Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in the International Baccalaureate Diploma Programme Conducted by the Chicago Postsecondary Transition Project at the University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research Vanessa Coca, David Johnson, Thomas Kelley-Kemple, Melissa Roderick, Eliza Moeller, Nicole Williams, and Kafi Moragne March 2012
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Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences ......This report rigorously examines the impact of Chicago’s neighborhood IB programs on the postsecondary outcomes of graduates
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Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary
Experiences of CPS Students in the International
Baccalaureate Diploma Programme
Conducted by the Chicago Postsecondary Transition Project at the University of
Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research
Vanessa Coca, David Johnson, Thomas Kelley-Kemple, Melissa Roderick,
Eliza Moeller, Nicole Williams, and Kafi Moragne
March 2012
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
Page 2
Please cite as: Coca, V., D. Johnson, and T. Kelley-Kemple (2011). Working to My
Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in the International
Baccalaureate Diploma Programme. University of Chicago Consortium on
Chicago School Research, Chicago.
The authors of this paper would like to acknowledge the tremendous
contribution of the research staff that helped shape this report and
made our work possible. In particular, we would like to thank our
collaborator on this study, Jenny Nagaoka, who contributed greatly
to our thinking for this work and this paper. We would also like to thank
Karen Roddie and Brandon Singer for their contributions in the early
stages of the research. The authors also thank Sara Leven, Liz Baynard
and Mike Dean for their helpful comments and suggestions on earlier
drafts of this report. Finally, we would like to thank the IB students
in CPS who inspired us to do this work.
This research was supported through a grant by the International
Baccalaureate Organization. This study builds off of research conducted
by the Chicago Postsecondary Transition Project, which was funded by
the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and uses qualitative data
collected under grants from the Spencer Foundation and
William T. Grant Foundation.
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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Introduction
“If we don’t offer parents of all our schoolchildren citywide more options for college prep
programs, they will leave our school system, and they will leave the city.”-Gery Chico, Chicago
Public Schools Board of Education President, 1995-2001 (Chicago Catalyst, 1997)
In 1997, Chicago Public Schools (CPS) announced an ambitious plan to open 13 International
Baccalaureate Diploma Programs (IBDP) in neighborhood high schools throughout the city.
Hoping to replicate the success achieved in the long-standing IB program at Lincoln Park High
School, the scale of the IB experiment was unmatched by any other school district in the United
States at that time. According to then Chief Executive Officer Paul Vallas, the objective was to
“upgrade the quality of the neighborhood high school and to stop the brain drain (Rossi 1997).”
Specifically, policymakers at CPS saw the IBDPs as a way to prevent bright CPS elementary
students – those with test scores that are above average but not high enough to gain
admittance to the highly competitive selective enrollment high schools – from attending private
high schools in the city or leaving the city to attend suburban public high schools.
The move to expand IBDPs to neighborhood schools across Chicago was met with some
skepticism. Some believed the district was naive to think it could replicate the exceptional
outcomes of students in the IBDP at Lincoln Park High School – one of the most selective
magnet programs in CPS.1 Other critics were skeptical that CPS could expand IBDPs at such a
rapid rate, doubting that CPS had the students or the teachers necessary to create a “true” IB
experience (Kelleher 2001). Still others cried “elitism” and claimed that the new IB programs
would track “gifted” students away from regular classrooms and possibly create racial/ethnic
segregation within schools (Sharp 2001). The real question seemed to be whether a program
designed to serve the children of diplomats could properly serve students in urban school
districts. More than 10 years has passed, and while the major concerns about expansion of
IBDPs have not come to pass, there has been no research to date on whether IB has succeeded
in providing a high-quality, college-preparatory experience for Chicago students.
This report rigorously examines the impact of Chicago’s neighborhood IB programs on the
postsecondary outcomes of graduates of the classes of 2003-2007. We draw on quantitative
data to estimate effects on college enrollment and persistence using a propensity matching
1 Lincoln Park limits admission to the program to students who score at the 90
th percentile and above on their
seventh-grade math and reading exams. An entrance test, which includes written literature interpretation, is also
required.
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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technique and use student interview data from our longitudinal qualitative study to investigate
students’ experiences in college. Key findings include:
• When compared to a matched comparison group, IBDP students are 40 percent more
likely to attend a four-year college and 50 percent more likely to attend a more selective
college.
• IBDP students in four-year colleges are significantly more likely to persist in four-year
colleges for two years.
• Only 62 percent of students who enter the IB Cohort in ninth grade subsequently enroll
in the IBDP in eleventh grade. There are no effects of IB participation for the 38 percent
of students who do not complete the program.
• When in college, IBDP students report feeling prepared to succeed and indeed excel in
their coursework, often stating explicitly that their experiences in the IBDP taught the
specific skills and behaviors demanded of them in college.
• Despite strong academic qualifications, IBDP students often have limited access to the
social capital necessary to successfully navigate college course selection and establish
relationships with college faculty.
