This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Wisconsin’s Unemployment RatesActual and Projected
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
4.3%
5.3%5.2%
4.5%4.3%
3.7% 3.6% 3.5%3.3%
3.1%3.4%
4.4%
5.3%5.6%
5.0%4.8% 4.7%
4.9% 5.0%
0.0830000000000001
0.0890000000000001
0.075
0.062
0.0510.047
0.042
Some Things You May Not Wish To Know About Wisconsin
• Wisconsin is a low wage state.
• Wisconsin has low productivity per worker.
• Wisconsin has a low post secondary educational attainment level.
• Wisconsin is growing slowly compared to U.S.
• Wisconsin is one of fastest aging states.
Wisconsin is a Low Wage State
• Our average wage is about $38,100 per job, per year.
• We rank 32nd in wages per job.
• The national average is about $44,600.
• Minnesota ranks 14th, at $44,400, Illinois ranks 8th at $47,700.– In the late 1970s we had higher wages than Minnesota.
Wisconsin is a Low Productivity State
• Gross State Product (GSP) per job was $80,731 in 2006.
• National average GSP was $98,032.• Connecticut with the highest was $141,144.• Wisconsin ranked 42nd in productivity per job.• If Wisconsin was at the national average, we would
increase our Gross State Product by $50 billion. That’s $9,300 per person in the state!
Wisconsin’s Post-Secondary Educational Level Is Not High
• We rank 31st in post secondary educational attainment.
• We rank 30th in baccalaureate level degrees.• We rank 36th in masters or higher attainment.• We rank 9th in associate’s degrees.• We rank 11th in students majoring in science and
engineering per population. 44th in science and engineering majors in work force.
Wisconsin is a Slow Growing State
• We rank 30th in growth.
• Natural growth is particularly slow, in migration growth is not fast.
• Our growth is about 60 percent as fast as the United States, at large.
• Our present growth is likely to slow.
Wisconsin is Aging Rapidly
• The state’s baby-boom cohort is unusually large.
• Almost 31 percent of Wisconsin’s population are baby-boomers, decreasing, but slowly.
• Nationally, about 27 percent of population are baby-boomers, but decreasing rapidly.
The Demand SideOf the Labor Equation
• Three factors affecting the demand for workers:
1. The number of jobs has continued to grow, until now;
2. The demand for replacement workers is expanding;
3. The aging population needs more and more services.
Wisconsin Nonfarm Wage and Salary Jobs Until Now Have
Continued to GrowNonfarm Jobs
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
2008 -
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Wisconsin Nonfarm Wage & Salary Jobs
• Although we have been adding an average of 36,000 jobs per year, that growth will stop for the next few years. There will likely be a loss in total jobs in 2009 and again in 2010.
• There will be a few industries that will not be hit as hard as others, particularly health care.
• “Smart companies” will find ways to hold on to “smart workers”.
• Watch the economic recovery plans!
Wisconsin ResidentsTurning 65 Years Old
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
20162017
20182019
20202021
20222023
20242025
20262027
20282029
20300
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Wisconsin ResidentsTurning 65 Years Old
• We don’t know how the wealth effect will play out in retirement plans.
• Workers have been retiring earlier than 65, but plans will change somewhat.
• Older workers who lose their jobs may not return to the job market, but older workers who don’t lose their jobs will likely stay on longer.
Demand Is StrongestWhere Supply Is Weakest
1. Much of the older population lives in more remote areas.
2. Much of the tourist industry is in remote areas.
3. Manufacturing in Wisconsin tends to be in rural areas.
The Supply SideOf the Labor Equation
Five Factors Affecting Supply of Workers:
1. The number of entry level workers is diminishing;
2. There will be little increase from increased female participation;
3. There is a sizeable commuting net loss;
4. The brain drain is real;
5. Wisconsin is low in net gain from migration.
Wisconsin Births1940 to Present
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
55000
82300
97200
7720072500 72300
69289
United States Births1940 to Present
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2559000
3632000
4257850
37313863612258
4179000
4058814
Female Labor Force Participation
• Wisconsin is at the top or very nearly at the top of states per female labor force participation rates.
• Approximately 72% of females 16 years old and older participate in the labor force in Wisconsin.
• Approximately 65% of females 16 years old and older participate in the labor force in U.S.
Wisconsin has a strongly negative state-to-state commuting ratio
• Approximately 120,000 workers along Wisconsin borders cross state lines to work.
• 100,000 or those workers live in Wisconsin and leave the state to work. About 20,000 live in neighboring states and come into Wisconsin for work.
• Wisconsin borders Illinois, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota. The ratio is positive only for Iowa.
The Legendary Brain Drain is RealIndiana Fiscal Policy Institute
Net Migration
Indiana Illinois Michigan Ohio Wisconsin Kentucky North Carolina U. S. Average
67.3%
122.4%
99.4%
85.9%
75.9%
112.0%
103.1%98.2%
The Legendary Brain Drain is RealIndiana Fiscal Policy Institute
Retention
Indiana Illinois Michigan Ohio Wisconsin Kentucky North Carolina U. S. Average
57.8%
81.6%79.6%
74.8%
61.6%
80.2%
69.1%71.3%
The Legendary Brain Drain is RealMinneapolis Federal Reserve
• Approximately 12 percent of United States resident population is foreign-born. Highest level since 1920s.
• Approximately 4.2 percent of Wisconsin resident population is foreign-born.
• Some in migration from neighboring states, i.e. Illinois and Minnesota. (Kenosha and Walworth, and St. Croix and Pierce counties)
A Word of Caution• The economy is transitioning from traditional to
new.
• Recessions speed transitions
• Economies will continue to be transformed!
• It is a major mistake when economic development officials ignore or dismiss the structural changes that are being generated by the New Economy.
What is the New Economy?
• The New Economy is knowledge driven.• The New Economy is global.• The New Economy is entrepreneurial.• The New Economy is rooted in information
technology.• The New Economy is defined by innovation.• The New Economy is volatile.
What is Knowledge Activity?
• The intangible ability to use existing facts and understandings to generate new ideas.
• Knowledge is embedded in the education, experience, and ingenuity of the wielder of knowledge.
• Knowledge is the ability to use what you have learned.
• Knowledge is the value-added component of the market.
New and Old EconomiesIssue Old New
Markets Stable Dynamic
Scope of competition National Global
Organizational form Hierarchical Networked
Production system Mass production Flexible production
Key factor of production Capital/labor Innovation/ideas
Key technology driver Mechanization Digitization
Competitive advantage Economies of scale Innovation/quality
Relations between firms Go it alone Collaborative
Skills Job-specific Broad and changing
Workforce Organization Man “Intrapreneur”
Nature of employment Secure Risky
State New Economy Index Kauffman Foundation
Knowledge, Productivity, & Income
• Although education is the great predictor of wages and income, the real cause is productivity.
• Knowledge, by enabling innovation and creativity, provides the mystic value-added to the product or service. Knowledge supercharges goods and services.
• Find states with high educational attainment and you’ll usually find high productivity and high wages.