Working Lunch! NACAA: July 17, 2007 Grand Rapids, MI Dave Beede Dept. Animal Science Michigan State University.

Working Lunch!Working Lunch!

NACAA: July 17, 2007NACAA: July 17, 2007Grand Rapids, MIGrand Rapids, MI

Dave BeedeDept. Animal Science

Michigan State University

Environmental Environmental Opportunities for Animal Opportunities for Animal

Agriculture:Agriculture:Extension’s Critical RoleExtension’s Critical Role

Dave BeedeDave Beede

Two Questions ?Two Questions ?• What are

current and future environmental opportunities for animal agriculture?

• What should be and/or are Extension’s roles?

http://www.mdr.msu.edu

OverviewOverview• Working Lunch

• Two Questions (handout)

• ‘Systems Thinking’ in farms?

• Criteria for Evaluation of Agriculture Systems

• Potential Climate Revenue Centers, Market Opportunities

• Applied Research?

• Extension’s Current and Future Role

Animal FarmAnimal Farm

??

Animal FarmAnimal Farm

??

Animal Farm……..Animal Farm……..

Dairy Farm (System)Dairy Farm (System)

MSU Extension Dairy Team, 2006

Dairy Production SystemDairy Production System

http://www.mdr.msu.edu

Production SystemsProduction Systems• Industry:

– Straight line production process• Raw materials product replacement over time• Highly efficient operations• Little waste material resulting from process

• Agriculture:– Circular flow of nutrients (cycle)– Products and wastes leave cycle

• May re-enter cycle– Human/societal waste, food residues, etc.– Raindrops collect gases and particulates from air

• Sustainable (systemic), but not perpetual

Industry vs. Agriculture

Hoshiba, S. 2002. In: Greenhouse Gases and Animal Agriculture

Production SystemsProduction Systems• ‘‘Industrial Agriculture’Industrial Agriculture’

– Straight line production• Import of some raw materials (feed, fertilizer, bedding)• Raw materials product exported• Quite inefficient (25 to 35% for animal products)• Large amounts of waste; e.g., dairy…….

►(240 lb intake – 90 lb milk) = 150 lb out as manure

• Accumulation of nutrients (risk)?

• Not sustainableNot sustainable

- Paradigm of industry is not directly transferable to agriculture

Industry vs. Agriculture

Hoshiba, S. 2002. In: Greenhouse Gases and Animal Agriculture

MSU Extension Dairy Team, 2006

Dairy Production SystemDairy Production System

http://www.mdr.msu.edu

methane,ammonia

methane,ammonia

methane,ammonia

methane,ammonia

NRC (2003) Committee:NRC (2003) Committee:Scientific EvaluationScientific Evaluation

Commissioned by USDA and US EPACommissioned by USDA and US EPA

Percent of Total US Air Percent of Total US Air EmissionsEmissions

NRC (2003) & Van Aardenne et al (2001)NRC (2003) & Van Aardenne et al (2001)NH3-N N2O-N NOx-N CH4-C VOCs

Source - - - - - - - - - - - - Percent of Total - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Ag & natural land 36 25 5 1 NA~?

Ag Animals 50 25 1 18 NA~?

Fossil/ biofuel burning 7 25 88 53 42

Industrial processes 0 25 1 0 49

Ag burning 4 0 3 2 5

Landfills 4 0 3 24 0

Total, Tg 2.8 0.4 7.6 30.9 24.3

1 Tg = 1 teragram = 1 million metric tonnes

ammonia, nitrous oxide, nitric oxide, methane, VOCs

The (single) farm as a The (single) farm as a system system

Crops

Animals

Manure

Feeds

FARFARMM

Farm boundary

EnvironmeEnvironmentnt

EnvironmeEnvironmentnt

In- and outflow of In- and outflow of nutrientsnutrients

Crops Animals

ManureFeeds

The farm as a system

EnvironmeEnvironmentnt

EnvironmeEnvironmentnt

Inorganic P

Meat & Milk

Emissions, runoffEmissions,

dust

Imports

Exports

The farm The farm (F-x) as a sub- as a sub-systemsystem

F-4

F-1

F-6

F-8

F-7

F-3

F-5

F-9….