These findings have important implications for other urban districts interested in implementing
IB programs. More broadly, they can help policymakers and practitioners better understand
what it takes to promote college readiness in urban high schools.
What Is the International Baccalaureate Diploma Programme?
The International Baccalaureate (IB) program and its associated curriculum began in 1968 in
Geneva, Switzerland as a way of creating a common curriculum across countries for
internationally mobile students. Schools that wish to offer IB programming must undergo a
rigorous authorization process and invest in extensive professional development for teachers,
who must achieve certification to teach IB. Students who perform sufficiently well on a
universal set of rigorous written products, timed tests, and oral examinations can receive an IB
Diploma, which is recognized by many colleges and universities across the world. Since its
inception, the program has increasingly been used by schools and districts as a means of
providing a high-quality education to high-achieving students, regardless of their mobility.
Curriculum
The IB Diploma Programme consists of two years of coursework, typically beginning in junior
year for American students. IBDP coursework typically consists of six courses across core
subject areas. In CPS and many other US cities, these courses are taken over two years –
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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amounting to a total of 12 high school course credits. In addition, the program has three core
requirements that are included to broaden the educational experience and challenge students
to apply their knowledge and understanding:
• Theory of Knowledge is the seventh course in a student’s IB schedule and is, in many
ways, the centerpiece of the IB experience. The course is designed to encourage each
student to reflect on the nature of knowledge by critically examining different ways of
knowing (perception, emotion, language, and reason) and different kinds of knowledge
(scientific, artistic, mathematical, and historical);
• The Extended Essay is a requirement for students to engage in independent research
through an in-depth study of a question relating to one of the subjects they are
studying;
• Creativity, Action, Service requires that students actively learn from the experience of
doing real tasks beyond the classroom. Students can combine all three components or
do activities related to each one of them separately.
Assessment
At the end of the program, students take written examinations, which are marked by external
IB examiners. Students also complete within-school assessment tasks, which are either initially
marked by teachers and then graded by external moderators or sent directly to external
examiners. The diploma is awarded to students who gain at least 24 points, subject to certain
minimum levels of performance across the whole program and to satisfactory participation in
the Creativity, Action, Service requirement. The highest total that a Diploma Programme
student can be awarded is 45 points.
Setting the Context of IB in CPS
In 1997, when IB programs opened across the city, many wondered which types of students
these programs would serve. Our analysis shows that they serve students who look quite
similar demographically to students across the district. As of 2006 (the period we are studying),
there were 13 IB programs in the city. Figure 1 shows the locations of IB programs across the
city and the racial/ethnic composition of surrounding neighborhoods. Though IB programs are
spread throughout the city, there is a concentration of programs on the North and Southwest
sides of the city, with many serving majority Latino communities. With the exception of Lincoln
Park’s longstanding program, most of these programs are very small, serving one or two
classrooms of IB students per grade, resulting in approximately 400 graduates per year.
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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Figure 1: Map of IB Programs in Chicago
Compared with students in IB, students in selective enrollment schools were much less likely to
be demographically similar to the typical CPS student (Table 1). Selective enrollment students
were much more likely than the typical CPS student to be white or Asian, were significantly
more likely to come from advantaged neighborhoods (see note), and significantly less likely to
come from neighborhoods with high rates of poverty. In comparison, three-quarters of IBDP
students are African American or Latino, although the IBDP serves a higher proportion of Latino
students than the system average. IBDP students come from neighborhoods that are no more
advantaged than the typical neighborhood, and they are predominantly first-generation college
students. Notably, males are underrepresented in all of these groups.
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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Table 1: Demographic and Academic Characteristics of High-Achieving Students in CPS
ALL CPS
Stanine 6
Students
(N=13,107)
Selective
Enrollment
Students
(N=14,656)
IBDP students
(N=1,971)
African American 50% 28% 37%
Latino 32% 30% 38%
White 13% 27% 15%
Asian 5% 14% 14%
Male 44% 37% 33%
Concentration of Poverty in
Students' Neighborhoods
0.16 -.019 0.06
Socioeconomic Status in
Students' Neighborhoods
-0.23 0.10 -0.26
Note: Table 1 displays the demographic and incoming (eighth grade) academic qualifications of students
participating in IBDP in the eleventh grade compared to students in Chicago’s six selective enrollment
schools, as well as the population of all students in CPS who scored at Stanine 6 or above on the Iowa
Test of Basic Skills, a test score that would presumably make them eligible to apply to IB.Students
included in this table graduated from high school in 2003-2009. Students who were in special education,
alternative high schools, or charter high schools were not included in these analyses. Students in the
“CPS Stanine 6” group were not in IB in ninth grade, in a selective enrollment school, or in a Lincoln
Park IB Diploma Programme in the ninth grade. Concentration of Poverty and Socioeconomic Status
in students’ neighborhoods are based on 2000 U.S. Census information on the block group in which
students lived. Concentration of Poverty measures the percentage of unemployed males and the
percentage of families living below the poverty line, and negative numbers mean less poverty than
the average CPS neighborhood. Socioeconomic Status measures the average education level of
adults as well as the proportion of adults who work in professional jobs, and positive numbers
mean higher proportions of educated and professional adults.
