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Why There are no Technological ImperativesTechnologies are
malleable There is not a straight line from invention to ultimate
use. Foresight is limited by both undue optimism and insufficient
visionTechnologies are socially constructed. The first uses are
usually those that change everyday life the least.Technologies are
path dependent: Their origins shape their futures.
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Technologies are Malleable
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And dead ends are commonSouth Jersey Magazine, Winter 2002, p.
4
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Jinnosuke Kajino planned a bicycle railroad. This plan did not
materialize. This railroad bicycle does not understand even
structure. This plan isdated Aug-ust, 1889.
http://www.eva.hi-ho.ne.jp/ootsu/ant5.html - sept. 15,
2002Smithville Problems: Sudden bumps.Only one mon- orail led to
con- frontations when riders headed in different directions!Its not
just great minds that think alike
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Foresight is limited by undue optimismNY Mayor Wagner and friend
talking with Mrs. Ladybird Johnson on picturephone, 1964 Newsday
http://future.newsday.com/5/fbak0507.htm, Sept. 15, 2002Electro
& Sparko: GE Exhibit, NY Worlds Fair, 1939
http://www.moah.org/exhibits/archives/robots.html, Sept. 15,
2002
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Or too little vision: The future of e-mail, 1983Atlanta Journal
Constitution, Dec. 18, 1983
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Technologies often move from business to the
homehttp://members.aol.com/allenamet/PhonoBooks.html 9/15/02Edison
with wax cyllinder photograph. The phonograph was first
commercialized in 1888 by Jesse Lippincott, who thought it would
replace stenographers and notepads. It didnt.
http://www.acmi.net.au/AIC/EDISON_HIST_PHONO.html 9 15 02Later,
people paid to hear phonograph recordings in public
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Technologies are Path DependentARPA was initially funded to have
military uses, which meant it was produced to be durable, robust,
and hard-to-kill When libertarian hackers use that kind of
technology, they are able to foster very different values
(decentralization, free speech, easy mobilization of collective
action, not to mention less noble forms of hacking) based on:Open
architectureDecentralized computingRedundant functions The team
that deployed ARPAnet in 1969, including John Postel, David Crocker
and Vincent Cerf. Arpanet Map from 1973
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How do Technologies Spread? Prices go down as demand growsPeople
have varying reservation prices for purchaseShape of diffusion
curve reflects
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1) the relationship between price and volume sold (i.e. how
quickly price declines as market grows) and 2) the distribution of
reservation prices (price elasticity)Reservation prices differ from
group to group
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Household Penetration , Selected Media (from Schement 1999)
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What is Distinctive about Information Technologies? Markets are
NetworksINFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES ARE NETWORK GOODS:Goods or
services for which each users utility is a positive function of the
number of other users.U.S. biotechnology industry network c. 2000,
Walter Powell
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Examples of Network Goods Telephone Napster/KaZaa/etc., E-Bay
Adobe Acrobat
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Household Penetration , Selected Media (from Schement
1999)Television and radiosingle purchasecommon culturerapid
riseTelephone and cable subscription private use slower
increase