Published on The Institute for Government (https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk ) Home > Scottish independence Scottish independence Why are people talking about Scottish independence? The issue of Scottish independence remains at the centre of political debate in Scotland, seven years after Scotland first voted on the question of independence. The Scottish electorate rejected independence by a margin of 55% to 45% in a referendum held on 18 September 2014. The independence question rose back up the agenda as a result of the EU referendum in June 2016, at which 62% of Scottish voters cast their ballots in favour of Remain. In its manifesto for the 2016 Scottish parliament elections, which took place shortly before the EU referendum, the SNP had argued that “Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will” would justify a second vote on independence. This has remained at the core of the SNP argument in favour of a referendum since 2016. The SNP's 2019 UK general election manifesto called for a second referendum to be held in 2020. After winning 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats, Nicola Sturgeon formally requested the power to hold such a referendum, but Boris Johnson refused, arguing that key pro-independence figures had said that the 2014 referendum was a “once in a generation opportunity”, so there was no case for the issue to be revisited. [1] Scottish independence was once again at the centre of debate in the May 2021 Scottish parliament election campaign. The election delivered a third successive pro-independence majority. The SNP and Scottish Greens, which both campaigned on a manifesto commitment to a second independence referendum, won 72 out of 129 seats. The Scottish government argues that this pro-independence majority provides a “cast-iron mandate” for a second referendum to now take place. [2] The UK government has held to the position that “now is not the time” for a second referendum. [3] Secretary of State for Scotland Alister Jack also suggested in September 2021 that a referendum should only be held if polls consistently found that 60% of Scots wanted this to happen. [4] Does the Scottish parliament have the power to hold another independence referendum? The legislative powers of the Scottish parliament are set out in the Scotland Act 1998. This legislation specifies that the Scottish parliament cannot pass legislation that relates to various “reserved” matters including “the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England”. [5] Although this has never been tested in court, this provision is widely interpreted to mean that the Scottish parliament could not hold a vote on independence without Westminster’s approval. In 2014, the power to hold the first referendum was transferred to the Scottish parliament after agreement on the terms of the vote was reached between the UK and Scottish governments. [6] Following this agreement, the UK parliament passed a piece of legislation called a ‘section 30 order’ – which gave the Scottish parliament the power to legislate for the referendum. This “put beyond doubt” the legality of the vote. Importantly, however, the power to hold a referendum was devolved on a temporary basis: the order specified that the vote must take place before 31 December 2014, following which the power expired. The Scottish government has never explicitly conceded that a referendum could not be held without Westminster’s authorisation. But its strong preference is to proceed with agreement as in 2014. In a roadmap published in January 2021, the SNP declared that “a referendum must be beyond legal challenge to ensure legitimacy and acceptance at home and abroad.” [7] If the Scottish parliament passed a referendum bill without Westminster agreement, the UK government would be likely to refer the bill to the UK Supreme Court. The court would assess whether the legislation “relates to” the union in terms of its “purpose and effect”. If it determined that the bill lay outside the powers of the Scottish parliament, then the legislation would not become law. The UK parliament could also, in principle, pass legislation to block any referendum from taking place, even if it were determined that the Scottish parliament does at present have the power to hold such a vote. What is the SNP’s plan for a second independence referendum? In March 2021, the Scottish government introduced a draft Independence Referendum Bill, which if enacted, would mandate a second vote on independence to be held. [8] In its May 2021 election manifesto, the SNP stated that it would seek to hold a referendum over the course of the parliament, but not until “the Covid crisis has passed”. [9] The party’s manifesto further stated that the Scottish government would “discuss with the UK government the necessary transfer of power to put a referendum beyond legal challenge.” [10] The implication is that the Scottish government will formally request that Westminster passes a section 30 order – or other legislation – that would empower Holyrood to hold a referendum. If that request were refused, then the SNP has previously stated that “if there is a parliamentary majority so to do, we will introduce and pass a bill so that the necessary arrangements for the referendum can be made and implemented”. [11] The SNP recognises that the UK government might refer the bill to the Supreme Court, and has underlined that “such a legal challenge would be vigorously opposed by an SNP Scottish Government.”’ [12] The SNP has not stated what its next move would be if the Supreme Court were to rule against it, and prevent a referendum from taking place. What rules would govern how an independence referendum would be held? If a second referendum is held, the Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020 would set the rules for holding the poll. The Act broadly replicates the legal framework for referendums held by the UK government, as set out in the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000. The Electoral Commission would be given a statutory role, overseeing the conduct of the poll and the regulation of referendum campaigners, including designating lead referendum campaigners and testing the “intelligibility” of the proposed referendum question. In its draft referendum bill, the Scottish government proposed using the same referendum question as the 2014 vote: “Should Scotland be an independent 1
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Published on The Institute for Government (https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk)Home > Scottish independence
Scottish independence
Why are people talking about Scottish independence?
