Wind and emission reductions Moving to a 30% target

Wind and emission reductions Moving to a 30% target

Rémi GruetClimate Change AdvisorEuropean Wind Energy Association Date

Outline of presentation

• Wind market status

• Prospective Wind growth and scenarios

• Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU

• Global Wind and a new climate agreement

• Additional content

Source: EWEA

1MW = enough electricity for 750 average EU households

Annual EU wind energy installations (in MW)

Source: EWEA

Cumulative EU wind energy installations

Net = installations – decommissioning in MW

Net power capacity in the EU 2000-2008

Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts Power Vision

TOTAL: 23,851 MW

Renewables: 13,200MW

New power capacity installed in 2008

Source: EWEA and Platts Power Vision

Cumulative wind power installations (end 2008)

Source: EWEA, Pure Power (March 2008)

• Wind market status

• Prospective Wind growth and scenarios

• Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU

• Global Wind and a new climate agreement

• Additional content

Outline of presentation

March 2009: EWEA increased its 2020 target from 180 GW to 230 GW (incl. 40 GW offshore)

Rising energy demand and contribution from wind power

2000: 12.9 GW

2008: 66 GW 2020: 230 GW

Two decades toinstall 0.9% of EUelectricity demand

Demand: 2,577 TWh

Accelerating pace: reaching 4.2% end 2008

Demand: 3,380 TWh

14%-18%despite growing demand

Demand: 4,107 TWh

Source: EWEA

GW 2008level

Annual EU wind power installations required to reach 230 GW by 2020

02

468

10121416

1820

2008 2009-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020

Source: EWEA

Outline of presentation

• Wind market status

• Prospective Wind growth and scenarios

• Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU

• Global Wind and a new climate agreement

• Additional content

• Wind energy avoids CO2-emissions

– Wind produces CO2-free electricity, otherwise produced with gas, coal and oil power plants, which emit CO2

– Scenarios enable projections towards 2020

• Industrialised countries have emissions reduction targets – Kyoto Protocol – up until 2012– 2020 targets (EU, Norway)

How much of these reduction targets can wind achieve ?

More wind – less CO ₂

Source: DG TREN: Trends to 2030

• Gas, coal and oil plants produce on av. 666 gCO2/kWh

• Wind production avoids2008: 137 TWh 91 Mt CO2

2012: 234 TWh 146 Mt CO2

2020: 582 TWh 333 Mt CO2

• Kyoto Protocol EU target 2008-2012 = 7.8% 450 MtCO2e per year below 1990 emissions

• EU Climate package target by 2020 = 20% 1160 MtCO2e in 2020 below 1990 emissions

Example: wind in the EU

Source: EWEA, Pure Power (March 2008); DG TREN: Trends to 2030

EU - Wind power will avoid as much CO2 as...

20% of the EU’s Kyoto target

32% of the EU’s

Kyoto target

29% of the EU’s2020 target

(20%)

2020

2008

2012

From 2008-2020, wind will avoid 28% of the EU cumulative reduction efforts

Emission Reduction Effort

Wind-avoided CO2 Emissions: 28%

EU-27’s Kyoto Target

(7,8%) EU-27 2020 target Climate Package

(20%)

Wind-avoided CO2 = 32% of

EU Kyoto target Wind-avoided CO2 = 29% of

EU 2020 target

… from Kyoto until 2012 and the climate package until 2020

EU 2020 – Wind power versus car emissions

EU 2012 – Wind avoids 146 MtCO2,

eq. to 46 million cars

20% of EU fleet !

EU 2020 – wind avoids 333 MtCO2,

eq. to 168 million cars 80% of EU fleet !

EU fleet - 214 million cars

• Wind market status

• Prospective Wind growth and scenarios

• Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU

• Global Wind and a new climate agreement

• Additional content

Outline of presentation

At global level - Wind’s contribution to pledges for Copenhagen

Source: UNFCCC Secretariat – FCCC/KP/AWG/2009/10/Add.4/Rev.2

Current UNFCCC pledges

+ USA climate bill: 17%-20% of 2005 emissions

= aggregated Annex I pledges 13%-20% of 1990 emissions

Versus Global Wind in 2020– 1081 GW installed capacity– 2650 TWh produced 1591 Mt CO2 avoided

-22 to 25%

16% of Annex I 2008 Kyoto target

44% of Annex I

2012 Kyoto target

65% of Annex I2020 pledges

(13%)

2020200

8201

2

Annex I - Global Wind in 2020 will avoid…

16% of Annex I 2008 Kyoto target

44% of Annex I

2012 Kyoto target

2020200

8201

2

Annex I – Global Wind in 2020 will avoid…

42% of Annex I2020 pledges

(20%)

• For a 50% chance to stay below 2°C increase…– Developed countries 25%-40% from 1990

by 2020– Developing countries 15-30% deviation from

BAU

• Projections for 2020 emissions in energy sector (Mt)

USA-China-India – target or deviation from BAU

China India

International Energy Agency (IEA)

9,475 1,818

Energy Info. Admin (EIA, US)

10,004 2,187

University of Grenoble (POLES)

7,551 2,926

Source: World Resource Institute – CAIT GHG Database

28 % of US pledge for 2020

USA - Wind in 2020 will avoid as much CO₂ as

US pledge = 17% from 2005 levels

…20% to 26% of China’s GHG reductions

POLES

EIA IEA

China - 15% from BAU by 2020 (energy)

Wind power can contribute…

POLESEIA IEA

India - 15% from BAU by 2020 (energy)

Wind power can contribute…

…46% to 74% of India’s GHG reductions

• Wind power will significantly reduce emissions, both in industrialised and developing countries.

• Wind power will provide for a significant portion of the emissions reductions as pledged for a Copenhagen agreement, with existing legislation.

Industrialised countries must review and raise their pledges for reduction targets

More advanced developing countries should consider appropriate reductions from BAU

Conclusion

Thank you very much for your attention

www.ewea.org

RENEWABLE ENERGY HOUSE63-65 RUE D’ARLONB-1040 BRUSSELS

T: +32 2 546 1940F: +32 2 546 1944E: [email protected]

Additional content

– Additional Climate slides– How a turbine comes together– Economics of Wind– Wind and employment– Wind innovations– EU wind map– Wind pictures– Environmental impacts

• Wind and birds / bats• Spatial planning

EU ETS – New wind power (built after 2012) will avoid the equivalent of...

55% of the EU ETS target for the power sector in 2020 (20% target)1

1. Considering constant electricity consumption

How a turbine comes together

Cost structure – EU Typical 2MW turbine

Cost of generated power 1– Wind versus conventional

Assumes CO2 costs: 25$/tCO2 Oil price : IEA2007 - 59$/barrel in 2010

Cost of generated power 2 – Wind versus conventional Assuming increased oil and CO2 prices

Assumes CO2 costs: 35$/tCO2 Oil price doubled to 118$/barrelCoal price up 50%

Cost of generated power 3 –IEA forecast for the EU, in 2015 and 2030

Includes CO2 costs: 30$/MWh for coal and 15$/MWh for gas

How many jobs to expect from Wind ?

• Jobs in the EU in Wind in 2008– Direct jobs: 108 000– Direct + Indirect jobs: 154 000

• Predicted jobs in the EU in Wind in 2020– Direct jobs: 190 000– Direct + Indirect jobs: 328 000

Wind Resource in the EU-15