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Will
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survive…… US?
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By Chia Han-LeonLecturer, Enterprise Social Business, Institute of Systems ScienceNational University of Singapore
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There are people who “love” Facebook…
More than 1.27 billion users 2.7 billion connected people 1.2 billion monthly active users 13 new users per second
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To illustrate…..
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
The Faces of Facebook by Natalia Rojas (app.thefacesoffacebook.com)
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And there are people who “hate” Facebook
Milennials Teenagers Privacy advocates Disillusioned Marketers
>>
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Image: Flickr user owenwbrown]
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5© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
http://time.com/34025/the-free-marketing-gravy-train-is-over-on-facebook/
http://adage.com/article/digital/brands-organic-facebook-reach-crashed-october/292004/
http://adage.com/article/digital/facebook-admits-organic-reach-brand-posts-dipping/245530/
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6© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
https://threatpost.com/privacy-advocates-want-to-halt-facebook-acquisition-of-whatsapp/104673
http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/229815
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/dec/27/facebook-dead-and-buried-to-teens-research-finds
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Source: iStrategy Labs http://istrategylabs.com/2014/01/3-million-teens-leave-facebook-in-3-years-the-2014-facebook-demographic-report/
Caveat:different range per group
The statistics often say:
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
7% of 2,449 teens say they don’t use Facebook.
36% of 1,067 teens say they don’t use Twitter.
Though, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll,
Source: Marketingcharts.com/Piper Jaffray (Oct 2013)
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“Like” and “Use” are two different things
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Three popular services
Many young adults use Instagram
Teens say they prefer Whatsapp.
So that apparently leaves most adults, parents, grandparents on…
> 90% of the 150 million people on Instagram are under age 35.
Of all social media users,Age 18-29: 37% use instagramAge 30-49: 18% Age 50-64: 6%
Even primary school students use Whatsapp. However there are no demographics.
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(Maybe when the kids grow up…)
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http://www.businessinsider.sg/instagram-demographics-2013-12/
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But in case you’ve forgotten…
$1 billion
$19 billion
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So actually,
Everyone is (still sort of) using Facebook.
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and then Facebook bought
Photo by MHK Marketing, used under Creative Commons license. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mkhmarketing
and made lots of Oculus’ original backers angry
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Has the novelty of Facebook worn off?
E.g.
Why write a postwhen you can just#love #TagsForLikes #TFLers #tweegram#photooftheday #20likes #amazing #smile #follow4follow #like4like #look #instalike #igers#picoftheday #food #instadaily #instafollow #followme#girl #iphoneonly #instagood #bestoftheday#instacool #instago #all_shots #follow #webstagram#colorful #style #swag
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Facebook has evolved.
It has to.
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Regular Improvements
March 2014
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2008: The Publisher
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Some of Facebook’s key rollouts
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2008:Facebook Chat
Real-time Notifications
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The Like
2009
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2009: Facebook Pages
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So, will Facebook survive?
Yes, based on its mass and evolving usage.
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But is Facebook’s mass also its weakness?
Too many eggs in one basket?What if Facebook is smaller? Government-owned/controlled?
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http://www.theverge.com/2014/3/13/5488558/danah-boyd-interview-the-era-of-facebook-is-an-anomaly
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“The idea of everybody going to one site is just weird.” Give me one other part of history where
everybody shows up to the same social space.
Fragmentation is a more natural state of being.”
Microsoft Researcherdanah boyd
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Facebook vs the Competition
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A Fragmented Social Web
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Two ways to look at it
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1. Where else would we go?
Platforms that have value Facebook doesn’t provide, in terms of a feature or service.
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… or in less tangible terms such as privacy or cost of participation.
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“LinkedIn is for people you know, Facebook is for people you used to know, Twitter is for people you want to know.”
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i.e. they are all different.
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The old joke….
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
“Twitter makes me like people I’ve never met and Facebook makes me hate people I know in real life.”
- @shaylamaddox
Illustration by Kiersten
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Slightly newer joke ….
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Familiarity Breeds Contempt.
