Workshop recommendations: improving the quality of GHG inventories and projections for the LUCF sector part 2: Projections G. Seufert, Z. Somogyi S. Federici.

Workshop recommendations: “improving the quality of GHG inventories

and projections for the LUCF sector”part 2: Projections

G. Seufert, Z. SomogyiS. Federici?

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005

Projections

• Up to now, no LUCF projections reported

• Workshops in all other sectors, including

Agriculture, already organized

• Mandatory and recommended parameters

under the EU-IS for forestry to be specified

Background:

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005

• quantitative information from nine Member States available

• ~ 8 % of total EU-15 reduction required

• = 0.7 % to close the gap of 7.0 %

1 EEA Report No 5/2004

Projected importance of sinks1

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005

Potentials (until 2050; Cannel, 2004)

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005

The European Climate Change Programme (ECCP)

ECCP was established in June 2000 to help identify the most environmentally friendly and cost-effective measures enabling the EU to meet its Kyoto target

Working groups, among others: – Forest related carbon sequestration

final report available at http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/forestrelatedsinks.htm

– Carbon sequestration in agricultural soilsfinal report available at http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/agriculturalsoils.htm

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005

ECCP-2 (april 2003) measures:

8% reduction of GHG by 2010 336 Mt CO2eq/yremission in 1990 = 2000technically feasible reductions in 2008 – 2012

•Energy supply• Renewable energies for Electricity (RES-E) 100-125 Mt CO2eq/yr• Bio-fuels in transport sector (RES-T) 35-40 Mt CO2eq/yr• Combined Heat & Power 65 Mt CO2eq/yr• Biofuels, Biodegradable waste 36-48 Mt CO2eq/yr• Coal-to-gas switching (liberisation of energy markets) 120 Mt CO2eq/yr

•Energy demand• Energy saving in households, tertiary sector, industry 214-259 Mt CO2eq/yr

•Transport • Inter-modal transport, Passenger cars CO2 emission reduction ???

•Agriculture and Forestry• Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils 66 Mt CO2eq/yr• Carbon sequestration in forests 33 Mt CO2eq/yr• CH4 from waste in land-fills (Land-fill Directive) 41 Mt CO2eq/yr• N2O from soils (Nitrate Directive) 12 Mt CO2eq/yr• Renewable resources for energy and material substitution 200-600 Mt CO2eq/yr

The European Climate Change Programme

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005

Projections

• Developing scenarios of activity data

• Due to strong influence of EU policy:

integration of EU projections with those of MS

is required

• E/R Estimation: use of models and various

factors

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005

Agenda/projections

• Discussion

• Minimal protocol for reporting LUCF projections including– assessment of forest strategies, – key parameters/indicators– assumptions

(based on a proposal by the organizers)

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005

Draft recommendations for forestry indicators

• Macroeconomic assumptions behind projections of forestry activities• Forest definitions, it must be reported both the

– UNFCCC GHG inventory forest definition and the Kyoto Protocol reporting forest definition

• Forest area, it must be reported for– Total managed forest area (specifying definition of managed area),– Total unmanaged forest area (specifying definition of unmanaged area),

• And for both the forest area (managed, unmanaged):– Forest area on organic soils,– Forest area on permafrost,

• Annual harvested forest area per type of harvest• Annual burned forest area• Annual rate of expansion of forest area (afforestation/reforestation)• Annual rate of contraction of forest area (deforestation)• It must be reported for every singular carbon pool of each forest area type:

– Carbon stocks and associated parameters for calculation– Annual rate of change of carbon stocks and associated parameters for calculation

Annex V of Implementing Provisions: Proposal for mandatory parameters forestry sector:

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005

Annex V recommended parameters forestry sector:

• The same mandatory parameters subdivided for forest inventory typology and/or forest species

• Use of fertilization in forest,

• Estimate of carbon release by exceptional events (storm, pests, etc)

• Use of organic soils for forest activities (forest management, afforestation, reforestation, deforestation)

• Parameters related to emissions from organic soils

• Parameters related to emissions from permafrost

Draft recommendations for forestry indicators