The issue of Scottish independence remains at the centre of political debate in Scotland, seven years after Scotland first voted on the question ofindependence.
The Scottish electorate rejected independence by a margin of 55% to 45% in a referendum held on 18 September 2014.
The independence question rose back up the agenda as a result of the EU referendum in June 2016, at which 62% of Scottish voters cast their ballots infavour of Remain.
In its manifesto for the 2016 Scottish parliament elections, which took place shortly before the EU referendum, the SNP had argued that “Scotland beingtaken out of the EU against our will” would justify a second vote on independence. This has remained at the core of the SNP argument in favour of areferendum since 2016.
The SNP's 2019 UK general election manifesto called for a second referendum to be held in 2020. After winning 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats, Nicola Sturgeonformally requested the power to hold such a referendum, but Boris Johnson refused, arguing that key pro-independence figures had said that the 2014referendum was a “once in a generation opportunity”, so there was no case for the issue to be revisited.[1]
Scottish independence was once again at the centre of debate in the May 2021 Scottish parliament election campaign. The election delivered a thirdsuccessive pro-independence majority. The SNP and Scottish Greens, which both campaigned on a manifesto commitment to a second independencereferendum, won 72 out of 129 seats.
The Scottish government argues that this pro-independence majority provides a “cast-iron mandate” for a second referendum to now take place.[2]
The UK government has held to the position that “now is not the time” for a second referendum.[3] Secretary of State for Scotland Alister Jack also suggestedin September 2021 that a referendum should only be held if polls consistently found that 60% of Scots wanted this to happen.[4]
Does the Scottish parliament have the power to hold another independence referendum?
The legislative powers of the Scottish parliament are set out in the Scotland Act 1998. This legislation specifies that the Scottish parliament cannot passlegislation that relates to various “reserved” matters including “the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England”.[5] Although this has never been testedin court, this provision is widely interpreted to mean that the Scottish parliament could not hold a vote on independence without Westminster’s approval.
In 2014, the power to hold the first referendum was transferred to the Scottish parliament after agreement on the terms of the vote was reached betweenthe UK and Scottish governments.[6]
Following this agreement, the UK parliament passed a piece of legislation called a ‘section 30 order’ – which gave the Scottish parliament the power tolegislate for the referendum. This “put beyond doubt” the legality of the vote.
Importantly, however, the power to hold a referendum was devolved on a temporary basis: the order specified that the vote must take place before 31December 2014, following which the power expired.
The Scottish government has never explicitly conceded that a referendum could not be held without Westminster’s authorisation. But its strong preferenceis to proceed with agreement as in 2014. In a roadmap published in January 2021, the SNP declared that “a referendum must be beyond legal challenge toensure legitimacy and acceptance at home and abroad.”[7]
If the Scottish parliament passed a referendum bill without Westminster agreement, the UK government would be likely to refer the bill to the UK SupremeCourt. The court would assess whether the legislation “relates to” the union in terms of its “purpose and effect”. If it determined that the bill lay outside thepowers of the Scottish parliament, then the legislation would not become law.