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Knowing someone too well also means knowing his/her faults.
Like our relationship with Facebook, family… and even friends.
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2. Does a “Facebook Killer” exist?
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Something with:
Identical features/value,
Attractive to/used by many people; and
presumably “better” in some way.
None. Or we don’t know (yet).
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How about the other giant tech companies?
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It’s a network of functions.
Not a social network.
Just as indispensable as Facebook – probably more(!).
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Google’s value is “embedded”
Important value that we call upon when needed.
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Facebook is “wears its heart on its sleeve”. It thrives on the serendipitous and the emotional.
Which we enjoy, we crave.
The very definition of social network.
We don’t think of it as “functionalist”.
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Good to know Have to know
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So how will Facebook survive if it’s not very “functional”?
What is its “business model”?
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AnalogiesFacebook is your sofa/bed.
Option, ComfortUnique,Necessary
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Google is like your fridge.
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FBED CONCEPT BY DEVIANTOM (deviantom.com)
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Facebook is the food/dish.
The “end product”, the one you enjoy.
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Google is the cooking pan.
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Source: http://www.alohasweets.com/
The tool, the means; the one you work with.
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Function …. “Function”.
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Friends, fulfilment, etc. (SOCIAL)
And this will change things again.
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When Google/FB REALLY IS IN your pot, fridge and more.
SOCIAL REDEFINED: capacity to share “have-to-knows” before you need it rather than through serendipitous “good to know”.
One of the masters of this is…
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IKEA’s kitchen of the future, the SKARP
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The (somewhat) hidden rival:
Could easily become a social network.
Already had the foundations since 1990s.
Reverse situation: already has a business model.
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“The Internet is disrupting every media industry… people can complain about that, but complaining is not a strategy. And Amazon is not happening to book selling, the future is happening to book selling.”
Amazon's Jeff Bezos looks to the future http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-jeff-bezos-looks-to-the-future/Photo: http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2012/04/04/inside-amazon/
Jeff Bezos
Facebook expects to be disrupted too.
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Facebook Acquisitions
Who tried to buy Facebook in 2006?
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was a rival to Facebook for photo-sharing.
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Had the youth demographics that Facebook was “missing”.
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“More of my friends have Whatsapp than Facebook.”
“Too much work to use Facebook. Have to boot up computer. Don’t like the mobile version.”
“I still like Facebook because people in it are more mature.”
I asked my tween what she thought:
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But why buy Oculus Rift?
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The future in Virtual Reality.
It’s about building the
next-generation internet.
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But not like THIS...
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iOptik Augmented Reality contact lenses.(Note: still requires glasses)
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http://innovega-inc.com/
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Facial Recognition, Augmented Reality, etc.
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(Bought by Google in 2012)
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Virtual Reality Interfaces
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Ironman (Marvel/Paramount)
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Gesture Recognition, etc.
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http://leapmotion.com
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All 4 articles from last week of March 2014.© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 55
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P5 Glove - Virtual Reality Data Glove http://www.cwonline.com/
By the way, who would make up the biggest market for virtual reality gaming?
YouthThe segment that is “leaving” Facebook…
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Also, Facebook is building drones and satellites to connect more of the world to the internet.
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So will Facebook survive….Us?
YES,but not in the form you imagine today.
It’s going to be more than a social network.
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Social and Functional technologies will merge
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Virtual Reality + Internet of Things + Smart Devices + Social/Collabortive Networking + Predictive Intelligence + …….
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conclusionJeff Bezos:
“Companies have short life spans…. And Amazon will be disrupted one day. … I don’t worry about it 'cause I know it’s inevitable. Companies come and go. And the companies that are, you know, the shiniest and most important of any era, you wait a few decades and they’re gone.”Charlie Rose:
“And your job is to make sure that you delay that date?”Jeff Bezos:
“I would love for it to be after I’m dead.”
Amazon's Jeff Bezos looks to the future http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-jeff-bezos-looks-to-the-future/
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Will it?
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Thanks for listening!
@leonchia
sg.linkedin.com/in/leonchia/
[email protected]
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