WIOD (World Input-Output Database): Brief Overview of Data Construction Activities in WP3 Bart Los Faculty of Economics and Business University of Groningen (WIOD Consortium Meeting Sevilla, 25-27 May, 2011) This project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme, Theme 8: Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities. Grant Agreement no: 225 281
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WIOD (World Input-Output Database): Brief Overview of Data Construction Activities in WP3
This project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme, Theme 8: Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities. Grant Agreement no: 225 281. WIOD (World Input-Output Database): Brief Overview of Data Construction Activities in WP3. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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WIOD (World Input-Output Database): Brief Overview of Data Construction
Activities in WP3
Bart LosFaculty of Economics and Business
University of Groningen
(WIOD Consortium Meeting Sevilla, 25-27 May, 2011)
This project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme, Theme 8: Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities.
Grant Agreement no: 225 281
Deliverables (Period 1)
3.1 Panel of preliminary International Supply and Use Tables with use broken down by origin domestically produced or imported (by partner country)
3.2 Time-series of preliminary World Input-Output Tables with use broken down by origin
Period from 1995 to 2006 40 countries 35 industries and 59 products
Scheduled for month 12, delivered in month 17
National Supply and Use Table (output of WP1)
Total
Rest of World
Total supply by product (S)
Total input by industry
Imports (M)
Value added (VA)
Exports (E)
Total use by
product (U)
Industry Domestic supply
(SD)
Total output by industry
(GO)
Product
Intermediate use (I) Domestic final use (F)
Supply Intermediate use Final useProduct Industry
Includes use of imported products
International Supply and Use Table (for country A)
Rest of World (RoW)
Final use
Output
Total supplyValue added
Total use of imports
Intermediate use of
imports
Re-exports
of imports
Total use of
domestic output
Domestic final use of
domestic output
Total SupplyProduct
Intermediate use
Industry
country A
Industry Domestic
supply
Product
Rest of World (RoW)
Domestic final use of imports
country A
Product Intermediate use of
domestic output
Imports
Exports
Problems in Previous Versions of the Dataset (I)
Row and column sums were not always equal: has been solved, problem was due to mistake in aggregation of various consumption categories and various investment categories;
Domestic use of intermediates derived as residual (total use minus estimated imports), in limited number of cases negatives appeared. Due to split of imports by end use. If imports of
intermediates (in trade data) are very high, they could exceed total use in one or more using industries;
Problems in Previous Versions of the Dataset (II)
Solution (for now): assume that import ratios are uniform across all using industries and final use categories.
Negatives only appear if total imports exceed total use minus exports. Solution: difference is assumed to be due to re-exports (e.g. imports of electronics into the Netherlands). In such cases, domestic use = 0…
Next step, use of information (if available) from benchmark import transactions tables and/or benchmark imported use tables in GRAS-like procedure (see below).
Problems in Previous Versions of the Dataset (III)
Negative Exports to “Rest of the World” 1995: 28% of entries 2006: 36% of entries
Cause: Determination of exports to ROW as residual (total exports from Use table – exports to WIOD countries). Various inconsistent sources of trade data
Attempt at solution: Express international SUTs in FOB-prices, by estimating/imputing a CIF/FOB margins-matrix and tariffs matrix (by product and country pair) and subtracting these from the cells with imports In a later stage, these will be added to transport services products.
World input-output table (3 regions, industry-by-industry type)
Final domestic
use
Final domestic
use
Final domestic
use
Intermediate use
Intermediate use
Intermediate use
Country B
Final use of domestic
output
Rest of World
Final use by RoW of
exports from A
Final use by RoW of
exports from B
Output in RoW
Final use by B of exports
from A
Final use of domestic
output
Final use by B of exports from RoW
Country ACountry B
Industry
Intermediate use by B of
imports from RoW
Rest of World
Industry
Intermediate use by RoW of imports from
A
Intermediate use by RoW of imports from
B
Intermediate use of
domestic output
Country B
Rest of World (RoW)
Industry
Industry
Intermediate use of
domestic output
Industry
Country A Output in A
Final use of domestic
output
Total
Industry
Final use by A of exports
from B
Final use by A of exports from RoW
Intermediate use by B of
imports from A
Country A
Output in AValue added
Output in B
Output in RoW
Intermediate use by A of
imports from B
Intermediate use by A of
imports from RoW
Intermediate use of
domestic output
Value addedOutput in B
Value added
Tot Exp
Yellow: based on imports in CIFRed: exports in FOBGreen: obtained as residual (one column!)
Remaining Negative Exports to the Rest of the World…
Results for 2005: negatives by industry (max=40)
MiningLeather and footwear
MachineryTrade
Real estate services
Renting of Machinery: Germany -129 billions of US$
Remaining Negative Exports to the Rest of the World…
Results for 2005: negatives by country (max=35)
US
LUX MLT
SVN
CAN
GER: total -200 billion US$
GRAS-like Procedure to Estimate Import Ratios
n industries 2x Cons 1x GFCF 1x Invent 1x Exp Total m prod TU [uij] TU [uij] TU [uij] TU [uij] E [ei] ti m prod DU [(1-rij)uij] DU [(1-rij)uij] DU [(1-rij)uij] DU [(1-rij)uij] E [ei] di m prod IU [rijuij] IU [rijuij] IU [rijuij] IU [rijuij] RE [reij] ii
TU: Total use; DU: Use of domestically produced products; IU: Use of imported products; E: Exports; RE: re-exports.Shaded cells refer to known sets of values. Underlined variables are known.
*ln)/ln( ijj ijijj ijrrerr
10 ijr
iij ijij reiur
Minimize
,subject to:
Issues regarding estimation of ratios
Changes in inventories now treated as changes in domestically produced products
In benchmark IO and Use tables, imports also contribute to changes in inventories Information about treatment of changes in inventories by
NSIs does not give sufficient information about most appropriate way to deal with these in our context.
Merge information from end use classification with information from benchmark import tables, or leave it out?
Deliverables WP3
D3.3 (Preliminary WIOTs in constant international prices), month 21: ready, available on website
D3.4 (Preliminary integrated and consolidated IOTs for major regions), month 21: not ready, but can be done quickly. Decision on country aggregation needed. Proposal:
1. EU-272. North America (USA/CAN)3. Latin America (MEX/BRA)4. Developed Asia (JPN/KOR/TWN)5. Emerging Asia (CHN/IDN/IND)6. Rest of the World (RUS/TUR/ROW)