Wisconsin is Open for Business October 20, 2011 State State of of Wisconsin’s Wisconsin’s Economy Economy 1 Wisconsin Freight Rail Day 2011 Dennis Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development October 20, 2011 State of Wisconsin’s State of Wisconsin’s Economy Economy Wisconsin Freight Rail Day 2011
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Wisconsin is Open for Business October 20, 2011 Stateof Wisconsin’s Economy Wisconsin Freight Rail Day 2011 1 Dennis Winters Chief, Office of Economic.
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Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 20, 2011
StateStateof of
Wisconsin’s Wisconsin’s EconomyEconomy
1
Wisconsin Freight Rail Day
2011
Dennis WintersChief, Office of Economic Advisors
Department of Workforce DevelopmentOctober 20, 2011
State of Wisconsin’s EconomyState of Wisconsin’s Economy
Wisconsin Freight Rail Day
2011
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 20, 2011
StateStateof of
Wisconsin’s Wisconsin’s EconomyEconomy
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Wisconsin Freight Rail Day
2011
FIRST OF ALL, YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND WISCONSIN’S ECONOMY
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 20, 2011
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G.D.P. Grows at Tepid 1.9% Pace Despite Stimulus
The New York Times, July 31, 2008
U.S. Economy Grows at Solid Pace in 2nd Quarter Washington Post, July 31, 2008
Yes, Virginia, It is a Recession
Business Week, July 31, 2008
Still on the right road – The American economy has often defied predictions of its demise. It has
done so again.
The Economist, July 31, 2008
CONFUSED? NO WONDERWHO DO YOU BELIEVE
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CONFUSED? NO WONDERWHICH DO YOU BELIEVE
Home price dip extends to 4th month9:20am: Case-Shiller index declines 0.4% in January as market recovery appears to have stalled.
CNN, March 30, 2010
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Unexpectedly Climb 0.3%, Case-Shiller Says ,Home prices in 20 U.S. cities unexpectedly rose in January, indicating the housing market is stabilizing as the economy expands.
Bloomberg, March 30, 2010
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INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES FOR FOURTH MONTH• INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UNEXPECTEDLY ROSE IN
AUGUST, SIGNALING MANUFACTURING WILL SUPPORT THE WORLD’S LARGEST ECONOMY.
Bloomberg, September 14, 2011http://www.bloomberg.com/news/economy/
U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO HIGHEST SINCE JUNE • APPLICATIONS FOR U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
UNEXPECTEDLY ROSE LAST WEEK TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE THE END OF JUNE, UNDERSCORING THE RISK OF FURTHER WEAKNESS IN THE LABOR MARKET.
Bloomberg, September 14, 2011http://www.bloomberg.com/news/economy/
CONFUSED? NO WONDERWHAT DO YOU BELIEVE
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TIMINGIS EVERYTHING
“We hope to become manifestly, aggressively, stunningly bullish of equities,” Dennis Gartman, hedge fund manager and author of The Gartman Letter, said in his Monday commentary. “Until then, we are sellers of rallies.”
–USA TODAY, October 8, 2011.
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• GDP
• DJIA
• JOBS
HOW DO YOU SPELLRECOVERY?
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Real GDP Growth
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2000q1 2002q1 2004q1 2006q1 2008q1 2010q1 2012q1
Pe
rce
nt
Q/Q
Ch
an
ge
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, OEA
WHAT IS RECOVERY?GDP; Eight positive quarters, Q2 up 1.3%
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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Real Gross Domestic Product
$12,500
$12,600
$12,700
$12,800
$12,900
$13,000
$13,100
$13,200
$13,300
$13,400
$13,500
200
6-I
200
6-II
200
6-III
200
6-IV
200
7-I
200
7-II
200
7-III
200
7-IV
200
8-I
200
8-II
200
8-III
200
8-IV
200
9-I
200
9-II
200
9-III
200
9-IV
201
0-I
201
0-II
201
0-III
201
0-IV
2011
-I
2011
-II
2011
-III
2011
-IV
Bill
ions
Source: BEA, OEA
BUSINESS CYCLE SEVERESTILL NOT RECOVERED AFTER EIGHT QUARTERS