4449 Volume 2 The World Bank Washington, D.C. May 1983 F-.- N py Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
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4449Volume 2
The World BankWashington, D.C.
May 1983
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Contents
Key iv
Introduction 1
Maps 3
Table 1. Basic indicators 8
Population Q Area 0 GNP per capita 0 Inflation 0 Adult literacy0 Life expectancy
Table 2. Growth of production 10
GDP 0 Agriculture 0 Industry 0 Manufacturing 0 Services
Table 3. Structure of production 12
GDP 0 Agriculture 0 Industry a Manufacturing 0 Services
Table 4. Growth of consumption and investment 14
Public consumption El Private consumption 0 Gross domesticinvestment
Table 5. Structure of demand 16
Public consumption 0 Private consumption 0 Gross domesticinvestment o Gross domestic saving 0 Exports of goods andnonfactor services 0 Resource balance
Table 6. Agriculture and food 18
Value added 0 Cereal imports 0 Food aid 0 Fertilizer consumption0 Food production per capita
Table 7. Industrialization 20
Share of value added in food and agriculture a in textiles andclothing 0 in machinery and transport equipment 0 in chemicals a inother manufacturing 0 Value added in manufacturing
Table 8. Commercial energy 22
Growth of energy production 0 Growth of energy consumptiono Energy consumption per capita 0 Energy imports as percentage ofmerchandise exports
Table 9. Growth of merchandise trade 24
Export values 0 Import values C Growth of exports 0 Growth ofimports 0 Terms of trade
Table 10. Structure of merchandise exports 26
Fuels, minerals, and metals o Other primary commodities u Textilesand clothing ra Machinery and transport equipment o Othermanufactures
Table 11. Structure of merchandise imports 28
Food o Fuels o Other primary commodities El Machinery andtransport equipment o Other manufactures
Table 12. Origin and destination of merchandise exports 30
Industrial market economies 0 East European nonmarket economieso High-income oil exporters o Developing economies
Table 13. Origin and destination of manufactured exports 32
Industrial market economies o East European nonmarket economiesol High-income oil exporters o Developing economies o Value ofmanufactured exports
Table 14. Balance of payments and reserves 34
Current account balance EJ Receipts of workers' remittances El Netdirect private investment o Gross international reserves E m monthsof import coverage
Table 15. Flow of public and publicly guaranteed external capital 36
Gross inflow of public and publicly guaranteed medium- and long-term loans E Repayment of principal E Net inflow of public andpublicly guaranteed medium- and long-term loans
Table 16. External public debt and debt service ratios 38
External public debt outstanding and disbursed E as percentage ofGNP o Interest payments on external public and publiclyguaranteed debt E Debt service as percentage of GNP
Table 17. Terms of public borrowing 40
Commitments o Average interest rate E Average maturity o Averagegrace penod
Table 18. Official development assistance from OECD and OPEC members 42
Amount in dollars E as percentage of donor GNP E in nationalcurrencies E Net bilateral flow to low-income countries
Table 19. Population growth, past and projected, and hypothetical stationary population 44
Past growth of population El Projected population E Hypotheticalsize of stationary population E Assumed year of reaching netreproduction rate of 1 E Year of reaching stationary population
Table 20. Demographic and fertility-related indicators 46
Crude birth rate E Crude death rate o Total fertility rateE Percentage of married women using contraceptives
Table 21. Labor force 48
Population of working age o Labor force in agriculture o in industryo in services 0 Growth of labor force, past and projected
Table 22. Urbanization 50
Urban population as percentage of total population a Growth ofurban population 0 Percentage in largest city 0 in cities of over500,000 persons 0 Number of cities of over 500,000 persons
Table 23. Indicators related to life expectancy 52
Life expectancy a Infant mortality rate r Child death rate
Table 24. Health-related indicators 54
Population per physician 0 per nursing person 0 Daily caloriesupply per capita
Table 25. Education 56
Number enrolled in primary school as percentage of age group 0 insecondary school 0 in higher education 0 Adult literacy
Table 26. Defense and social expenditure 58
Defense expenditure as percentage of GNP 0 as percentage ofcentral government expenditure O Per capita central governmentexpenditure on defense 0 on education 0 on health
Table 27. Income distribution 60
Percentage share of household income, by percentile groups ofhouseholds
Technical notes 62
Bibliography of data sources 73
iii
Figures in the colored bands are sum- Not available
In each table, countnes are listed in their mary measures for groups of countnes () Less than half the unit showngroup in ascending order of income per The letter w after a summary measurecapita The reference numbers indicating indicates that it is a weighted average, All growth rates are In real terms
that order are shown in the alphabetical the letter m, that it is a median value, Figures in italics are for years or penodslist of countries below the letter t, that it is a total. other than those specified
Afghanistan 9 Hong Kong 91 Peru 60
Albania 118 Hungary 119 Philippines 49
Algena 80 India 17 Poland 122
Angola 50 Indonesia 41 Portugal 83
Argentina 84 Iran, Islamic Republic of 75 Romania 120
Australia 107 Iraq 76 Rwanda 16Austria 105 Ireland 99 Saudi Arabia 96Bangladesh 5 Israel 92 Senegal 36Belgium 110 Italy 101 Sierra Leone 27Bemn 25 Ivory Coast 63 Singapore 93
Bhutan 2 Jamaica 62 Somalia 18Bolivia 43 Japan 104 South Africa 86Brazil 81 Jordan 72 Spain 100Bulgana 121 Kampuchea, Democratic 1 Sri Lanka 24Burma 8 Kenya 35 Sudan 32
Burundi 14 Korea, Democratic Republic of 69 Sweden 116Cameroon 56 Korea, Republic of 74 Switzerland 117Canada 108 Kuwait 97 Syrian Arab Republic 71Central Afncan Republic 26 Lao People's Democratic Republic 3 Tanzania 19Chad 4 Lebanon 79 Thailand 48
Cuba 57 Malaysia 77 Union of Soviet SocialistCzechoslovakia 124 Mali 10 Republics 123Denmark 113 Mauritania 37 United Arab Emirates 98Dominican Republic 64 Mexico 82 United Kmgdom 103Ecuador 61 Mongolia 65 United States 112
Egypt, Arab Republic of 46 Morocco 52 Upper Volta 15El Salvador 47 Mozambique 31 Uruguay 88Ethiopia 6 Nepal 7 Venezuela 89Finland 106 Netherlands 109 Viet Nam, SocialistFrance 111 New Zealand 102 Republic of 20
German Democratic Republic 125 Nicaragua 53 Yemen Arab Republic 38Germany, Federal Republic of 114 Niger 29 Yemen, People's DemocraticGhana 34 Nigeria 54 Republic of 39Greece 90 Norway 115 Yugoslavia 87Guatemala 59 Pakistan 30 Zaire 12
The World Development Indicators, produced as Most of the information used in computing the
a by-product of the World Bank's statistical and indicators was drawn from the data files and pub-
analytical work, provide information on the main lications of the World Bank, the International
features of social and economic development. Over Monetary Fund, and the United Nations and spe-
time, the World Bank has developed standard data cialized agencies.formats for operational use, and its data bank has For ease of reference, ratios and rates of growth
become increasingly geared to the provision of are shown; absolute values are reported only in a
statistical inputs for internal information and de- few instances. Most growth rates were calculated
cision papers The broad range of internationally for two periods: 1960-70 and 1970-81, or 1970-80
comparable statistical information is intended to if data for 1981 were not available. All growth rates
be suitable for cross-economy analysis. are in real terms and were computed, unless noted
Most of the data collected by the World Bank otherwise, by using the least-squares method. Be-
are on its developing member countries. Because cause this method takes all observations in a pe-
comparable data for developed market economies riod into account, the resulting growth rates reflect
are readily available, these are also included in the general trends that are not unduly influenced by
indicators. Data for nonmarket economies, a few exceptional values. Table entries in italics indicate
of which are members of the World Bank, are that they are for years or periods other than those
included if available in a comparable form. specified. All dollar figures are US dollars
Every effort has been made to standardize con- Some of the differences between figures shown
cepts, definitions, coverage, timing, and the eval- this year and last year reflect not only updating
uation of the basic data to ensure the greatest but also revisions to historical series They also
possible degree of comparability. Since the pub- reflect revisions to the estimates of population on
lication of the first World Development Indicators the basis of new information from surveys and the
in 1978, considerable progress has been made, 1980 round of censuses.
