Who funds consumption across Canadian Regions ......1 Who funds consumption across Canadian Regions? Leveraging age-based National Transfer Accounts to evaluate the role of the family,
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1
Who funds consumption across Canadian Regions? Leveraging age-based
National Transfer Accounts to evaluate the role of the family, the State,
and individual resources
Authors:
- Julien Navaux, Department of Economics, University of Ottawa.
Room 5033, FSS building, 120 university private K1N 6N5 ON, Ottawa, Canada
level of health care consumption by seniors seems to be a feature of the health care system in
North America. Indeed, Donehower et al. (2011) report the same exponential trend of health care
consumption for seniors in the United States although the rise results mostly from private health
care consumption. While the consumption profile across ages is similar in Canada in both years,
levels differ significantly across regions in both years. In the Prairies for instance, the level was in
the middle of the pack in 1997. In 2013, however, that level is much higher than the Canadian
average since each resident of the Prairies spent 11.3% more on consumption than the Canadian
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average ($42,271 vs $37,967). Consumption in the Atlantic also significantly improves with
respect to the Canadian average between 1997 and 2013. Per capita consumption in Ontario and
British Columbia remain close to the Canadian average in both years. In Quebec, the consumption
level declines substantially with respect to the Canadian average: In 1993, consumption was at
$34,143 in Quebec, which is as much as 10.1% lower than the Canadian average. One clear feature
of Figure 1 is the increase in the differences across regions in the per capita level of consumption
between 1997 and 2013. Indeed, the gap between the highest and the lowest consumption levels
widens substantially between 1997 and 2013. If this trend continues, one can expect a mounting
demand for interregional transfers and hence more pressure on the Canadian federation.
Figure 1. Per capita age profiles of Consumption in 1997 and 2013 (constant 2013 Canadian dollars, thousands)
Sources: Survey of Household Spending, National Health Expenditure Trends (Canadian Institute for Health Information), number of students in public elementary and secondary schools, postsecondary enrolments (Statistics Canada), National Accounts and calculations by the authors.
Figure 2 reports (real) per capita consumption trends between 1997 and 2013 in Canada and its
five regions for three different age groups: youth (aged 0-24), middle-aged (aged 25-64), and
seniors (aged 65+). The age limits of these three age groups correspond to the ages when
individual resources begin or cease to be greater than total consumptioniv.
In Canada, per capita consumption increases by over 30% between 1997 and 2013. That increase
is slightly more beneficial for youth than for the other two age groups, with respective percentage
increases of 34.1%, 30.3%, and 31.3% for the youth, middle-aged and senior groups. Note that
the small distortion in the trend is caused by the 2008 economic crisis. In fact, the pace of the
increase was similar across the three age groups from 1997 to 2007, but slightly faster for youth
and the middle-aged at 25.4% and 23.4 % respectively, whereas the rise of consumption for
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
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1997
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Canada Atlantic provinces Quebec Ontario Prairies British Columbia
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seniors was only 22.2%.v The per capita consumption across age groups in Canada differs from
observations in other countries. In France for instance, between 1997 and 2007, per capita
consumption at age 65+ increases by 27.6%, while at age 0-24 and age 25-64 it increases by only
16% and 20.5%, respectively.vi The slight distortion of consumption between age groups in
Canada, therefore, has nothing to do with the greater imbalance observed in France. In Canada
after 2010, the increase of per capita consumption relative to 1997 converges again across age
groups. Note again the sharp contrast with France, where consumption increases vigorously
between 1997 and 2011 for seniors (+29.7% for age 65+, but only +15.8% for youth), as reported
by data from dβAlbis et al. (2017).
The evolution of per capita consumption across the three age groups differs across Canadian
regions, as reported in Figure 2. In the Atlantic, the Prairies, and British Columbia, the trend of
per capita consumption over the period of 1997-2013 increases at a comparable pace for the
three age groups, even though the 2008 crisis introduced a bias in favor of youth in the Atlantic
region and in favor of seniors in the Prairies. In Quebec and Ontario, the story is quite different.
