Worker Training’s Role in Montana’s Recovery: A Focus on Green Jobs and Restoration

Worker Training’s Role in Montana’s Recovery:

A Focus on Green Jobs and Restoration May 22, 2012

Barbara Wagner and Aaron McNay

Employment and Total Wage Growth, Percent Increase over Prior Year

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Montana Department of Labor and Industry

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 32007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%Employment Growth

Wage Growth

U.S. and MT Unemployment Rates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Local Area Unemployment Statistics.

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0

1

U.S.

Montana

10%

7%

Total and Payroll Employment, 2020 ProjectionsSlower Job Growth in the Future

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2000-2010, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, 2000-2010, Research and Analysis Bureau Employment Projections, 2010-2020

1 3 5 7350

370

390

410

430

450

470

490

510

Empl

oym

ent i

n Th

ousa

nds

Total Payroll

Components of GDP (2010)(Aggregate Demand)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

INVEST-MENT

PERSONAL CONSUMP-

TION70%

EXPORT BAL-ANCE

GOVERNMENT20%

Take Away Points

• Montana’s economy is in recovery.

• Expect slower job growth in the future due to reduced aggregate demand.

How do we accelerate job growth?

THE BIG QUESTION

Answer: Worker Training

Types of Unemployment

1. Frictional• Normal, good, temporary unemployment that results from workers

finding better jobs and turnover.

2. Cyclical• Unemployment due to a recession.

3. Structural• Skills mismatch between jobs and workers.

U.S. Unemployment Rate by Education Level

Source: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0Less than HS DegreeHS, no collegeLess than a Bachelor'sCollege Grads

Payroll Employment Change2007 to 2010

Projected Growth Compared to Recession Losses

OccupationEstimated Recession

Losses

Projected Statewide Annual

Job Growth, 2012 to 2020

Year that All Workers are Rehired

Carpenters -2,260 140 Past 2020

Retail Salespersons -1,174 116 2019

Construction Laborers -1,171 94 Past 2020

Bookkeeping and Auditing Clerks -791 149 2016

Cashiers -776 121 2015

Secretaries -702 15 Past 2020

Janitors and Cleaners -563 29 Past 2020

Ten Growing Occupations with Unmet Demand for Workers

Occupation

Projected Annual Growth

Minimum Training Required

Home Health Aides 96 Short OJT

Registered Nurses 72 Associate

Personal and Home Care Aides 54 Short OJT

Elementary School Teachers 52 Bachelor's

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 46Vocational

training

Medical Secretaries 31 Moderate OJTNetwork Systems and Data Communications Analysts 22 Bachelor's

Medical Assistants 22 Moderate OJT

Child Care Workers 22 Short OJT

Directing Displaced Workers into Appropriate Occupations

• Workforce training and education are needed to retrain into growing occupations that don’t have excess supply.

Excess Workers Occupations

Retail Salespeople

Carpenters or Construction Laborers

Wait Staff

Occupations that Need Workers

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing

Maintenance and Repair Workers

Lawyers?

Projected Job Growth by Education and Training Category

% of Montana

Jobs

2007 to 2010 Change

Annual Job Growth

2010-2012

Annual Job Growth

2012-2020

Year Jobs Regained

Short to Moderate

OJT55% (15,959) 2,514 2,537 2016

Long OJT or Work

Experience16% (7,415) 445 802 2020

Associate or Vocational

Degree11% 286 283 477 No losses

Bachelor’s Degree or

Higher19% (78) 608 841 2011

OJT means on-the-job training Source: Montana Employment Projections, 2010, Research and Analysis Bureau, Montana Dept

of Labor and Industry

Need Skills with the DegreeSkill Retained Workers Poor Performance

Service Orientation/ Customer Service * 35.6%

Critical Thinking 6.3% 50.2%

Operating Equipment 0.9% 14.9%

Communication 5.1% 34.5%

Following Instructions 5.1% 61.1%

Time Management 5.9% 43.5%

Safety * 11.4%

Job-Specific Technical Skills * 24.9%

Work Ethics 4.9% 46.5%

Physical Skills * 9.8%

Take Away Points

• Structural unemployment can be addressed at the state level with education and training.