through the use of more uniform definitions and The economies included in the World Devel-
concepts, toward making the data more interna- opment Indicators are classified by GNP per cap-
tionally comparable. Although the number of in- ita This classification is useful in distinguishing
dicators included in this edition is greater than in economies at different stages of development. Many
the first edition, it is believed that the quality of of the economies included are also classified by
the data has been substantially improved dominant characteristics-to distinguish oil im-
The indicators in Table 1 give a summary profile porters and exporters and to distinguish market
of economies. The data in other tables fall into the and nonmarket industrial economies The groups
following broad areas: national accounts, agricul- used in the tables are 34 low-income developing
ture, industry, energy, external trade, external debt, economies with a GNP per capita of less than $410
aid flows, other external transactions, demogra- in 1981, 60 middle-income developing economies
phy, labor force, urbanization, social indicators, with a GNP per capita of $410 or more, 4 high-
defense and social expenditure, and income dis- income oil exporters, 19 industrial market econo-
tribution. Two of these tables appear for the first mies, and 8 East European nonmarket economies.
time this year, one on agriculture and food, the Note that because of the paucity of data and the
other on terms of public borrowing. The first is differences in the method for computing national
now included because of the importance of the income, estimates of GNP per capita are available
agricultural sector and food aid in developing only for nonmarket economies that are members
economies; the second, because of growing atten- of the World Bank.
tion to the external obligations of developing coun- The format of this edition generally follows that
tries. used in previous years, but some of the economies
I
have been reclassified to reflect changes in their low-income economies. And because trade in oilincome levels. affects the economic characteristics and perform-
In each group, economies are listed in ascending ance of middle-income economies; summaryorder of income per capita, and that order is used measures are also shown for oil importers and forin all tables. The alphabetical list on the opposite oil exporters. In this year's edition, the large grouppage shows the reference number of each econ- of middle-income economies is also divided intoomy. Countries with populations of less than a lower and upper categories to give greater mean-million are not reported in the tables, largely for ing to the summary measures.lack of comprehensive data. The technical notes The weights used in computing the summaryfor Table 1 show some basic indicators for 34 small measures are described in the technical notes. Thecountries that are members of the United Nations, letter w after a summary measure indicates that itthe World Bank, or both. is a weighted average; the letter m, that it is a
Summary measures-totals, median values, or median value; the letter t, that it is a total. Theweighted averages-were calculated for the econ- median is the middle value of a data set arrangedomy groups only if data were adequate and mean- in order of magnitude. Because the coverage ofingful statistics could be obtained. Because China economies is not uniform for all indicators andand India heavily bias the summary measures for because the variation around central tendenciesall low-income economies, summary measures are can be large, readers should exercise caution inseparately shown for China and India and for other comparing the summary measures for different
cr(up$ of eccnames
The colors on the map show whatgroup a country has been placed in onthe basis of its GNP per capita and,in some mstances, its distinguishingeconomic charactenstics. For example,all low-income countries, those with aGNP per capita of less than $410, arecolored yellow. The groups are thesame as those used in the 27 tablesthat follow, and they include only the125 countres with a population of morethan 1 millionK Low-income economies
Industnal market economies_ East European nonmarket economies
D Not included in the Indicators
2
indicators, groups, and years or periods This year's edition again includes five worldReaders should also exercise caution in com- maps. The first map shows country names and
paring indicators across economies. Although the the groups in which economies have been placed.
statistics are drawn from sources generally con- The maps on the following pages show popula-
sidered the most authoritative and reliable, some tion, adult literacy, life expectancy at birth, and
of them, particularly those describing social fea- the share of agriculture in gross domestic producttures and income distribution, are subject to con- (GDP). The Eckert IV projection has been used for
siderable margins of error. In addition, variations these maps because it maintains correct areas for
in national statistical practices mean that the data all countries, though at the cost of some distor-
in certain instances are not strictly comparable. tions in shape, distance, and direction. The maps
The data should thus be construed only as indi- have been prepared exclusively for the conven-
cating trends and characterizing major differences ience of the readers of this book; the denomina-
between economies. tions used, and the boundaries shown, do not
The technical notes should be referred to in any imply on the part of the World Bank and its af-
use of the data. These notes outline the methods, filiates any judgment on the legal status of any
concepts, definitions, and data sources. The bib- territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such
liography gives details of the data sources, which boundaries.contain comprehensive definitions and descrip- The World Development Indicators are pre-
tions of concepts used pared under the supervision of Ramesh Chander.
3
Popukah1on and GMP per capit
= 0-15 million|
15-50 million
_ 50-100 million \Sc g_ More than 100 millon
W Data not available
The colors on the map show the gen- ulation for each of 124 countries, theeral size of a country's population For technical note to that table gives dataexample, countnes with a population for 34 more countnes with a popula-of less than 15 million are colored yel- hon of less than 1 millionlow Note that Table I gives the pop-
In the chart below, the world's pop- The chart at right shows the propor- Populationulation has been arranged by the GNP tions of population and production ac-per capita of the countnes that people counted for by each country group,live in The chart shows, for example, except East European nonmarketthat more than 2 billion people live in economies. (The countrycountnes with a GNP per capita of less groups are those shown inthan $410 the map on the preceding
page and in the 27 tables thatfollow ) The chart shows, forexample, that low-income
East European countnes, those with an av-nonmarket erage GNP per capita of S270,
account for more than halfthe people but les-s than a Production
Industrial market tenth of the production ofgoods and services
High-income oil exporters
Mlddle-income
Low-income
0 1 2
Billions of people
4
Adult literacy
H 0-24 percent25-49 percent
50-74 percent
75-100 percent
D2 Data not available
The adult literacy rate is the percent-age of people over 15 who can readand wnte The map classes countriesby the rates given for individual coun-tries in Table 1 and repeated in Table25 For example, the countries coloredyellow had an adult literacy rate ofless than 25 percent in 1980
The chart at left shows where theworld's illiterate adults live-mostlyin low-income countnes, which ac-count for about half the world's peo- L iterate ra
/ I \ ~~~~~~~ple llhterate
The chart at nght shows how the pro-portion of illiterate and literate adultschanged in developing countnes be-tween 1960 and 1980 The height ofthe cylinders reflects the total numberof adults in developing countries ineach of the two years So, while theproportion of literate adults has in-creased-from 34 percent to 55 per-
_ Low-income cent-the number of literate adults hasMiddle-income increased even more-from 400 mtl-High-income oil exporters lion to 1 billion 1960 1980Industnal market economiesEast European nonmarket economies
5
Lfife expetany
H 0-49 years50-59 years
60-69 years
70-76 years
D Data not available
The map classifies countries by life ex-pectancy at birth-that is, by the num-ber of years a baby bom in 1981 canexpect to hve. For example, life ex-pectancy at birth is less than 50 yearsin countries colored yellow.
YearsThe chart at nght shows how hfe ex-pectancy has increased since 1960 for 1981the vanous country groups. For ex- 0 _ample, hfe expectancy m the low-in- 1960come countries has increased 15 years,from 42 for a baby born m 1960 to 57for one bom in 1981. Table 23 showshow individual countnes have faredin relation to the average for their 60
country group.
