World Bank China Quarterly Update

8/2/2019 World Bank China Quarterly Update

1/41

^czab Jdhi Cggkfm! Jmkokhn

~~~~czabjdhicznfh

F@KHD T]DZRMZA[ ]\BDRM

V]VRDKHKHN NZC^R@

D|zka :


2/41

R`m F`khd T}dzrmza{ ]|bdrm zmwkm~v zmfmhr mfchcekf bmwmac|emhrv kh F`khd! }|bdrmv r`m

mfchcekf c}racci dhb ad{v c}r im{ |cakf{ f`daamhnmv R`kv kvv}m ~dv |zcb}fmb j{ \`kak|

Vf`maamimhv rdvi rmde amdbmz+ dhb Pkdcak ^dh! kh fcaadjczdrkch ~kr` Pkdcgdh Ak}! \`kak| CImmgm!

Bm~mh ^dhn dhb Ekh _`dc! dhb }hbmz r`m cwmzdaa n}kbdhfm cg Iad}v Zc`adhb! V}b`kz V`mrr{!

Jmzr @cgedh dhb Dzbc @dhvvch Fceemhrv dzm nzdrmg}aa{ dfihc~ambnmb gzce fc}hrz{

mfchcekvrv kh r`m Mdvr Dvkd dhb \dfkgkf \cwmzr{ Zmb}frkch dhb Mfchcekf Edhdnmemhr ]hkr R`mrmde ~c}ab davc akim rc r`dhi Okdhtkhn F`mh! Rkdhv`} F`mh! Ak Ak! Ak C}{dhn dhb [dh ^dhn gcz

v}||czr kh r`m |zcb}frkch dhb bkvvmekhdrkch cg r`kv zm|czr R`m gkhbkhnv! khrmz|zmrdrkchv! dhb

fchfa}vkchv mp|zmvvmb kh r`kv zm|czr bc hcr hmfmvvdzka{ zmgamfr r`m wkm~v cg r`m Mpmf}rkwm

Bkzmfrczv cg r`m ^czab Jdhi cz ncwmzhemhrv r`m{ zm|zmvmhr R`kv zm|czr rdimv khrc dffc}hr

khgczedrkch dwdkadjam }| rc mhb cg Edzf` :


3/41

MPMF]RKWM V]EEDZ[

ZMFMHR MFCHCEKF BMWMAC\EMHRV

R`m F`khmvm mfchce{ kv kh r`m ekbvr cg d nzdb}da vac~bc~h D ~mdimz nacjda mfchcekf

mhwkzchemhr dhb rkn`rmz bcemvrkf |cakfkmv fcejkhmb rc vac~ NB\ nzc~r` gzce 4


4/41

cg rzdbm ke|zcwkhn g}zr`mz! r`m v}z|a}v ~c}ab davc mp|dhb kh :


5/41

|zc|mzr{ edzimr! j}r ~c}ab |zmgmzdja{ jm v}jvrkr}rmb mwmhr}daa{ j{ edzimr%jdvmb emdv}zmv

r`dr zdkvm r`m fcvr cg fd|krda dhb mp|dhb r`m zdhnm cg khwmvremhr c||czr}hkrkmv

F`khdv achnmz rmze f`daamhnm kv rc fchrkh}m vrmmzkhn krv mfchce{ rc~dzbv d eczm v}vrdkhdjam

|dr` Nkwmh r`m dhrkfk|drmb vrz}fr}zda vac~bc~h! r`kv ~c}ab khwcawm zmkhwknczdrkhn r`m

}hbmza{khn bzkwmzv cg nzc~r` rc vmf}zm `mdar`{ |mz fd|krd khfcem nzc~r` Kh wkm~ cg r`mmfchcekf! vcfkda! mhwkzchemhrda dhb mprmzhda kejdadhfmv r`dr `dwm dffce|dhkmb zd|kb nzc~r`

dhb vrz}fr}zda f`dhnm! r`kv ~c}ab davc khwcawm v}vrdkhkhn r`m chnckhn v`kgr kh gcf}v gzce r`m zdrm

cg nzc~r` rc~dzbv r`m t}dakr{ cg bmwmac|emhr

Emmrkhn r`mvm achnmz%rmze f`daamhnmv ~kaa j{ hc emdhv jm mdv{ Khbmmb! gm~ fc}hrzkmv `dwm

edhdnmb b}zkhn r`m |cvr%~dz |mzkcb rc jzmdi r`zc}n` r`m nadvv fmkakhn r`dr d||mdzv rc akm

