Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs SWP Workshop Energy Policy Research in the Caspian Region State of the art and perspectives Khazar University, Baku October 11-12, 2005 Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region Friedemann Müller [email protected]
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WorkshopEnergy Policy Research in the Caspian Region
State of the art and perspectivesKhazar University, Baku
October 11-12, 2005
Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian RegionFriedemann Müller
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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Concentration of oil reserves (2004) in billion barrel
0
100
200
300
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Middle EastLat inamericaAfr icaRussiaCaspian RegionUSA/CanadaAsia/Paci ficEurope
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2005.
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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Concentration of oil reserves (2004) in billion barrel
R/P*Reserves Share of world
reserves yearsMiddle East 734 62% 82Latin America 116 10% 30Africa 112 9% 33Russia 72 6% 21Caspian Region 47 4% 71Asia/Pacific 41 3% 14USA/Canada 46 4% 13Europe 19 2% 8World 1189 100% 41
* R/P = Reserves per yearly production (2004)Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2005
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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Caspian Oil Reserves in a Global Contextbillion barrels
proven reserves share in world reserves
Azerbaijan 7.0 0.6%Kazakhstan 39.6 3.3%Turkmenistan 0.5 -Caspian Region 47.1 4.0%Middle East 733.9 61.7%Venezuela 77.2 6.5%Russia 72.3 6.1%Libya 39.1 3.3%Nigeria 35.3 3.0%USA 29.4 2.5%China 17.1 1.4%World 1188.6 100%
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2005, p. 4.
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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World oil productionmillion barrel per day
2000 2030
Production Share in World
Production
Production Share in World
Production OECD 21.2 28% 12.8 11%
Russia 6.5 9% 9.5 8%
Caspian Region
1.6 2% 5.4 4.5%
Africa 2.8 4% 4.4 4%
Persian Gulf 23.1 31% 52.3 44%
OPEC 28.7 38% 64.9 54%
Total 75.0 100% 120.0 100%
Source: IEA
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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Oil Production in demand regionsin million barrels per day
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2
4
6
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12
14
2002 2030
North AmericaOECD EuropeOECD PacificChinaIndiaOther Asia
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2004, p. 106.
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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Oil Production in supply regionsin million barrels per day
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10
20
30
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60
2002 2030
RussiaCaspian RegionAfr icaLat in AmericaOPEC Middle East
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2004, p. 106.
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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InterInter--areaarea oiloil tradetrade 20032003million barrel per day
ImportExport
USA Europe Japan Asia/ Pacific
(incl. China)
Others Total
America North and South
6.17 0.59 0.09 0.32 0.90 8.07
Post-Soviet Area 0.25 4.94 0.05 0.47 0.29 6.00
Persian Gulf 2.54 3.11 4.20 7.79 1.30 18.94
North Africa 0.41 1.83 0.00 0.14 0.34 2.72
West Africa 1.42 0.73 0.10 1.04 0.32 3.61
Others 1.46 0.79 0.87 1.77 1.57 6.46
Total 12.25 11.99 5.31 11.53 4.72 45.80
Source: BP Statisitical Review of World Energy, June 2004.
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
9Source: http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/caucasus_cntrl_asia_pol_2003.jpg, 02.02.2005
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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NaturalNatural Gas Gas reservesreserves –– thethe majormajor regionsregionstrillion cubic meters
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10
20
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70
80
Middle EastRussiaAfricaCaspian RegionLat in AmericaEuropeUSA / CanadaOthers
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2004
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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NaturalNatural Gas Gas reservesreserves –– thethe majormajor regionsregionstrillion m³
Reserves R/P* year
Middle East 71.7 >200
of which IranQatar
26.7 25.8
Russia 47.0 81
Africa 13.8 98
Caspian Region 8.0 63
Latin America 7.6 49
Europe 7.3 25
USA / Canada 6.9 9.5
Others 13.5 -
World 175.8 67
* Reserves per yearly production (2003)Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2004
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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InterInter--areaarea naturalnatural gas gas tradetrade2003 2003 billionbillion cubiccubic metersmeters
Import Export
USA Europe Japan S. Korea Taiwan Others Total
Canada 99 - - - - - 99
Russia - 132 - - - - 132
Algeria 2 57 - - - 2 61
Middle East 1 6 18 14 - - 39
Nigeria 1 11 - - - - 12
Asia/Pacific - - 60 12 7 12 91
Others 10 1 2 - - 34 47
Total 113 207 80 26 7 48 481
Source: BP Statisitical Review of World Energy, June 2004.
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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Gas Supply Balance in the European Union
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2004, p. 155.
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
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NaturalNatural Gas Gas fromfrom RussiaRussia to EUto EU--3030billion cubic meters
Source: Roland Götz, SWP, S 12/2002
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Friedemann Müller: Energy and Geo Policy in the Caspian Region, October 11-12, 2005
16Source: Claudia Neumann, SWP, 2003
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