ATLANTIC MAJOR HURRICANE FREQUENCY AND FLORIDA LANDFALL William M. Gray Department of Atmospheric Science May 15, 2014
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ATLANTIC MAJOR HURRICANE
FREQUENCY AND FLORIDA LANDFALL
William M. Gray
Department of Atmospheric Science
May 15, 2014
1 JUNE 1982
“There is no way to tell
how active the coming
Atlantic hurricane
season is going to be.”
-Neil Frank, Director of NHC
I
10 days
EC
MW
F
OUTGOING LONGWAVE
RADIATION
ABSORBED SOLAR
RADIATION
LATENT HEAT FLUX
NET ENERGY BALANCE
TEMPERATURE
OCEAN HEAT FLUX
SUBSURFACE HEAT
STORAGE
SENSIBLE HEAT AND
POTENTIAL ENERGY FLUX
THERMAL
INERTIA
Flow diagram for climate modeling, showing feedback loops. From Robock (1985).
MH Tracks
during
22 ENSO
cold years
MH Tracks
during
22 ENSO
warm years
• AFRICAN RAINFALL
• QBO STRATOSPHERIC WINDS
• SEA SURFACE TEMP. (SST)
• SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (SLP)
The
Siege of
Time
MOST BASIC
HURRICANE
FORECAST
PARAMETER?Atlantic Ocean
Thermohaline
Circulation (THC)
SALINITYMIXING
MORE
SINKING
MORE
SINKING
LESS SINKING
THC (or AMO)
STRONG
THC (or AMO)
WEAK
STRONG THC WEAK THC
gyre - gyre +
+
+
+ –
–
–
SLPA – SLPA +
THC
Fast
SlowSlow
Global Warming
Global Warming
Global Cooling
Fast
Global CoolingGlobal Cooling
50-60oN; 10-50oW
Fast
More MH
More MH
More MH
1900-25 1926-69 1970-94 1995-13
Cat 3-4-5 13 28 10 32
13
28
10
32
Annual Number of 6 Hour Periods for Cat 3-4-5 Hurricanes
1941-1969 (29 yrs)
Major Hurricanes(28 Landfalls)
% US Landfall to
Atlantic Basin
Total
28 / 90 = 31%
0.97 Landfalls
per year25%
75%
THC
Strong
28 / 90 = 31%
1970-1994 (25 yrs)
Major Hurricanes(13 Landfalls)
% US Landfall to
Atlantic Basin
Total
13 / 38 = 34%
0.34 Landfalls
per year69%
31%
THC
Weak
13 / 38 = 34%
WARM N. ATLANTIC 73
(THC STRONG)
COLD N. ATLANTIC 27
(THC WEAK) ___
100
THC
Fast
SlowSlow
Global Warming
Global Warming
Global Cooling
Fast
Global CoolingGlobal Cooling
50-60oN; 10-50oW
Fast
GFE
= 912
GFE
= 114
GFE
= 1428
GFE
= 84
GFE
=
64
WHEN THC STRONG
Gulf 40% (29)
Florida – East Coast 60% (44)
WHEN THC WEAK
Gulf 70% (19)
Florida – East Coast 30% (8)
2004-2005 (2 yrs)
Major Hurricanes(7 Landfalls)
RITA ‘05JEANNE ‘04
CHARLEY ‘04
IVAN ‘04
DENNIS ‘05
KATRINA ‘05WILMA ‘05
% US Landfall to
Atlantic Basin
Total
7 / 13 = 54%
3.5 Landfalls
per year
7 / 13 = 54%
1995-2013 (17 yrs)
(not including 2004-2005)
Major Hurricanes (3 Landfalls)
BRET ‘99
OPAL ‘95
FRAN ‘96
% US Landfall to
Atlantic Basin
Total
3 / 53 = 6%
0.19 Landfalls
per year
3 / 53 = 6%
% US Landfall to
Atlantic Basin
Total
16 / 92 = 17%
0.40 Landfalls
per year
1970-2013 (42 yrs)
(not including 2004-2005)
Major Hurricanes (16 Landfalls)
69%
31%16 / 92 = 17%
2000-2013 (12 yrs)
(not including 2004-2005)
Major Hurricanes (No Landfalls)
% US Landfall to
Atlantic Basin
Total
0 / 33 = 0%
0 Landfalls per
year
0 / 33 = 0%
Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray
2013 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast
“The best laid schemes of mice and men sometimes go awry” -- R. Burns
GRAY
Cooler +
WARM
More ΔT SLPA + SSTA -
THC WEAK (Apr-June)
less cool
Less ΔT SLPA –SSTA +
WARM
THC STRONG (Apr-June)
FORECAST
BY
1 JULY
Florida Landfalling Major Hurricanes during 1966-2013
1992
(Andrew)
Except for ’04 and ’05 (45 years)
Florida Landfalling Major Hurricanes during 1966-2013
(47 years)