50
The chart above shows that the pro-4 portion of infants surviving the first
year of hfe has increased from 84 per-cent in low-income countnes in 1960to 91 percent in 1981. That imnprove-
40 _ _ _ _ ment accounts for 11 of the 15 yearsin the increase in life expectancy inthose countnes, as is shown by theshaded area in the bar for low-income
-. E E countries at left.0
0~~~~
0 ~~~~~~~0
6 i
6
Share of agriculture in GDP
H 0-9 percent
10-9 percent
_ V19 percent l ,20-39 percent 1v
40-66 percent
D Data not available
The value added by a country's agri- example, countries whose shares ofcultural sector divided by the gross agnculture in GDP range from 0 to 24domestic product gives the share of percent are colored yellow The sharesagnculture in GDP In the map coun- say nothing about absolute values oftnes are classified by those shares For production
The chart at nght shows the weightedaverage of agnculture's share in GDP _-lfor each group of countnes For ex- w-icome eample, the weighted average for low-income countnes is 42 percent, thatfor industrial countnes 3 percent. This .l_difference shows that as GNP per cap-ita goes up, the share of agnculture inGDP goes down It is not that the ag-ncultural sector gets smaller, but that -high-incomethe industnal and services sectors get oil exporterslarger.
Industrial market l _l_l
economies
East Europeannonmarket economies
The chart at left shows the range ofagnculture's share in GDP for low-in-
GDP " come countries, from 24 percent to 75percent The figures are taken from
Table 3, which gives data forindividual countnes.
Biggest share Smallest share7
GNP per capitaAverage Life
Area annual Average annual Adult expectancyPopulation (thousands growth rate of inflation0a literacy at birth(millions) of square Dollars (percent) (percent) (percent) (years)Mid-1981 kilometers) 1981 1960-81b 1960-~70c 197G-~8 1d 19800 1981
Average Avrgeanal Aul xeayArea annual Avrganul Aut epcny
Population (thousands growth rate of inflation, literacy at birth(millions) of square Dollars (percent) (percent) - (percent) (years)Mid-1 981 kilometers) 1981 1960-81 b 1960-70c 1 97 0-8 1 d 19800 1981
123 USSR 268 0 22,402 100 72124 Czechoslovakia 15 3 128 72125 German Dem Rep 16 7 108 73
a See the technical notes b Because data for the early 1960s are not available, figures in italics are for periods other than that specifiedc Figures in italics are for 1961-70, not 1960-70 d Figures in italics are for 1970-80, niot 1970-81 e Figures in italics are for years other thanthose specified See the technical notes
9
Average annual growth rate (percent)
GDP Agriculture Industry Manufacturing Services
1960- 70 1 970 -8 1 1 1960-7081970-81b 1960-70 19708 1 b 1960-70 1 97 0971 b 1960-70a 1970-81b
Low-lncome economiesChina and IndiaOther low-lncome
a Figures in italics are for 1961-70, not 1960-70 b Figures in italics are tor 1970-80, not 1970-81 c Excludes unallocated share of GDPd Based on net material product
Tabe 30 Sthr ir of podu&G
GDP Distribution of gross domestic product (percent)(millions of dollars) Agriculture Industry (Manufacturing) Services
118 Albania119 Hungary' 20,290 20 19 59 46 52 38 21 35120 Romania 48,412 13 60 27121 Bulgaria122 Poland123 USSR124 Czechoslovakia125 German Dem Rep
a Manufacturing is a part of the industrial sector, but its share of GDP is shown separately because it typically is the most dynamic part of the industrialsector b Figures in italics are for 1961, not 1960 c Figures in italics are for 1980, not 1981 d Based on net material producte Excludes unallocated share of GDP
13
Ta le ro GrowthuL ofn cow/su p- uLaL>an inv( LLVw"e.nts
Average annual growth rate (percent)
Public Private Grossconsumption consumption domestic investment
1960-70e 1970Q- 1b 1960-70 1970-81 b 1960-70a 1970-8 1b
Low-income economiesChina and IndiaOther low-income
1 Kampuchea, Dem 26 32 032 Bhutan3 Lao, PDR4 Chad 44 -07 235 Bangladesh c c 34 42 11 1 29
6 Ethiopia 47 34 47 34 57 -037 Nepal8 Burma c c 28 42 36 899 Afghanistan c 2 0 -1 0
118 Albania119 Hungary c 45 31 37 78 49120 Romania 11 2 8 2121 Bulgaria122 Poland123 USSR124 Czechoslovakia125 German Dem Rep
a Figures in italics are for 1961-70, not 1960-70 b Figures in italics are for 1970-80, not 1970-81 c Separate figures are not available for publicconsumption, which is therefore included in private consumption
15
Table S. S¢rchire of demdDistribution of gross domestic product (percent)
Exportsof goods
Public Private Gross domestic Gross domestic and nonfactor Resourceconsumption consumption investment saving services balance
1960' 1981 b 19600 198 1 b 19600 19 81 b 19600 1 9 81 b 19600 1 98 1 b 19600 1 9 8 1 b
118 Albania119 Hungary c 10 74 61 28 30 26 29 39 -1120 Romania 33 28 ()121 Bulgaria122 Poland123 USSR124 Czechoslovakia125 German Dem Rep
a Figures in italics are for 1961, not 1960 b Figures in italics are for 1980, not 1981 c Separate figures are not available for public consumption,which is therefore included in private consumption
17
TabRe 6. A4ricultre and fValue added Volume of Food aid Fertilizer Average index ofin agriculture cereal imports in cereals consumption food production(millions of (thousands (thousands of (per hectare of per capita
MiddIe-Income economies 41,308 t 73.513 t 2,342 t 4,884 t 212 w 457 wOil exporters 17,941 t 34,822±t 145 w 394 wOil importers 23,367 t 38,691t± 249 w 489 w
Value added Volume of Food aid Fertilizer Average index ofin agriculture cereal imports in cereals consumption food production(millions of (thousands (thousands of (per hectare of per capita
Middle-income economies 13 9w 64w 87w 55w 421 w 987 w 9 w 23 wOiliexporters 13 2w -57w 62w 48w 274 w 665 w 5 w 7 wOil importers 10.7 w 69w 98w 4 5w 427 w 1,200 w 13 w 34 w
Low-income economles 9 w 18 w 70 w 37 w 15 w 18 w ()w 4 w 6 w 23wChina and Indla 20 w 30 w 18w 5 w 27wOther low-income 8 w 9 w 83 w 62 w 4 w 21 w w 2 w 5 w 6w
Middle-lncome economiss 30 w 36 w 59 w 27 w 3 w 9 w 1 w low 7 w 18 wOil exporters 48 w 78 w 48 w 15 w 1 w 2 w (.) w 2 w 3 w 3 wOil Importers 15 w 12 w 68 w 34 w 5 w 13 w 2 w 14 w 10 w 27 w
123 USSR 18 67 51 14 (()31 19124 Czechoslovakia 16 49 67 17 ()3 17 31125 German Dem Rep 19 44 68 30 C 1 13 25
a Includes Luxembourg
31
Table 113. ORigin and desfdaflon of manufactured expoftb
Destination of manufactured exports (percentage of total) Value of___________________________________________________________- manufacturedIndustrial East European exportsmarket nonmarket High-income Devesloping (millions
economies economies oil exporters economies of dollars)Origin 1 962, 1 98 0 b 1 962, 1 9 8 0 b 19620 1 9 80b, 19620 1 9 8 0 b 19620 1 g8Qb
8tiddle-Income economies 10,504 t 84,198 t 61 w 12 5w 16 w 12 w 4 w 4 wOil exporters 4,014 t 35,224 t 61w 12 9w 15wz 11 w 4 w 4 wOil Importers 6,490 t 48,974 6.1 w 12.2 w 17 w 13 w 4 w 4 w
Middle-income economies 31 w 3.0 w 13 9 w 14 2 7w 26 w 28 w 20 w 27 w 8 w 10 wOll exporters 3 0 w 21 w 17.5 zt 10 8 w 33 w 23 w 25 w 32 w 8 w 9 wOil Importers 31 w 34w 12 5 w 16 8 zv 23 w 32 w 17 w 22 w 9 w 11 w
Lowermiddle-Income 32w 38w 12.7 w 156w 15w 18w 15w 16w 4 w 5w
118 Albania119 Hungary120 Romania121 Bulgaria122 Poland123 USSR124 Czechoslovakia125 German Dem Rep
a These estimates should be treated with caution See the technical notes
61
This edition of the World Development Indicators The GNP per capita figures were calculated ac-provides economic indicators for periods of years cording to the World Bank Atlas method, underand social indicators for selected years in a form which the conversion of GNP proceeds in the fol-suitable for comparing economies and groups of lowing manner. The first step is to convert theeconomies. Although the statistics and measures GNP series in constant market prices and nationalhave been carefully selected to provide a compre- currency units to one measured in constant av-hensive picture of development, readers are urged erage 1979-81 prices. This is done by multiplyingto exercise care in interpreting them. This is par- the original constant price series by the weighted-ticularly true of comparing indicators across average domestic GNP deflator for the base periodeconomies, because statistical methods, coverage, (that is, by the ratio of total GNP in current pricespractices, and definitions differ widely. The sta- to total GNP in constant prices for the 1979-81tistical systems in many developing economies still period). The second step is to convert the seriesare weak, and this affects the availability and re- measured in constant average 1979-81 prices inliability of the data, the more so for countries that national currency to one in US dollars by dividingare not members of the World Bank. that series by the weighted-average exchange rate
All growth rates shown are in real terms and, for the base period. The weighted-average ex-unless otherwise noted, have been computed by change rate is the ratio of the sum of GNP inusing the least-squares method. The least-squares current prices to the sum of the GNP divided bygrowth rate, r, is calculated by regressing the an- the annual average exchange rate in national cur-nual values of the variable in the relevant period rency per US dollar for 1979, 1980, and 1981. Theusing the logarithmic form: Log X, = a + bt + e, third step is to convert the series measured inwhere X, is the variable, t is time, e, is the error constant average 1979-81 US dollars to one meas-term, and b is the slope coefficient. Then r is equal ured in current US dollars by multiplying that se-to [antilog b] - 1, the least-squares estimate of ries by the implicit US GNP deflator for 1979-81.the growth rate. This procedure was followed for most economies.
