World Air Cargo Forecast - Airports Council · PDF fileCopyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. left margin center right margin title line subtitle line content top margin center

Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.

The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or

guarantee of performance.

Russell Tom

Regional Director, Cargo Marketing

Boeing Commercial Airplanes

January 22, 2015

World Air Cargo Forecast

2014 / 2015

The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information

purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance.



Agenda

Current state of the world air cargo market

Long-term cargo (2013-2033) market forecast

Freighter fleet forecast (2013-2033)


World air cargo traffic grew 4.1% in November 2014

Mo

nth

ly P

erc

en

tag

e C

ha

ng

e o

ve

r P

rio

r Y

ea

r World air cargo traffic growth has been steadily

recovering since 2Q 2013 Updated: 01/11/15

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Mo. % Change - History

12-Mo. Avg. History

Sources: IATA Carrier Tracker (industry international scheduled freight) and A4A US domestic cargo traffic.


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• Economic growth anemic since

2011

• Centered in US, Europe –

key consumer, export

markets

• Weak trade growth,

particularly in air cargo

commodities

• Economic, trade growth now

improving led by US

Forecast

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Long-term

average

Real year-over-year GDP growth (%)

Source: IHS Economics


10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Ja

n

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

RT

Ks

(b

illi

on

s)

2009 2010 2013 2014 Air cargo growth stalled in mid-2011

– Weak economy

– Trade growth slowed

– Economic uncertainty

Growth resumed mid-2013 as the

world economy strengthened

Continued improvement expected in

2015

‒ 4.1% Nov 2014 vs Nov 2013

‒ 4.4% Nov 2014 YTD

Sources: IATA Carrier Tracker (Industry International Scheduled Freight) &

IATA US Domestic Cargo Traffic account for 87.7% of the world RTKs.

Air cargo demand has been recovering


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(500,000)

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Africa AsiaPacific

PRCCarriers

Europe ExpressCarriers

LatinAmerica

MiddleEast

NorthAmerica

November 2014 year-to-date

Sources: IATA Carrier Tracker (Industry international scheduled freight), A4A US domestic cargo traffic, and Boeing analysis

14.5% 0.8%

(1.5%)

7.8%

11.1%

0.6%

4.0%

19.9%

Variance of Air Cargo RTKs flown by carrier region, 2014 versus 2013


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0

50

100

150

200

1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

North America Middle East

Latin America Europe

CIS Asia

Africa

RTKs, billions


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0

5

10

15

20

1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

North America Middle East

Latin America Europe

CIS Asia

Africa

RTKs, billions


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0

50

100

150

200

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

International express

International freight and mail

RTKs, billions


0

10

20

30

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

RTKs, billions

Express carriers

Mail

Charter freight

Scheduled freight


Trucking and Air Cargo Traffic Are Recovering at a Slow Rate

Sources: IATA, ACMG and American Trucking Associations *Figures include for-hire and private carriage

0

1

2

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

US domestic trucking*

US domestic air cargo

U.S. domestic trucking and air cargo traffic,

Indexed to 1990

U.S. domestic air cargo traffic,

million tonnes


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SOURCE: US DOC Foreign trade data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Tonnes (

mill

ion)

Air cargo Maritime

2.1% 2.0%

2.0% 1.8% 2.0%

2.0%

2.2%

2.0%

1.7% 2.0%

2.0%

2.3%

2.5% 2.2%

Air cargo market share (%)

Air cargo has maintained its market share in the key trans-Pacific cargo market Top 20 air cargo commodities for the Asia–North America market


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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Intra-Europe

Middle East-Europe

South Asia-Europe

Africa-Europe

Latin America-North America

Europe-Latin America

Domestic China

North America

Europe-North America

Intra Asia

Europe-Asia

Asia-North America

2014–2033 RTKs

RTKs, billions

2013 RTKs

Annual

growth %

5.4%

5.3%

6.5%

3.1%

2.1%

6.7%

4.8%

4.0%

5.2%

4.3%

4.7%

2.0%


Freighter size categories

Standard body

< 45 tonnes

707

727 series

737 series

757

A320 series

BAe-146

DC-8 series

DC-9 series

MD-80 SF

Tu-204

Medium widebody

40–80 tonnes

767 series

787

A300 series

A310 series

A330 series

DC-10 series

Il-76TD

Large

> 80 tonnes

747 series

777 series

A350

AN-124

Il96-T

MD-11


Freighter airplane requirement

Current Market Outlook Passenger and combi airplane forecast

World Air Cargo Forecast Projected traffic

minus

equals

Total cargo

Demand

Lower-hold lift

Supply

Needed freighter lift

Supply

–

=


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2014 to 2033 Freighters

Delivery units

2013 Freighters

1,690

2033 Freighters 2,730

Share of fleet

2,170

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

960

590

370

250

Large production >80 tonnes

Wide-body conversions 40-120 tonnes

Medium wide-body production 40-80 tonnes

Standard-body conversions <45 tonnes


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2013 2033

Freighter fleet additions for growth and replacement

Freighter aircraft, units

Fleet

additions

2,170 units

Current/retained fleet

Replacement

1,130

Growth

1,040

1,690

2,730

560


Asia leads in total deliveries; North America follows

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Asia Pacific North America Europe andC.I.S.

Middle East andAfrica

Latin America

Large

Widebody Conversions

Medium Widebody

Standard-body

Number of airplanes


Large Freighters to General Carriers; Medium Widebodies for Express

Large

Freighters

588 units

82%

15%

3%

All-Cargo+Combination

Express Carriers

Miscellaneous Airline Groups

Standard-body

962 units

17%

39%

44%

Medium Widebody

Production

254 units

32%

58%

10%

Widebody

Conversions

364 units

25%

40%

35%

2014-2033 new and converted


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SOURCES: IATA, ICAO, Company reports, Boeing research

Percentage of world RTKs (FTKs) carried on freighters

Percentage of world RTKs carried on freighters

56 56

59

61 62 61 61 61 60

57 58 58

57 56 56

50

55

60

65

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2033*


Freighter service advantages over passenger belly

Cargo focus and control

Timing and routing

Capacity (volume, weight, hazmat & dimensional)

Handling location and ramp proximity

Reliability and predictability


45%

Lower

Hold

55%

Freighter

50%

Freighter

50%

Lower

Hold

5% Growth

59%

Freighter

41%

Lower

Hold

Annual RTKs (billions)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2032 2032

4% Growth

44%

Lower

Hold

56% Freighter

50%

Freighter

50%

Lower Hold

59%

Freighter

41% Lower Hold


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Slow trade, air cargo growth was mostly driven by weak demand growth

World air cargo traffic recovering

World air cargo traffic forecast to grow 4.7% per year through 2033

Freighters will remain the leading cargo capacity provider


World Air Cargo Forecast 2014-2015

www.boeing.com/commercial/cargo


Thank You!

World Air Cargo Forecast - Airports Council · PDF fileCopyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. left margin center right margin title line subtitle line content top margin center

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