Who is this?

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Who is this?

Hans von Storch (born 1949)

Director of Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, near Hamburg,

Professor at the Meteorological Institute of Hamburg University

Works also with social and cultural scientists.

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Regional climate knowledge for society

Hans von StorchInstitute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Center Geesthacht,

and KlimaCampus Hamburg; Germany

26-27 Mai 2011 - ESPI Workshop Remote Sensing regional climate change - potentials and options to adapt, Wien

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Global temperature derived from thermometer data (CRU)

The IPCC consensus

4 IPCC 2007

Additional ly man-made factors

Only natural factors

„observations“

Explaining global mean surface air temperature

The IPCC consensus

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Scenarios, not predictions

The IPCC consensus

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The IPCC consensus

Mission: determine present status of scientific knowledge, and its consensus – not: discover “truth” about climate change

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The IPCC

- is needed as an impartial institution to provide relevant knowledge for decision makers.

- has documented strong consensual evidence that the human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the past, and foreseeable future has, and will continue to warm the climate system.

- most of this warming can not be explained without the increase in GHG concentrations – with the present knowledge.

The IPCC consensus

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Climate science informs climate policy about needs, options and measures.

In doing so, there is a need for knowledge abut climate dynamics, climate perspectives, impacts, vulnerabilities and the efficiency of measures (for mitigation and adaptation).

This process may be called “Climate Service”. For the global and for the regional stage, different stakeholders are relevant.

When dealing the national and international dimension a significant component deals with mitigation, and global and superregional issues. This is Global Climate Service.

When dealing with regional (state-level, municipalities, sectors), adaptation is most often priority, and the process is called Regional Climate Service.

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A „linear model“-framework of how to think about response strategies(Hasselmann, 1990)

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Constructions

• Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“.

• One construction is scientific, i.e. an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories.

• The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media.

• Climate science is in a post-normal phase (where interest-led utility is a significant driver, and less so “normal” curiosity)

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Is scientific knowledge driving the policy process?

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Postnormal science

Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier

State of science, when facts uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent.

In this state, science is not done for reasons for curiosity but is asked for as support for preconceived value-based agendas.

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Two different construction of „climate change“ – scientific and cultural – which is more powerful?

Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“

Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some

extent but not completely avoided

Extreme monthly rainfall amounts

Temperature

SE Austria

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• The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of „knowledge speaks to power“.

• The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated.• Science has failed to respond to legitimate public questions

and has instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”. • The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted

on the „explanation marked“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition.

• The social process „science“ is influenced by these other knowledge forms.

Knowledge market

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Which alternative knowledge claims?

- skeptics- political interests (e.g., deniers, alarmists)- climatic determinism- religion- others

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Non-representative survey on Klimazwiebel-blog done by Rob Maris with the help of Peter Heller

„Skeptics“

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Distribution of civilizations in early 20th century

(expert map)

Climatically determined „energy“ of people

“Man lives in balance with his climate”

Huntington, 1916

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Regional Climate service comprises …1. Analysis of cultural construct, including

common exaggeration in the media.

- Determination of response options on the local and regional scale: mainly adaptation but also regional and local mitigation.

- Dialogue of stakeholders and climate knowledge brokers in „Klimabureaus“.

2. Analysis of consensus on relevant issues (climate consensus reports).

3. Description of recent and present changes.

- Projection of possible future changes, which are dynamically consistent and possible („scenarios“)

4. Direct exchange and discussion about climate science and climate policy with individuals via weblog.

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North German Climate Office@HZG

An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders

• that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders

• that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits.

Typical stakeholders: Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy), tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning

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Raw data from 12 regional climate projectionsAnalyzed for Northern Germany and the Odra estuary regionInteractive user interface

„Klimaatlas“http://www.norddeutscher-klimaatlas.de

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Local scenarios

tmp annual precip sum m er precip winter wind summ er wind winter

0

2

4

6degree

-40

0

40

80

%

Minimum and maximum expected changes for the Odra Estuary region in 2070-210,

according to "Klimaatlas"

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An effort to establish which scientifically legitimized knowledge about anthropogenic climate change is available for the Baltic Sea catchment.

Approximately 80 scientist from 10 countries have documented and assessed the published knowledge.

The assessment has been accepted by the inter-governmental HELCOM commission as a basis for its future deliberations.

For 2013 the publication of a second assessment report (BACC II) is planned.

climate consensus reports

The Climate Change Assessment: Report for the Baltic Sea catchment - BACC

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Climate assessment for the metropolitan region of Hamburg

In 2007-2010 a climate assessment report about the scientifically documented knowledge of climate change in the region of Hamburg has been prepared – an activity of the Climate Center of Excellence CLISAP at the University of Hamburg, jointly operated with HZG and MPI.

The effort is supported by the Senate of Hamburg and by the Environmental Ministry of Schleswig Holstein.

climate consensus reports

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Globale development(NCEP)

Dynamical downscalingREMO or CLM

Simulation with barotropicmodel of Noth Sea

Empirical downscaling

Pegel St. Pauli

Cooperation with a variety of governmental agencies and with a number of private companies

Regional and local conditions – in the recent past and next century?

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GKSS in GeesthachtThe CoastDat data set:• Long (50 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe• Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions• extension – ecological variables, Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea

Clients:• Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic• Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy)• General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change

www.coastdat.de

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Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]

Currents Power [W/m2]

Some applications of

- Ship design- Navigational safety- Offshore wind- Interpretation of measurements- Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution- Ocean energy- Scenarios of storm surge conditions- Scenarios of future wave conditions

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The availability of knowledge about ongoing change, during the past few decades, and of possible future conditions allows an assessment, whether the „presence is (already) the harbinger of the future“.

GPCP based sliding 3-month window trends of precipitation over the land and sea of Mediterranean derived over the period from 1979 to 2008 in comparison with anthropogenic signals derived from a regional model. The vertical axes shows area mean changes of precipitation (mm decade-1). The red whiskers indicate 90% confidence interval of observed trends. The black bars are projected large-scale precipitation, the green bars convective precipitation and the purple bars indicate snow fall.

Barkhordarian and von Storch, ongoing work

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Task of science is

• to offer explanation for a complex world, its dynamics, links and dependencies.

• but not to derive what needs to be done, but what can be done.

• establish measures to establish quality of science by insisting on scientific method (cf. Merton‘s CUDOS).

• The capital of science is not the utility of the scientific findings but the methodology used to obtain such findings.

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Merton‘s CUDOS• Communalism: the common ownership of scientific

discoveries, according to which scientists give up intellectual property rights in exchange for recognition and esteem.

• Universalism: according to which claims to truth are evaluated in terms of universal or impersonal criteria, and not on the basis of race, class, gender, religion, or nationality.

• Disinterestedness: scientists, when presenting their work publicly, should do so without any prejudice or personal values and do so in an impersonal manner.

• Organized skepticism: all ideas must be tested and are subject to rigorous, structured community (peer review) scrutiny.

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Take home

• Societal service of science is the provision of explanation of complex phenomena, using the scientific methodology a la Merton (CUDOS).

• Climate science operates in a post-normal situation, which goes along with a tendency of policizing science, and scientizing politics. Cultural science need to support climate science to deal with this challenge.

• Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which includes the establishment of a dialogue with the public (direct or via media) and stakeholders –recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the issue.

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I wish you a good

summer!