Wirtschaft Technologie Umwelt Vorstand Wilfried Kurtzke Answers of IG Metall to the Financial and Economic Crisis - Protection of Jobs - Stabilisation.

WirtschaftTechnologie

Umwelt Vorstand

Wilfried Kurtzke

Answers of IG Metall to

the Financial and Economic Crisis

- Protection of Jobs

- Stabilisation of the Economy

- Shaping the Future


Umwelt Vorstand

2Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01

Reasons of the Financial Crisis

1. Excess of capital caused by a wrong income distribution

2. Deregulation of financial markets

3. Securitization of credits –a huge risk for financial markets

4. Worldwide imbalances –the stimulation of speculation


Umwelt Vorstand


Reasons of the Financial Crisis

10,1

29,4 31,744,5

63,3

12

64

93

140

214

1980 1995 2000 2005 2010*

Sozialprodukt

Finanzvermögen

Entwicklung von Sozialprodukt und Finanzvermögen weltweit,1980-2010 in Billionen US-Dollar

Quelle: McKinsey Quarterly, January 2007, Mapping the global capital markets, S.8

Worldwide development of

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [blue bar]

and

financial capital [red bar]


Umwelt Vorstand


Economic Framework

Cyclical decline

Financial market crisis influences the producing economy

Too high dependence of foreign trade

Weak domestic economy

Result: massive collapse of foreign demandlead to a heavy recession in Germany


Umwelt Vorstand


Economy Faces Deep Crisis

The largest decline of the GDP for 80 yearsgross domestic product, annual percentage change

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, alle Zahlen vor 1992 w egen diverser statistischer Änderungen nur bedingt vergleichbar, Zahlen für 2009 und 2010 Frühjahrsprognose der InstituteGrafik: IG Metall


Umwelt Vorstand


German Economy Faces a Deep Crisis

Gross Domestic Product,2000=100, seasonally adjusted

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

1.VJ05

2.VJ05

3.VJ05

4.VJ05

1.VJ06

2.VJ06

3.VJ06

4.VJ06

1.VJ07

2.VJ07

3.VJ07

4.VJ07

1.VJ08

2.VJ08

3.VJ08

4.VJ08

1.VJ09

2.VJ09

Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Grafik: IG Metall


Umwelt Vorstand



The sharpest decline of GDP for 80 years

gross domestic product, annual percentage change

2,0 2,0

3,2

1,2

3,02,5

1,3

+1,2

-4,9to

-6,5

to -0,5

0,81,1

0,0-0,2

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Forecast

Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Prognosen der Institute im Frühjahr/Sommer 2009Grafik: IG Metall


Umwelt Vorstand



Aggregated Components of GDP 2009Forecast

annual percentage change

-17,8

-3,7

0,2

1,7

-6,5

-22,0 Investment in new equipment

Exports

Building investments

Private consumption

Public consumption

Gross domestic product

Quelle: IMK, Juli 2009 Grafik: IG Metall


Umwelt Vorstand


Crisis Reaches Labour Market

-12,7 -11,6

-8,9

-4,7

5,0 5,3

7,9 7,9 8,6

-1,8

2,2

Okt 08 Nov 08 Dez 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mrz 09 Apr 09 Mai 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09

Quelle: Bundesagentur für Arbeit Grafik: IG Metall

Rising Unemployment annual percentage change


Umwelt Vorstand


Crisis Reaches Labour Market

270.472

572.217

1.076.160

1.246.618

130.13370.983

Okt 08 Nov 08 Dez 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mrz 09

Quelle: Bundesagentur für Arbeit Grafik: IG Metall

Short-time workers


Umwelt Vorstand


A Sharp Decline of Orders

Orders in different branches organized by the IG Metall

Change July 2009/08 in percent

-16,5

-21,7

-29,5

-32,4

-40,7

-15,7

-6,4

-16,8

-21,7

DV, Elektronik, Optik

Automobilindustrie

Textilindustrie

Metallerzeugung und -bearbeitung

Metall- und Elektroindustrie

Metallerzeugnisse

Elektr. Ausrüstungen

Bekleidungsindustrie

Maschinenbau

Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Darstellung ohne sonstigen Fahrzeugbau Grafik: IG Metall


Umwelt Vorstand


Production Collapses Overall

-10,0

-11,9

-14,1

-15,3

-20,7

-23,5

-24,5

-25,2

-28,4

-31,5

-24,5

-26,4

Holzgewerbe

Möbelindustrie

Bekleidungsindustrie

Textilindustrie

Automobilindustrie

Metallerzeugnisse

Metall- und Elektroindustrie

Elektrische Ausrüstungen

DV, Elektronik, Optik

Luft-, Wasser-, Schienenfahrzeuge

Metallerzeugung und -bearbeitung

Maschinenbau

Production collapses in all branches organized by the IG Metall Change July 2009/08 in percent



Umwelt Vorstand


Economy is Going Through the Trough

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

calendar and seasonally adjusted

original data


Orders in metalworking industryIndex: 2005 = 100

July 09/ Jun 09: + 3,7%July 09/ July 08: -21,7%


Umwelt Vorstand


No dismissals –the agenda of IG Metall against the crisis

As an answer to the crises in November 2008IG Metall released seven points in orderto protect employment and to stabilise the economy

1. No dismissals

2. Protection of temporary working persons

3. Corporate financing must be guaranteed

(by banks and the government)

4. Stabilising private demand by „cash for clunkers“ (2500.- Euro for an at least 10year-old junk car)

5. Stabilising private demand by „consumption cheques“

6. Public Future Fund „Work - Education - Environment“

7. Increase of participation of workers and employees


Umwelt Vorstand


No dismissals –the agenda of IG Metall against the crisis

Still facing the crises in March 2009

IG Metall created another action program

Leaving the crises actively behind –united for good working and living conditions

1. Protection of employment in the producing economy

2. More democracy in the economy, i.e.

more participation for the working class

3. A stronger regulation of financial markets

4. The costs and burden of the crises should be paid by the wealthy


Umwelt Vorstand


Anticyclical policy of the government

The government had to act and must still act in order to stabilise the economy. The government acted unassertively. But by taking off the ideological blinkers the government decided to switch to an anti-cyclical economic policy. So it prevented a worse economic development.

An improved regulation of “short-time work” helped to reduce the rise of unemployment.

“cash for clunkers / junk cars” strengthened car sales.

Tax- and duty-reductions are not helpful to stimulate economic growth.

Instead: More public investment is the better way to generate economic growth. Especially here we need stronger efforts.Annually eight to nine billions Euro are much to less.

All in all the economic programs of the government are created not big enough and come much too late. The Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) estimates the impulses for growth of the whole package of measures only at 0.6 percentage points in this year.


Umwelt Vorstand


Assumptions of Economic Trends

GDP-Forecast 2009 bis 20134 possible trends

2008 = 100

88,0

90,0

92,0

94,0

96,0

98,0

100,0

102,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt. Ab 2009: Szenarien IG Metall

S 1: depression (91,1)

S 2: stagnation (96,2)

S 3: low growth (98,2)

S 4: high growth(101,1)

Wirtschaft Technologie Umwelt Vorstand Wilfried Kurtzke Answers of IG Metall to the Financial and Economic Crisis - Protection of Jobs - Stabilisation.

Documents

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