jmr~mmh ekbbam dhb `kn`%khfcem vrdr}v Hm~ mggczrv fdh `ma| F`khd v}vrdkh krv fce|mrkrkwm

dbwdhrdnm j{ |zcnzmvvkwma{ v`kgrkhn gzce ac~ fcvr rc `kn`mz wda}m v}||czrmb j{ khhcwdrkch Hm~

d||zcdf`mv fdh davc `ma| v}vrdkh |cwmzr{ daamwkdrkch dv r`m zdrm cg |cwmzr{ zmb}frkch jmfcemv

vrmdbka{ amvv vmhvkrkwm rc mfchcekf nzc~r` Vkekadza{! hm~ vrzdrmnkmv fdh `ma| edim nzc~r` nzmmh

dhb |zcrmfr r`m mhwkzchemhr

R`m 4:r` Gkwm%[mdz \adh v}||czrv r`mvm bkzmfrkchv dhb ad{v c}r dh dejkrkc}v dnmhbd cg vrz}fr}zda

zmgcze R`m zmfmhr F`khd :


6/41

4

ZMFMHR MFCHCEKF BMWMAC\EMHRV

R`m F`khmvm mfchce{ kv kh r`m ekbvr cg d nzdb}da vac~bc~h bzkwmh j{ d ~mdimz nacjda mhwkzchemhr dhb rkn`rmz

bcemvrkf fchbkrkchv NB\ nzc~r` mdvmb ecbmvra{ gzce 4


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:

|zcnzmvv ~dv edbm kh zmfmhr echr`v r`zc}n` zmgcze dhb dbo}vremhr emdv}zmv kh fzkvkv fc}hrzkmv! mggczrv

rc~dzbv d vrzchnmz M}zc Dzmd gkvfda ncwmzhdhfm gzdem~czi dhb r`m MFJv achn%rmze zmgkhdhfkhn c|mzdrkchv R`kv

`dv `ma|mb mdvm nacjda gkhdhfkda edzimr vrzmvv dhb fchrzkj}rm rc dh ke|zcwmemhr kh mfchcekf vmhrkemhr [mr!

edzimrv zmedkh vikrrkv` kh wkm~ cg r`m mamwdrmb bc~hvkbm zkviv dhb {kmabv ch r`m vcwmzmknh bmjr cg adznm `kn`%

khfcem fc}hrzkmv akim V|dkh! Krda{ dhb Gzdhfm zmedkh mamwdrmb

Gkn}zm 4 Nacjda Bmwmac|emhrv

Dv kn`%khfcem mfchcekmv zmedkhmb ~mdi!

bmwmac|khn mfchcekmv zmnkvrmzmb vac~mz nzc~r`

Khb}vrzkda |zcb}frkch ecbmzdrmb

vkhfm r`m vmfchb `dag cg :


8/41

6

F@KHDV MFCHCE[ VAC^MB NZDB]DAA[

Nzc~r` Vcgrmhmb gzce Zd|kb \dfm

R`m F`khmvm mfchce{ `dv zmnkvrmzmb vac~mz nzc~r` dndkhvr d jdfibzc| cg mprmzhda ~mdimhkhn dhb khrmzhda

rkn`rmhkhn (Gkn}zm :+ Nzc~r` bmfmamzdrmb gzce 4


9/41

2

c}r|dfm v}||a{ R`kv rkn`rhmvv mdvmb vcem~`dr! mv|mfkdaa{ dachn fcdvrda dzmdv R`kv zmgamfrmb |zkedzka{ d vac~khn

cg |zkwdrm vmfrcz me|ac{emhr! ~kr` me|ac{emhr kh r`m vrdrm%c~hmb vmfrcz zmedkhkhn zcj}vr

Zmda ~dnm nzc~r` bmfmamzdrmb! mpfm|r dr r`m ac~mz mhb cg r`m adjcz edzimr Hcekhda ~dnm nzc~r` zmedkhmb

nmhmzdaa{ zcj}vr! mwmh r`c}n` r`m vac~khn cg r`m mfchce{ fchrdkhmb }|~dzb |zmvv}zm b}zkhn r`m vmfchb `dag cg

:


10/41

=

Gkn}zm 6 Adjcz Edzimr Bmwmac|emhrv

Z}zda khfcem nzc~r` zmedkhmb vrzchn Bmv|krm `kn` zdrmv cg z}zda khgadrkch (facvm rc 7 |mzfmhr+!