CPS
Average
(N=54,563)
IBDP students
(N=748)
Selective
Enrollment
Students
(N=7,931)
Eligible for Free or Reduced-
Price Lunch
77% 77% 49%
Student Not Born in US 20% 24% 14%
Mother Not Born in US 45% 58% 47%
Mothers’ Education Less Than
College
79% 80% 62%
Note: This table is reproduced from the 2009 report Making Hard Work Pay Off and uses a different
sample from the table above. These numbers do not include students who were in special education or
attended an alternative high school. Student’s birthplace, mother’s birthplace, and mother’s education
level information come from CCSR surveys in 2001 or 2005.
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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Previous Work on IB in CPS: Making Hard Work Pay Off
This report is a part of the Chicago Postsecondary Transition project, a multi-year research
project that is tracking the post-high school experiences of successive cohorts of graduating CPS
seniors and systematically analyzing the relationship between high school preparation, college
choices, and postsecondary outcomes. In addition to this enormous quantitative undertaking,
project researchers completed a qualitative longitudinal study of 105 graduates of the class of
2006, 25 of whom participated in the IBDP across three high schools. This report is a follow-up
to two reports in this series that looked specifically at how students participated in college
search and selection. The first, Potholes on the Road to College, looked at all graduates of CPS,
and one of the most important findings was that many of the highest-achieving students in the
system were enrolling in colleges far below their qualifications – or not enrolling in college at
all. The second report, Making Hard Work Pay Off, focused specifically on the system’s highest-
achieving students (students in AP programs, IB programs, and selective enrollment schools)
and highlighted the distinctive challenges these students faced in translating their college
qualifications into college enrollment.
One of the most striking findings in the Hard Work report was IB students’ high level of
qualification for college. These qualifications were particularly notable as IB students were
Box 1: A Note on International Baccalaureate Terminology
The complex way that IB operates in CPS creates some difficulty in terminology. As we will
discuss in greater detail in Chapter 1, while the official International Baccalaureate Diploma
Programme does not begin until eleventh grade, students who participate in IBDPs are
typically selected for the program in ninth grade and tracked into honors or informal “pre-IB”
coursework as a cohort. Further complicating matters, not all students who enroll in the IB
track in ninth grade follow through with their intentions and enroll in official IB coursework
in eleventh grade. Therefore, for our quantitative analyses in Chapter 1, we describe the
cohort of ninth-graders tracked for the IB program as the “IB Cohort.” We describe students
who officially enroll in the IB program in eleventh grade as “IBDP Students.” Our qualitative
analysis in Chapter 2 required a slightly different lens. Though all of the students we
interviewed were IBDP students in eleventh grade, when discussing their experiences in the
program, they did not draw a clear distinction between their pre-IB courses and the official
IBDP coursework, but rather referred to all four years as being “IB” or “the IB program” or
“IB courses.” For this reason, when we are describing students’ accounts of their experiences
in the program, we use these less specific terms to align with students’ characterizations.
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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nearly demographically identical to non-IBDP students in those same high schools and had
slightly lower test scores entering high school than their peers in selective enrollment high
schools, who were also more socially advantaged. In short, the IBDP seemed to be taking
academically weaker, less advantaged students coming into high school and producing
graduates with academic achievement comparable to graduates of selective enrollment
schools. Figures 2-4, reproduced from the Making Hard Work Pay Off report, illustrate these
findings.
Figure 2: Incoming Achievement of Students in Academically Advanced Programs
Note: Quartiles are eighth grade national quartiles on the Iowa Test of Basic Skills. These numbers are from
graduating classes of 2003-2006 and do not include students who were in special education or attended an
alternative high school. The IB category excludes Lincoln Park.
Analysis from Hard Work indicated that IBDP students may have made significant academic
strides throughout high school. As seen in Figure 2, students in all academically advanced
programs were higher-achieving than the CPS population overall, but students in IB programs
were slightly less likely to be in the top achievement quartile than students in selective
enrollment schools. At the end of high school, however, IB students were slightly out-
performing their peers. Figure 3 shows students’ average weighted and unweighted GPAs, with
IB students earning stronger grades than selective enrollment students, and also earning much
higher weighted GPAs – which is unsurprising, given the large number of advanced courses
students take as a part of the IBDP. In a deeper investigation of differences in unweighted
GPAs, the gap between IBDP students and selective enrollment students grows when
34%
12%5%
33%
35%
31%
21%
52%64%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CPS Average IB Selective Enrollment
Lowest Quartile Second Quartile Third Quartile Highest Quartile
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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controlling for background characteristics and entering test scores. IBDP students’ ACT scores
were slightly lower than those of students in selective enrollment schools, but a similar analysis
controlling for student background and incoming characteristics removed the gap entirely.