In Quebec, per capita consumption increased more rapidly for youth, and this gap between the
youth group and the middle-aged and senior groups continuously widened over the 17-year
period. From 1997 to 2013, consumption increases by 30.8% for youth while it increases only by
23.5% for the middle-aged, and by 20.5% for seniors.vii In Ontario, after a similar increase of
consumption for each age group between 1997 and 2000, consumption increases more rapidly
between 2001 and 2009 for seniors than for the middle-aged and youth groups. Thereafter,
consumption of youth and seniors remains greater than for the middle-aged group. Overall in
Ontario, from 1997 to 2013, consumption increases by 31.8% for youth and by 31.1% for seniors,
while it increases only by 24.9% for the middle-aged group.
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Figure 2. Real per capita level of consumption by age group (base 1 in 1997)
Sources: Survey of Household Spending, National Health Expenditure Trends (Canadian Institute for Health Information), number of students in public elementary and secondary schools, postsecondary enrolments (Statistics Canada), National Accounts and calculations by the authors.
3. The financial sources of consumption for youth and seniors
Figures 3 and 4 introduce the relative weight of Individual, State, and Family funding sources of
consumption for dependent age groups (youth (0-24) and seniors (65+)). Before investigating
results for Canada, notice that a similar exercise had been conducted for France. The greater
increase in consumption evidenced in seniors between 1979 and 2011 by dβAlbis et al. (2017) was
funded by Individual resources, due to an increase in asset income (dβAlbis et al., 2018). This
section examines the case of Canada and further investigate the rapid growth of consumption for
youth in Quebec and for youth and seniors in Ontario.
In Canada, the percentage of consumption at age 65+ financed by the Individual, the State, and
the Family remains remarkably stable between 1997 and 2013 at 46%, 55%, and -1% respectively.
The β1% signals a net transfer from seniors to youth. For youth, the percentage from the State
increases from 31% in 1997 to 34% in 2013, while the share from Family decreases from 38% to
31% and the share from Individuals increases from 32% to 35%. The results reported in Figure 3
0,91,01,11,21,31,41,51,6
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Canada
0,91,01,11,21,31,41,51,6
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97
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Atlantic provinces
0,91,01,11,21,31,41,51,6
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97
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92
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Quebec
0,91,01,11,21,31,41,51,6
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01
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Ontario
0,91,01,11,21,31,41,51,6
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00
32
00
52
00
72
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Prairies
0,91,01,11,21,31,41,51,6
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97
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92
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British Columbia
0-24 yo 25-64 yo 65+ yo
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show a shift in the funding of consumption for the youth groups. While the main provider was
the Family in 1997, the State and the Individual were sharing that burden in 2013 at 34% and 35%
respectively. The balance between the Individual, the State, and the Family in Canada is very
different from other countries investigated by dβAlbis et al. (2018). None of the seven countries
analyzed by the latter authors (China, France, Germany, Japan, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and
the United States) show a prevalence of Individual resources to finance the consumption of the
0-24 age group: The State is the most important source of funding in France, and in other
countries, funding from Family dominates State and Individual sources. The uniqueness of Canada
seems to be a blend of the French, British and American systems. Family funding in Canada is
comparable to the French system (36% in France versus 31% in Canada). State funding is similar
to that of the United States (35% in the US versus 34% in Canada). Individual resources in Canada
are slightly higher than the United Kingdomβs share in total consumption (29% in UK versus 35%
in Canada).
For seniors in Ontario, the funding from the State increases regularly from 1997 to 2013 and
coincides perfectly with the increasing trend of per capita consumption at age 65+ (Figure 3). The
State share increases from 35% in 1997 to 38% in 2005, and then increases further to 41% in 2013.
No such trend are observed in other regions where funding from the State remains either
relatively stable between 1997 and 2013 (+1 point of percentage in Quebec) or decreases during
the same period (- 7 points in the Atlantic provinces, -3 points in the Prairies and -8 points in
British Columbia).
