Workshop process “Future water use and the challange of hydropower development in western Balkan” 11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana Anita Pirc Velkavrh Strategic.

Workshop process

“Future water use and the challange of hydropower development in western Balkan”

11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana

Anita Pirc VelkavrhStrategic Futures

European Environment Agency

Goals of the workshop:• Capacity building in understanding and learning methods applied in the project (explorative scenario building method and computer based vision building)• Strengthening the Eionet network in Western Balkan in forward-looking issues related to water use and enhance their communication and exchange of practices and knowledge• Providing input information, gather stakeholders for EEA report

Workshop outcomes: • Refined scenarios for WB: water availability, energy development, risks of floods and droughts, good water quality biodiversity, food and energy supply, health risk and conflicts. • Desired vision for hydropower use for electricity production.• Acquired knowledge on and practice of computer based vision

building tool (“vision canvas”) for water sector.

DAY 124 October 2011

Day 1Get to know better

• each other

• the region of Western Balkan with its

challanges• Balkan scenarios developed in 2011

Scenarios on water availability in the context of climate change for Western Balkan until 2060 (produced 2011)

DAY 225 October 2011

Scenarios for Western Balkan until 2060 (produced 2011) :

insights to water use, energy supply, security impacts

Day 2Insights to scenarios 2011

• ETC ICM expert view on the region:– Water and economy, hydroenergy and some impacts

to water• Refinment of scenarios

– Water use, energy supply (incl HP), security implications

– Case examples for each scenarios for specific areas (Neretva, Drina, Vardar, Tara, Danube, Sava)

• Work in 4 groups, 4 faciliators and 4 helpers, in plenay (case studies)

Refinment of scenarios

Each group will work on 1 scenarios (pay attention to the scenarios for your group)

Remeber:

• Axes of scenarios • Key characteristics and trigger points for

scenarios (see background doc)

DAY 326 October 2011

VISION

Day 3Vision building

• develop your visions:- Your own vision for your country (on energy/HP)- Group vision for energy/HP in WB

• using web tool (VISION CANVAS) adopted for this workshop

• work in 4 groups, 2 facilitators from Alterra on tool use, 4 group faciliators

• Feedback on experiance from using the tool in evaluation questioannair

• Conclusions of the workshop

Mode of work

Facilitated group work

Countries focus: many presentations with countries experiances

Posters with key information

Creative work, personal contributions

See Rules of engagement

When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.

Thank you

How to deal with the future?

• scenarios

Zureck and Henrichs, 2007

WHY SCENARIOS?• Provide long term view• Need for perpective• Slow unfolding processes• Limited understanding of systems, complex dynamic systems• Water system includes and is influenced by many factors which are

difficult to quantify• Holistic view on water systems• Input to decision making with alternatives and causual processes• Platform for conversation and consensus building

Provide better understanding of focal issue and decisions in place or foreseen.

Qualitative scenarios

Qualitative: words, images, stories

They are understandable, easy and interesting to communicate

They can represent complex systems Represent views of different experts and stakeholders at

the same time

They lack numerical estimates Assumptions are not articulated clearly

Combination qualitative and quantitative: Story and simulation approach

Gallopin and Raskin, 2002

EXAMPLE

Projections and quantitative modelling of future (trends)

Produced by computer models

Assumptions are clearer than in qual. scenarios They receive some degree of scientific scrutnity

To the users they can imply that we know more about the future than we actually do

Difficult to communicate to non-experts Can’t capture phenomena which can’t be described by

numbers (i.e.social) and complex environment Limited in scope/selected pheomena are described

IEA long-term forecasts of annual additions: World

European wind association, 2008

ST

EE

P

Identify driving forces

SESSION 2

Identify most important uncertainties

SESSION 3

S1

S3

S2

S4

Identify scenarios matrix

SESSION 4

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESSWhat will be water availability in the western Balkan region in next decades?

S1

S3

S2

S4

Identify scenario logic

SESSION 2

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESSWhat will be the impacts of climate change on water availability in the

western Balkan region in long term future (50 years)?

S1

S3

S2

S4

Description of scenarios

SESSION 3

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESSWhat will be water availability in the western Balkan region in next decades?

S1

S3

S2

S4

Risks to water availability in the future

SESSION 4

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS

S1S1

S3

S2

S4

Storylines development

SESSION 3

S4S3

S2

DESCRIPITON of the future state

By STEEP categories:

Social issuesTechnological issuesEconomic issuesEnvironmental issues:•Water•Climate change impacts•general

Political issues

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESSWhat will be water availability in the western Balkan region in next decades?

S1

S3

S2

S4

What is threatening availability of water in each scenario and what are the risks?

SESSION 4

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS

Threats by STEEP categories:

Social issues Ie.security

Technological issuesEconomic issuesEnvironmental issues: Ie. Climate change

Political issues

THREATS1. water pollution in urban areas2. lack of water treatment infrastructure in coastal areas3. lack of new technologies for irrigation

S1

RISKS1.of lack of good sanitation water availability in urban areas in coast and big cities – HIGH risk 2.of lack of food (domestic crop production, more imports needed) – MEDIUM risk

S1

Goals identification to control risks

SESSION 4

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS

risks

RISKS1.of lack of good sanitation water availability in urban areas in coast and big cities – HIGH risk 2.of lack of food (domestic crop production, more imports needed) – MEDIUM risk

GOALS 1.Reduce water pollution2.Secure food for domestic population3.…..

S1

2

Pathways to future goals

SESSION 5

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS

GOAL 1

GOAL 1

3

3

1

3

3

3

S3

NOW

NOW

Implications and paths,warning indicators

SESSION 5

SCENARIO QUESTION

Revise scenario question (Output 1):

What are the possible sustainable energy pathways until 2050 in Eastern Europe?

SESSION 1

Output 2

List of driving forces(in English and Russian)

SESSION 2DRIVING FORCES

ST

EE

P

Identify driving forces

Output 3

Four potential scenario axes(in English and Russian)

SESSION 3UNCERTAINTIESIdentify most important uncertainties

Output 4

Selected matrix (two scenario axes)(in English and Russian)

SESSION 4SCENARIO LOGICIdentify most important uncertainties

Output 5

4 Energy scenarios

SESSION 4SCENARIO DESCRIPTION

S1

S3

S2

S4

Develop plausible scenarios

Output 6

First identification of environmental impacts per scenario

SESSION 5ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS Implications