WORKING TITLE: Development in a Changing Climate or A Changing Climate for Development World Development Rep 2010
Jan 26, 2016
WORKING TITLE: Development in a Changing Climate
orA Changing Climate for Development
World Development Report
2010
A call to action
Climate change is one of many challenges facing developing countries…
..but unless it is tackled soon, it will reverse development gains and exacerbate inequalities.
“Climate-smart” development is needed and can be achieved.
Rich countries must take leadership on climate action now, but we can’t succeed without the active cooperation of middle-income countries.
The science is incredibly strong and verified
Surface and tropospheric temperatures increasing Atmospheric water vapour increasing Ocean heat content increasing … … sea level rise directly linked and probably cyclone/hurricane intensity Glaciers and snow cover decreasing Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets losing mass with … … Arctic Sea ice extent decreasing—VERY RAPIDLY!!!! Area of seasonally frozen ground decreasing More intense and longer droughts Frequency of heavy precipitation events and floods increasing Extreme temperatures increasing Monsoon patterns changing
Unequivocal
Manning, IPCC, WGI, 2007
Why Climate Change is a Serious Development Issue
In this decade over 3 billion people in developing countries are likely to be affected by climate related disasters
People in developing countries are affected at more than 20 times the rate of those in developed countries
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Nu
mb
er
aff
ec
ted
(M
illio
ns
)
Dev'ed
CIT
Dev'ing
LDC
All countries are vulnerable to climate change but the poorest countries and the poorest people within them are most vulnerable. They are the most exposed and have the least means to adapt.
Source: World Bank analysis based on CREDA data.
Climate Change and the Bank
Climate Change and the Bank
Carbon Finance– Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) in 1999 – capped at $180M– Now 10 funds and over $2 billion under management– Carbon Partnership Facility (CPF) – go programmatic
Engage both buyers & sellers – target $5 billion
Clean Energy Investment Framework (CEIF)– A call for the Bank’s engagement in three climate pillars
Energy Access Clean Energy for Development Climate Resilient Development (Adaptation)
Climate Change and the Bank
Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)– Pilot REDD – c. $0.5 billion
IDA Replenishment– Argued that increased resources were need to
move to climate resilient development
– Accept that not all of these initiatives meet the demand that all funding come under the UNFCCC process
Climate Change and the Bank
Climate Investment Funds– Clean Technology Fund
c. $5 billion for transformational change in currently viable technologies
– Strategic Climate Fund Pilot Program for Climate Resilience – c. 0.5 billion Forest initiative Renewables initiative
Strategic Framework for Climate Change and Development (SFCCD)
The SFCCD is about development in the context of climate change
Priority of growth, poverty reduction and MDGs
Importance of meeting energy needs of developing countries
Role of development in helping to adapt to climate risks
Resource mobilization in addition to the current ODA levels
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SFCCD Pillars
1. Make effective climate action – both adaptation and mitigation - part of core development efforts
2. Address the resource gap through existing and innovative instruments for concessional finance
3. Facilitate the development of innovative market mechanisms
4. Create enabling environment for and leveraging private sector finance
5. Accelerate the deployment of existing and development of new climate-friendly technologies
6. Step-up policy research, knowledge management and capacity building
Sustainable Development @ The World Bank
Climate Change Matters for Development
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Stabilizing CO2 concentrations means fundamental change to the global energy and land use systems.
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1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300
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Historical EmissionsGTSP_750GTSP_650GTSP_550GTSP_450GTSP Reference Case
Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions
Historic & 2005 to 2100
1750-2005 300 GtC
GTSP Ref 1430 GtC
750 ppm 1200 GtC
650 ppm 1040 GtC
550 ppm 862 GtC
450 ppm 480 GtC
Projected Impacts of Climate Change
Stern, 2006
Climate change cannot be tackled without developing countries
Development matters to climate change
The past…rich countries responsible for about 60% of GHGs stocks
The future…half GHGs flows are now from middle-income countries and that share will grow.
Costs of controlling emissions rise if we delay; the sooner all countries participate, the lower the total costs
The basis for a global deal
GHG stabilization costs for 550 ppm target, relative to ‘first best’
ScenarioGlobal
costnon-Annex I
share of costs
Annex Ishare of
costsnon-Annex I
costAnnex I
cost
Immediate action by all $1.00 0.72 0.28 $0.72 $0.28
Delayed action for developing countries:
2020 $1.47 0.38 0.62 $0.56 $0.91
2035 $1.69 0.34 0.66 $0.57 $1.12
2050 $2.39 0.28 0.72 $0.67 $1.72
The precautionary principle
The case for (in)action is not just about discount rates…
Also about irreversibility, tipping points, extreme events and sustainable development
– 50% chance of warming above 2oC even with concentrations at 450 ppm CO2e
– Above 2oC, real danger of irreversible changes
Danger is real, particularly for poorer countries…
Objectives and Value Added of the WDR 2010
Objectives
Inform development policy: Climate change does represent a changing climate for
development
Inform climate policy: Unless development realities are integrated into climate
change agreements, such agreements will fail
Refocus the vision of sustainable development: Increase understanding of how development policy should be designed in a greenhouse world
Value added
Focus on development
Integrate adaptation and mitigation
Present evidence that the elements of a deal exist
Highlight development opportunities in the changing competitive landscape – and how to seize them
Proposed Outline
Part I. Climate-Smart Development Policy
The land and water challenge - Managing competing demands and creating new opportunities
The energy challenges - Managing competing objectives and creating a new comparative advantage
Managing human vulnerability - helping people help themselves
Where we are headed – crop yield by 2080
Agro-Economic Vulnerability to Future Climate Change
Nature, 2008Water: More crop per drop" (E. Marris, 3-21-08)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Emissions Mitigation ScenarioEmissions Mitigation Scenario
Page 27Source: Gurgel et al. 2007
Policy Scenario includes a cumulative reduction of emissions of 40% Policy Scenario includes a cumulative reduction of emissions of 40% from 2012 to 2100, where limits on fossil fuel usage spurs biomass from 2012 to 2100, where limits on fossil fuel usage spurs biomass conversion.conversion.
