WMO/WWRP Workshop Use of NWP for Nowcasting 25 October 2011 Evaluation of the 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) as Nowcast Guidance NOAA/ESRL/GSD Curtis Alexander, Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, David Dowell, Eric James, Patrick Hofmann, Tanya Smirnova, Ming Hu, and John Brown
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WMO/WWRP Workshop Use of NWP for Nowcasting 25 October 2011 Evaluation of the 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) as Nowcast Guidance NOAA/ESRL/GSD.
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WMO/WWRP WorkshopUse of NWP for Nowcasting
25 October 2011
Evaluation of the 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) as Nowcast
Guidance
NOAA/ESRL/GSDCurtis Alexander, Steve Weygandt,
Stan Benjamin, David Dowell, Eric James, Patrick Hofmann,
Tanya Smirnova, Ming Hu, and John Brown
Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models
13km Rapid Refresh
(mesoscale)
13km RUC (mesoscale)
3km HRRR (storm-scale)
RUC – current oper Model, new 18h fcst every hour
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Experimental 3km nest inside RR, new 15-h fcst every hour
Rapid Refresh (RR) replaces RUC at NCEP in 2011 WRF, GSI with RUC features
Spring 2011 Hourly HRRR Initialization from RR
HourlyRR
LateralBoundaryConditions
Interp to 3 km grid
HourlyHRRR
15-h fcst
Initial Condition
Fields
11 z 12 z 13 z
Time (UTC)
AnalysisFields
3DVAR
Obs
3DVAR
Obs
Back-groundFields
18-h fcst 18-h fcst
1-hr
fcst
DDFI DDFI
1-hr
fcst
18-h fcst
1-hr
fcst
Interp to 3 km grid
15-h fcst
Use 1-h old LBC
to reducelatency
Use most recent IC (post-DFI)
to get latest radar info
Reduced Latency:
~2h for 2011
NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB Models
Model Version Assimilation Radar DFI Radiation Microphysics Cum
Param PBL LSM
RUC N/A RUC-3DVAR Yes RRTM/Dudhia Thompson Grell-
DevenyiBurk-
Thompson RUC
RRWRF-ARW v3.2+
GSI-3DVAR Yes RRTM/Goddard Thompson G3 +
Shallow MYJ RUC
HRRRWRF-ARWv3.2+
None: RR I.C. No RRTM/
Goddard Thompson None MYJ RUC
Model Run at: Domain Grid Points
Grid Spacing
Vertical Levels
Vertical Coordinate
Boundary Conditions Initialized
RUC GSD, NCO CONUS 451 x
337 13 km 50 Sigma/ Isentropic NAM Hourly
(cycled)
RR GSD,EMC
North America
758 x 567 13 km 50 Sigma GFS Hourly
(cycled)
HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 Sigma RR Hourly
(no-cycle)
NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB Models
Model Version Assimilation Radar DFI Radiation Microphysics Cum
Param PBL LSM
RUC N/A RUC-3DVAR Yes RRTM/Dudhia Thompson Grell-
DevenyiBurk-
Thompson RUC
RRWRF-ARW v3.2+
GSI-3DVAR Yes RRTM/Goddard Thompson G3 +
Shallow MYJ RUC
HRRRWRF-ARWv3.2+
YesMultiple Radar DA
ExperimentsRRTM/
Goddard Thompson None MYJ RUC
Model Run at: Domain Grid Points
Grid Spacing
Vertical Levels
Vertical Coordinate
Boundary Conditions Initialized
RUC GSD, NCO CONUS 451 x
337 13 km 50 Sigma/ Isentropic NAM Hourly
(cycled)
RR GSD,EMC
North America
758 x 567 13 km 50 Sigma GFS Hourly
(cycled)
HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 Sigma RR Hourly
(no-cycle)
HRRR Milestones• Inception over northeastern US
Sept 2007
• Integration into CoSPA: Aviation Users
Spring 2008
• Domain expansion to eastern US
Mar 2009
• HCPF time-lagged ensemble inception May
2009
• HRRR WRF-ARW updated to v3.1.1
Oct 2009
• Domain expansion to CONUS
Oct 2009
• HRRR WRF-ARW updated to v3.2
Apr 2010
• Forecast period extended to 15 hrs
Apr 2010
• Real-time multi-scale reflect. verification June
2010
• Parallel (shadow) retrospective system Sept
2010
• Attained ~95% reliability
Jun 2010
• Reduced latency to ~2 hrs
Dec 2010
HRRR (and RR) Future Milestones• Conversion of all output to GRIB2 format
Apr 2011
• Transition from RUC to RR parent model
Apr 2011
• DOE-funded HRRR FTP site for energy industry May
2011
• Update to WRF-ARW v3.3.1
Nov 2011
• Rapid Refresh operational at NCEP
Dec 2011
• Reflectivity data assimilation at 3 km scale 2012
• Incorporate SatCast products at 3 km scale 2012
• Assimilate Radial Velocity at 3 km scale
2012
• HRRR demo @ESRL improves
2012-2014
• Ensemble Rapid Refresh (NARRE) at NCEP
2014
• HRRR operational at NCEP
2015?
• Ensemble HRRR (HRRRE) at NCEP
2016?
Some HRRR users and applicationsAviation Weather Center (AWC): 2-D gridsFederal Aviation Administration (FAA) Command CenterNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR): 2-D, 3-D, 15-min grids
Operational evaluation in CoSPAStorm Prediction Center (SPC): 2-D grids
Operational severe weather forecasting and evaluationNational Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL): 2-D, 3-D and 15-min grids