The GNP per capita figures were obtamned by di-viding GNP at market pnces in US dollars by thepopulation in mid-1981. The use of the three-year
Table 1. Basic indicators base period is intended to smooth the impact offluctuations in prices and exchange rates. Because
The estimates of population for mid-1981 are pri- the base period is changed every year, the permarily based on data from the UN Population Di- capita estimates presented in the various editionsvision. In many cases the data take into account of the World Development Indicators are not com-the results of recent population censuses. The data parable.on area are from the FAO Production Yearbook 1980. Because of problems associated with the avail-
Gross national product (GNP) measures the total ability of data and the determination of exchangedomestic and foreign output claimed by residents. rates, information on GNP per capita is shownIt comprises gross domestic product (see the note only for East European nonmarket economies thatfor Table 2) and factor incomes (such as invest- are members of the World Bank. The World Bankment income and workers' remittances) accruing has a research project under way to estimate GNPto residents from abroad, less the income earned per capita for nonmarket economies that are notin the domestic economy accruing to persons members. But until a broadly acceptable methodabroad. It is calculated without making deductions is prepared, figures will not be shown for the GNPfor depreciation. per capita of such economies.
62
For Romania the GNP per capita figure has been gross domestic product (GDP) deflator, which iscderived, following the World Bank Atlas method, calculated by dividing, for each year of the period,by using adjusted official Romanian national ac- the value of GDP in current market prices by thecounts data and converting them into US dollars value of GDP in constant market prices, both inat the effective exchange rate for foreign trade national currency This measure of inflation hastransactions in convertible currencies. For Hun- limitations, especially for the oil-producing coun-gary the GNP per capita figure has been derived tries in the light of sharp increases in oil prices.by applying the Atlas method to official GNP es- It is used as an indicator of inflation because it istimates with the official commercial exchange rate. the most broadly based deflator, showing annualSeveral factors may influence the level and com-parability of these estimates with those of othercountries. The World Bank is also aware of otherestimates that have been made for Hungary. these Gross domestic product per capita c'omputed convention-
estimats havebeen deived b using ethods ally and computed by using the ICP method, selected coun-
that attempt to account for taxes, subsidies, wage tre,17ai-id price distortions, and other possible distor- ~~~~~~~Inidex of GDP' per capitaand price distortions, and other possiuse distor- ~~~~~~(United States = 100)
tions introduced through the exchange rate; they Ititternatioinal
cover a range of different results. USdlas dollars cani- GDP per capita atThe use of official exchange rates to convert na- coniverted at purchasing.pouwr- panty exchantge rate
official exchange parity exchange as percentage of thattional currency figures to US dollars does not ac- Coantry rate rate' at affictal rate
curately measure the relative purchasing power of Africacurrencies. In particular, differences between de- Kenya 3 4 6 6 195veloping and industrial economies in their real Malawi 1 9 4 9 255income, measured by their GNP per capita in UfS Zambia 6 9 10 3 149dollars, are likely to be exaggerated. The reason Asia
is that exchange rates are based on prices of in- India 2 0 6 6 322ternationally traded goods and services and may Iran, Islamic Rep of 22 1 37 7 1 71bear little relation to the prices of goods and serv- Japan 62 3 68 4 1 10ices that do not enter international trade but that Korea, Rep of 8 1 20 7 254
Malaysia 10 9 21 5 198make up the bulk of the national product of most Pakistan 2 6 8 2 312developing economies. Philippines 5 2 13 2 251
The inadequacy of the exchange rate has been Sri Lanka 2 6 9 3 365demonstrated by the UN International Compari- Synan Arab Rep 10 0 25 0 250soni Project, which has developed reliable meas- Taad50 1 6
ures of real GNP on an internationally comparable Europescale (see Irving Kravis and others, A System of Austna 69 8 69.6 100International Corn arisons of Grs Product and Pur- Belgium 87 8 77 7 88p rosDenmark 104 5 82 4 79chasing Power [Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univer- France 89 6 81 9 91sity Press, 1975]; Kravis and others, International Germany, Fed Rep 94 7 83 0 88Comparisons of Real Product and Purchasing Power Hungary 29 6 49 6 168[1978]; and Kravis and others, World Product and Ireland 37 2 42 5 114Inco)me: International Comparisons of Real GDP [19821). Italy 47.9 53 8 112
Luxembourg 90 2 82 0 91This project has already covered 34 countries and Netherlands 84 5 75 2 89will ultimately cover about 75. The World Bank, Poland 36 0 50 1 139the United Nations, and several other interna- Romania 24 3 33 3 137tiorial and regional agencies are engaged in data Spain 41 0 55 9 136gathering and research on appropriate ways of United Kingdom 57 6 63 9 illextending purchasing power comparisons to all Yugoslavia 23 2 36 1 156the countries of the world. Until such coverage is Latin Americacomiprehensive, however, exchange rates remain and Caribbeant
Brazil 16 0 25 2 158the only available means of converting GNP from Colombia 7 9 22 4 283national currencies to US dollars for purposes of Jamaica 19 6 24 0 123comparison. Mexico 20 4 34 7 170
The table on this page gives examples of the Uruguay 18 2 39 6 217differences between gross domestic product per a An international dollar has the same purchasing power over totalcapita as conventionally computed and as com- GDP as a US dollar
Source Kravis and others, "World Product and Income Internationalputed using the ICP method. Companions of Real Gross Product (Baltimore Johns Hopkins Uni-The average annual inflation rate is the implicit versity Press, 1982)
63
price movements for all goods and services pro- Life expectancy at birth indicates the number ofduced in an economy. years newborn children would live if subject to
The adult literacy rate is the percentage of persons the mortality risks prevailing for the cross-sectionaged 15 and over who can read and write. These of populahon at the time of their birth. Data arerates are based primarily on information from the from the UN Population Division, supplementedUN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organi- by World Bank estimateszation (UNESCO), supplemented by World Bank The table on this page shows basic indicatorsdata. Because such data are normally gathered in for 34 countries that have a population of less thanlarge-scale demographic surveys and censuses, they a million and are members of the United Nations,often are not available for the most recent year. the World Bank, or both. For most of these coun-For some countries the estimates are for years other tries, comprehensive data are not available.than, but generally not more than two years dis- The weighted averages in Table 1 are weightedtant from, those specified. Thus the series are not by population.comparable for all countries.