The dynamics observed in Figure 3 also shed a light on the quicker increase of consumption for
youth in Quebec and Ontario. First, in all regions there exists a decrease of Family-sourced funding
in contrast to an increase of Individual-sourced funding. The size of the decline of Family-sourced
funding is similar across regions as the share of private transfers in consumption decreased by 6
percentage points in Ontario and by 7 percentage points in all other regions. The increase in
Individual-sourced funding is quite different across Canadian regions. In the Atlantic, the Prairies
and British Columbia, the percentage of consumption financed by the Individual increased
significantly: by +8 points in the Atlantic and British Columbia and by +6 points in the Prairies. In
Quebec and Ontario, a much smaller increase is observed: respectively +2 points and +1 point.
14
This weak increase in the percentage of funding for youth from Individual sources in Quebec and
in Ontario is the result of a substantial increase in State-sourced funding. Between 1997 and 2004
in Quebec, the percentage of consumption funded by the State remains stable at around 32%.
From 2004 to 2009, the percentage of consumption funded by the State increases from 32% to
42%, likely due to the substantial increase in the number of places available in subsidized daycare
facilities (Couturier & Hurteau, 2016). As evidenced in appendix B online, public cash transfer
inflows include child benefits that NTA methodology attributes to the children. In Quebec, the
percentage of public cash transfers in total consumption is equal to 9% in 2004, but increases to
12.9% in 2005, and then rises at a slower pace to reach 14.1% in 2009. Thereafter, the share of
public cash transfers in consumption slowly decreases to 11.2% in 2012 and 11.6% in 2013, which
leads to a decrease of the total share of the State in consumption from 42% in 2009 to 40% in
2013. The decrease of State-sourced funding of consumption coincides with an increase in the
For youth in Ontario, the funding sourced from the State follows four distinct periods over fifteen
years. From 1997 to 2004, the State share fell slowly from 28% in 1997 to 27% in 2004. From 2005
to 2008, the State share increased to 31% and then rose abruptly to 36% in 2009, a year after the
2008 crisis. This sudden rise results from an increase in cash transfers (6.7% of consumption in
2008 and 7.8% of consumption in 2009), an increase in public education expenditures (23.8% in
2008 and 25.4% in 2009) and a decrease in public savings from 0.5% in 2008 to -1.2% in 2009.
After 2009, the State-sourced percentage of consumption fell slowly, down to 32% in 2012 and
33% in 2013. Over a period of nine years, consumption funding by the State increased by 6
percentage points from 2004 (27%) to 2013 (33%), which coincides precisely with the greater
increase in per capita consumption by youth (0-24) in comparison with the middle-aged (25-64).
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Figure 3. Sources of public funding for consumption before 25 years old, Canada and Canadian provinces between 1997 and 2013
Sources: Survey of Household Spending, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, Canadian Income Survey, National Health Expenditure Trends (Canadian Institute for Health Information), number of students in public elementary and secondary schools, postsecondary enrolments (Statistics Canada), National Accounts and calculations by the authors.
Figure 4. Sources of public funding for consumption after 64 years old, Canada and Canadian provinces between 1997 and 2013
0%
20%
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100%
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Canada
0%
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Atlantic provinces
0%
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Quebec
0%
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920
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Ontario
0%
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Prairies
0%
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British Columbia
The Family Individual resources The State
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Canada
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
201
3
Atlantic provinces
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
1997
1999
2001
2003
200
520
0720
0920
1120
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Quebec
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Ontario
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Prairies
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
1997
1999
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2005
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2011
2013
British Columbia
The Family Individual resources The State
16
Sources: Survey of Household Spending, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, Canadian Income Survey, National Health Expenditure Trends (Canadian Institute for Health Information), number of students in public elementary and secondary schools, postsecondary enrolments (Statistics Canada), National Accounts and calculations by the authors.