1918-1965
48 YEARS
26 MH
65
54
44 5060
596054
50
55
54 55
4547
49
48
44
38
33
3529
26
2833
1966-2013
48 YEARS
7 MH
89
85
04
0504 92
96
MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL
21
19
78% 22%
% FL+EC
Landfall to
Atlantic Basin
Total
24 / 97 = 25%
0.77 Landfalls
per year
% US Landfall to
Atlantic Basin
Total
5 / 91 = 6%
0.12 Landfalls
per year
1941-1969 &
2004-2005
1970-2013
w/o ‘04-’05
31 years 42 years
0.77 Landfalls
per year
0.12 Landfalls
per year
GLOBAL
WARMING –
HURRICANE
CHANGES
Popular
Textbooks∆ Temperature from CO2 being doubled by
the end of the 21st century
1918-1965 48 Years
1966-2013 48 Years
2050
Background 280 ppm
310 ppm
370ppm
43
Lan
dfa
lls
22
Lan
dfa
lls
0.90 year
0.46 year
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Global
N. Hemp.
S. Hemp.
Adapted from Ryan N. Maue
TC ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (or ACE)
CO2
380
ppm
340
ppm
12%
Long-Period Climatology
cannot be altered – expect
much more Florida
hurricane destruction in
coming decades – the last
three to four decades of
landfall is likely not
representative of the
future!
Outlook for the 2014 Atlantic
Hurricane Season
Phil Klotzbach
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
All forecasts and verifications are available on our project’s website: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu
Forecast ParameterStatistical Forecast
Final
Forecast1981-2010
Median
Named Storms (NS) 8.4 9 12.0
Named Storm Days (NSD) 35.8 35 60.1
Hurricanes (H) 4.3 3 6.5
Hurricane Days (HD) 13.6 12 21.3
Major Hurricanes (MH) 1.3 1 2.0
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) 2.1 2 3.9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 56 55 92
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) 64 60 103
2014 FORECAST AS OF 10 APRIL 2014
Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomalies (0-300 meters) since May 2013
b – more TCs
a – fewer TCs
El Niño U.S.
Major
Hurricane
Landfalls
(29 Years)
11 Major
Hurricane
Landfalls
La Niña
U.S. Major
Hurricane
Landfalls
(25 Years)
26 Major
Hurricane
Landfalls
El Niño
La Niña
El Niño
La Niña
February-March 2014
Observed vs. April Model Jackknifed NTC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Observed NTC
Hindcast NTC r = 0.57
NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC
1957 8 38.00 3 21.00 2 6.50 84 86
1963 9 52.00 7 37.25 2 7.00 118 116
1965 6 39.50 4 27.25 1 7.50 84 86
1997 8 30.00 3 9.50 1 2.25 41 54
2002 12 57.00 4 10.75 2 3.00 67 83
MEAN 8.6 43.3 4.2 21.2 1.6 5.3 79 85
2014 Forecast
9 35 3 12 1 2 55 60
BEST ANALOG YEARS FOR 2014 (APRIL FORECAST)
Date
10
Apr.
2
June
31
July
Seasonal
ForecastX X X
2014
Forecast Schedule
2014 PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR
(CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL IN
EACH OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS (20th
CENTURY PROBABILITIES IN PARENTHESES)
1) Entire U.S. coastline – 35% (52%)
2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida – 20%
(31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward
to Brownsville – 19% (30%)
4) Caribbean (10-20°N, 60-88°W) – 28% (42%)
Landfalling Hurricane Web
Application
Currently Available at the following URL:
In partnership with the GeoGraphics
Laboratory – Bridgewater State University,
Bridgewater MA
http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane
2014 Probabilities (20th Century Probabilities in
Parentheses)
State Hurricane Impact Prob. MH Impact Prob.
Florida 35% (51%) 13% (21%)
Louisiana 19% (30%) 7% (12%)
Massachusetts 4% (7%) 1% (2%)
Mississippi 6% (11%) 3% (4%)
New York 5% (8%) 2% (3%)
North Carolina 18% (22%) 5% (8%)
Texas 21% (33%) 7% (12%)
2014 Probabilities (20th Century Probabilities in
Parentheses)
Country/Island Hurricane within 100
Miles
MH within 100
Miles
The Bahamas 35% (51%) 19% (30%)
Cuba 36% (52%) 18% (28%)
Haiti 17% (27%) 8% (13%)
Jamaica 16% (25%) 7% (11%)
Mexico 40% (57%) 14% (23%)
Puerto Rico 18% (29%) 8% (13%)
US Virgin Islands 19% (30%) 7% (12%)
Two-Week Atlantic
Basin Forecasts
(available since 2009)
No Storm Formations in 2008
200 mb
850 mb
Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean Atlantic Ocean
MJO Propagation
Day 0
200 mb
850 mb
Day 10
200 mb
850 mb
Day 20
Forecast Day Predicted ACE Observed ACE
8/2/13 Below-Average (4 or Less) 0
8/16/13 Above-Average (19 or More) 2
8/30/13 Average (20-37) 11
9/13/13 Average (15-28) 8
9/27/13 Below-Average (7 or Less) 4
10/11/13 Below-Average (4 or Less) 2
Two-Week Forecast Verification for 2013
Correct Category 1 Category Miss 2 Category Miss
Arago’s Admonition:
“Never, no matter what may be the progress
of science, will honest scientific men who
have regard for their reputations venture to
predict the weather.”
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