The UK parliament could also, in principle, pass legislation to block any referendum from taking place, even if it were determined that the Scottishparliament does at present have the power to hold such a vote.
What is the SNP’s plan for a second independence referendum?
In March 2021, the Scottish government introduced a draft Independence Referendum Bill, which if enacted, would mandate a second vote on independenceto be held.[8]
In its May 2021 election manifesto, the SNP stated that it would seek to hold a referendum over the course of the parliament, but not until “the Covid crisishas passed”.[9]
The party’s manifesto further stated that the Scottish government would “discuss with the UK government the necessary transfer of power to put areferendum beyond legal challenge.”[10] The implication is that the Scottish government will formally request that Westminster passes a section 30 order –or other legislation – that would empower Holyrood to hold a referendum.
If that request were refused, then the SNP has previously stated that “if there is a parliamentary majority so to do, we will introduce and pass a bill so thatthe necessary arrangements for the referendum can be made and implemented”.[11]
The SNP recognises that the UK government might refer the bill to the Supreme Court, and has underlined that “such a legal challenge would be vigorouslyopposed by an SNP Scottish Government.”’[12]
The SNP has not stated what its next move would be if the Supreme Court were to rule against it, and prevent a referendum from taking place.
What rules would govern how an independence referendum would be held?
If a second referendum is held, the Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020 would set the rules for holding the poll. The Act broadly replicates the legal frameworkfor referendums held by the UK government, as set out in the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.
The Electoral Commission would be given a statutory role, overseeing the conduct of the poll and the regulation of referendum campaigners, includingdesignating lead referendum campaigners and testing the “intelligibility” of the proposed referendum question.
In its draft referendum bill, the Scottish government proposed using the same referendum question as the 2014 vote: “Should Scotland be an independent
1
country?” with Yes and No options on the ballot paper.[13]
The Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020 provides that the franchise for any future referendum held by the Scottish government (on any subject) will be thesame as the franchise for Scottish parliament elections.
Following changes introduced in the Scottish Elections (Franchise and Representation) Act 2020, this means that anyone aged 16 or over, who is legallyresident in Scotland regardless of nationality, and who is on the Scottish local government electoral register, would be entitled to vote.
The 2020 legislation also extended the right to vote to prisoners serving sentences of less than 12 months.
When could a second referendum on Scottish independence take place?
The Scottish government’s draft Independence Referendum Bill provides that the timing of a future referendum would be a matter for the Scottishparliament to decide.
After the May 2021 elections, Sturgeon told prime minister Boris Johnson that a second independence referendum was “a matter of when – not if”.[14] InSeptember 2021, the first minister said that her government intends to hold a referendum by the end of 2023, so long as the pandemic had been brought“under control” by that point.
Sturgeon also announced that a small team of Scottish government civil servants was resuming its planning for a referendum. Planning for a secondreferendum had been put on hold in 2020 following the coronavirus outbreak.
Even if the UK government accepted the principle of a second vote, it could impose constraints on when a referendum could be held.
The first independence referendum took place three years and four months after the SNP won a majority for independence, and in that case the UKgovernment immediately accepted the legitimacy of the SNP’s mandate.
Where do other Scottish parties stand on independence?
Other than the SNP, the only pro-independence party represented in the Scottish parliament is the Scottish Green Party. In May 2021, these two parties won72 seats in the 129-seat legislature, a three seat increase in the majority for independence on the 2016 result.
In August 2021, the SNP and the Scottish Greens announced a cooperation agreement, giving them a majority in the Scottish parliament. This agreementincluded a joint commitment to securing “Scotland’s future as an independent nation in its own right.”[15]
In their 2021 Scottish election manifestos, the Scottish Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties all reiterated their opposition to a secondindependence referendum.
Does the Scottish public support independence?
Opinion poll data shows that Scotland is almost evenly divided on the question of independence, with No narrowly ahead of Yes in most recent polls.