Basic indicators for UN/World Bank members with a population of less than 1 million
GNP per capita
Area Average Azwerae annual Adult Life ex-(thousands antiial rate o' nflation' literacy pectancy
Populationl of square growlth (prce?ll) rate at birth(iniztions) kilo- Dollars (percenti (prcellt) (years)
a See the technical notes b Because data for the early 1960s are not available, figures in italics are for periods other than that specifiedc Figures in italics are for 1970-80, not 1970-81 d Figures in italics are for years other than that specified See the technical notes
64
Tables 2 and 3. Growth and structure of fense and security is regarded as consumption ex-production penditure.
Private consumption is the market value of all goodsMost of the definitions used are those of the UN and services purchased or received as income inSystem of National Accounlts, kind by households and nonprofit institutions. It
Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the total includes imputed rent for owner-occupied dwell-final output of goods and services produced by an ingseconomy-that is, by residents and nonresidents, Gross domestic tnvestment consists of the outlaysregardless of the allocation to domestic and foreign for additions to the fixed assets of the economy,claims. It is calculated without making deductions plus changes in the net value of inventories.for depreciation. For most countries, GDP by in- Gross domestic saving shows the amount of grossdustrial origin is measured at factor cost, but for domestic investment financed from domestic out-some countries without complete national ac- put. Comprising public and private saving, it iscounts series at factor cost, market price series gross domestic investment plus the net exports ofwere used. GDP at factor cost is equal to GDP at goods and nonfactor services.market prices, less indirect taxes net of subsidies. Exports of goods and nonfactor services represent theThe figures for GDP are dollar values converted value of all goods and nonfactor services sold tofrom domestic currency by using the average an- the rest of the world, they include merchandise,nual exchange rate for the year in question that freight, insurance, travel, and other nonfactoris, they were not calculated by using the World services The value of factor services, such as in-Bank Atlas method described in the note for Table vestment income and workers' remittances from1 Because of these differences in concept and in abroad, is excluded.method of conversion, the figures in these tables The resource balance is the difference betweenare not comparable with the GNP-based numbers exports and imports of goods and nonfactor serv-in Table 1. The GDP figures nevertheless show the ices.relative size of different economies. National accounts series in domestic currency
As in Table 1, data are shown only for East units were used to compute the indicators in theseEuropean nonmarket economies that are members tables The growth rates in Table 4 were calculatedof the World Bank. from constant price series; the shares of GDP in
The agricultural sector comprises agriculture, for- Table 5, from current pnce seriesestry, hunting, and fishing The industrial sector The summary measures in Table 5 are weightedcompnses mming, manufacturing, construction, and by GDP in current dollars for the years in question.electricity, water, and gas. All other branches ofeconomic activity are categorized as services.
National accounts series in domestic currencyunits were used to compute the indicators in these Table 6. Agriculture and foodtables The growth rates in Table 2 were calculated
fromcontantprie seies theshaes o GD in The figures for value added In agriculture are fromthe World Bank's national accounts series in na-
Table 3, from current price series. tional currencies, converted to 1975 dollarsThe average growth rates for the summary For cereal iiports and food aid, food is measured
measures in Table 2 are weighted by country GDP o grain equivalents and defoed as comprisimg allin 1970 dollars. The average sectoral shares in Table igrain uiaentsad defndas comprisnal
cereals under the Revised Standard International3 are weighted by GDP in current dollars for the Trade Classification (SITC) Groups 041-046.
years in question. Fertilizer consumption is measured in relation to
arable land, defined as comprising arable land andland under permanent crops, including land under
Tables 4 and 5. Growth of consumption and temporary crops (double-cropped areas are countedinvestment; Structure of demand once), temporary meadows for mowing or pas-
tures, land under market or kitchen gardens, andGDP is defined in the note for Table 2 land temporarily fallow or lying idle.
IPublic consumption (or general government con- The figures on food and fertilizer are from thesumption) includes all current expenditure for Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). frompurchases of goods and services by all levels of computer tapes for Production Yearbook 1981, Tradegovernment Capital expenditure on national de- Yearbook 1981, and Fertilizer Yearbook 1981; and from
65
Food Aid Bulletin, October 1980 and January 1983. those of energy consumption per capita, by popula-In some instances data are for 1974 because they tion in 1974.provide the earliest available information. Energy Imports refer to the dollar value of energy
The index of food production per capita shows the imports-SITC (Revised) Section 3-and are ex-average annual quantity of food produced per cap- pressed as a percentage of earnings from mer-
ita in 1979-81 in relation to that in 1969-71. The chandise exports. The summary measures are
estimates were derived from those of the FAO, weighted by merchandise exports in current dol-which are calculated by dividing indices of the lars.quantity of food production by indices of total Because data on energy imports do not permit
populaton. For this index, food is defined as com- a distinction between petroleum imports for fuelprising cereals, starchy roots, sugar cane, sugar and for use in the petrochemicals industry, these
beet, pulses, edible oils, nuts, fruits, vegetables, percentages may be overestimates of the depend-
livestock, and livestock products. Quantities of food ence on imported energy.production are measured net of animal feed, seedsfor use in agriculture, and food lost in processsing
and distribution. Table 9. Growth of merchandise trade
The statistics on merchandise trade are from UN
Table 7. Industry pubhcations and the UN trade data system, sup-plemented by statistics from the UN Conference
The percentage distribution of value added among on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the In-
manufacturing industries was calculated from data ternational Monetary Fund (IMF), and in a fewobtained from the UN Industrial Development Or- cases World Bank country documentation.ganization (UNIDO), with the base values ex- Merchandise exports and imports cover, with some
pressed in 1975 dollars. exceptions, all international changes in ownershipThe classification of manufacturing industries is of goods passing across customs borders. Exports
in accord with the UN International Standard In- are valued f.o.b. (free on board), imports c.i.f.
dustrial Classification of All Economic Activities (cost, insurance, and freight), unless otherwise(ISIC). Food and agriculture comprise ISIC Major specified in the foregoing sources. These values
Groups 311, 313, and 314; textiles and clothing 321- are in dollars at prevailing exchange rates. Note
24; machinery and transport equipment 382-84; and that they do not include trade in services and arechemicals 351 and 352. Other manufacturing com- thus different from the trade figures in Part I of
prises ISIC Major Division 3, less all of the above. this year's World Development Report.The figures for value added in manufacturing are The growth rates of merchandise exports and imports
from the World Bank's national accounts series in are in real terms and are calculated from quantumnational currencies, converted to 1975 dollars. (volume) indices of exports and imports. For most
developing economies these indices are from theUNCTAD Handbook of International Trade and De-
Table 8. Commercial energy velopment Statistics and supplementary data thatshow revisions. For industrial economies the in-
The data on energy generally are from UN sources. dices are from the UN Yearbook of International Trade
They refer to commercial forms of primary energy: Statistics and UN Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. The
petroleum and natural gas liquids, natural gas, summary measures are median values. Note againsolid fuels (coal, lignite, and so on), and primary that these values do not include trade in services
electricity (nuclear, geothermal, and hydroelectric and are thus different from the trade figures in
power)-all converted into coal equivalents. The Part I of this year's World Development Report.
use of firewood and other traditional fuels, though The terms of trade, or the net barter terms of
substantial in some developing countries, is not trade, are calculated as the ratio of a country's
taken into account because reliable and compre- index of export unit values to that of import unit
hensive data are not available. values. The terms-of-trade index numbers shown
The summary measures of growth rates of en- for 1978 and 1981, with 1975 = 100, thus indicateergy production are weighted by volumes of pro- changes in export prices in relation to import prices.
