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Taylor St. Germain Analyst and Speaker Wire Harness Industry Economics – The Future and Now About ITR Economics Founded in 1948 Provides industry‐renowned economic intelligence to reduce risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions Content provider for IEWC’s Hotwire® monthly e‐newsletter
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Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

Aug 15, 2020

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Page 1: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

Taylor St. GermainAnalyst and Speaker

Wire Harness Industry Economics –

The Future and Now

About ITR Economics

• Founded in 1948

• Provides industry‐renowned economic intelligence to reduce risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions

• Content provider for IEWC’s Hotwire® monthly e‐newsletter

Page 2: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

Summary February 2019

Business Cycle Decline for 2019

US

GlobalSegment Thinking Into 3 Time Periods

2018 - 20202021 - 20292030 - 2040

Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses

Tariffs

Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed

Know which ones matter to you

How to track the leading indicators

First in Forecasts Since 1948

ITR Economics provides the best economic intelligence to reducerisk and drive practical and profitable business decisions.

Duration Accuracy

US GDP 24 99.7%

US Ind. Production  34 99.4%

Europe Ind. Production  24 97.2%

Canada Ind. Production  27 94.5%

China Ind. Production 30 99.9%

Retail Sales  28 99.6%

Housing (Single Family Units) 26 99.2%

Employment (private sector) 30 99.4%

2018 Preliminary Forecast ResultsIf you heard ITR around two years prior… 4

Page 3: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Rate-of-Change& Leading Indicators

Tools for Seeing the Future

7.8%8.9%

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20

First in Forecasts Since 1948

RawFeb-17 1.5Mar-17 1.5Apr-17 1.4

May-17 1.5Jun-17 1.3Jul-17 1.3

Aug-17 1.6Sep-17 1.6Oct-17 1.5Nov-17 1.7Dec-17 1.6Jan-18 1.7Feb-18 1.7Mar-18 1.7Apr-18 1.6

May-18 1.7Jun-18 1.5Jul-18 1.5

Aug-18 1.9Sep-18 1.7Oct-18 1.7Nov-18 1.9Dec-18 1.7Jan-19 1.7

3/12 Rate-of-Change

=

100 100

=.

.100 100 10.4%

3MMT

4.44.44.44.24.14.24.54.74.84.85.05.05.15.05.04.84.74.95.15.35.35.3

12MMT

18.018.218.418.618.819.019.219.419.719.820.020.220.3

12/12

26.7%25.5%25.2%22.4%20.0%18.3%15.4%12.7%

12/12 Rate-of-Change

=

100 100

=.

.100 100 12.7%

3/12

15.9%13.6%13.6%14.3%14.6%16.7%13.3%12.8%10.4%10.4%

A Powerful Management ToolRate-of-Change

Page 4: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Phase A - Recovery

Annual Sales are BELOWYear-Ago Levels, but the Rate-of-Decline is SLOWING.

Phase B –Accelerating Growth (Best)

Annual Sales are ABOVEYear-Ago Levels, and are GROWING at a RAPIDPace.

Phase C – Slowing Growth (Caution)

Annual Sales are ABOVEYear-Ago Levels, BUT the Rate-of-Growth is SLOWING

Phase D -Recession

Annual Sales are BELOWYear-Ago Levels, and are DECLINING at a RAPIDPace.

Business Cycles

7

First in Forecasts Since 1948

General Economic Outlook

Page 5: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Global Economy Enters Backside of Business CycleWorld Industrial Production Index to Various Leading Indicators

Sources: OECD, WSJ, IHS Markit, Yahoo Finance, CPB Netherlands Bureau For Economic Policy AnalysisRates-of-Change

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24

World IP - 12/12

World IP Forecast

OECD + 6 Leading Indicator - 1/12

Crude Oil Futures - 12/12

Crude Oil Forecast

JP Morgan Global PMI - 1/12

World IP, OECD + 6 Leading Indicator Crude Oil, JPM Global PMI

First in Forecasts Since 1948

3-Month Moving Average 3/12 Rate-of-ChangeQuarter-over-Quarter Growth Rate

• . • Phase: • Quarter-over-Quarter:

2019:

2020:

2021:

ITROutlook

US Economy Stalls in 2019 and Into 2020US Gross Domestic Product, SAAR, Chained 2012 $

US Gross Domestic Product

$18.7 trillionB

3.0%

0.5%

2.7%

1.1%

Source: BEA 10

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

14

16

18

20

12

14

16

18

20

Page 6: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Personal Consumption

67%

Business Investment

16%

Government Spending

17%

US GDP by Consumption

Sources: BEA, ITR EconomicsPercent

First in Forecasts Since 1948

12-Month Moving Average 12/12 Rate-of-ChangeYear-over-Year Growth Rate

• Annual Trend: • Phase: • Year-over-Year:

