White Flight in England? Opposition to Diversity and Mobility Decisions in Britain, 1991-2012 Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College [email protected]; [email protected]http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whit eworkingclass twitter: @epkaufm
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White Flight in England? Opposition to Diversity and Mobility Decisions in Britain, 1991-2012 Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College [email protected]@bbk.ac.uk;
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White Flight in England?
Opposition to Diversity and Mobility Decisions in Britain, 1991-2012
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000Change in minority population in ward 2001-11
White British Change and Minority Change, London, 2001-11
Save our Census!• The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the
Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/K000365/1). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data.
• Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.
• The results presented are based on a test version of the LS database incorporating 2011 Census data. Figures may be subject to change when the final version of this database is released in November 2013.
Predicted Ward Minority Change among Inter-ward Movers, 1991-2011 (BHPS/UKHLS)
• “If the church bulletin board is where people advertise rooms for rent, blacks will rent rooms from blacks and whites from whites because of a communication system…correlated with color” – Thomas Schelling 1978
• White British family/friend/association networks and minority networks differ in England, affecting where people relocate once they decide to move
• Cultural amenities (food, recreation, religion) are also correlated with ethnic composition
Unconscious Segregation I: Social Ties
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Change in distance from mother and share of minori-ties in ward post-move, white British,
2009-12
Chan
ge in
% m
inor
ities
in w
ard
after
m
ove
Change in distance from mother (in scale points). Negative values repres-ent move toward, positive away from, mother
Source: UKHLS 2009-12
Unconscious Segregation II: Amenities
Whitest
wards
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Least white wards
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
'Very important' to self-identity, minority respondents,
by ward minority share, 2007-11
Ethnicity
Religion
% sa
ying
'ver
y im
port
ant'
for i
denti
ty
Whitest
wards
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Least white wards
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
'Very important' for self-identity, white British, by ward diversity,
2007-11
Neighbourhood
Religion
% sa
ying
'ver
y im
port
ant'
for i
denti
ty
Source: Citizenship Surveys 2007-11
Future Research
• Look at individual ethnic minorities to screen out friends & family effect
• Each ethnic group is relatively attracted to own area, i.e. Caribbeans to Caribbean areas, but white/minority appears to remain important