World Bank 18 June 2013 1 William. M. Lapenta and Jordan Alpert Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Numerical Weather Prediction: Science Serving.

World Bank 18 June 2013 1

William. M. Lapentaand

Jordan Alpert

Environmental Modeling CenterNOAA/NWS/NCEP

NCEP

Numerical Weather Prediction:

Science Serving Society


Presentation Outline

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Why NOAA Conducts Operational Numerical Weather Prediction

Near-term NCEP Model Development Plans

Growing use of NWP Information

Data Dissemination: NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS)


The National Centers for Environmental Prediction

CPC

HPC

SPC

SWPC

AWC

OPC

NHC

NCO

EMC

World Bank 18 June 2013

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate, Weather, and Ocean Products

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

4

Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert, and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations

Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Weather Prediction CenterOcean Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center


1. Global Observing System

2. High Performance Computers

3. Data Assimilation, Modeling and Post Processing

Three Major Components of the Numerical

Prediction Enterprise….

Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is

based on numerical prediction

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The NOAA Operational Modeling Enterprise

NOAA Science Serving Society….


NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission

– Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAARequired for agency to meet service-based metrics

– National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics

(* Government Performance & Results Act)Hurricane Track and Intensity Winter Storm WarningPrecipitation Threat Flood WarningMarine Wind Speed and Wave Height

– Operational numerical guidance:Foundational tools used by government, public and

private industry to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive US economic growth

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Lead Time and

Accuracy!


Forecast UncertaintyForecast Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Benefits

Mar

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e

Mar

itim

e

Life

& P

rope

rty

Life

& P

rope

rty

Spa

ce O

pera

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Spa

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pera

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Rec

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ion

Rec

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ion

Eco

syst

em

Eco

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em

Env

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Env

iron

men

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Em

erge

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Mgm

t

Em

erge

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Com

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Com

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Hyd

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Hyd

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Fire

Wea

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Avi

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Avi

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n• North American Ensemble Forecast System

• Climate Forecast System

• Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

• Global Forecast System

• North American Mesoscale

• Rapid Refresh

• Dispersion (smoke)

• Global Ensemble Forecast System

• Regional Hurricane• (HWRF & GFDL)

• Waves • Global Ocean• Space Weather

Spanning Weather and Climate

• Tsunami• Whole Atmosphere• HRRR• NMME

• Wave Ensemble

• Bays• Storm Surge

• Global Dust

• Fire Wx

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Nu

mb

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of

No

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s

High Water Mark 2010

24-h Snapshot 20 August 2012

Time of Day (UTC)

00 06 12 18 00

Numerical Guidance Suite Execution on the Operational NOAA Supercomputer

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CFS NAM GFSGEFS SREF


Posted within15 minTOC retrieved within 15 min

2011

Computing Capability“Reliable, Timely and Accurate”

• Current– IBM Power6– 74 trillion calculations/sec – 27.8 million model

fields/day– Primary: Gaithersburg, MD– Backup: Fairmont, WV– Guaranteed switchover in

15 minutes• Next Generation

– IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux– Primary: Reston, VA– Backup: Orlando, FL– 178 trillion calc/sec– Go-live date expected on

16 July 2013


Looking Forward…NCEP Global Systems Into 2015


• Facilitated by the NOAA Climate Test Bed

• NMME as a Modeling Test-Bed• Seasonal to Interannual Time Scales• Predictability Research: e.g., South East US Drought• Model Evaluation and Development• Initialization Strategies: e.g., Land, Ocean• Fosters interaction between research and operations• Provides experimental guidance products to Climate Prediction Center

• Participating Organizations:• University of Miami - RSMAS• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)• Center for Ocean--‐Land--‐Atmosphere Studies (COLA)• International Research Ins7tute for Climate and Society (IRI)• Canadian Meteorological Centre (Soon)

National Multi-ModelEnsemble (NMME) Project

Data are available at: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/

• NASA – GMAO• NOAA/NCEP/EMC/CPC• NOAA/GFDL• Princeton University• University of Colorado (CIRES


NAM• Implemented 18 October 2011• NEMS based NMM• Parent remains at 12 km• Multiple Nests Run to ~48hr

– ~4 km CONUS nest– ~6 km Alaska nest– ~3 km HI & PR nests– ~1.5-2km DHS/FireWeather/IMET

possible

Rapid Refresh• Scheduled implementation 20 March 2012• WRF-based ARW• Use of GSI analysis• Expanded 13 km Domain to

include Alaska• Experimental 3 km HRRR

RUC-13 CONUS domain

WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010

Original CONUS domain

Experimental 3 km HRRR

NCEP Mesoscale Modelingfor CONUS:


Convective Scale NWP:High Impact Weather

Initialized with RAPv2 analysis

12km parent domain with 1.3km moving nest

Nest motion prescribed

Output every 10 minutes

Supports NOAA WoF and WRN initiatives

Ongoing development: Nest movement based on

phenomena of interest

2-way nesting for hurricane applications

Computationally efficient

1.3 KM NMM Moving Nest applied to 29 June 2012 DerechoSimulated maximum composite radar reflectivity


Coordinated forecast guidance requires: Following weather events with

long lead times from Global models

Regional and mesoscale for localized severe weather

Prediction and warnings for High impact events

Challenging in the absence of adequate real time observational networks in developing countries

Deterministic ensemble prediction systems: Dynamical downscaling

Statistical adjustment generate the needed information

Application of uncertainty information

Role of NWP in theForecast Process


NCEP serving as a global center in support of the Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP) since 2006

African Desk represents NCEP in the SWFDP Provides access to NCEP global and regional data and products

Offers professional development training to weather forecasters as part of the US contribution to the WMO VCP

Trained 33 meteorologists from 23 countries across Africa in weather forecasting and in NWP since 2006.

Implemented a website to provide access to NCEP NWP guidance

• Meets the needs and requirements of the forecasters in Africa

• Extends globally as part of an outreach to the international community

Model development benefits from global customer feedback

NCEP Scientific Developments Impacts on Life, Property and Commerce

Need for Climate and Weather model output data

NOMADS is a distributed data service for format independent access to climate and weather models and data.

At WFO’s, and Regions, University and Institutional research, NOAA and other scientist’s. effort is wasted on data receipt and format issues with not enough infrastructure to collaborate.

Overview – What is NOMADS

Servers with services for Users in WFO’s and elsewhere to get data.

Apps to Slice, Dice and Area subset model output packed binary data sets

Slice across the complex dimensions of model output file matrix.

NOMADS serves data. Display is done by the user (client)


Data Distribution: NOMADSNOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System

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Users: constrained queries or use own programs to get select data

Commercial packages such as IDL, MATLAB and freeware analysis and display software such as GrADS

NCEP server data sets appear as local files on the users workstation

Only the requested data that is needed gets transferred conserving band width

Unpacking, and organizing data across the separate packed binary files is done by aggregation on the server

Results in the best performance possible from server hardware and firmware


Summary

Thoughts on numerical weather prediction: Operational NWP systems increasing in resolution and complexity

Applications continue to evolve

Demand continues to increase as do the data volumes produced

Requires effective sharing of data between global and regional centers

Data Dissemination and NOMADS A digital archive and real time data of NOAA’s operational weather models

Integrator of common web services infrastructure to support the discovery, access and transport of data and model ensemble data service dissemination

Unified Access Framework approach to data interoperability

Metadata descriptions and format independent file access, no registration and no fee

The transfer of appropriate data to where it is needed in useable form is key to making relevant forecasts

World Bank 18 June 2013 1 William. M. Lapenta and Jordan Alpert Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Numerical Weather Prediction: Science Serving.

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