Wg Cdr Raj Mongia Research Fellow Centre for Air Power Studies 01
Jul 15, 2015
What to expect?• New Status – Rise as a Great Power
• Beijing assert its interests and willingness to prevail even at the expense of appearing villain
• Is China prepared to play positive leadership role in 21st century?
• How is China’s foreign Policy behaviour after global downturn in 2008?
02Wg Cdr Raj Mongia
Metamorphosis
Policy of “taoguangyanghui” to bid time
Policy of “mulin zhengce” for good neighbours
“Learn to live with the hegemon”
“bottom-line of national survival”
03
No longer avoided confrontations
Core Interests
Wg Cdr Raj Mongia
08
China – Victim or Culprit?
increasing confidence in its ability to deal with the West and the territorial disputes with its neighbours
frustration over the perceived anti-China forces trying to prevent China’s rise to its rightful place
uneasiness among Chinese leaders
More willing to participate in world affairs
US neither want to see China democratic nor to be richer and stronger
Rapid economic growth of China brought about unprecedented resource vulnerability
human rights, media freedom, Tibet, Taiwan, pollution and relationships with neighbouring countries
Wg Cdr Raj Mongia
09
Suspicion
FrustrationCore Interests
Economic and Political Uncertainties
Unrest in Tibet and in Muslim region of Xinjiang
Communist ideology loosing its charm
China – Victim or Culprit?
Wg Cdr Raj Mongia
Global Power - Yes Global Responsibility - NoChina’s 3 core interests:
• To maintain its fundamental system and state security.
• To maintain state sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Continued stable development of its economy and society.
China’s changing international role
• Chinese government should abandon the passive ‘Tiaoguang Yanghui’ policy
and take a great power (daguo) responsibility to ensure a just world order.
• Government should adopt a modified taoguangyanghui policy to give more
emphasis on youshuo zuowei (striking some points/successes) and take a more
active role in persuing certain policy objectives particularly in China’s core
interest issue areas.
• To continue the low-key policy and avoid taking a leadership position on most
issues.10Wg Cdr Raj Mongia