Figure 3: Weighted and Unweighted GPAs of Students in Academically Advanced Programs
Note: This figure is reproduced from the 2009 report From High School to the Future: Making Hard Work Pay Off.
These numbers are from graduating classes of 2003-2006 and do not include students who were in special
education or attended an alternative high school. The IB category excludes Lincoln Park.
IBDP students’ strong grades, strong concentration of advanced courses, and relatively high ACT
scores made them highly qualified for college. As seen in Figure 4, well over half of IBDP
graduates were qualified to attend a selective or very selective college. Additionally, 41
percent of these students were qualified to attend a very selective college, compared to
only 31 percent of students at selective enrollment schools. These findings brought attention
to the IB programs in Chicago and suggested that IB programs were very effective in serving
first-generation college students.
2.6
3.9
3.2
2.4
2.92.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
CPS Average IB Selective Enrollment
Weighted GPA Unweighted GPA
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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Figure 4: College Qualifications of Students in Academically Advanced Programs
Note: This figure is reproduced from the 2009 report From High School to the Future: Making Hard Work Pay Off.
These numbers are from graduating classes of 2003-2006 and do not include students who were in special
education or attended an alternative high school. The IB category excludes Lincoln Park. See Appendix D for more
information on our college selectivity variables.
The analysis in the Hard Work report was not, however, intended to be a rigorous evaluation of
the IBDP or the outcomes of its graduates. Comparisons to students in selective enrollment
schools were provocative, but did not provide adequate measures of the effect of IB
participation. In addition, the analysis was not designed to disentangle the effects of the
program from characteristics of the students and/or high schools IBDP served. This report
advances this analysis in two ways: First, it moves our analysis past students’ qualifications for
college and investigates their outcomes and experiences while in college. Second, it evaluates
the impact of the IB program on college enrollment and persistence using rigorous controls for
selection into the program. It also takes into account students’ movement through the program
from ninth to twelfth grade.
In this report, we investigate two main questions:
1) Is there evidence that students in IB programs are more likely to enroll in a four-year
college, enroll in a more selective college, or persist in college for two years than
similarly high-achieving peers, even when using robust controls for selection bias?
How different are these effects if we look at all students who enroll in the IB Cohort
31%
41%
8%
28%
17%
15%
28%
34%
31%
12%
8%
48%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Selective Enrollment
IB
CPS Average
Very Selective Selective Somewhat Selective Nonselective or Two-Year
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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in ninth grade, versus those who persist through the official IB Diploma Programme
in eleventh grade?
2) How do IBDP graduates describe their college experiences? How well-prepared do
IBDP students feel to engage and succeed in college-level coursework? Do IBDP
students feel they have the skills and behaviors required to be successful? How do
these students manage the challenges faced by first-generation college students in
the transition to college?
Chapter 1 provides a rigorous quantitative analysis of the postsecondary outcomes of IBDP
students, using a modified propensity score matching approach to examine whether IBDP
students are more likely than similar students not enrolled in IBDP to enroll in four-year
colleges, enroll in more selective four-year colleges, and persist for at least two years in a
four-year college.
In Chapter 2, we turn to our longitudinal qualitative investigation of students’ transition to
college in order to examine the experiences of IBDP students in college and consider their
reports of their capability to succeed in college-level coursework, as well as their broader
challenges in the postsecondary transition.
This report paints a relatively positive picture of the success of the IB program in Chicago,
but challenges remain. In the Interpretive Summary, we focus on lessons for the International
Baccalaureate Organization nationally, as it considers expanding the IB program in urban
school districts. We also summarize local implications as the IB program in Chicago continues
to improve and expand. More generally, however, we believe this report has broader
implications for the national discussion on college readiness, particularly for racial/ethnic
minority and first-generation college students.
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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Chapter 1: College Outcomes of IBDP Students
In this chapter, we focus on three straightforward questions: Do students in the IB program
attend four-year college at higher rates; do IB students enroll in more selective colleges at
higher rates; and do students stay enrolled in four-year colleges for two years at higher rates
than their non-IB classmates? These are seemingly simple questions, but answering them
requires struggling with two central problems: first, determining whom to count as IB students;
and second, determining who to compare them to.
Determining who to count as an IB student is not a straightforward matter. Nationally, the
International Baccalaureate Organization (IBO) defines an IB diploma student as a student who
is enrolled in the formal IBDP, which starts in eleventh grade in CPS schools. From a student’s
perspective, the IB program begins when he or she applies and is accepted into the IB program
at the beginning of high school. For the first two years students are grouped together into
honors classes in preparation for the IBDP in eleventh grade. If we evaluated the IB program
from the perspective of the IBO, we would only look at the students who enroll in the IBDP in
the eleventh grade. As we will show, this perspective excludes the 38 percent of students who
enroll in the ninth-grade IB Cohort but do not subsequently enroll in the IBDP, a group of
students for which there are substantially different outcomes.
