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New Dimensions of DRR in Asia
Kuniyoshi TakeuchiInternational Centre for Water Hazard and RiskManagement under the auspices of UNESCO
(ICHARM)Public Works Research Institute (PWRI)
Tsukuba, Japan
Asian Development Bank9 Nov 2011, Manila, Philippines
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How & why did the GEJET happen?
New dimensions of DRR in Asia
What is going to be done?
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Ohotsuku plate slippedmax 55m to SESimulation by TakashiKomura, ERI, U Tokyo
20-25m slips
14:46 JST 11 March 2011The main fault: 450km inlength and 150km in width.
@MRI
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1. Hei River, Miyako; 2. Kamaishi Harbour; 3. Fukushima Daiichi by TEPCO
Source: youtube
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EQ
Tsunami
land subsidence (116cm)
GW/hot spring in/decrease
TsunamiRefugees (82,945**)
Abandoning landBan of shipping
agricultural,livestock and
fishery products
Return of foreigners,Decline of visitors,tourists, conferences,
Stop buying agriculturalproducts
Decline ofNational &
GlobalEconomy
Political unrest
Human &propertydamages
NuclearMeltdown
Electricity
Water
Traffic
Manufacturing
MarketTrade
Communication
Roads
BridgesTransmission lines
Buildings
Transportation
Electricity shortage
Land & GWsalinization
Sea & land radcontamination
NuclearRefugees (97,183***)
Electricity/cooling
Rumors
Radiation
Facilities
D&M 19,636*
*20 Oct by NPA
**25 Aug CO*** 13 June Fk Pref
¥16-25T
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Why it happened?
Hazards were extra large: Mw9.0, run-up 38.9m,
• It was “Beyond expectation (Soteigai)”:
since 869 Jogan EQ, Guinness recorded 63m submergedseawall, 123/959 evacuation centers
“Beyond expectation” was not prepared, which
was a violation of law of living with nature.
False comfort & Black Swan events(Taleb, 2007)
Rare, difficult to identify probability but extremely large consequences
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Strong amplifier: increased
societal vulnerability Dependence on modern services Total dependence on electricity & IT.
Massive & long-distance transportation.
Interdependent supply chain Highly linked and less redundant societal activities
with nationwide & global supply chain of often
irreplaceable high-tech parts or materials inproduction system. nationwide & global impacts
This is a universal change but especially rapid in Asia
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What to do in the future (1)?
Avoid “beyond expectation” to happen.
• Prepare for the probable maximum(theoretical maximum) not only for the recentlyobserved historical maximum.
• Prepare for multi-hazards and potentialunfortunate coincidences of combined events.
(“Tsunami 3m”, crude oil + debris)
• Prepare for potential cascading events.
Aware of potential cascading hazards: natural technological (NATECHs)
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What to do in the future (2)?
Avoid concatenation (cascading events) tohappen.
• Protection of key infrastructure
• Power, traffic, communication, administration
• Lifelines, key business/industrial districts
• Redundancy & Distribution
• Redundancy/back-ups in utilities & supply chain
Failure of “just in time” production system to reduce
inventory cost
• Distributed production & management system
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Basic Law of Reconstruction
(Passed 20 June 2011) Aim: Construction of lively communities in the
mid 21st Century of Japan
Secure: safety, employment, symbioticsociety with human bondage
Establish: Reconstruction Bond, NationalReconstruction Agency (Ministers Matsumoto, Hirano)
• Seek for a new way of living with nature
• Triple-loop learning, 1st coping, 2nd adapting,3rd transforming
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Reconstructionprinciples(28 Sept 2011)
Two levels approachLevel 1 Tsunami(Frequent scale: 50-150years)
Sea walls, highways:
Level 2 Tsunami(Maximum scale: )Move to higher lands
Tall buildings to evacuateLanduse
(park, factories, farmland;commercial/ business,residential areas)
Three patterns of reconstruction plan in Iwate
Seawall
Seawall
Seawall
H W L
H W L
H W L
Evacuation Bldg
Land raising
Wave barrierBldg
Park CM/A Resd
Fact CM Resd
Resd
Land raising
Fishry
Coastal village
Seaside urban damaged
Whole urban destroyed
6 June Hokkaido Shinbun
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New Dimensions of DRR
in Asia
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Recent water-related disasters
1998 China, 2000 Cambodia 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
2005 Katrina, 2007 Sidr, 2008 Nargis
2009 Morakot , Ketsana 2010 Pakistan, China (Sichuan) , Aila (Bangla)
2011 Rio de Janeiro, Brisbane, South Africa,
Sri Lanka, Mississippi, China, Pakistan, Japan (GEJET, Kii-Peninsula ),
Thailand,
Droughts
Australia 03-09East Africa KES 11
Turkey 99.8.17Kashmir 05.10.8Wenchuan 08.5.13Haiti 10.1.11
Pakistan 11.1.18
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New Dimensions of DRR in Asia
Asia is a hot spot of global change
IncreasingVulnerability
in Asia
Climatechange
Avoid “BeyondExpectation”
to happen
Economicdevelopment
Globalization of
economy &interdependency
•Urban extension andencroachment of riskarea•Rural depopulation and
aging
•Higher standard of living.
•Valuable assets, factories.
•Distributed high-techmanufacturing•International propagationof disaster impacts
Urbanconcentration
•Torrential rains•Typhoons•Droughts etc.
No concatenationof disasters
•Higher safety for key infrastructure
•Redundancy/distribution
•Plan for worst-case scenarios
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Pressing needs in Asia (1)
Higher public awareness in disaster risk andmainstreaming of DRR in policy making
• Plan for worst-case scenarios multi-hazards, NATECs
• Question is no longer “if” but “when” worst-case
scenarios happen.• DRR should be built in part of development
• Disasters are social and risk is political.
• There is no natural disasters but they are social. Politics
decides social and economic conditions.• Make DRR a priority agenda of politicians
• High public support for politicians‟ driving DRR
• Plan political Will allocate Resource
Modified fromchair‟s summof IRDR Conf2011, Beijing
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Pressing needs in Asia (2)
Higher governance in DRR• No negligence is allowed once risk becomes known.
• Participatory approach, transparency, accountability,fairness, …
Science and Technology• Science Policy & Policy Science
• Public policy is based on evidence. Policies are onlyas good as the knowledge on which they are based.
Locally Based DRR
• High-tech tools can be useful only when they arecustomized to local context.
• Community driven approaches, „South-South‟
learning.
No action is too costly.
Modified fromchair‟s summof IRDR Conf2011, Beijing
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ICHARM‟s Challenge: LocalismDelivering best available knowledge to local practices
Local Practices
IntegratedFlood Analysis
System (IFAS)
Flood risk assessmentunder climate change
Supported by MEXT
Master CourseHazard Mapping Course
River & Dam Course
IFI
WWAP, AWDO
IFNet/GFAS
Sentinel Asia
Flood PreparednessIndicators/Standard
WWF, APWF
The1st PhaseFocus:
Flood-relatedRisk
Management
Education Research
Ph.D. Course
Supported
by JICA
UNSGAB-HLEP
IRDR
UNISDRGP-GAR
Working as a KnowledgeHub on WD through RETA
Supported by ADB
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居安思危 Be aware of risk while we are safe
思則有備 Awareness leads us preparedness有備無患 Preparedness leaves us no worry
「春秋」左氏伝
Source: Zuo Qiuming “Zuoshi Commentary”
in Confucius ed. ”Spring and Autumn”, 480BC
ICHARM cares people’s well-beingand empowerment!
www.icharm.pwri.go.jp
ICHARM preparedness for floods