2019:

2020:

2021:

ITROutlook

Slowing Growth for 2019US Industrial Production Index

US Industrial Production Index

107.3B

4.0%

0.5%

0.7%

2.0%

Source: FRB

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

84

89

94

99

104

109

114

84

89

94

99

104

109

114

Page 7: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Manage the Business Cycles to Maximize ProfitsUS Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product

-6.9%

-2.9%-5.2%

-15.5%

3.9%

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

GDPUS IP

GDP

US IP

Sources: FRB, BEAYear-over-Year, Quarter-to-Quarter (3/12)

13

Manufacturing ~ 76% of Industrial ProductionMining ~ 14% of Industrial ProductionUtilities ~ 10% of Industrial production

First in Forecasts Since 1948

US and Texas Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate

Source: BEA3/12 Rates-of-Change

14

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20U.S. Texas

Page 8: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Leading Indicator System as a Powerful ToolUS Industrial Production Index to Leading Indicators

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22

US IP - 12/12US IP ForecastG7 Indicator - 1/12PMI - 1/12Wilshire Market Cap - 3/12JP Morgan Indicator - 3/12

PMI, Wilshire, G7US IP, JP Morgan

Sources: FRB, OECD, ISM, Yahoo Finance, IHS MarkitRates-of-Change

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Searching for a RecessionUS Search Interest for "Recession" on Google to US Total Retail Sales

Sources: Google, US Census BureauRates-of-Change (Search Interest has a 16 month lead time)

-24

6

36

66

96

126-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

'06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

Retail Sales

Retail Sales - 12/12

Search Interest - 3/12

3/12

12/12

Search Interest

Page 9: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

We Drink When Times are Good… and BadUS Total Retail Sales to US Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores Sales

5.2%

4.5%

-5

0

5

10

-10

0

10

20

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

StoresSales

Retail Sales

Liquor Stores

Source: Census Bureau12/12 Rates-of-Change

17

Retail Sales at Food Services and Drinking Places: up 3.8%Recreation Expenditures: up 3.5%

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Leading Indicators in Europe Signal RecessionEurope Industrial Production Index to Various Leading Indicators

Sources: Eurostat, OECD, European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Yahoo Finance, IHS MarkitRates-of-Change

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24

Europe IP - 12/12Europe IP ForecastEurope LI - 1/12Europe Economic Sentiment - 1/12DAX - 3/12Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 1/12

Europe IP, Europe LI Europe Economic Sentiment, DAX, Eurozone Manu. PMI

Page 10: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Tax Reform & Tariffs

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Democrats, Republicans, and RecessionsReal Gross Domestic Product

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Republican Democrat GDP 3/12

Source: BEA3/12 Rate-of-Change

20

Page 11: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Lower Taxes May Provide a Temporary BoostUS Top Marginal Individual Tax Rates to Real GDP Growth Rate

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Real GDP Growth Rate - 3/12 Top Marginal Tax Rate

Sources: Tax Foundation, BEA, Tax Rate - Percent, GDP - 3/12

21

Rea

l GD

P G

row

th R

ate To

p M

argin

al Tax Rate

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Freed Up Money Likely Not going to CapexUS Corporate Tax Rate and Gross Business Investment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

'60 '64 '68 '72 '76 '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16

Corporate Tax Rate %

Gross Business Investment (% of GDP)

Linear (Gross Business Investment (% of GDP))

Sources: Tax Policy Center, FREDPercent

22

22

Atlanta Federal Reserve Survey

Page 12: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

ATLANTA FED IS WATCHING…On business investment, roughly two‐thirds of respondents to our national survey…indicated that the reform wouldn't affect their capital expenditures at all. Just 15 percent said they would increase their capital spending by 10 percent or more, and those responses came mostly from smaller firms.