The second analytical obstacle is even more significant. Students who choose to apply to and
enroll in an IB program are clearly different from similarly high-achieving students who do not
make that choice. We would expect that these students would be more motivated, have higher
levels of parental support, or have other unobservable characteristics that would, in turn, make
them more likely to attend college. Academics call this problem “selection bias.” Additionally,
students who leave the program probably are also systematically different than students who
stay, introducing a second source of selection bias. This makes it difficult to disentangle the
effects of the program from the effect of being a more motivated or supported student.
Our analysis addresses both of these issues. First, we look at multiple groups of students: We
first consider all students who were a part of the IB Cohort starting in ninth grade. We then split
these students into those who continued into the formal IBDP in eleventh grade and those who
did not. Second, we address the issue of selection bias by finding students who would have had
a high likelihood of attending an IB program had they lived in a different part of the city. We
used this group of students as a comparison for our IB students to measure the effect of the
program. Our central findings from these analyses are that IBDP students are more likely to
enroll in a four-year college, enroll in a more selective college, and persist for two years at a
four-year college once enrolled. However, these effects are not mirrored for students who do
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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not complete the program, a group that makes up 38 percent of the original IB Cohort.
Prior Research
In the last 10 years there have been several important IB studies that suggest that IBDP
participation may improve qualifications for college and college performance, including
graduation. A number of studies describe positive postsecondary experiences for students
who participate in IBDP (Vanderbrook, 2006; Shaunessy, Suldo, Hardesty, & Shaffer, 2006).
More specifically, other studies find that completing the IBDP has positive effects on students’
college admissions, college grades, and college graduation rates (Duvel, 1999; Geraghty, 2003;
Caspary, 2011; IB Global Policy & Research Department, 2010; Caspary & Bland, 2011).
Additionally, Taylor and Porath (2006) found that IBDP graduates from two public high
schools in a large Canadian city reported being better prepared for their postsecondary
studies compared with their peers who were not in the IBDP.
On the surface, these findings suggest strong, positive effects of IBDP participation on a range
of outcomes associated with success in the postsecondary transition. However, these prior
studies suffer from at least three substantial shortcomings. First, many of the studies cited
fail to account for how students’ self-selection into the IBDP may affect the college outcomes
of IBDP students. That is, the positive findings of prior studies may be misleading if the
strong college outcomes of IBDP students are due less to the IBDP and more to some set of
preexisting, unmeasured characteristics of the students (e.g., motivation, intelligence, family
support) that set IBDP students apart as ex ante different from their peers. Failing to account
for this form of selection-bias may produce findings that overstate the benefits of the IBDP
substantially. Therefore, to be as accurate as possible, we account for how students enter the
IBDP in the design of our analysis.
Second, research on IB tends to focus on students who take the IB exams, which fails to take
into account the complexity of the pathways that students take before the exams. In CPS,
students begin to be identified as IB students in ninth grade; however, many do not enter the
formal IBDP in eleventh grade. In this report, we examine both students who are identified
as IB students in ninth and students who enter the IBDP program in eleventh grade. As we will
describe in greater detail, because of high rates of program attrition, we pay close attention to
finding an appropriate comparison group for both stages of program entry.
Finally, previous research on IB has not fully explored the particular experiences of low-income,
racial/ethnic minority, first-generation college students participating in IBDP programs within
urban, neighborhood high schools. IBDP students in CPS represent both a racially/ethnically
and socioeconomically more diverse population than IB has historically served; this additional
perspective is critical, particularly given the distinctive challenges that previous research
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
Page 15
suggests these students face in the transition to college. Taken together, findings from the
Hard Work report and prior studies of the IBDP suggest that IBDP participation may have
substantial effects on students’ college prospects. This report provides a rigorous analysis
of the effect of IBDP participation on CPS students’ college enrollment and persistence and
introduces important new findings about how IBDP participation affects the postsecondary
transition experiences of low-income, racial/ethnic minority, and first-generation college
students in Chicago.
The Complex IB Pathway in CPS
Although the IB diploma program formally begins in eleventh grade, a number of informal
school-level practices highlight the importance of examining the pathway students take into
the formal IBDP. In CPS, students apply to the IB program during eighth grade as part of the
process of choosing a high school. In some instances, students may be enrolled in a formal IB
Middle Years program, bridging them into the eleventh-grade program, depending on which
high school they attend. Informally, in the absence of middle years’ programs, CPS high schools
almost universally group ninth-graders who have been accepted into the IB program together
in an IB Cohort. From the start of ninth grade, these students take the same ninth- and tenth-
grade honors courses together. However, on average, only 62 percent of students in each of
these IB cohorts will go on to enroll in the formal IBDP in the eleventh grade.