hmr |mz fd|krd khfcemv vrkaa nzm~ j{ eczm r`dh 44 |mzfmhr Kh fchrzdvr! |mz fd|krd bkv|cvdjam

khfcem cg }zjdh `c}vm`cabv nzm~ vcem 6 |mzfmhrdnm |ckhrv eczm vac~a{ R`kv zmgamfrmb d

nzmdrmz vmhvkrkwkr{ cg }zjdh khfcemv rc r`m chnckhn vac~bc~h dv ~maa dv mp|dhbmb gkvfda

Me|ac{emhr kh vmfchbdz{ vmfrcz vac~mb!

edkha{ b}m rc edh}gdfr}zkhn

]zjdh adjcz edzimrv vcgrmhmb

gzce gdkza{ rkn`r amwmav

Zmda ~dnm nzc~r` nmhmzdaa{ bmfmamzdrmb!

mpfm|r dr r`m ac~%mhb

^kr` vcakb |zcb}frkwkr{ nzc~r`!

}hkr adjcz fcvrv zmedkhmb fchrdkhmb

Kh fchrzdvr rc }zjdh c}vm`cabv! z}zda c}vm`cabv

vd~ eczm zd|kb khfcem nzc~r`

Eknzdrkch rc fcdvrda dzmdv fchrkh}mv! j}r khadhb

eknzdrkch vmmev rc dwm |kfimb }|

%4> 26 2< :7 :2 :=

Mp|czrv (nhgv+ 602 62; :76 60 :7;

Ke|czrv (nhgv+ :;7 :>: ::< :74 :72 :=2 :22

NB\ |mz fd|krd (]VB+ :!727 6!242 6!>;; 2!622 =!66= =!;=> 7!00=

Vc}zfm? HJV! FMKF dhb ^czab Jdhi vrdgg mvrkedrmv dhb gczmfdvrv

Hcrmv?

4# NB\ j{ mp|mhbkr}zm d||zcdf` jdvmb ch fchrzkj}rkchv bdrd |zcwkbmb j{ HJV kh :


24/41

4;

mf`c t}kfia{ r`zc}n` Mdvr Dvkdv |zcb}frkch dhb rzdbm hmr~cziv! ~`mzmkh F`khd cff}|kmv dh

khfzmdvkhna{ fmhrzda |cvkrkch R`m mp|czr nzc~r` va}e| cg r`m advr gm~ echr`v fc}ab jmfcem

g}zr`mz dffmhr}drmb kg r`m g}hbdemhrdav cg `kn`%khfcem mfchcekmv bmrmzkczdrm g}zr`mz R`kv zkvi

kv ekrkndrmb vcem~`dr! dr amdvr gcz F`khd! j{ r`m ke|dfr ch r`m rmzev cg rzdbm dv kh v}f`

vfmhdzkc bmedhb gcz fceecbkrkmv ~c}ab bmfakhm eczm zd|kba{ dhb bm|zmvv |zkfmv Zmadrmba{!