~ Raphael BosticAtlanta Federal Reserve Chair

Rotary Club of AtlantaJanuary 8, 2018 

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Trade Deficit Continues Downward Trend Despite TariffsUS Trade Balance for Goods and Services

-638.3-604.2

-850

-750

-650

-550

-450

-350

-250

-850

-750

-650

-550

-450

-350

-250

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

3MMT

12MMT

Source: US Census BureauBillions of dollars

Page 13: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Tariffs: There Will Be Winners and Losers

Washing Machines, 1.8Solar Panels, 8.5

Steel, 29

Aluminum, 17.4Chinese Imports Round 1, 50

Chinese Imports Round 2, 200

Proposed Chinese Imports, 267

Proposed Auto Imports, 350

China Round 1, 52.4

China Round 2, 60Canada, 12.8Mexico, 2.9Europe, 3.2Turkey, 1.8Proposed India, 1.4

Proposed Japan, 1.9Proposed Russia, 3.2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

US Tariffs Reciprocal Tariffs

$ V

alu

e

25%

10% Tariff Sep 24th

25% Tariff Jan 1, 2019

Proposed

Actual

Proposed

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Brands That Have or Will Be Increasing Prices Due to Tariffs

26Source: Business Insider, “These popular brands say Trump's tariffs will force them to raise prices”

TOYOTAWHIRLPOOLCOCA-COLAWINNEBAGOMILLER COORSSAMUEL ADAMSCAMPBELL SOUPLG ELECTRONICSGENERAL MOTORSKLEENEX & HUGGIESPOLARIS INDUSTRIESNEWELL BRANDS (Crock-pot, Rubbermaid, Yankee Candle, & Sharpie)

“I can't just go to the shareholders and say, 'You're just going to have to accept my profit's going to be $40 million less. It doesn't work that way…”

- Gavin Hattersley, CEO MillerCoors

Page 14: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Price Decline Except for SteelCommodity Prices

Source: WSJ, London Metal Exchange, BLS3/12 Rates-of-Change

-22.2% Zinc

-12.5% Alum

15.4% Steel

-13.9% Copper

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

All Others Copper & Steel

First in Forecasts Since 1948

The Long ViewProsperity in the Age of Decline

Page 15: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Issues Government Will and Won’t Tackle

Source: BEABillions of Dollars

29

$0

$375

$750

$1,125

$1,500

$1,875

$2,250

$2,625

$3,000

$0

$375

$750

$1,125

$1,500

$1,875

$2,250

$2,625

$3,000

Current Tax Receipts

Consumption Expenditures

Current Transfer Payments

Interest Payments

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Total U.S. Public Debt

Source: Usgovernmentspending.com(% of GDP)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

120.5%

30

The Long View…

Page 16: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

CBO Projection Statistics

Data Source: CBO, 2018 Long-Term Budget OutlookPercentage of GDP

A B C D E

(B+C+D)/E Net Interest HealthcareSocial

Security

TotalSpending as

% of GDP

2018 56.8% 1.6% 5.2% 4.9% 20.6%

2019 -2028

63.4% 2.7% 6.0% 5.5% 22.4%

2029 -2038

69.1% 3.6% 7.4% 6.2% 24.9%

First in Forecasts Since 1948

1. Demographics1. Demographics

2. Health Care Costs2. Health Care Costs

3. Entitlements3. Entitlements

4. Inflation4. Inflation

5. US National Debt5. US National Debt

Depression Drivers

Page 17: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

US Industrial Production Index

Source: FRBData Trends

2

4

6

8

10

12

2

4

6

8

10

12

'20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40

12MMA3MMA

12MMA

3MMA

Great Depression

Roaring 1920s (3 recessions)

First in Forecasts Since 1948

The next Great Depression is coming.The next Great Depression is coming.

Are you ready?Are you ready?

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34

Page 18: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Employment

First in Forecasts Since 1948

In Search of More and More LaborUS Private Sector Employment

88

98

108

118

128

85

95

105

115

125

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

Employment Mils of Jobs

Private Sector Employment GrowthJob OpeningsInvoluntary Part Time EmploymentQuit Rate – Rising

13.5% B1.9% B

-7.6% A

Source: BLSAnnual Data Trend

36

Page 19: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Net Migration Between States, July 2017-July 2018

Source: Census BureauDoes not include immigration into the US

+132,602-180,306

First in Forecasts Since 1948

State Population Growth Rates

Source: US Census BureauPercent Change from Population Estimates 2010 to 2018

Page 20: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Significant Pressure on Profit MarginsOverall Wage Growth

Source: FRB AtlantaPercent

0

1

2

3

4

5

'06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20

Raw Data

39

Three-month moving average of median wage growth in the overall economy of the United States. Wages are pre-tax and exclude overtime, tips and commissions. The following are also excluded: top-coded individuals, individuals whose hourly pay is below the current federal minimum for tip-based workers, and individuals employed in agricultural occupations.