• In general, more workers are needed in health care and in jobs requiring high levels of education.

• Carpenters, retail workers, and workers in other occupations will need to be retrained to fill new jobs.

• Geographical economic disparities are also a factor.

• Skills are also important.

Green Jobs and Restoration Skills

Green jobs are not a new phenomenon, but part of the ever-developing process to make production

– more efficient, – reduce costs, and – eliminate unnecessary waste

in order to make business more profitable.

• Restoration fixes the mistakes of the past, and is a subset of green

• Green jobs also include jobs that prevent future environmental damage, including those in industries that do not produce green products.

Green Jobs are Not Just a Fad

1. Increased demand for energy and other natural resources will cause price increases.

2. Consumers value ecological services.– Will demand green products– Will likely continue to use policy and regulation to keep immediate

environment clean

3. Businesses try to increase profits.– Reducing costs and unnecessary waste– Creating niche products and marketing

Need for Green Job Training

• 4.5% of all Montana jobs are green.

• Over 85% of businesses participate in some type of “green activity.”

• Growth rate is slightly faster than all jobs– 260 jobs per year

through 2020

Other Services3%

Other12%

Pro-fes-

sional and

Tech-nical Ser-vices8%

Admin-istra-tive and

Waste Ser-vices6%

Public Admin-

istra-tion11%

Trade and Transportation15%

Ag and Forestr

y3%

Manufacturing17%

Mining and

Utilities3%

Construction22%

Percent of Time in Green Work

0-49% 50-99% 100% Did not Report0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

Percent of Time Spent in Green Work

Certification and Licensure

• LEED• Water• OSHA• Pesticide Application• HVAC• Electrical• Welding• Lead Removal

• EPA/ State Environmental Agency• Equipment Operation• Architect• Environmental

Professional• Professional Engineer• Freon

14% green jobs require some type of certification or license

Restoration Case Studies:Silver Bow Creek Superfund Cleanup

• 31.5 total jobs per million of capital investment

• Some additional training was needed, but not long-term.

• Above average wages for the occupation.

Restoration Case Studies:Silver Bow Creek Superfund Cleanup

• 90% of workers lived in Silver Bow County

• Inconsistent and seasonal work pattern• Only 21% had work earnings in every quarter.• 73% of workers had earnings before and after cleanup.

• Many worked multiple jobs.• Only 13% received all of their earnings from restoration.• Over 50% of earnings came from restoration work.

Forest Restoration In Montana

• 2010 study examined the economic impacts of forest restoration spending in Montana’s economy.

• Flathead County Stewardship/Energy Conservation Landscaping Project used as a case study.

• An Input-Output model used to estimate the economic impact.

Case Studies: Forest Restoration

Per $1 Million in Forest Restoration

– 9.2 FTE Directly Involved in Forest Restoration

– 19.5 FTE Positions Total

– Nearly $600,000 Increase in Total Labor Income

– $2.3 Million Increase in Total Economic Activity

Forest Restoration In Montana

• The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act spent approximately $7.5 million for forest restoration in Montana.

• Based on the estimates developed from the Flathead case study, the $7.5 million was estimated to have generated:– 147 Full-Time Equivalent Positions – $17.6 Million in Total Economic Activity

Where to Find More Info

www.ourfactsyourfuture.org

Click on publications for Projections information.

Click on Green Jobs Survey Results for Green Jobs.

Click on Presentations for a copy of this presentation.

Where to Find Reports

• Projections: http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/admin/uploadedPublications/4543_projections.pdf

• Green Jobs, New Hire Skill Survey, and Forest Restoration: http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/?PAGEID=4&SUBID=297

• Mine Restoration: http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/admin/uploadedPublications/3669_Restoration.pdf

QUESTIONS?PRESENTATION, MONTHLY UPDATES, DATA, AND OTHER ECONOMIC

RESEARCH AThttp://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org

Barbara [email protected]

406-444-5474

Aaron [email protected]

406-444-3245