4. Consumption and transfers to and from middle-aged groups
Section 3 demonstrates the significant role of the State in the rapid increase of per capita
consumption by dependent age groups (youth (0-24) and seniors (65+)) in Ontario and in Quebec.
Consumption exceeding Individual resources for youth and seniors likely put pressure on transfers
funded by the middle-aged (25-64).
Figure 5 reports the use of funding from Individual sources (labour income and asset income net
of private saving) of the middle-aged group between 1997 and 2013. The funding from Individual
sources serves to finance consumption, but also contributes to the transfers of the State and
Family. Figure 5 evidences that in most of the regions of Canada studied, the share of Individual
resources dedicated to consumption equals at least 60%. This share even increased in most of the
regions between 1997 and 2013. Consequently, the share of transfers to youth and seniors
sourced through the State and through the Family decreased in most of the regions of Canada
during the same period.viii In Canada, on average, the share of Individual resources dedicated to
Family transfers decreases from 13% in 1997 to 10% in 2013, while the share of Individual
resources dedicated to transfers through the State decreases from 24% in 1997 to 21% in 2013.
In Quebec, it decreases from 23% in 1997 to 20% in 2013. Ontario converges to Quebecβs position
given that the share of Individual resources dedicated to transfers through the State decreased
from 26% in 1997 to 20% in 2013. The middle-aged groups in Ontario and Quebec also contribute
less through the family transfer system (decreasing from 16% to 14% in Ontario and from 12% to
8% in Quebec).
In other words, dependent age groups receive larger public transfers in Quebec and in Ontario.
At the same time, the middle-aged groups make fewer and fewer public transfers to youth and
seniors in Quebec and in Ontario, but also in the Atlantic region where the share of Individual
resources dedicated to transfers through the State decreased from 13% in 1997 to 11% in 2013,
and in British Columbia where this share decreased from 28% to 22%. The Prairies are unique in
Canada as the only region where the share of individual resources transferred to other age groups
through the state increased between 1997 (23%) and 2013 (25%).ix
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On an aggregate basis, in Ontario, the ratio of public transfer outflows over public transfer inflows
decline due to the increased allocation of public transfers to youth and seniors and the decrease
in public transfers made by the middle-aged. In 1997, aggregate public transfer outflows were
10% higher than public transfer inflows, which means than Ontarian taxpayers transferred a
significant part of their tax payments and social contributions to other provinces. In 2013, the
same ratio was equal to only 2%. Still, this means that Ontarians transfer a net positive value to
other provinces, although their capacity to transfer substantial resources to other provinces has
been reduced significantly.
In Quebec, despite the increasing role of the State for ages 0-24 and the regression of the net
transfers generated by middle-aged individuals, the ratio between public transfer outflows and
inflows remains stable between 1997 and 2013. In 1997, the public transfer outflows were 8%
lower than inflows. This ratio decreases only slightly in 2013 since public transfer outflows were
9% lower than inflows. In fact, the State share increases for youth in Quebec, but the ratio
between the number of youth and the number of middle-aged people decreases significantly
from 1997 to 2013, due to a low fertility rate and a high level of immigration in the middle-aged
group.x In 1997, the ratio between the numbers of youth and middle-aged individuals was equal
to 0.58. The ratio declines to 0.52 in 2005 and 0.50 in 2013. In Quebec, it appears that the choice
was made to use the low fertility rate as an opportunity to invest more in childcare.
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Figure 5. Use of individual resources between 25 and 64 years old, Canada and Canadian provinces between 1997 and 2013
Sources: Survey of Household Spending, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, Canadian Income Survey, National Health Expenditure Trends (Canadian Institute for Health Information), number of students in public elementary and secondary schools, postsecondary enrolments (Statistics Canada), National Accounts and calculations by the authors.
Conclusion
This article provides the theoretical framework for NTA on a subnational basis. This new
methodology is applied to the five Canadian regions studied for every year between 1997 and
2013. Using the new dataset and NTA subnational methodology, the article evidences which age
groups benefited the most from the general increase in consumption. Then, the role of the
Individual, the State, and the Family for funding the imbalance of consumption across regions and
age groups is investigated.