First in Forecasts Since 194840

Page 21: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

The Rise of the MillennialsEmployment by Age

Source: BLS12MMA

41

14.0 (20-24)

35.4 (25-34)32.7 (35-44)32.3 (45-54)

26.6 (55-64)

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

Age 20 to 24

Age 25 to 34

Age 35 to 44

Age 45 to 54

Age 55 to 64

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Millennial Population

Source: US Census Bureau

Rank State Rank State

1 District of Columbia 42 Connecticut

2 Utah 43 Pennsylvania

3 Alaska 44 Delaware

4 North Dakota 45 New Jersey

5 Texas 46 Montana

6 California 47 Vermont

7 Colorado 48 New Hampshire

8 Massachusetts 49 Florida

9 Rhode Island 50 West Virginia

10 New York 51 Maine

TX 5

Page 22: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

CAPEX, Interest Rates& Inflation

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Favorable CAPEX TrendUS Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft

Source: Census BureauBillions of Dollars

44

4.1%6.6%

$819.2

500

750

1000

1250

1500

-60

-40

-20

0

20

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

MMTR-O-C

3/12 12/12

3MMT12MMT

Page 23: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Leading Indicators Signal Business Cycle Decline for CAPEXUS Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders to Various Leading Indicators

Sources: US Census Bureau, NFIB, FRB, Industry for Supply Management, WSJRates-of-Change

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24

New OrdersNew Orders ForecastSmall Business OptimismUtil. Rate - 1/12PMI New OrdersUS Copper Futures

New Orders, Small Business, Util. Rate PMI New Orders, Copper

First in Forecasts Since 1948

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20

Yield on 10 Year Treasury NoteSource: FRB

?

Protectionism & Future US Bond Yields

Page 24: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2018 2019 2020 2021 Longer Run

Fed Open Market Committee

FOMC Member Interest Rate Projections

Source: FRB

December 2018

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Budget for Higher Prices, but Take Caution Not to Budget Linearly

US Consumer Price Index to US Producer Price Index

1.9%1.4%

-10

-5

0

5

10

-10

-5

0

5

10

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

Consumer Price

Producer Price

Source: BLS1/12 Rate-of-Change

48

Page 25: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Industry Drivers

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Activity in Production Expected to Rise Into 2020US Civilian Aircraft Equipment Production

2.7%-4.5%

110.8

60

85

110

135

160

185

210

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

MMAR-O-C

3/12 12/12

3MMA12MMA

Source: FRB2012 = 100

Page 26: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Plan for Rise in Production Through 2019US Medical Equipment & Supplies Production Index

-0.8%-2.8%

92.5

65

85

105

125

145

165

185

205

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

MMAR-O-C

3/1212/12

12MMA3MMA

Data Source: FRB2012 = 100, N3391

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Do Not Plan for Significant Growth Opportunities During 2019 North America Light Vehicle Production to US Light Vehicle Retail Sales

Sources: Wards Auto 12/12 Rates-of-Change

-0.4%0.4%

-50

-25

0

25

50

-20

-10

0

10

20

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

ProductionSales

Sales

Production

Page 27: Wire Harness Industry Economics The Future and Now...2021 -2029 2030 -2040 Global Issues Impacting Our Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Expect New Orders to End 2019 Near the 2018 LevelUS Electrical Equipment New Orders

Source: US Census BureauBillions of Dollars

1.6%3.0%

36.7

25

50

75

100

-60

-30

0

30

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

MMTR-O-C

3/12 12/12

3MMT 12MMT

2019: 0.4%

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Slowing Growth Will Characterize New Orders in 2019US Computer & Electronic Products New Orders

6.4%7.1%

$276.9

225

325

425

525

625

-60

-40

-20

0

20

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

MMTR-O-C3/12

12/12

3MMT

12MMT

Source: FRBNAICS 334, Billions of $

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First in Forecasts Since 1948

Internal Trends Suggest Growth Into 2H19US Agriculture, Construction and Mining Machinery Production Index

Source: FRB2012 = 100

55

13.5%11.4%

$76.2

40

70

100

130

160

190

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

MMAR-O-C

3/12 12/12

3MMA 12MMA

First in Forecasts Since 1948

Summary

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First in Forecasts Since 1948

Phase A - Recovery

Annual Sales are BELOWYear-Ago Levels, but the Rate-of-Decline is SLOWING.

Phase B –Accelerating Growth (Best)

Annual Sales are ABOVEYear-Ago Levels, and are GROWING at a RAPIDPace.

Phase C – Slowing Growth (Caution)

Annual Sales are ABOVEYear-Ago Levels, BUT the Rate-of-Growth is SLOWING

Phase D -Recession

Annual Sales are BELOWYear-Ago Levels, and are DECLINING at a RAPIDPace.

Business Cycles

2018 2019

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