Winter 2017-2018 Cold Weather Operations - NYISO Weather Conditions Northeast Cold Snap: December 26 through until January 7 (13 days) ... Total Actual Generation by Fuel Mix - During

©COPYRIGHT NYISO 2018. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

Winter 2017-2018 Cold Weather Operations Wes Yeomans Vice President, Operations NYISO Management Committee January 31, 2018, Rensselaer, NY



Cold Weather Conditions

Northeast Cold Snap: December 26 through until January 7 (13 days)

Albany, NY: Average temperature was 4.5 F between December 27 through January 2 with 7 consecutive days with minimums below 0 F

Syracuse, NY: Coldest start of January in over 100 years with January 1-7 average of 7.3 F New York City: Temperatures below 32 F for 14 days

New England: Temperatures below 20 degrees for 8 consecutive days

Coastal Blizzard: Entire east coast experienced a Coastal Blizzard which impacted NYC, Long Island, and New England on January 4-6 • NY: Mostly a snow, wind, and cold event



Comparative to last Polar Vortex (January 2014)



Source: US National Weather Service Albany NY



Peak Loads

NY all-time Winter Electric Peak Load was 25,738 MW on January 7, 2014

NYISO Seasonal 50-50 Forecast was 24,365 MW

This Winter’s Actual Peak (so far) is 25,081 MW on Friday, January 5 • It was colder on January 1 than January 5 but January 1

was a holiday



20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

2004 -05

2005 -06

2006 -07

2007 -08

2008 -09

2009 -10

2010 -11

2011 -12

2012 -13

2013 -14

2014 -15

2015 -16

2016 -17

2017 -18

Winter Peak Loads (MWs) - 2004-05 to 2017-18

Actual Load

25,54125,060

25,05725,021

24,673

24,074

24,654

23,901

24,658

25,738

24,648

23,317

24,164

25,081

Winter Peak Loads in MWs 2004 - 2018



18% 20% 25% 29% 27% 26% 30% 29% 31% 32% 31%

36% 34%

19% 22%

17% 15% 16% 16%

15% 16% 17% 15% 15%

13% 15%

35% 32% 30%

30% 31% 32% 31% 29%

30% 29% 26% 26% 28%

2% 5% 5% 5% 5% 2% 7%

5% 6% 7% 6% 5%

5% 2% 3% 1% 1% 3% 2% 5% 3% 3% 7% 5% 3% 22% 21% 19% 18% 17% 17% 18% 14% 13% 14% 12% 12% 14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MW

h (%

)

Total Actual Generation by Fuel Mix Across Day

Dual Fuel Natural Gas Nuclear Other Fossil Fuels Other Renewables Wind Hydro



3,625 4,349 5,621 6,561 5,538 6,037 6,238 6,356 6,883 7,063 7,397 8,004 7,468

3,796 4,522

3,596 3,118

3,366 3,168 2,930 3,248 3,353 2,552 3,166 2,646 3,399

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

MW

h

HB 18

Total Actual Generation by Fuel Mix- During Peak Hours

Dual Fuel Natural Gas Nuclear Other Fossil Fuels Other Renewables Wind Hydro



716

1,882 1,824 1,689

3,212

2,017 2,399

1,727 1,617 1,925

2,625 2,799 2,865 1,588

1,260 1,389 1,244

1,244

1,374

1,389

1,467 1,954 1,388

1,375 1,222 1,218

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

MW

Outages by Type - Over Peak Hours

Forced Scheduled



Non Cold Related , 68%

Weather Related , 4%

Inability to get Fuel, [VALUE]

Emissions, 1%

Overall Distribution of Thermal and Hydro Forced Outages and Derates for 13 Days over Peak Hours



79

44

304

904

665 828

799 547 805

850 1,072 1,091 128

106

106

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

MW

Thermal and Hydro Forced Outages and Forced Derates by Categories

In the December 21, 2017 Management Committee presentation,” Winter 2018 Capacity Assessment Winter

Preparedness” based on 60 months of history the projection was 3,373 MW of Hydro and Thermal Forced outages



Other Regions Reliability & Markets

NYISO: Operations participated in conference calls with NPCC and gas pipelines

Hydro-Quebec : Recorded a new all-time peak of 39,710 MW

on January 6



Transmission Transmission Infrastructure Performance - Excellent Transmission Owners rescheduled transmission maintenance

outages to time periods after the cold snap The two Ramapo PARs had positive impacts – full utilization

of 500 kV #5018 Central East was the primary binding constraints NYISO initiated a few NERC TLR-3 alerts













Winter 2017-18 Observations (for the period 12/26/2017 through 01/07/2018)

Cold Snap 2017-2018 • Characterized by many days of gas prices exceeding oil prices

Natural gas prices (as indexed at Transco Zone 6 for NYC area) averaged $47.34/MMBTU during 13-day cold snap

• 1,374% increase over December 2017 (for the period 12/01/2017 thru 12/25/2017) average of $3.45/MMBTU

Load weighted electric LBMP $135.96/MWh during 13-day cold snap • 297% increase over December 2017 (for the period 12/01/2017 thru 12/25/2017) average of

$34.27/MWH

Electrical marginal energy prices did not increase as much as the gas prices primarily because the NYISO market systems selected lower-cost resources – primarily dual-fuel units capable of operating on lower cost oil



Waiver Request to FERC for Cost Recovery On January 4, 2018, the NYISO filed for a waiver with FERC to

allow compensation for generator incremental energy costs and minimum generation costs in excess of $1000/MWh • The requested waiver period was January 6 to February 28

FERC granted the waiver request on January 12, 2018 As of January 24, 2018 the NYISO has not received any such cost

recovery requests



Gas System

The interstate and gas LDC pipelines all remained in-service Gas Pipelines and Gas LDCs issued many of the following:

• Gas Alerts • Daily OFOs (Operational Flow Orders) • Hourly OFOs • Interruption of Transportation Services (Interruptible Gas Customers will not be able to get Gas)



Operations

Ad Hoc Fuel Surveys No Need for Demand Response State Agencies Communications

• NY Governor press release on January 4, 2018 regarding coastal Blizzard • NYISO participation in a few NY State Agency conference calls per our State Agency Winter

Communication Protocol

NYISO Press WebEx • NYISO hosted a “Winter Operations Media Briefing” on January 4, 2018



Fuel Monitoring

Weekly Surveys Ad Hoc Surveys Reach-out to a few for more specific information Cooperation and Accuracy of the Web Based Fuel Survey

Application was excellent



Renewable Generator Performance



Renewable Generator Performance



26

The Mission of the New York Independent System Operator, in collaboration with its stakeholders, is to serve the public interest and provide benefits to consumers by:

• Maintaining and enhancing regional reliability

• Operating open, fair and competitive wholesale electricity markets

• Planning the power system for the future

• Providing factual information to policy makers, stakeholders and investors in the power system

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Winter 2017-2018 Cold Weather Operations - NYISO Weather Conditions Northeast Cold Snap: December 26 through until January 7 (13 days) ... Total Actual Generation by Fuel Mix - During

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