Immediately after the EU referendum, the polls indicated a swing towards support for independence. However, this support was not sustained, and mostpolls between 2016 and 2018] found that a narrow but clear majority would vote against independence.[16]
The polls then appeared to narrow throughout 2019 and the start of 2020, with polling experts citing Brexit as a key factor in the rise in support forindependence.[17]
After the start of the coronavirus pandemic, support for independence rose further, at a time when the Scottish government was perceived to have done abetter job than the UK government in responding to Covid. Most polls in 2020 and early 2021 showing a clear majority in favour of a Yes vote, including by arecord margin of 59% to 41% in an October 2020 Ipsos Mori poll.
2
However, as the 2021 Scottish election approached the polls narrowed again. In 10 polls conducted in the two weeks before the election, Yes was only aheadin one. Most polls conducted in summer and autumn 2021 have similarly found a narrow lead for No.
Percentage of people who would vote Yes in a second Scottish independence referendum (rolling average of previous three polls) (Updated: 23 September2021)
Percentage of people who would vote Yes in a second Scottish independence referendum (rolling average of previous three polls) (Updated: 17 Dec 2021) [2]
[3]
[4]
If Scotland voted Yes to independence, what would happen next? [5]
A Yes vote in a referendum accepted as legitimate by both sides would be followed by negotiations between the UK and Scottish governments on the termsof separation, including on how to divide the assets and liabilities of the UK state and on the future relationship between the two new countries.
The SNP plan is for an independent Scotland to re-join the EU. As the UK has already left the EU, an independent Scotland would need to apply to join underArticle 49 of the Treaty on European Union after first completing its separation from the rest of the UK. Re-entry would require accession negotiations andthe consent of all 27 EU member states.
An independent Scotland would also have to decide which currency to use. In May 2018, the SNP Sustainable Growth Commission recommended that anindependent Scotland should continue to use Sterling (without a formal monetary union) for a “possibly extended” transition period before introducing itsown currency.[18]
This would minimise disruption to trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK, but Scotland would be left without control of its own monetary policy,meaning it could not set interest rates or use quantitative easing to respond to economic shocks.
As a member of the EU, Scottish trade with the rest of the UK would be governed by the same rules as apply to trade between Great Britain and the EU. Thiswould create new barriers to trade across the Anglo-Scottish border.
An independent Scotland would also face difficult choices about spending priorities. Analysis by the Scottish government found that Scotland’s notionalgovernment deficit stood at 9% of GDP in 2019/20.[19] That meant that public spending per person in Scotland was around £2,700 higher than tax revenueper person.
1. Letter from PM Boris Johnson to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, 14 January2020, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/857586/Nicola_Sturgeon_20200114.pdf [6]
2. Sturgeon N ‘Nicola Sturgeon: Any attempt to block a second referendum would show the UK is no longer a partnership of equals’, Holyrood, 29 August2021, retrieved 23 September 2021, www.holyrood.com/comment/view,nicola-sturgeon-any-attempt-to-block-a-second-referendum-would-show-the-uk-is-no-longer-a-partners... [7]
3. Johnson S ‘Theresa May tells Nicola Sturgeon 'now is not the time' for second independence referendum’, 16 March 2017, retrieved 23 September2021, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/16/theresa-may-formally-rejects-nicola-sturgeons-timetable-second/ [8]
4. Pooran N and Miller D ‘Alister Jack says Scottish independence referendum could happen if polling shows 60% support’, 27 August 2021, retrieved 23September 2021, www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alister-jack-says-scottish-independence-referendum-could-happen-if-polling-shows-60-support-3361949 [9]
5. Scotland Act 1998, c.46, s56. ‘Agreement between the United Kingdom Government and the Scottish Government on a referendum for independence for Scotland’, 15, October
2012, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/313612/scottish_referendum_agree... [10]