F-2

Envi

ronm

e

Envi

ronm

e

ntnt

Enviro

nme

Enviro

nme

ntnt

U.S. U.S. farmsfarms Outflows

Inflows

Systems are:Systems are:

• Artificial – imposed by humans

• Hierarchical structure– Systems of lower levels are sub-systems of

higher levels– Higher systems create new entities

• e.g., trade organizations, cooperatives, markets

– Systems are embedded in an environment• Material and energy flows amongst each other• Interact with each other

The farm as a sub-system

If the System is all livestock and If the System is all livestock and crop farms, where does the crop farms, where does the

PhosphorusPhosphorus in corn distiller’s in corn distiller’s grains come from?!grains come from?!

F-4

F-1

F-6

F-8

F-7

F-3

F-5

F-9…

F-2

Specific example of systems-approach

Answer:Answer:

Specific example of systems-approach

Origin of P accumulating in U.S.-Agricultural System

Net phosphorus flowNet phosphorus flow• NotNot added to the system by corn

distiller’s grains– Just not re-distributed evenly

• Inflow of P to the system– Mined inorganic P (feed, fertilizer)– May not (does not!) counterbalance P outflow

U.S.-agricultural system

P in Distiller’s GrainsP in Distiller’s Grains• Dairy industry takes on an industrial waste Dairy industry takes on an industrial waste

product (DGs) and transforms (part of) it into product (DGs) and transforms (part of) it into a valuable product (milk).a valuable product (milk).

• Who is the Who is the polluter?polluter?

• Who is the Who is the (re)mediator?(re)mediator?

• Question:Question: Environmental cost?!Environmental cost?!

• Who is and should be responsible?Who is and should be responsible?

Criteria of evaluation?Criteria of evaluation?1. Profitability, economic efficiency

Bottom line for farms (sub-systems)

2. Input of fossil fuel (energy)

3. Environmental loadEcological sustainability or stewardship

4. Animal welfare

5. Human welfare (social benefit)

Kawakami et al., 2000.

Agricultural production systems

Criteria of evaluation?Criteria of evaluation?1. Profitability, economic efficiency

– Bottom line for farms (sub-systems)2. Input of fossil fuel (energy)

– Net addition of CO2

3. Environmental load(P, C, N; chem. species?)

4. Animal welfare5. Human welfare

(social benefit)

Agricultural production systems

Kawakami et al., 2000.

How to assess these? They may not affect bottom line directly.

Cost of environmental Cost of environmental loadload

• Time lag• Partially ‘exported’ into ‘environment’ (the

community)– Who is responsible for cost of environmental ‘clean

up’? e.g., from EtOH production?– Up-front cost (prevention) cheaper?– How is farmer paid for compliance?– Cheap food policy vs. environmental protection??– Climate/ environmental market potential for

farmers?

Agricultural production systems

Dynamic over timeDynamic over timeThe farm as a

subsystem

Enviro

nm

e

Enviro

nm

e

nt

ntEnvironment

Environment

Exploring the Environment:N-S-P-E-C-T

System

TechnologicalTechnological•Energy•Military

•Information and Media•Mech., Transport &

Manufact.CulturalCultural

•Lifestyle, Leisure & Entertmt

•Religion & Spirituality•Literature and Art

•Fashion•Ethics

EconomicEconomic•Taxation

•Global Trade•Income Distribution

•Inflation & Interest Rates

PoliticalPolitical•Prevailing Ideologies•Forms of Government•Political Leadership

•Constitution

SocialSocial•Social Organizations

•Laws, Order & Regulations•Health, Safety & Security•Pop. Dynmcs & Employ

NaturalNatural•Biodiversity•Resources

•Climate

Adapted from R. Bawden, MSU

System evolves over System evolves over timetime

• System embedded in environment

• Forces from environment– System affects environment

–N-S-P-E-C-T perspectives

• Actions within the system

• Strategy:Strategy: Actively affect Actively affect environment environment (vs. passively being affected)

Predicting the FuturePredicting the Future• Anticipate changes and developments in

the system and its environment– Goal: Prepare farm (sub-system) for future

success

• CHALLENGE: “Try to avoid getting the future wrong vs. the impossible task of getting it absolutely right.”

R. Bawden: Scenario Planning as an Experiential Exercise in Social, Reflexive and Transformational

Learning

““Prediction is very difficult, Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” – especially about the future” – Niels Niels

BohrBohr1. “Heavier-than-air machines are impossible.” –

Lord Kelvin, 1895, British mathematician, physicist, and President of the Royal Society

2. “I think that there is a world market for about 5 computers.” – Thomas Watson, 1943, Chairman of IBM

3. “We don’t like their sound. Groups with guitars are on their way out.” – Decca Recording executive, 1962, on turning down the Beatles for a recording contract

Cerf and Navasky, 1984. The Experts Speak. Pantheon Books.