duction in 1974; those of growth rates of energy Note in this year's edition that data are given for
consumption, by volumes of consumption in 1974; 1978 rather than 1960. The unit value indices are
66
from the same sources cited above for the growth tistics on the value of trade in current dollars fromrates of exports and imports. the UN and the IMF. Unallocated exports are dis-
tributed among the economy groups in proportionto their respective shares of allocable trade. Indus-
Tables 10 and 11. Structure of merchandise trial market economies also include Gibraltar, Ice-trade land, and Luxembourg; high-income oil exporters also
include Qatar. The summary measures are weightedThe shares in these tables are denved from trade by merchandise exports in current dollars.values in current dollars reported in UN trade tapesand the UN Yearbook of International Trade Statistics,supplemented by other regular statistical publi- Table 13. Origin and destination ofcations of the UN and the IMF. manufactured exports
Merchandise exports and tmports are defined in thenote for Table 9. The data in this table are from the United Nations
In the categorization of exports in Table 10, fuels, and are among those used to compute special Tableminerals, and metals are the commodities in SITC B in the UN Yearbook of International Trade Statistics.(Revised) Section 3, Divisions 27 and 28, and the Manufactured goods are the commodities in SITCnonferrous metals of Division 68. Other primary (Revised) Sections 5 through 9 (chemicals and re-commodities comprise SITC Sections 0, 1, 2, and 4 lated products, manufactured articles, and ma-(food and live animals, beverages and tobacco, chinery and transport equipment) excluding Di-inedible crude matenals, oils, fats, and waxes) less vision 68 (nonferrous metals).Divisions 27 and 28 (minerals, crude fertilizers, The economy groups are the same as those inand metalliferous ores). Textiles and clothing rep- Table 12 The summary measures are weighted byresent SITC Divisions 65 and 84 (textiles, yarns, manufactured exports in current dollars.fabrics, and clothing). Machinery and transport equip-ment are the commodities in SITC Section 7. Othermanufactures, calculated as the residual from the Table 14. Balance of payments and reservestotal value of manufactured exports, represent SITCSections 5 to 9 less Section 7 and Divisions 65, 68, The current account balance is the difference betweenand 84. (i) exports of goods and services plus inflows of
In the categorization of imports in Table 11, food unrequited official and private transfers and (ii)commodities are those in SITC (Revised) Sections imports of goods and services plus unrequited0, 1, and 4 and in Division 22 (food and live an- transfers to the rest of the world. The current ac-imals, beverages and tobacco, oils, and fats). Fuels count estimates are from IMF data files.are the commodities in SITC Section 3 (mineral Net direct private investment is the net amountfuels, lubricants, and related materials). Other prz- invested or reinvested by nonresidents in enter-mary commodities compnse SITC Section 2 (crude prises in which they or other nonresidents exercisematenals excluding fuels), less Division 22 (oil- significant managerial control. Including equityseeds and nuts) plus Division 68 (nonferrous mel- capital, reinvested earnings, and other capital, theseals). Machinery and transport equipment are the com- net figures also take into account the value of di-modities in SITC Section 7. Other manufactures, rect investment abroad by residents of the re-calculated as the residual from the total value of porting country. IMF data files were used in com-manufactured imports, represent SITC Sections 5 piling these estimates.to 9 less Section 7 and Division 68. Workers' remittances cover remittances of income
The summary measures in Table 10 are weighted by migrants who are employed or expected to beby merchandise exports in current dollars; those employed for more than a year in their new econ-in Table 11, by merchandise imports in current omy, where they are considered residents.dollars. Gross international reserves comprise holdings of
gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), the reserveposition of IMF members in the Fund, and hold-
Table 12. Origin and destination of merchandise ings of foreign exchange under the control of mon-exports etary authorities. The gold component of these
reserves is valued throughout at year-end LondonMerchandise exports are defined in the note for Table prices: that is, $37.37 an ounce in 1970 and $397.509. All trade shares in this table are based on sta- an ounce in 1981. The data on holdings of inter-
67
national reserves are from IMF data files. The re- in foreign currencies, goods, or services; they in-serve levels for 1970 and 1981 refer to the end of clude commitment charges on undisbursed debtthe year indicated and are in current dollars at if information on those charges was available.prevailing exchange rates. The reserve holdings at Debt service is the sum of interest payments andthe end of 1981 are also expressed in the number repayments of principal on external public andof months of imports of goods and services they publicly guaranteed debt. The ratio of debt servicecould pay for, with imports at the average level to exports of goods and services is one of severalfor 1980 or 1981. The summary measures are rules of thumb commonly used to assess the abilityweighted by imports of goods and services in cur- to service debt. The average ratios of debt servicerent dollars. to GNP for the economy groups are weighted by
GNP in current dollars. The average ratios of debtservice to exports of goods and services are
Table 15. Flow of public and publicly weighted by exports of goods and services in cur-guaranteed external capital rent dollars.
The data on debt in this and successive tables arefrom the World Bank Debt Reporting System. That Table 17. Terms of public borrowingsystem is concerned solely with developing econo-mies and does not collect data on external debt Commitments refer to the public and publicly guar-for other groups of borrowers. Nor are compre- anteed loans for which contracts were signed inhensive comparable data available from other the year specified.sources. Interest rates, maturities, and grace periods are av-
Data on the gross inflow and repayment of principal erages weighted by the amounts of loans. Interest(amortization) are for public and publicly guar- is the major charge levied on a loan and is usuallyanteed medium- and long-term loans. The net in- computed on the amount of principal drawn andflow is the gross inflow less the repayment of prin- outstanding. The maturity of a loan is the intervalcipal. between the agreement date, when a loan agree-
Public loans are an obligation of a public debtor, ment is signed or bonds are issued, and the dateincluding the national government, its agencies, of final repayment of principal. The grace periodand autonomous public bodies. Publicly guaran- is the interval between the agreement date andteed loans are external obligations of private debt- the date of the first principal repayment.ors that are guaranteed for repayment by a public The summary measures in this table are weightedentity. by the amounts of loans.
The data in this table and in successive tableson debt do not cover unguaranteed private debt,which for some borrowers is substantial; the debt Table 18. Official development assistance fromcontracted for purchases of military equipment is OECD and OPEC membersalso excluded because it usually is not reported.
Official development assistance (ODA) consists of netdisbursements of loans and grants made at conces-
Table 16. External public debt and debt service sional financial terms by official agencies of theratios members of the Development Assistance Com-
mittee (DAC) of the Organisation for EconomicExternal public debt outstanding and disbursed repre- Co-operation and Development (OECD) andsents the amount of public and publicly guaran- members of the Organization of Petroleum Ex-teed loans that has been disbursed, net of repay- porting Countries (OPEC) with the objective ofments of principal and write-offs at year-end. In promoting economic development and welfare. Itestimating external public debt as a percentage of includes the value of technical cooperation andGNP, GNP was converted from national curren- assistance. All data shown were supplied by thecies to dollars at the average official exchange rate OECD.for the year in question. The summary measures Amounts shown are net disbursements to de-are weighted by GNP in current dollars. veloping countries and multilateral institutions. The
Interest payments are those on the disbursed and disbursements to multilateral institutions are nowoutstanding public and publicly guaranteed debt reported for all DAC members on the basis of the
68
date of issue of notes; some DAC members pre- ment level: at this rate childbearing women, onviously reported on the basis of the date of en- the average, bear only enough daughters to re-cashment. Net bilateral flows to low-income countries place themselves in the population. A populationexclude unallocated bilateral flows and all dis- continues to grow after replacement-level fertilitybursements to multilateral institutions. has been reached because its past higher birth
The nominal values shown in the summary for rates will have produced an age distribution withODA from OECD countries were converted into a relatively high proportion of women in, or still1978 prices using the dollar GNP deflator. This to enter, the reproductive ages. The time taken
deflator is based on price increases in OECD coun- for a country's population to become stationarytries (excluding Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Tur- after reaching replacement-level fertility thus de-key) measured in dollars. It takes into account the pends on its age structure and previous fertility
parity changes between the dollar and national patternscurrencies. For example, when the dollar depre- A stationary population is one in which age- and
ciates, price increases measured in national cur- sex-specific mortality rates have not changed over
rencies have to be adjusted upward by the amount a long period, while age-specific fertility rates haveof the depreciation to obtain price increases in simultaneously remained at replacement level
dollars. (NRR= 1). In such a population, the birth rate is
The table, in addition to showing totals for OPEC, constant and equal to the death rate, the age struc-shows totals for the Organization of Arab Petro- ture also is constant, and the growth rate is zero.
