WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010 Frederik Neuwahl and Aurélien Genty Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu Kurt Kratena Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Vienna, Austria http://www.wifo.ac.at Energy and Environmental indicators in the WIOD System of Satellite Accounts Dataset version 1: Energy & Emissions to Air
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WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010 Frederik Neuwahl and Aurélien Genty Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain .
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WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Frederik Neuwahl and Aurélien Genty Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain
http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.euKurt Kratena
Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Vienna, Austriahttp://www.wifo.ac.at
Energy and Environmental indicatorsin the WIOD System of Satellite Accounts
Dataset version 1: Energy & Emissions to Air
2WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Outline
– Scope and definition of satellite accounts covered
– Available information and data reconciliation effort
– Construction of Energy and Air Emission Accounts: methodology
– Completion of vers. 1 dataset: discussion of results
– Modelling: bridging monetary to physical information
3WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Energy-environment satellite accounts in WIOD
– Core indicators Energy use, 25 energy commodities including
• Oil and gas• Electricity and heat• Coal and coal derivatives• Refinery products• Renewables and waste
– Additional indicators Water consumption Land use Resource use
4WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Target: Energy & emissions satellite accounts
– NAMEA concept: framework fully compliant with the accounting conventions of the SUT system. Allows integrated economy-environment analysis/modelling NAMEA-AIR: emissions to air by pollutant and by sector NAMEA-E: energy use by energy commodity and by sector, with a
range of coexisting concepts: net energy use, gross energy use, emission relevant energy use
– Different methodologies: energy first, inventory first
– Additionally: summary energy balances and energy supply
5WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
The starting blocks
– Energy information is widely available in two main forms: IEA extended energy balances: ~100 flows, ~60 energy
commodities. In TJ. Complemented by some (less rich) price information.
Use table of the national accounts: ~60 sectors, ~4 energy-related commodities. In $.
– In addition to this basic data situation Some countries already publish energy NAMEA Wider availability of air emission NAMEA (inventory first);
Eurostat provides either official NSI data or estimations for the whole range of EU countries.
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The Energy NAMEA01 10 11 15 21 22 23 24 25 40 45 60 61 62
– Main issue: reconciling the classification mismatch between IEA balances and national accounts
– However, different approaches are possible: Enrich the use table with additional rows containing energy carrier
use in physical unit; uses partial price information, but without allowing an immediate link between the entries of rows 10, 11, 23 and 40 and the physical flows.
Full reconciliation between IEA balances and the monetary information of the use table. Requires the estimation of a full vector of energy prices by energy commodity, de facto is equivalent to the disaggregation of rows 10,11, 23 and 40 in a finer product classification, and to building the equivalent PIOT rows. Also, data inconsistencies would require changes either in the UT or in the EB
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From energy balances to NAMEA-E: General issues of concordance to be addressed– Autoproduction of electricity– Assignment of road transport– Territorial vs. Residence principle; affects:
Marine transport Aviation Road transport Tourism statistics
– Military use– Extraterritorial organisations
– Splitting of non energy intensive sectors to target classification information in use table
}Stems from discordantconceptual definition of sector
} International bunkering
}Equivalent problem in National accounts
9WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Alignment with official dataDeviation of results from officially available data: NAMEA-E
(DE, NL, AT, DK) Own estimation fully calibrated to official data at the
available level of sector, energy commodity and time label Extrapolation to target sector, energy commodity and time
series by deriving from own estimation growth indices and split shares
Deviation of results from officially available data: NAMEA-AIR (all EU countries) Emission coefficients scaled to replicate official data of
emissions by sector Or: statistical difference allowed (CO2: small range is
physically possible)
10WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Results for energy :WIOD DESTAT diff % WIOD DESTAT diff %
Results for CO2: – Accuracy can be tested for most EU countries, against
NAMEA-AIR data reported to Eurostat– Total values generally match within few % – Deviations in energy intensive sectors should again be small
(less than 10%)– In some cases the totals can have significant deviations, and
the emissions from energy intensive sectors (power sector) can have large deviations (20%), unexplainable (cannot stem from wrong allocation: no process emissions or classification discordance) unless the energy information used by NSI is different from that reported to IEA. Data vintages issue.
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non-CO2 emissions: – The modelling of emission coefficients is complex, combines
parameters such as changes of fuel quality, combustion technology, end of pipe abatement techniques
– Use whenever possible official statistical sources for emissions by industry
– Draw on EXIOPOL experience for the modelling of emissions (explain emissions vs fuel substitution, technology)
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SOx vs energy (emitting fuels) inputs in EU countries: whole national economy (EU15 countries), trend
SOx vs energy (emitting fuels) inputs in EU countries: Basic metals sector, EU15 countries, year 2006
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0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
AU
T
BLG
DN
K
ES
P
FIN
FR
A
GE
R
GR
C
IRL
ITA
NLD
SW
E
GB
R
SOx emission/energy use
(t SO2-e/TJ)
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Consistency between monetary (SUT) and physical (NAMEA energy) data
Different data sets with identical or linked variablesThe consistency problem:
1. Energy inputs from NAMEA energy (in TJ, 25 energy carriers) by NACE industry combined with energy prices (OECD/IEA) yield energy inputs aggregating to CPA energy commodities monetary energy inputs CPA*WIOD industry
2. Energy inputs from SUT: monetary energy inputs CPA*WIOD industry
21WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Consistency between monetary (SUT) and physical (NAMEA Energy) data
Consistency of classifications: energy commodities
Energy data for 25 energy carriers in energy units by NACE industry CPA/Energy * WIOD industry
CPA 10: Coal (without coke)CPA 11: Crude Oil & Natural Gas; identification of crude oil by user, only 23 (refineries) uses crude oilCPA 23: Oil products & cokeCPA 40: Electricity & Heat, gas distribution
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Consistency between monetary (SUT) and physical (NAMEA energy) data
Comparison of energy inputs in monetary units: long term energy price increase
0
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1995
1996
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2002
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2005
2006
mill
. €
10: Coal & lignite inputE: electricity
NAMEA, energy
WIOD, SUT
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Consistency between monetary (SUT) and physical (NAMEA energy) data
Comparison of energy inputs in monetary units: ‘no problem’ case
Consistency between monetary (SUT) and physical (NAMEA energy) data
Comparison of energy inputs in monetary units: the post 2004 energy price boom
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mill
. €
23: Coke, refined petroleum input60: Land transport
NAMEA, energy
WIOD, SUT
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Consistency between monetary (SUT) and physical (NAMEA energy) data
Comparison of energy inputs in monetary units: the post 2004 energy price boom
0100200300400500600700800
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
mill
. €
40: Electricity, gas, heat input27t28: Basic metal
NAMEA, energy
WIOD, SUT
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Consistency between monetary (SUT) and physical (NAMEA energy) data
‘Soft link’ between SUT (WP1/WIOD) and Energy satellite accounts (WP4/WIOD)
1. Start with NAMEA energy, apply absolute prices (per energy unit) of 25 energy carriers, from Energy Prices & Taxes (OECD/IEA)
2. Calculate NAMEA energy inputs in monetary units for CPA energy commodities by WIOD-industry (compare to SUT energy inputs in monetary units)
3. Create a ‘soft link’ between - calculated (implicit) deflators of CPA energy commodities from NAMEA energy inputs in monetary units and in energy units- SUT energy deflators of CPA energy commodities