7. Pooran N ‘SNP lays out ‘roadmap’ to second independence referendum ‘beyond legal challenge’’, 23 January 2021, retrieved 23 September 2021,www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/snp-independence-referendum-roadmap-b1791799.html [11]
8. Scottish Government, Draft Independence Referendum Bill, 22 March 2021, www.gov.scot/publications/draft-independence-referendum-bill/pages/5/ [12]
9. ‘Scotland’s Future’, Scottish National Party Manifesto, 2021, p.12, https://issuu.com/hinksbrandwise/docs/04_15_snp_manifesto_2021___a4_document?mode=window [13]
10. Ibid.11. Russell M, This is the SNP’s routemap to a Scottish independence referendum in full, The National, 23 January
2021, www.thenational.scot/news/19033561.snps-road-scottish-independence-referendum-plan-full/ [14]
12. Ibid.13. Scottish Government, Draft Independence Referendum Bill, 22 March 2021, www.gov.scot/publications/draft-independence-referendum-bill/pages/5/ [12]
14. BBC, ‘Nicola Sturgeon tells PM referendum is case of 'when - not if'’, 9 May 2021, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-57046408 [15]
15. ‘Draft cooperation agreement between the Scottish Government and the Scottish Green Party Parliamentary Group’, 25 August 2021,www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-government-and-scottish-green-party-cooperation-agreement/ [16]
16. What Scotland Thinks, How would you vote in a Scottish independence referendum if held now? (asked after the EU referendum), 24 June 2016–19 June3
2020, whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/#line17. Curtice J and Montagu I, Is Brexit fuelling support for independence?, What Scotland Thinks, https://whatscotlandthinks.org/wp-
content/uploads/2020/11/SSA-2019-Scotland-paper-v5.pdf [17]
18. The Sustainable Growth Commission, The Monetary Policy and Financial Regulation Framework for an Independent Scotland, May2018, https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5afc0bbbf79392ced8b73dbf/t/5b06e8a56d2a73f9e0305ad9/1527179438303/SGC+Part+C+Currency+Mon...[18]
19. Scottish Government, Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) 2019-2020, August 2020, www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers-2019-20/ [19]
Update date: Wednesday, September 29, 2021
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Links[1] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/file/indyref-polling-dec-2021png[2] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/charts/scottish-independence-referendum-polling[3] https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Percentage of people who would vote Yes in a second Scottish independence referendum (rolling average of previous three polls)&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instituteforgovernment.org.uk%2Fprintpdf%2F7015%23chart_1593620182&via=instituteforgov[4] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/chart-images/indyref-polling-dec-2021.png[5] http://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=If%20Scotland%20voted%20Yes%20to%20independence%2C%20what%20would%20happen%20next%3F[6] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/857586/Nicola_Sturgeon_20200114.pdf[7] http://www.holyrood.com/comment/view,nicola-sturgeon-any-attempt-to-block-a-second-referendum-would-show-the-uk-is-no-longer-a-partnership-of-equals-17719[8] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/16/theresa-may-formally-rejects-nicola-sturgeons-timetable-second/[9] http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alister-jack-says-scottish-independence-referendum-could-happen-if-polling-shows-60-support-3361949[10] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/313612/scottish_referendum_agreement.pdf[11] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/snp-independence-referendum-roadmap-b1791799.html[12] http://www.gov.scot/publications/draft-independence-referendum-bill/pages/5/[13] https://issuu.com/hinksbrandwise/docs/04_15_snp_manifesto_2021___a4_document?mode=window[14] http://www.thenational.scot/news/19033561.snps-road-scottish-independence-referendum-plan-full/[15] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-57046408[16] http://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-government-and-scottish-green-party-cooperation-agreement/[17] https://whatscotlandthinks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SSA-2019-Scotland-paper-v5.pdf[18] https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5afc0bbbf79392ced8b73dbf/t/5b06e8a56d2a73f9e0305ad9/1527179438303/SGC+Part+C+Currency+Monetary+Framework.pdf[19] http://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers-2019-20/
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