fceecbkr{ bmedhb ~c}ab mdvm kg memznkhn mfchcekmv (khfa}bkhn F`khd+ ~`kf` nmhmzdrm ecvr

cg r`m nzc~r` kh cwmzdaa fceecbkr{ bmedhb ~mzm rc vac~ eczm r`dh mp|mfrmb Nkwmh r`mkz

vmhvkrkwkr{ rc khb}vrzkda |zcb}frkch! emrda dhb mhmzn{ |zkfmv ~c}ab jm r`m ecvr w}ahmzdjam rc

v}f` d vfmhdzkc

Bcemvrkfdaa{! r`m bc~hvkbm zkviv dzm fmhrmzmb ch r`m chnckhn dbo}vremhr kh |zc|mzr{ edzimrv

Vkhfm D|zka :R`mvm emdv}zmv zmgamfr d rzdbkhn cgg jmr~mmh r`m fcvr cg |zcwcikhn v`czr%rmze wcadrkakr{ kh

|zc|mzr{ edzimrv dhb r`m jmhmgkr cg fchrdkhkhn r`m j}kar%}| cg w}ahmzdjkakrkmv ~`kf` fc}ab

|zcb}fm d eczm fcvra{ dbo}vremhr bc~h r`m zcdb ^`kam bdrd zmedkh vfdhr! ecvr dwdkadjam

khbkfdrczv famdza{ v}nnmvr r`dr d fczzmfrkch kv gkhdaa{ }hbmz ~d{

R`m dbo}vremhr kh |zc|mzr{ edzimrv kv ~mafcem! j}r nkwmh r`m vknhkgkfdhfm cg r`m vmfrcz kh r`m

cwmzdaa mfchce{! fchrkh}mb wknkadhfm ~kaa jm zmt}kzmb rc fchrdkh hmndrkwm v|kaacwmz mggmfrv R`m

vmfrcz `dv ke|czrdhr akhidnmv rc }|vrzmde dfrkwkr{ v}f` dv fmemhr dhb vrmma Kr fdh khga}mhfm r`m

gkhdhfmv cg khb}vrzkda mhrmz|zkvmv ~`kf` mhndnm kh |zc|mzr{ bmwmac|emhr dv d vkbm j}vkhmvv

Acfda ncwmzhemhrv `dwm bmzkwmb edocz zmwmh}mv gzce r`m vdam cg adhb }vm zkn`rv rc |zc|mzr{

bmwmac|mzv R`}v! d eczm de|akgkmb bc~hr}zh fc}ab `dwm hmndrkwm mfchce{%~kbm ke|dfrv

Nkwmh r`m amhnr` dhb wdzkdjkakr{ cg |cakf{ adnv dhb }hfmzrdkhrkmv djc}r |cvvkjam fc}hrmz%

khrmzwmhrkchv! r`m g}r}zm rzdomfrcz{ cg |zc|mzr{ |zkfmv zmedkhv }hfamdz

ACHNMZ%RMZE @CZK_CH F@DZDFRMZK_MB J[ VRZ]FR]ZDA DBO]VREMHR

Vrz}fr}zda Bmwmac|emhrv rc Bde|mh C}racci

F`khdv nzc~r` |mzgczedhfm cwmz r`m advr r`zmm bmfdbmv ~dv hcr`khn v`czr cg ke|zmvvkwm ^kr`

nzc~r` zdrmv dr dzc}hb 4< |mzfmhr |mz {mdz! F`khd memznmb dv r`m ~czabv vmfchb%adznmvr

mfchce{ dhb r`m adznmvr mp|czrmz dhb edh}gdfr}zmz \mz fd|krd khfcem davc zcvm zd|kba{!

daac~khn gcz r`m rzdhvkrkch gzce ac~%khfcem rc }||mz%ekbbam khfcem vrdr}v R`m |cwmzr{ zdrm gmaa

bzdedrkfdaa{! akgrkhn cwmz `dag d jkaakch |mc|am c}r cg |cwmzr{

]zjdhkdrkch dhb edzimr zmgcze akmb dr r`m `mdzr cg F`khdv mfchcekf mp|dhvkch( Zd|kb

}zjdhkdrkch rzdhvgczemb F`khd gzce d |zkedzka{ z}zda! dnzkf}ar}zda mfchce{ khrc dh khfzmdvkhna{

}zjdh chm ~kr` d eczm bkwmzvkgkmb mfchcekf vrz}fr}zm R`m advr r`zmm bmfdbmv davc vd~ r`m

rzdhvgczedrkch gzce d fceedhb%jdvmb mfchce{ rc d eczm bmfmhrzdakmb dhb edzimr%jdvmb

v{vrme R`mvm r~c gdfrczv fcdamvfmb rc |zcb}fm adznm mggkfkmhf{ ndkhv dhb `dwm gdfkakrdrmb

F`khdv memznmhfm dv d ~czab%fadvv fce|mrkrkwm |c~mz`c}vm


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World Bank China Quarterly Update

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