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1982 Review
Could it happen again?Let’s find out together…..
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Why Genesis?
We have been named one of the Top Managers in the US for 5 years
running…soon to be 6.
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Why Genesis?
We have been serving clients for 30+ years.
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Why Genesis?
We have seen good and bad, bulls and bears,
Positive and negative.
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Why Genesis?
We are managers of the 2nd best performing mutual fund in Europe (out of 196 in our asset
class) for the last 3 years.
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Why Genesis?
Our posted private account portfolios have beaten the S&P 500 Index by fairly wide
margins…..
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Why Genesis?
2012: S&P 500 Index: + 11.95%
2012: Genesis: + 17.16%**please note all disclaimers at www.genesisam.com
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Why Genesis?
2013: S&P 500 Index: + 30.38%
2013: Genesis: + 41.95%**see all disclaimers at www.genesisam.com
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Why Genesis?
Our focus is you: our client.
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Why Genesis?
Our job is more about coaching you through the difficult spots on every journey….
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Why Genesis?
…and one can be assured, there will alwaysbe difficult spots.
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Why Genesis?
Our purpose is to help you meet your goals.
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Why Genesis?
Our value is driven by our independence.
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Why Genesis?
We don’t answer to Wall Street.
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Why Genesis?
We answer to one party: You
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1982 Review
Enough about us…
Could it really be upon us again?
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What did it look like then?
Lost decade of the 70’s
Darkness on the horizon…
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How Bad?
In the now famous 1980 speech, then President Carter stated….
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How Bad?
“A majority of our population now believes our best days are behind
us…”
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What were we facing?
The prime rate was on its way to 20.5% under Volcker.
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What were we facing?
Mortgages on homes were 17%!
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Inflation was “out of control”
The weekly reports of M2 money supply growth were vital…
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Inflation was “out of control”
The CPI hit 15.5%
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Oil and OPEC “in control”
Gas lines….Tanks empty
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Oil and OPEC “in control”
Headlines telling us that the US consumer “could not afford $1.00 a
gallon gasoline”
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And Then Reagan arrived…
And came up with this crazy idea of “trickle-down economics”
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And Then Reagan arrived…
….and he cut taxes and the budget deficit “ballooned”
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And Then Reagan arrived…
We were told by the experts,
we would pay for it….forever.
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And Then Reagan arrived…
Within months, voters wanted his head…..on a platter
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And then….this happened….
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But Mike, the market crashed in 1987!
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But what about the 90’s recession?
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You’re crazy, stocks are risky….
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There is just one enemy….yourself
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Anything look familiar?
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Crazy facts from the last 30+ years:
Investors feel better after stocks rise.
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Crazy facts from the last 30+ years:
They feel terrible after stocks fall.
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Crazy facts from the last 30+ years:
Investors sell “what is not working” .
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Crazy facts from the last 30+ years:
They buy “what is working”.
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Crazy facts from the last 30+ years:
In other words, buy high…
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Crazy facts from the last 30+ years:
…and sell low.
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Crazy facts from the last 30+ years:
Risk has generally been reduced after stocks fall.
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Crazy facts from the last 30+ years:
Risk tends to increase after stocks rise.
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How could today be 1982 all over again?
Dark horizons….
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How could today be 1982 all over again?
Many problems….
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How could today be 1982 all over again?
Armageddon headlines….
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Wall of worry? You bet…
$17 Trillion in debt?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
“Massive unemployment”
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Wall of worry? You bet…
No good jobs?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
The lost decade just past?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
You remember the PIIGS?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
Greece going broke?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
Europe collapsing?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
The Fiscal Cliff?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
QE 1, 2 and 3?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
The debt ceiling fight in DC?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
The debt ceiling fight in DC, Part II?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
Tax increases on the rich?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
The “healthcare crisis”?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
The Medicare crisis?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
The Social Security crisis?
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Wall of worry? You bet…
We have spent five years running from….
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Wall of worry? You bet…
Apocalypse Now…..
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Wall of worry? You bet…
To Apocalypse Later….
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Dirty little secrets about walls of worry:
Elephants never bite you on the ass…
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Dirty little secrets about walls of worry:
…mosquitos do.
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What we all worry about today….
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…is the same as what we worried about 5 years ago.
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What would you have thought in August of 1982, if we had
grabbed a cup of coffee and I had said to you,
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“Hey, I know there is nothing but bad news all around us, but the
market will hit 15,000 in the next 30 years.”
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Just how crazy do you think that would have seemed?
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15 times higher than it was in 1982?
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In the midst of all the terrible things we faced at the time?
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EVERY SINGLE THING investors are afraid of today…
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…has happened in the last 30 years…every thing.
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Yet, during that same time period, with all those terrible
events facing us…
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…the markets have increased by 15 times since 1982.
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Here is the kicker…and think about this for awhile before you
react…
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Were we sitting together today, I would calmly say to you:
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“The next 30 years are very likely to look a great deal like the last
30 years….”
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Many terrible things will indeed happen.
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We can surely count on more wars and natural disasters…
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Guaranteed more recessions and growth cycles
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Likely several market crashes,
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and many more bull and bear markets.
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Yet, the same return multiple of 15 times that we witnessed between 1982 and 2012 ….
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…would take the DOW to over 200,000 thirty years from now
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I know what you are thinking….
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How crazy is that?
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Before you answer, just think…
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How crazy was it in 1982?
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It is during the greatest periods of risk and perceived dark
horizons…
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…that we find our greatest opportunity…
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It is when everyone is in a funk, when dark clouds mask the
future, when problems seem to lie around every corner…
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that we find the lows in prices….and the highs in value
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Risk is dynamically altered by time….
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If I have a goal which demands capital in 6 months,
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“risk” and my perception of it changes daily…
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…I cannot afford to skip a beat.
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On the other hand, with a wealth management plan which
effectively maps out your 1, 3, 5, 10 and 20 year goals,
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your perception of risk dramatically changes….
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….and positions you as the predator if you will,
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permitting you to act when others will fear.
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…. When properly managed, your wealth plan can
expand
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During the very times many investors freeze.
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In coming weeks, we will be offering to add a significant
amount of value…
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…for those who choose to accept it.
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We will be providing our Top Ten 2014 stock choices to all of those
who watch this video and make sure to provide us their email and contact
data.
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It is free to you….as our way of building trust.
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…or should we say rebuilding the trust
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you may have lost in the markets over the last decade or so….
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A Key Word: Participate
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A Key Question: Will you Participate?
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Your Choice:
One can Participate in the end of the world garbage…
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Our view is…the markets are like a good college
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…the difference?
You can take the same class and learn the same lesson over and
over again…..
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And you can spend as much as you would like to do so….The market will not care.
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Don’t let the lessons of the latest “lost decade” go to waste….
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We are confident some of the greatest opportunities of our
lifetimes are just ahead…..
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They will arise only to those who are prepared, properly
focused, well disciplined and are following their plan.
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Emotions are critical…The coaching process is critical…
Independence is critical.Staying on your path is the key.
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We hope you have enjoyed this overview.
Our hope is that we are able to earn your trust over time.
Make sure you provide us that email as there is much more to come!
One more thing…
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For a confidential review about your goals,call us at 312-957-2400 or visit us on the web at:
www.genesisam.com
You can email us at [email protected]
The only bad question is the one you don’t ask.