The informal operation of this unofficial pre-IBDP pathway or track (a practice also found in
other schools and districts across the nation implementing IBDPs) creates a group of students
that we will refer to as the “IB Cohort,” which includes both students who persist in the
program through the official IBDP curriculum, as well as students who withdrew from the
program before the official programming began. This significantly complicates the analysis of
how the IBDP affects student outcomes (Bland & Woodworth, 2008). On one hand, students’
experience in this IB Cohort may be beneficial, both in terms of their performance in the formal
eleventh- and twelfth-grade IBDP and in terms of eventual college enrollment, performance,
and graduation. On the other hand, the substantial attrition within these IB Cohorts raises
significant concerns, both about how and why that attrition occurs, as well as how that attrition
may lead researchers to overstate the benefits of the IBDP. If again, for example, only the most
motivated students in an IB Cohort actually make it to the formal eleventh- and twelfth-grade
IBDP, estimates of the IBDP’s effect on college outcomes may be inflated by these exceptional
students.
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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Figure 5: The Complex IB Pathway
In order to obtain an accurate estimate of how participating in the IBDP might affect a student’s
college outcomes, our analysis must account for how students in Chicago enroll in and advance
through the IBDP itself. How we define who is and who is not counted as an “IB student”
largely determines the size and accuracy of the measured IBDP effect and has crucial policy
implications for the IB program in Chicago. In this analysis, we define three groups of students
based on their progress against a series of steps between the spring of eighth grade and the
completion of students’ IBDP requirements at the end of twelfth grade (Figure 5). First, we
examine the effect of IBDP participation on all students who enter the IB Cohort in the ninth
grade, regardless of whether or not those students enroll in or complete the IBDP during
eleventh and twelfth grade. 2
This is the broadest possible interpretation of who could be
considered to be in IB, and the results of this analysis represent the outcomes – on average – of
all of the students who choose to enroll in the program, regardless of persistence. This set of
outcomes is important for policymakers and those considering adopting IB programming at a
district or school level, as it represents an average effect of the program.
2 Because there are no official records of who actually applies and gets accepted to the IBDP in the ninth grade, we
take several steps to determine who those students are. First, we identify eleventh-grade IBDP students as those
who took six or more semesters of IBDP courses in their junior year, excluding students who attend the IBDP at
Lincoln Park High School. Second, we classify IB Cohort ninth graders as those students who were in multiple
freshman classrooms with students we identify as eleventh-grade IBDP students (see Appendix C and information
on our method of identifying IB Cohort ninth graders).
All 8 th graders in CPS
Enroll in an -IB cohort
Ninth Grade
Would have enrolled in an - IBcohort if they had attended a
different school
Enroll in IBDP
Withdraw from IB Cohort
College Outcomes
Eleventh Grade
Would have enrolled in IBDP
Would have withdrawn from IB Cohort
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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However, our finding that 38 percent of students who enroll in an IB Cohort in ninth grade
withdraw from IB before eleventh grade underscores how important it is to consider the
outcomes separately for those who persist through the IBDP in eleventh grade and those who
withdraw from the IB Cohort before the official curriculum begins. Building on the analysis of
the IB Cohort students, we look more closely at a second group of students who enroll in the IB
program as part of an IB Cohort in ninth grade but withdraw from the program before eleventh
grade. These students are the 38 percent – those who leave IB Cohorts before beginning the
official IBDP curriculum in eleventh grade. These students’ outcomes are also of particular
interest to parents because they help answer a critical question: what happens to students who
start but do not finish IB? Though the group of students that persists in IB is larger than the
group that withdraws, this is still critical information for students and families choosing among
high school options.
Finally, we look at a third group of students: those students who begin ninth grade in an IB
Cohort and remain enrolled in the IB program through the formal IBDP in eleventh and 12
grade. This group of students represents an important kind of best-case scenario – what
students and their families can expect if a student completes the full IBDP. Additionally, in this
third group of students, we focus on the effect of completing the IBDP, not of achieving the IB
diploma itself (for a discussion of IB diploma pass rates in Chicago, see Box 4).
Addressing Selection Bias
In addition to describing and accounting for the complex pathway high school students in
Chicago follow through the IB program from eighth to twelfth grade, our analysis must also
rigorously address how selection bias may affect our estimates of an IB effect on college
outcomes. Admission into IB programs is competitive and based on a combination of students’
elementary school grades, seventh grade test scores, a writing sample, and a parent-student
Box 2: Sample
The sample in this study is based on students who graduated from CPS between 2003 and
2009but were not classified as being in special education programs or attending alternative
high schools or charter high schools. This sample includes 85,663 graduates in 122 high
schools. Of the 2003-2009 graduates, 60 percent were female and 40 percent were male.
Also, 48 percent of students were African American, 34 percent were Latino, 6 percent
were Asian/Pacific Islander, and 12 percent were white. In our analyses of college retention,
we further restrict our sample to students who immediately enrolled in a four-year college
after high school and include only cohorts 2003 through 2007 (the cohorts for which we can
examine two-year persistence rates).
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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interview. From the perspective of school-based IB coordinators, these admissions
requirements ensure that a strong, talented pool of students enters the IB program each year.