The four most important results are the following. First, despite a rise in the levels of consumption
in all regions, differences in per capita consumption across regions are increasing in Canada.
Second, per capita consumption of dependent-aged individuals increased markedly in Quebec
(youth only) and in Ontario (youth and seniors) compared to the middle-aged populations. Third,
the funding of that consumption has been covered by more public transfers from the federal and
provincial governments. Fourth, in most regions studied, middle-aged individuals decreased the
0%
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Canada
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3
Atlantic provinces
0%
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Quebec
0%
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Ontario
0%
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Prairies
0%
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120%
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3
British Columbia
The Family The State Consumption
19
share of their individual resources that they transfer through the public system to youth and
seniors on a per capita basis.
It might be puzzling to see increased public transfers alongside declining middle-age tax and social
contributions to the State. The main explanation for this apparent incompatibility is the structure
of the population by age in Canada and in the Canadian provinces. In Canada, the inverted
demographic support ratio that is defined as the sum of people aged 0-24 and 65+ divided by the
sum of people aged 25-64 decreased continuously to arrive at 0.79 in 2010 (Statistics Canada).
This ratio was equal to 0.84 in 1997 and 0.81 in 2003. After the reversal point of 2010, the ratio
grew to 0.8 in 2012, 0.83 in 2018 and should reach a perfect equality between working (middle-
aged) and non-working (youth and senior) age groups in 2029. The ratio should continue
thereafter to rise up to 1.09 in 2063.
In view of the inverted demographic support ratio, Canada benefited from a demographic
dividend, thanks to the large size of its middle-aged group. This first demographic dividend ended
around 2010. After 2010, the percentage of people aged 65+ rises sharply. From 14% of the
Canadian population in 2013, it is projected to reach 24% by 2038 (Statistics Canada). The
population aging process is significant enough everywhere in Canada to exert pressure on the
local public transfer system. Moreover, the difference in pace and intensity of population aging
across regions will also exert pressure on the inter-regional resource transfer system within the
federation.
20
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Notes i Note that NTA became part of the official statistics of South Korea in January 2019. ii Authorsβ calculations from Statistics Canada. iii Excluding bequests as prescribed by the NTA methodology. iv The first age at which individual resources are greater than total consumption is 25 years in 1997 and 2013. The last age with individual resources > total consumption is 63 years in 1997 and 2013. v This is in stark contrast with the case of France, where between 1997 and 2007, per capita consumption increases strongly between 1997 and 2011 for seniors (+29.7% for age 65+, but only +15.8% for youth), as reported by dβAlbis et al. (2017). vi Indicators for France are calculated from the database of dβAlbis et al. (2017) published online at ctn.site.ined.fr/en. vii Interestingly, the trends in Quebec and France went in opposite directions: Quebec favoured youth whereas seniors benefited more from the rise in consumption in France (+15.8% for youth and +29.7% for seniors). viii One notable exception are the Prairies where the share of transfers generated by people aged 25-64 through the State increased from 23% in 1997 to 25% in 2013. ix Note that the results are similar when looking at the use of gross individual resources, i.e. labour and private asset income, without deducting private savings. In Canada, the share of labour and asset income dedicated to the State decreased by 4% in Canada, by 2% in the Atlantic provinces, by 4% in Quebec, by 5% in Ontario, by 7% in British Columbia and remained stable in the Prairies. x In 2013, the total fertility rate was equal to 1.65 in Quebec (Statistics Canada, table 13-10-0418-01). In 2013-2014, from a total of 51,697 new immigrants in Quebec, 26,855 were aged 25-39, which represents more than the half of immigration flows. The same year, the middle-aged group, aged 25-64, accounted for two-thirds of immigration flows (34,140 individuals). The same year, individuals aged 0-24 accounted only for 32.1% of the total number of immigrants in Quebec (Statistics Canada, table 17-10-0014-01).