WMO Tropical CycloneTropical Cyclone Earlyygy Warning System · WMO OMM Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Tropical CycloneTropical Cyclone Earlyygy Warning System

World Meteorological OrganizationWMO OMM

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

OWMOTropical CycloneTropical Cyclone

Early Warning Systemy g y

Koji K roi aKoji Kuroiwa

Tropical Cyclone ProgrammeWorld Meteorological Organization

For (TBC) 1 E.B Manaenkova / C. BlondTC-42 Singapore, January 2010The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

Outline of the PresentationWMO OMM

Outline of the Presentation

Overview of the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme p y g(TCP) and the Early Warning System

Priority issues to be addressed

New aspect of TCP - multi-hazard approach

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

Statistics of Natural DisastersWMO OMM

Statistics of Natural Disasters

2.663

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Millions of casualties per decade

1.73

1 5

2

2.5Hydrometeorological

0.050.17

0.39

0.65

0.22 0.25

0.67

0.220.5

1

1.5

056-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

decade

Di t ib ti f t l di t T d i di t l t d l f lif

(Source: EM-DAT, OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database)

Distribution of natural disaster(World; 1974 – 2003)

Trends in disaster-related loss of life(Five decades)

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

(Sou ce , O /C te at o a saste atabase)

WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP)WMO OMM

WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP)

Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) is a scientific programme of WMO coordinating regional TC Early Warning Systems and TC Regional Committees Its originWarning Systems and TC Regional Committees. Its origin dates back to 1972.

Primary objective is to help establish national and regionally coordinated systems to minimize the loss of life and property caused by tropical cyclonesand property caused by tropical cyclones.

Scope of activity embraces;l- Meteorology

- Hydrology- Disaster Risk Reduction

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

- Disaster Risk Reduction

Global View of Tropical Cyclone OWMO OMM Occurrences

26 (31%)

5 (7%)17 (20%)

10 (12%)

10 (12%)9 (11%)

6 (8%)

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

Tropical cyclone tracks (1848-2007) and regional TC frequency and its proportion (%) to the global (1968-1990).

TC Regional Warning Centres andTC R i l C ittWMO OMM TC Regional Committees

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs; red), Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

(TCWCs; blue) and TC Regional Committees (No. of members in bracket)

Tropical Cyclone Warning ServiceWMO OMM

Cascading Warning Process

p y g

Cascading Warning Process- Data from Global Observation System

to TC Regional Centres and to gNumerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Centres;

NWP C t t id NWP- NWP Centres to provide NWP products of TC track and intensity forecasts;

- Regional Centres to make analyses &forecast and prepare regional advisories for NMCs; ;

- NMCs to issue alerts, advisories and warnings and to liaise with Disaster M Offi

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

Management Offices.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Service (cont’d)WMO OMM

p y g ( )

Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System functions 24/7 primarily on a regional basis within the framework of TC Regional Committees.Regional Committees.

Rules and procedures are established by the regional operational plans maintained by the Committees (led byoperational plans maintained by the Committees (led by RSMCs).

Early Warning Systems are Early Warning Systems are improved as needed through the regional action plans developed b th C itt t th iby the Committees at their annual/biennial sessions.

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

Challenging Issues for TCP (1)WMO OMM

Track forecast has been improved while

C e g g ssues o C ( )

Track forecast has been improved, while intensity forecast still is a serious challenge.

T k F t E (RSMC Mi i) I t it F t E

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

Track Forecast Errors (RSMC Miami) Intensity Forecast Errors

Challenging Issues for TCP (2)WMO OMM

g g ( )

Most of the members of TC Regional Committees are developing countries and LDCs/SIDSs.

Gap is widening between developing and developed countries.

Needs to develop human resources and communication capacity→ Enhancement of capacity building activities→ From GTS to WIS (WMO’s new communication infrastructure)

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

From GTS to WIS (WMO s new communication infrastructure)

New Aspect of TCPWMO OMM

New Aspect of TCP

R i l TC C itt ith t bli h d 24/7 E l Regional TC Committees with established 24/7 Early Warning System are now expected to serve as platformsfor the warning systems also for other hazards. g y

Tropical Cyclone Programme is now taking the now taking the multimulti--hazard approachhazard approach and developing links with other WMO and developing links with other WMO pppp p gp gprogrammes and int’l entities, including;programmes and int’l entities, including;

•• WMO Storm Surge Watch SchemeWMO Storm Surge Watch Schemegg-- JCOMM (Joint Commission on Oceanography JCOMM (Joint Commission on Oceanography

and Marine Meteorology)and Marine Meteorology)

•• Tsunami Early Warning SystemsTsunami Early Warning Systems-- IOC/ICGIOC/ICG

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

New Aspect of TCP (cont’d)WMO OMM

S S W h S h

New Aspect of TCP (cont d)

Storm Surge Watch Scheme

Actions were taken by all the TC Regional Bodies on the Actions were taken by all the TC Regional Bodies on the initiative of RSMCs.

TCP and JCOMM jointly TCP and JCOMM jointly hold Storm Surge Workshop for the Members of the regions.

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

New Aspect of TCP (cont’d)WMO OMM

New Aspect of TCP (cont d)

Tsunami Early Warning Systems

Cooperative relationship has bee developed between TC Regional Committees and Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICGs)Groups (ICGs).

Panel on Tropical Cyclone and ICG for the Indian Ocean T i W i d Mi i i S (ICG/IOTWS)Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWS)

Hurricane Committee and ICG for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE EWS)

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

SummaryWMO OMM

Summary

• WMO Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System is established as a collaborative framework of TC Warningestablished as a collaborative framework of TC Warning Centers and TC Regional Committees.

• Improvement of TC intensity forecast and upgrade of the warning capabilities of developing countries are major h llchallenges.

• Tropical Cyclone Programme is entering a new phaseTropical Cyclone Programme is entering a new phase through a multi-hazard approach.

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo

World Meteorological OrganizationWMO OMM

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

WMO OMM

Thank youThank youfor youryattention

The 2nd Expert Group Meeting on the Great East Japan Earthquake, December 2011, Tokyo