Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service Farm Service Agency Agricultural Marketing Service World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report of May 10, 2016
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Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair
Economic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural Service
Farm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
World Agricultural Supply and Demand EstimatesReport of May 10, 2016
World Wheat Production
May 10, 2016
Country or Region2015/16estimate
2016/17forecast
Change from 2015/16
Million Tons PercentWorld 734.1 727.0 -1.0United States 55.8 54.4 -2.6
This is reiterated by the latest Vegetation Health Index, which shows conditions mostly good to excellent.
May 10, 2016
Knowing last year was a record gives us pause… but that aside, the VHI is currently better than
last year over most major wheat areas.
May 10, 2016
Percent Change
May 10, 2016
7
Total EU Wheat Production Change: ‐3.51 (million metric tons)
May 10, 2016
Source: May 10, 2016
May 10, 2016
In particular, one of the driest Septembers on record impacted
wheat planting and establishment, most notably in southern and eastern Ukraine.
Winter Wheat
May 10, 2016
Drought was erased by heavy November rainfall.
Winter Wheat
May 10, 2016
Spring to‐date has featured more of the same: near‐ to above‐
normal rainfall.
Winter Wheat
May 10, 2016
Data Source: GPCC
However, crop development stage has been accelerated by consistently warmer‐than‐normal weather, starting in the winter.
Winter Wheat
May 10, 2016
Temp/Pcp Critical
This year, we are entering the critical period roughly two weeks ahead of normal due to persistent warmer‐than‐normal weather.
Temp/Pcp CriticalMay 10, 2016
Temp/Pcp Critical
Russia’s winter wheat is also entering the critical period well ahead of normal due to persistent warmth.
Temp/Pcp CriticalMay 10, 2016
Winter Wheat
In short, excellent yield prospects for Russia winter wheat are on par with favorable
autumn and spring precipitation and a lack of bitter cold or extreme heat (to date).
Winter wheat yield prospects in Ukraine have improved with spring rain. Autumn drought would have most impacted planted area and crop emergence. Wheat that survived the
South Africa 6.5 13.0 100.0China 224.6 218.0 -2.9India 21.0 23.0 9.5
Major
Soybean Production*Average (2005-09)
IntensityProductionMinor
*Source: MINAG / IBGE
Soybean ProductionBrazil
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Soybean crop calendar for most of Brazil & ParaguayPlanting
HarvestingFill
FlowerRio Grande
do Sul
SantaCatarina
Mato Grosso
Bahia
Mato Grossodo Sul
Parana
SaoPaulo
MinasGerais
Goias
Tocantins
Maranhao
Piaui
Para
Rondonia
Paraguay
Cr: Subtropical Rain
Aw: Tropical wet and dry
Soy: ~40%
Soy: ~60%
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10, 2016
Major
2nd Corn Production*Average (2005-09)
IntensityProductionMinor
*Source: MINAG / IBGE
2nd Corn ProductionBrazil
Rio Grandedo Sul
SantaCatarina
Mato Grosso
Bahia
Mato Grossodo Sul
Parana
SaoPaulo
MinasGerais
Goias
Tocantins
Maranhao
Piaui
Para
Rondonia
Paraguay
Cr: Subtropical Rain
Aw: Tropical wet and dry
2nd Corn: ~40%
2nd Corn: ~60%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2nd Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil
Plant
Harvest
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10, 2016
Major
Cotton Production*Average (2005-09)
IntensityProductionMinor
*Source: MINAG / IBGE
Cotton ProductionBrazil
Rio Grandedo Sul
SantaCatarina
Mato Grosso
Bahia
Mato Grossodo Sul
Parana
SaoPaulo
MinasGerais
Goias
Tocantins
Maranhao
Piaui
Para
Rondonia
Paraguay
Cr: Subtropical Rain
Aw: Tropical wet and dry
Cotton: < 5%
Cotton: > 95%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Cotton crop calendar for most of Center-South BrazilPlanting
Harvesting
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Cotton crop calendar for most of Northeastern Brazil
Period of Highest Intensity
Period of Highest IntensityPlanting
Harvesting
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10, 2016
Brazil: Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
0123456789
Jul
-01
Jul
-23
Aug
-14
Sep
-05
Sep
-27
Oct
-19
Nov
-10
Dec
-02
Dec
-24
Jan
-15
Feb
-06
Feb
-28
Mar
-22
Apr
-13
May
-05
May
-27
Jun
-18
Parana MT
Early May
Mato Grosso
Parana
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10, 2016
2015/16
2014/15
Average
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10, 2016
2015/16 2014/15
Average
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10, 2016
2015/16
2014/15
Average
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10, 2016
2015/16
2014/15
Average
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10, 2016
May 10, 2016
China’s Corn Prices Have Fallen With Support Removal
500700900
1,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,500
Jan‐96
Jul‐9
6Jan‐97
Jul‐9
7Jan‐98
Jul‐9
8Jan‐99
Jul‐9
9Jan‐00
Jul‐0
0Jan‐01
Jul‐0
1Jan‐02
Jul‐0
2Jan‐03
Jul‐0
3Jan‐04
Jul‐0
4Jan‐05
Jul‐0
5Jan‐06
Jul‐0
6Jan‐07
Jul‐0
7Jan‐08
Jul‐0
8Jan‐09
Jul‐0
9Jan‐10
Jul‐1
0Jan‐11
Jul‐1
1Jan‐12
Jul‐ 1
2Jan‐13
Jul‐1
3Jan‐14
Jul‐1
4Jan‐15
Jul‐1
5Jan‐16
yuan/mt
Jilin, yuan/mt Support Price, yuan/mt
Source: China National Grains and Oilseeds Information Center and USDA.
May 10, 2016
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
China’s 2016 corn area is forecast to drop for the first time since 2003.
May 10, 2016
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division May 10, 2016
Record Cropping Area Expected in Argentina during 2016/17
Expected agronomic crop areas in 2016/17.
Large crop areas during 2012/13.
Crops included for the 2016/17 crop area are: barley, corn, cotton, millet, oats, peanuts, rapeseed, soybeans, sunflowers, rice, rye, sorghum, wheat, and durum wheat.
31.95 31.82
32.94
31.3031.63
31.19
32.99
29
30
31
32
33
34
2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17F
Million hectares
May 10, 2016
Free or cheap seed, rotation crop, winter weed control, no export tax, and devalued Argentine peso will encourage more wheat plantings.
Argentina Wheat Harvested Area
4.855.17
3.60 3.50
4.96
3.77
4.80
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17F
Million hectares
May 10, 2016
Argentina Corn Harvested Area
3.75 3.604.00
3.40 3.50 3.40
4.20
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17F
Million hectares
Pricing, no export tax, devalued Argentine peso, crop rotation, weed control all encourage corn planting.
May 10, 2016
Argentina Soybean Harvested Area
18.30
17.58
19.7519.25 19.34 19.40 19.45
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17F
Million hectares
Free or reasonable seed, 5 percent lower export tax again, devalued Argentine peso, ease of planting keeps soy planted.