From a research standpoint, these admissions requirements and the fact that IB students had
to make an active choice to participate in the program ensure these students are by definition
higher-achieving than the average CPS student. They may also be more likely to possess other
unmeasured characteristics (e.g., high motivation, strong achievement orientation) when
compared with CPS students of similar ability levels who did not enroll in an academically
advanced program. Absent an effort to address how the selection of students into the IB
program might affect those students’ eventual outcomes, we run the risk of attributing a
student’s success or failure to the IB program, when in fact differences in student outcomes
could be due to other factors such as student motivation. To address the issue of selection into
IB, we use a variation on propensity score matching to establish appropriate comparison groups
of students.
Ordinarily, a single propensity score would be enough, but this analysis is complicated by two
factors. First, although students are accepted into the program in ninth grade, the official
coursework for IBDP does not actually begin until eleventh grade. This means that although
these students take their classes together and have a curriculum designed to prepare them for
IBDP, their outcomes cannot be specifically attributed to the IB Diploma Progamme, as it is
defined internationally. Second, the significant issue of program attrition in the intervening
years means that not all students who enroll an IB Cohort in the ninth grade receive the full
IBDP effect. In fact, withdrawal from the program could potentially harm their high school
trajectories.
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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Box 3: Two-Stage Propensity Score Matching
We investigated a variety of ways to build an appropriate comparison group for students in
the IBDP. In the end, we used a multi-stage propensity scoring method for reducing
selection bias in our analysis. First, we reduced our initial sample of CPS eighth-graders to
those with qualifications necessary to be eligible for enrollment in IBDP (ITBS Stanine 6 or
above).
Using this reduced sample, we estimated the propensity for enrolling in the IB Cohort in the
ninth grade using eighth-grade achievement and demographic information, as well as
elementary school fixed effects (see Appendix D for more information on what is included
in each of our propensity models). Based on this propensity score, we then created a
matched sample, wherein we matched each student classified as part of the IB Cohort in
ninth grade to a student who had the same baseline characteristics but did not enroll in the
program because he or she attended a high school without the IBDP. This comparison
serves as the basis for our first outcome model, which measures the effect of simply
enrolling in the IB cohort.
Next we created a second propensity score: the propensity for a student enrolled in a IB
Cohort in the ninth grade to enroll in IBDP in the eleventh grade. For this second propensity
score model, we included an indicator of students’ eighth-grade test scores relative to the
eighth-grade test scores of other students in the high school they attend, an indicator of
their test score relative to other students that were in the elementary school they came
from, as well as the average test scores of the elementary school that they came from,
compared with the CPS average. We found that students who are likely to be in the IB
Cohort in ninth grade are not necessarily the same students who are likely to be in the IBDP
by the junior year. Moreover, we found that race/ethnicity operates quite differently for
enrolling in the IB Cohort versus staying in IBDP. That is, while white and Latino students are
only slightly more likely than African American students to enroll in the IB cohort in the
ninth grade, they are far more likely to stay enrolled in IBDP by junior year. Using this
second propensity score, we were able to simulate the probability of a student in our
comparison group withdrawing from the IB cohort or enrolling in the IBDP in the 11th
grade. Thus, we can engage in a second round of matching: students who actually withdrew
from the IB cohort with students who would have withdrawn, according to our simulations;
and students who enrolled in the IBDP with students who would have enrolled, according to
our simulation. These two sets of comparison groups form the samples that we use to
measure the effect of withdrawing from and remaining in the IB Cohort.
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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A Descriptive Look at College Enrollment and Persistence
Before we attempted to rigorously analyze the college persistence rates of IBDP students, we
looked descriptively at the college enrollment rates of IB Cohort and IBDP students (ninth and
eleventh grade) who graduated from CPS in 2003-2009. We found that the majority of IB
Cohort students (59 percent) enrolled in a four-year college and an additional 13 percent
enrolled in a two-year college (Table 2). A surprising number of IB Cohort ninth-graders
students (29 percent) did not enroll in any college immediately after graduating from high
school. Given the qualifications of many of these students by the time they graduated, we
would expect them to attend more selective four-year colleges. However, under one-quarter
(24 percent) attended a Selective or Very Selective four-year college. Our college selectivity
categories are based on Barron’s college competitiveness ratings (see Appendix D for details on
Barron’s categories).
The college enrollment patterns of students who were in the IB Cohort as of freshman year look
better than those of high-achieving students not in the IB Cohort (49 percent enrolled in a four-
year college and 15 percent enrolled in a selective four-year college). Despite different college
outcomes, IB students did not have grossly different GPAs or ACT scores. The GPAs and ACT
scores of even the IBDP students were only one half of a standard deviation above the
population of students who scored at Stanine 6 or above on their ITBS.