leum Exporting Countries (OAPEC). The donor To make the projections, assumptions about fu-
rnembers of OAPEC are Algena, Iraq, Kuwait, Li- ture mortality rates were made in terms of femalebya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emir- life expectancy at birth (that is, the number ofates. ODA data for OPEC and OAPEC were also years a newborn girl would live if subject to the
obtained from the OECD. mortality risks prevailing for the cross-section ofpopulation at the time of her birth) Economieswere first divided according to whether their pri-
Table 19. Population growth, past and mary-school enrollment ratio for females was aboveprojected, and hypothetical stationary or below 70 percent. In each group a set of annualpopulation increments in female life expectancy was assumed,
depending on the female life expectancy in 1975-
The growth rates of population are period averages 80. For a given life expectancy at birth, the annualcalculated from midyear populations The sum- increments during the projection period are larger
mary measures are weighted by population in 1970. in economies having a higher primary-school en-The protections of population for 1990 and 2000, rollment ratio in 1975-80 and a life expectancy of
and to the year in which it will eventually become up to 60 years. At higher life expectancies, thestationary, were made for each economy sepa- increments are the same.rately. Starting with information on total popula- To project the fertility rates, the first step was
tion by age and sex, fertility rates, and mortality to estimate the year in which fertility would reach
rates in the base year 1980, these parameters were replacement level. These estimates are speculativeprojected at five-year intervals on the basis of gen- and are based on information on trends in crude
eralized assumptions until the population became birth rates (defined in the note for Table 20), totalstationary. The base-year estimates are from up- fertility rates (also defined in the note for Table
dated computer printouts of UN, World Population 20), female life expectancy at birth, and the per-
Trends and Prospects by Country, 1950-2025, and from formance of family planning programs. For mostthe World Bank, the Population Council, the US economies it was assumed that the total fertilityBureau of Census, and recent national censuses. rate would decline between 1980 and the year of
The net reproduction rate (NRR) indicates the reaching a net reproduction rate of 1, after whichnumber of daughters that a newborn girl will bear fertility would remain at replacement level. For
during her lifetime, assuming fixed age-specific sub-Saharan Africa, total fertility rates were as-fertility rates and a fixed set of mortality rates. sumed to remain constant until 1990-95 and then
The NRR thus measures the extent to which a to decline until replacement level was reached. Incohort of newborn girls will reproduce themselves several industrial economies, fertility is already be-under given schedules of fertility and mortality. low replacement level Because a population will
An NRR of 1 indicates that fertility is at replace- not remain stationary if its net reproduction rate
69
is other than 1, it was necessary to assume that All summary measures are weighted by popu-fertlity rates in these economies would regain re- lation.placement levels in order to make estimates of thehypothetical stationary population for them. Forthe sake of consistency with the other estimates, Table 21. Labor forcethe total fertility rates in the industral economies
were assumed to increase to replacement level by T pe paged of Theg nge referse onula-2000 and then to remain constant. hon aged 1564. The estmates are based on the
For all the projections, it was assumed that in- population estimates of the World Bank for 1981ternational migration would have no effect. and previous years. The summary measures are
The estimates of the hypothetical size of the weighted by population.stationary population, the assumed year of reach- The labor force comprises economically activeing replacement-level fertility, and the year of persons age 10 years and over, including the armed
reaching a stationary population are speculative. forces and the unemployed, but excluding house-They should not be regarded as predictions. They are wives, students, and other economically inactiveincluded to provide a summary indication of the groups. Agriculture, industry, and services are de-long-run implications of recent trends on the basis fined in the same manner as in Table 2. The es-of highly stylized assumptions. A fuller descrip- timates of the sectoral distribution of the laborhon of the methods and assumptions used to cal- force are from International Labour Office (ILO),
culate the estimates is available from the Popula- Labour Force Estimates and Projections, 1950-2000, andtion, Health, and Nutrition Department of the from the World Bank. The summary measures areWorld Bank. weighted by labor force.
The labor force growth rates were derived from theBank's population projections and ILO data on
Table 20. Demographic and fertility-related age-specific activity rates, from the source citedindicators above. The summary measures for 1960-70 and
The crude birth and death rates indicate the number 1970-81 are weighted by labor force in 1970; thoseOf live births and deaths per thousand population for 1980-2000, by estimates of labor force in 1980.
of lve brthsand eath perthouand opultion The application of ILO activity rates to the Bank'sin a year. They are from the same sources men- latest population estimates may be inappropriatetioned in the note for Table 19. Percentage changes for someleconoestin whc t e havepbeeniim-
are ompued fom nrouded ata for some economies in which there have been im-are computed from unrounded data. portant changes in unemployment and under-
The total fertility rate represents the number of poyment in interntonadnterna migr-children that would be born per woman, if she ion, or in both. The labor force projections forwere to live to the end of her childbearing years 198n,2000 sothu be treatedo wit caution.and bear children at each age in accord with pre-vailing age-specific fertility rates. The rates givenare from the same sources mentioned in the note Table 22. Urbanizationfor Table 19.
The percentage of married women using contracep- The data on urban population as a percentage of totaltives refers only to married women of childbearing population are from the UN (Patterns of Urban andage (15-44 years). These data are mainly derived Rural Population Growth, Population Studies, no.from Dorothy Nortman and Ellen Hofstatter, Pop- 68, 1980), supplemented by data from the Worldulation and Family Planning Programs. A Factbook (New Bank and from various issues of the UN Demo-York: Population Council, various issues); Doro- graphic Yearbook.thy Nortman, "Changing Contraceptive Patterns The growth rates of urban population were calcu-A Global Perspective," Population Bulletin, vol. 32, lated from the World Bank's population estimates;no. 3 (Washington, D.C.: Population Reference the estimates of urban population shares were cal-Bureau, August 1977); Office of Population, Family culated from the sources cited above.Planning Service Statistics, Annual Report 1976 Data on urban agglomeration are also from the(Washington, D.C.. US Agency for International United Nations.Development); and publications of the World Fer- Because the estimates in this table are based ontility Survey. The data refer to a variety of years, different national definitions of what is "urban,"generally not more than two years distant from cross-country comparisons should be interpretedthose specified. with caution.
70
The summary measures for urban population as tion The daily calorie requiremenit per capita refers toa percentage of total population are weighted by the calories needed to sustain a person at normalpopulation; the other summary measures in this levels of activity and health, taking into accounttable are weighted by urban population age and sex distributions, average body weights,
and environmental temperatures. Both sets of es-timates are from the Food and Agriculture Organ-ization.
Table 23. Indicators related to life expectancy The summary measures in this table are weighted
Life expectancy at birth is defined in the note for by population.Table 1.
