods and services and increase jobs related to cross-border trade.” (PAD)

P149971 R. African Centers of Excellence

24,000,000

“The proposed ACEs are expected to address specific development challenges facing the region through graduate training (Master’s, PhD, and short-term courses) and applied research in the form of partnerships and collaborations with other institutions and the private sector.” (PAD) “2/5 Centers of Excellence will provide training in Industry (ICT, railway, energy), Agriculture (agribusiness development and management, value chain, climate smart).” (PAD) “The ACE's (c) launch more than 300 research collaborations with private sector and other institutions.” (PAD) “Higher education produces wage premium for individuals and generates knowledge creation. Investments in higher education also plays an important role in alleviating poverty and promoting shared prosperity by facilitating social mobility through employment opportunities and increased earnings. Empirical research shows that schooling increases individual labor productivity and earning potential. The acquisition of higher education is associated with higher rates of returns as measured by the estimated proportional increase of earning from an additional year of schooling.” (PAD)

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P149972

R. Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project in the Horn of Africa

50,000,000

“Synergies in Uganda include livelihoods and infrastructure investments, market linkages, and environmental amelioration with the Northern Uganda Social Action Fund–III.” (PAD) “Component 3 will support: (i) identifying beneficiaries and traditional and nontraditional livelihoods; (ii) forming community livelihood groups and support-group management activities; and (iii) providing individuals and groups with needed technical, business, market, and financial advisory services.” (PAD)

Table C2 Pipeline Lending Operations

Project ID Project Name Project Value Jobs Information/ Content

P163836 Uganda Irrigation Modernization Project

195,000,000

“The development objectives of the project are to develop irrigation and drainage infrastructure and services, and institutional capacity for irrigated agricultural production in the project areas.” (PID) “The proposed project will adopt a programmatic approach, based on the strategic vision that sustainable irrigation infrastructure operation and services depend upon helping farmers turn agriculture into a profitable business.” (PID)

P164101 Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project

150,000,000

“Component 3: The component supports the development and expansion of traditional and non-traditional livelihoods of the beneficiary households to build productive assets and incomes.” “There are 2 subcomponents, subcomponent 3.1: Support to Traditional and Non-Traditional Livelihoods and subcomponent 3.2: Capacity Building of Community Organizations for Livelihoods. The component will support (i) identification of beneficiaries and the traditional and non-traditional livelihoods to support; (ii) form community livelihoods groups and support group management activities; and (iii) provide individuals and groups necessary technical, business, market and financial advisory services.” (PID)

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P165776 Second Competitive and Enterprise Development Project

150,000,000

“Component 2 SME Support - Enhance firm-level productivity and innovation through technology and operational upgrading and provision of Business Development Services (BDS); Enhance provision of serviced land and support in industrial parks, including development of common facility centers; Support access to finance for bankable projects through a SME finance line of credit and Enhance regional and international market linkages through a market development program in conjunction with the IFC.” (Aide Memoire) “Value Chain Development in Agribusiness - Support for development/upgrading of local processing facilities, upgrading and expanding industrial processing plants, standards and grain storage and Support to the Uganda Warehouse Receipt Systems Authority (UWRSA) to carry out reviews, Inspections and Licensing of the facilities under the Warehousing Receipt System and carry out other regulatory functions.” (Aide Memoire) “Component 3 Enhance Tourism Product Planning, Packaging and Promotion - Tourism promotion and marketing, including regional and global branding; Infrastructure development including the construction of a ferry landing site at Paraa, Murchison falls NP, construction of park entrance gates and road construction; Capacity building of Uganda Wildlife Education Center and the Uganda Wildlife Tourism Training Institute; Develop Tourism products in conservation - canopy walk in Kibale NP, scenic drives in Queen Elizabeth NP and birding and Construction of 13 gates in the National Parks.” (Aide Memoire)

P166685 Uganda Electricity Access Scale-up Project (EASP)

300,000,000

“Results Area 2: Increased access to off-grid technologies. The proposed Program will support a market-based approach by involving private sector to provide electricity services through quality-certified solar systems to households, commercial enterprises, public institutions, etc. Solar companies are offering innovative schemes to help make solar systems more affordable.” (Concept Note) “Additional economic benefits from electrification are commonly recognized and yet difficult to quantify. These include increased income generating activities for commercial, industrial, and agricultural processing.” (Concept Note)

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