Table 2: Descriptive Outcomes
CPS Stanine 6 or
Above
(N=13,598)
IB Cohort
(N= 2,589)
IBDP in 11th grade
(N=1,888)
ACT Composite 19.9 20.7 21.3
Cumulative GPA at the End
of Senior Year 2.51 2.49 2.73
No College 36% 29% 23%
Two-Year College 15% 13% 8%
Four-Year College 50% 59% 69%
Selective Four-Year College 31% 40% 48%
Two-year Persistence in a
Four-year College (2003-
2007 only)
64% 71% 75%
Note: Students included in this table graduated from high school in 2003-2009. Students who were in special
education, alternative high schools, or charter high schools were not included in these analyses. Students in the
“CPS Stanine 6” group were not in the IB Cohort in ninth grade or in a Lincoln Park IBDP in the ninth grade.
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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When examining the persistence rates of IB Cohort students who enrolled in a four-year college
immediately after graduating from high school (graduating cohorts 2003-2007), we found that
the majority (75 percent) stayed in college two years after starting (Table 2; see Appendix E for
more information on how we measure college persistence). This rate was 11 percentage points
above the average rate of students with high test achievement (64 percent). We also examined
two-year persistence rates of IBDP students by the college type. IBDP students who attended
more selective colleges had a higher two-year persistence rate (80 percent for those attending
a very selective or a selective college) compared with IBDP students who enrolled in less
selective colleges (65 percent attending a Somewhat Selective or a Nonselective college).
After Controlling for Selection, IBDP Students Have Better College Outcomes than
Similar Students
We run three different set models for our three outcomes (four-year college enrollment,
selective college enrollment, and college persistence) on our three sets of comparison groups
in an effort to fully capture the different ways in which different types of participation in IB
programming could impact students’ postsecondary outcomes (see Appendix F for information
on these models).
Our first set of outcomes compares all students who enrolled in the IB Cohort in the ninth grade
– regardless of persistence – to a matched comparison group. Even in this analysis, when we
start to rigorously estimate the effects of IB participation, we find large effects (Figure 6). We
find significant positive effects on rates of enrolling in a four-year college, enrolling in a more
selective college and staying enrolled in a four-year college for two years (for full results from
our models, see Appendix F). That is, students who enrolled in the IB Cohort in ninth grade,
regardless of whether or not they remained in IBDP through eleventh grade or completed the
Diploma Programme, were still more likely to enroll in a four-year college, more likely to enroll
in a more selective four-year college, and more likely to stay enrolled in a four-year college than
similar students who never enrolled in the IBDP at all.
Working to My Potential: The Postsecondary Experiences of CPS Students in IBDP
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Figure 6: Enrolling in Pre-IBDP in the 9th Grade, Regardless of Persistence in the Program,
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CONSORTIUM ON CHICAGO SCHOOL RESEARCH
RUANDA GARTH MCCULLOUGHCo-Chair Loyola University
MATTHEW STAGNERCo-Chair Chapin Hall Center for Children
Institutional Members
CLARICE BERRYChicago Principals and Administrators Association
JEAN-CLAUDE BRIZARDChicago Public Schools
JENNIFER CHEATHAMChicago Public Schools
CHRISTOPHER KOCHIllinois State Board of Education
KAREN G.J. LEWISChicago Teachers Union
Individual Members
VERONICA ANDERSON Communications Consultant
ANDREW BROYIllinois Network of Charter Schools
NOEMI DONOSOChicago Public Schools
AMIE GREERVaughn Occupational High School-CPS
RAQUEL FARMER-HINTONUniversity of Wisconsin, Milwaukee
REYNA HERNANDEZIllinois State Board of Education
TIMOTHY KNOWLESUrban Education Institute
DENNIS LACEWELLUrban Prep Charter Academy for Young Men
LILA LEFFUmoja Student Development Corporation
PETER MARTINEZUniversity of Illinois at Chicago
GREGORY MICHIEConcordia University of Chicago
LISA SCRUGGSJenner and Block
LUIS R. SORIAEllen Mitchell Elementary School
BRIAN SPITTLEDePaul University
KATHLEEN ST. LOUISProject Exploration
AMY TREADWELLChicago New Teacher Center
ARIE J. VAN DER PLOEG American Institutes for Research
JOSIE YANGUAS Illinois Resource Center
KIM ZALENTBusiness and Professional People for the Public Interest
DirectorsELAINE M. ALLENSWORTHInterim Executive DirectorConsortium on Chicago School Research
MELISSA RODERICKHermon Dunlap Smith ProfessorSchool of Social Service AdministrationUniversity of Chicago
PENNY BENDER SEBRINGFounding Director Consortium on Chicago School Research
Steering Committee
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OUR MISSION The University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research (CCSR) conducts research of high technical quality that can inform and assess policy and practice in the Chicago Public Schools. We seek to expand communication among researchers, policymakers, and practitioners as we support the search for solutions to the problems of school reform. CCSR encourages the use of research in policy action and improvement of practice, but does not argue for particular policies or programs. Rather, we help to build capacity for school reform by identifying what matters for student success and school improvement, creating critical indicators to chart progress, and conducting theory-driven evaluation to identify how programs and policies are working.