The infant mortality rate is the number of infantswho die before reaching one year of age, per thou- Table 25. Educationsand live births in a given year. The data are froma variety of sources-including different issues of The data n this table refer to a variety of years,the UN Demographic Yearbook and UN, "Infant generally not more than two years distant from
Mortllt. WrldEstmats an Prlecion, 15(} those specified, and are mostly from UNESCO.Mortality. World Estimates and Projections, 1950- The data on number enrolled in primary school refer2025," Population Bulletin of the United Nations, no. esdata on m ale, an femarollment14 (1982)-and from the World Bank to estimates of total, male, and female enrollment
The child death rate is the number of deaths of of students of all ages in prmary school; they arechilldren aged 1-4 per thousand children in the expressed as percentages of the total, male, orsame age group in a given year. Estimates were female populations of primary-school age to givebased on the data on infant mortality and on the -gross primary enrollment ratios. Although pri-relation between the infant mortality rate and the mary-school age is generally considered to be 6-child death rate implicit in the appropriate Coale- 11 years, the differences in country practices inDemeny Model life tables; see Ansley J. Coale and the ages and duration of schooling are reflectedPaul Demeny, Regional Model Life Tables and Stable in the ratios given. For countries with universalPopulations (Princeton, N.J.. Princeton University pnmary education, the gross enrollment ratios mayPress, 1966) The summary measures in this table exceed 100 percent because some pupils are beloware weighted by population or above the official primary-school age.
The data on numnber enrolled in secondary schoolwere calculated in the same manner, with second-ary-school age generally considered to be 12-17
Table 24. Health-related indicators years.The data on number enrolled in higher education are
The estimates of population per physician and nursing from UNESCO.person were derived from World Health Organi- The adult literacy rate is defined in the note forzation (WHO) data, some of which have been re- Table 1.vised to reflect new information. They also take The summary measures in this table are weightedinto account revised estimates of population. bytpopulation.Nursing persons include graduate, practical, as-sistant, and auxiliary nurses, the inclusion of aux-iliary nurses enables a better estimation of the Table 26. Defense and social expenditureavailability of nursing care. Because definitions ofnursing personnel vary-and because the data Data on the central government transactions areshown are for a variety of years, generally not from the IMF Government Finance Statistics Yearbook,more than two years distant from those speci- IMF data files, and World Bank country docu-fied-the data for these two indicators are not mentation. These transactions include current andstrictly comparable. The daily calorie supply per capita capital (development) expenditure. The inade-was calculated by dividing the calorie equivalent quate statistical coverage of state, provincial, andof the food supplies in an economy by the pop- local governments and the nonavailability of dataulation. Food supplies comprise domestic produc- for these lower levels of government has dictatedtion, imports less exports, and changes in stocks; the use only of central government data. This maythey exclude animal feed, seeds for use in agri- seriously understate or distort the statistical por-culture, and food lost in processing and distnbu- trayal of the allocation of resources for various
71
purposes, especially m large countries where lower lars. The other summary measures in this tablelevels of government have considerable autonomy are weighted by population.and are responsible for many social services.
Central government expenditure comprnses the ex-penditure by all government offices, departments, Table 27. Income distributionestablishments, and other bodies that are agenciesor mstruments of the central authority of a coun- The data in this table refer to the distrbution oftry. It does not necessarily comprise all public ex- total disposable household income accruing to per-penditure. centile groups of households ranked by total
Defense expenditure comprises all expenditure, household income. The distributions cover ruralwhether by defense or other departments, for the and urban areas and refer to different years be-maintenance of military forces, including the pur- tween 1966 and 1981.chase of military supplies and equipment, con- The estimates for developing economies in Asiastruction, recruiting, and training. Also fallng under and Africa are from the results of a joint projectthis category is expenditure for strengthening the of the World Bank and the International Labourpublic services to meet wartime emergencies, for Office (ILO). Those for Turkey, Hong Kong, Ma-training civil defense personnel, and for foreign laysia, and the Republic of Korea are from datamilitary aid and contributions to military organi- gathered by the World Bank from national sourceszations and alliances but not adjusted. The estimates for Sri Lanka are
Education expenditure comprises public expend- from the results of a joint project of the Worlditure for the provision, management, inspection, Bank and the Economic and Social Commissionand support of preprimary, primary, and second- for Asia and the Pacific. The estimates for Latinary schools; of universities and colleges; and of American countries other than Mexico come fromvocational, technical, and other training institu- the results of two joint projects of the World Bank,tions by central governments. Also included is ex- one with the ILO, the other with the Economicpenditure on the general administration and reg- Commission for Latin America. Those for Mexicoulation of the education system; on research into are the results from the 1977 Household Budgetits objectives, organization, administration, and Survey.methods; and on such subsidiary services as trans- Data for industrial market economies other thanport, school meals, and medical and dental serv- the Netherlands are from Malcolm Sawyer, Incomeices in schools. Distribution in OECD Countries (OECD Occasional
Health expenditure covers public expenditure on Studies, July 1976); the joint project of the ILOhospitals, medical and dental centers, and clinics and the World Bank; and the UN Statistical Office,with a major medical component; on national health A Survey of National Sources of Income Distributionand medical insurance schemes; and on family Statistics (Statistical Papers, Series M, no. 72, 1981).planning and preventive care. Also included is Data for the Netherlands are from that country'sexpenditure on the general administration and statistical office.regulation of relevant government departments, Because the collection of data on income distri-hospitals and clinics, health and sanitation, and bution has not been systematically organized andnational health and medical insurance schemes. integrated with the official statistical system in many
It must be emphasized that the data presented, countries, estimates were typically derived fromespecially those for education and health, are not surveys designed for other purposes, most oftencomparable for a number of reasons. In many consumer expenditure surveys, which also collecteconomies private health and education services some information on income. These surveys useare substantial; in others public services represent a variety of income concepts and sample designs.the major component of total expenditures but Furthermore, the coverage of many of these sur-may be financed by lower levels of government. veys is too limited to provide reliable nationwideGreat caution should therefore be exercised in us- estimates of income distribution. Thus, althoughing the data for cross-economy comparisons. the estimates shown are considered the best avail-
The summary measures for defense expenditure able, they do not avoid all these problems andas a percentage of GNP are weighted by GNP in should be interpreted with extreme caution.current dollars; those for defense expenditure as The scope of the indicator is similarly limited.a percentage of central government expenditure, Because households vary in size, a distribution inby central government expenditure in current dol- which households are ranked according to per
72
capita household income, not according to their capita household income exists, however, for onlytotal household income, is superior for many pur- a few countries The World Bank Living Standardsposes. The distinction is important because house- Measurement Study is developing procedures andholds with low per capita incomes frequently are applications that can assist countries in improvinglarge households, whose total income may be rel- their collection and analysis of data on incomeatively high. Information on the distribution of per distribution.
73
National A System of National Accounts New York UN Department of International Economic and Socialaccounts and Affairs, 1968.economic Statistical Yearbook New York: UN Department of International Economic and Social Affairs,indicators various issues.
World Bank Atlas, 1983. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1983.
World Bank data files
FAO and UNIDO data files.
National sources.
Energy World Energy Supplies. UN Statistical Papers, Sernes J, various numbers New York: UNDepartment of International Economic and Social Affairs, varnous years.
Trade Direction of Trade. Washington, D.C.: IMF, various issues.
International Financial Statistics. Washington, D.C.: IMF, various issues
Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics. New York: UN Conference onTrade and Development, various issues
Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. New York: UN Department of International Economic andSocial Affairs, various issues.
Yearbook of International Trade Statistics. New York: Department of International Economicand Social Affairs, various issues.
United Nations trade tapes.
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United Nations population tapes.
World Population. 1977. Washington, D.C.: US Bureau of the Census, International StatisticalPrograms Center, 1978
World Bank Atlas, 1983. Washington, D C.: World Bank, 1983.
World Bank data files.
Labor force Labour Force Estimates and Projections, 1950-2000. 2nd ed. Geneva: ILO, 1977.International Labour Office tapes.
World Bank data files.
Social Demographic Yearbook. New York: UN Department of International Economic and Socialindicators Affairs, various issues.
Statistical Yearbook New York. UN Department of International Economic and Social Affairs,various issues.
Statistical Yearbook. Paris: UNESCO, various issues.World Health Statistics Annual. Geneva: WHO, various issues.
World Health Statistics Report. Special Issue on Water and Sanitation, vol. 29, no. 10.Geneva: WHO, 1976
Government Finance Statistics Yearbook, Vol IV, 1980. Washington, D.C IMF, 1980World Bank data files