Part II. Development-Smart Climate Policy
An International Architecture for Climate change and Development
Harnessing Finance and Market Instruments for Mitigation and Adaptation
Harnessing Innovation and Technology Diffusion for Mitigation and Adaptation
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6
7
8
9
10
11
12
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
Total R&D (left axis) Energy R&D (right axis)
Development public R&D expenditure (in OECD)
in b
illio
n $
Source: DoornboschSource: Doornbosch, 2006, 2006
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The near-term challenge of scale
CO2 Storage—550 ppm Stabilization Case
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10
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Monitored CO2 Storage Today 2020 (550 ppm)
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Monitored CO2Storage Today
2020 (550 ppm) 2050 (550 ppm) 2095 (550 ppm)
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The mid- and long-term the challenge
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10
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60
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80
Monitored CO2 Storage Today 2020 (550 ppm)
Mil
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CO2 Storage—550 ppm Stabilization Case
Cross cutting themes
• Changes in ecosystem composition• Wetland migration• Invasion, extinction and simplification
• Purchase of insurance
• Construction of house on stilts• Water conservation
• Changes in farming practices• Changes in insurance premiums• Purchase of air conditioning
• Early-warning systems• New building codes, design standards• Incentives for relocation
• Compensatory payments, subsidies• Enforcement of building codes• Beach nourishment
Natural Systems
Human Systems
Pu
bli
cP
riv
ate
Source: Based on Klein 1998: IPCC 2001
Anticipatory Reactive
Adaptation
• Manage for resiliency• Conserve gene pools• Manage for change
• Changes in ecosystem composition• Wetland migration• Invasion, extinction and simplification
• Purchase of insurance
• Construction of house on stilts• water conservation
• Changes in farm practices• Changes in insurance premiums• Purchase of air conditioning
• Early-warning systems• New building codes, design standards• Incentives for relocation
• Compensatory payments, subsidies• Enforcement of building codes• Beach nourishment
Natural Systems
Human Systems
Pu
bli
cP
riv
ate
Source: Based on Klein 1998: IPCC 2001
Anticipatory Reactive
Adaptation and Surprise
Complex systems: inherently hard to predict “Data sparse, theory limited, surprise normal” Climate change will interact with multiple stressors in
unexpected ways Increasing global prosperity Demographic and Public health challenges Urbanization and Rural-urban migration Coastal vulnerability (floods, storm surge, sea level)
Part III Achieving climate-smart decisions
Global problem, local action: effective national and community-level actions
Getting to decisions - Managing the politics and social-psychology of climate change
Getting to good decisions – institutions and information; Adaptive policies and governance
Recent “Climate Governance and Development Conference” in Berlin will be a key input
Characteristics of adaptive policies:Characteristics of adaptive policies:- in-built adjustment mechanisms- in-built adjustment mechanisms- interactive decision-making and learning- interactive decision-making and learning- decentralized (subsidiarity)- decentralized (subsidiarity)- encourage self-organization and - encourage self-organization and
networksnetworks- provision of review mechanisms- provision of review mechanisms
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When two elephants fight…
…it is the grass that gets hurt
Feedback Sought
Storyline & key messages Doom & gloom or vision & opportunity
Climate change as an opportunity: REDD, land-based emissions
Bottom-up adaptation approaches; top-down incentives
Case studies – good and bad
HOW TO MAKE IT HAPPEN, AND IN TIME…. Where “IT” is adequate, acceptable and achievable?
Can (should) the WDR be neutral to the negotiations?
Some other ‘food for thought’
How can the emissions cuts be achieved while leaving space for development and time for technological and lifestyle changes?– Role of CDM – Global 2 tCO2/person cap and trading of these
rights
Should we keep working for a 450ppm stabilisation (2ºC) while also preparing for a 550+ppm (3 to 4ºC)?
Some other ‘food for thought’
Can a momentum for change be sustained in the face of other pressures (e.g. food and finance crises)
If there are so many win-wins out there for climate change and development, why haven’t they been taken up already?
Some other ‘food for thought’
What is the best role for the WDR with respect to the UNFCCC process and Copenhagen?
What constitutes a fair outcome?– Natural debt of the North v financial debt of the
South– Within nation equity
Is ‘Adequate, Achievable and Acceptable” a more pragmatic approach?
Thank you
www.worldbank.org/environment World Bank environment website
www.worldbank.org/climatechange World Bank climate change website
www.carbonfinance.org World Bank carbon finance website
www.worldbank.org/climateconsult Global Consultations towards a Strategic Framework on Climate Change and Development for the World Bank Group
www.worldbank.org/cif Climate Investment Funds dedicated website
www.worldbank.org/EnvironmentMatters Environment Matters 2007 focuses on theimmediate necessity for developingcountries to begin adapting to climate change
www.worldbank.org/devoutreach Development Outreach on climate change
www.worldbank.org/idaandclimatechange IDA and Climate Change paper
Advisors
J. Schellnhuber (PIK) N. Nakicenovic (IIASA) JC. Hourcade (France) G. Heal (Columbia) J. Weyant (Stanford) Zhou Dadi (China) C. Nobre (Brazil) C. Juma (Harvard) N. Adger (East Anglia) S. Huq (IIED) J. Holdren (Harvard) R. Watson (DEFRA, UK Govt)