Predicting the future??

Factors of future Factors of future scenariosscenarios

Predicting the future using N-S-P-E-C-T

Imp

act

UncertaintyLow Lo

w

High

High

Critical cohort of influences

R. Bawden: Scenario Planning as an Experiential Exercise in Social, Reflexive and Transformational

Learning

Examples for dairy Examples for dairy farmingfarming

Predicting the future using N-S-P-E-C-T

Domain Impact Uncertainty

Emission regulations

Land prices (biofuels influence)

Animal welfare (confinement)

Availability of feeds

Nutrient management

Use of hormones

Antibiotics

Climate profit centers, exchanges

Role of THE Extension Role of THE Extension Educator?Educator?

1. Recognizes changes progressive

2. ‘Imagine into existence’ future scenarios

3. Anticipates (N-S-P-E-C-T): social benefits, potential climate/environmental profit potential climate/environmental profit centerscenters, exchanges, etc., etc.?

~ Initiates proactive change

4. Anticipates regulations~ Initiates pro-active change

~ Mediator between farmers & scientific

community

Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)

Richard Sandor 2003

New source of revenue?New source of revenue?

CCX:monitoring, reporting,

verification

ENVIRONMENTAL CREDIT CORP.ENVIRONMENTAL CREDIT CORP.SUPPLYING ENVIRONMENTAL CREDITSSUPPLYING ENVIRONMENTAL CREDITS

TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETSTO GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS

Cows Produce Credits for Cows Produce Credits for CoalCoalaa

American Electric Power Co., (AEP) Columbus, OH

• Coal Burning: produces 145 million tons

CO2 / year

Dairy and Swine Farms

• Dairy cow• Produces 365 m3 CH4/year;

(potency: CH4 = 21x CO2 )• 5 tons of CO2 equivalent; or 5 CO2 credits/year

• Via Anaerobic Digestion farms capture and destroy 5

CO2 credits/year per cow; burn methane for power

- - - - - - a a Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2007Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2007

Cows Produce Credits for Cows Produce Credits for CoalCoalaa

American Electric Power Co., (AEP) Columbus, OH

• Coal Burning: produces 145 million tons

CO2 / year

• AEP to buy 600,000 CO2 credits/year from

~ 200 dairy and hog farms

• 0.4% of AEPs annual global-warming emissions

• Real reductions (1 to 5%/year) mandated

Dairy and Swine Farms

• Dairy cow• Produces 365 m3 CH4/year;

(potency: CH4 = 21x CO2 )• 5 tons of CO2 equivalent; or 5 CO2 credits/year

• Via Anaerobic Digestion farms capture and destroy 5

CO2 credits/year per cow; burn methane for power

- - - - - - a a Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2007Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2007

Michigan Conservation & Climate Michigan Conservation & Climate InitiativeInitiative

• MCCI provides access to US market for C offset credits for producers & landowners (CCX)

• Joint Project: MI Assoc. Conservation Districts, MDA, Delta Insitute• Conservation tillage, permanent grass plantings, tree planting, anaerobic manure

digesters• Supported by: MI Corn Marketing & Growers Assoc., MDEQ, MFB, MNLA, PF,

USDA Farmer Service Agency, USDA NRCS--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Percent of Total US Air Percent of Total US Air EmissionsEmissions aa

NRC (2003) & Van Aardenne et al (2001)NRC (2003) & Van Aardenne et al (2001)NH3-N N2O-N NOx-N CH4-C VOCs

Source - - - - - - - - - - - - Percent of Total - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Ag & natural land 36 25 5 1 NA~?

Ag Animals 50 25 1 18 NA~?

Fossil/ biofuel burning 7 25 88 53 42

Industrial processes 0 25 1 0 49

Ag burning 4 0 3 2 5

Landfills 4 0 3 24 0

Total, Tg 2.8 0.4 7.6 30.9 24.3

1 Tg = 1 teragram = 1 million metric tonnes

ammonia, nitrous oxide, nitric oxide, methane, VOCs

Emissions measurementsEmissions measurements• Newly established

MSU Animal Air Quality Research Facilities

• Strategies to reduce CH4 and NH3 pre- and post-excretion Climate Credits

Experimental Approach

Discussion!Discussion!--------------------------------------------------------------------

Two Questions ?Two Questions ?• What are

current and future environmental opportunities for animal agriculture?

• What should be and/or are Extension’s roles?

http://[email protected]

Thanks!Thanks!